Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.7#91
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#127
Pace67.6#236
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#140
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#65
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 2.0% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.5% 17.2% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.7% 9.8% 3.1%
Average Seed 9.8 9.5 10.3
.500 or above 80.1% 89.9% 73.8%
.500 or above in Conference 69.0% 76.6% 64.2%
Conference Champion 6.2% 8.9% 4.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.5% 1.1%
First Four1.9% 2.9% 1.3%
First Round10.5% 15.7% 7.2%
Second Round4.1% 6.7% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 2.1% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi (Neutral) - 38.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 45 - 10
Quad 35 - 29 - 12
Quad 410 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 271   North Dakota W 82-56 91%     1 - 0 +17.1 -0.3 +15.9
  Nov 08, 2024 306   Tennessee St. W 87-79 OT 93%     2 - 0 -2.4 -3.9 +0.3
  Nov 12, 2024 309   Denver W 74-65 93%     3 - 0 -1.8 -3.9 +2.3
  Nov 16, 2024 61   Mississippi L 67-70 39%    
  Nov 22, 2024 155   UC Riverside W 75-67 77%    
  Nov 28, 2024 79   Washington L 70-72 44%    
  Dec 04, 2024 164   Loyola Marymount W 71-62 78%    
  Dec 07, 2024 76   @ Colorado L 66-71 33%    
  Dec 14, 2024 54   Virginia Commonwealth L 65-69 37%    
  Dec 17, 2024 254   Radford W 76-63 88%    
  Dec 21, 2024 46   @ Nevada L 64-71 26%    
  Dec 28, 2024 56   New Mexico L 79-80 49%    
  Dec 31, 2024 251   @ San Jose St. W 71-64 74%    
  Jan 07, 2025 234   Fresno St. W 78-66 85%    
  Jan 11, 2025 94   UNLV W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 14, 2025 55   @ San Diego St. L 61-68 29%    
  Jan 18, 2025 196   @ Wyoming W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 22, 2025 47   Boise St. L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 234   @ Fresno St. W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 28, 2025 286   Air Force W 72-57 91%    
  Feb 05, 2025 56   @ New Mexico L 76-82 30%    
  Feb 08, 2025 55   San Diego St. L 64-65 48%    
  Feb 11, 2025 43   @ Utah St. L 69-77 25%    
  Feb 15, 2025 196   Wyoming W 75-64 81%    
  Feb 18, 2025 46   Nevada L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 22, 2025 94   @ UNLV L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 25, 2025 286   @ Air Force W 69-60 79%    
  Mar 01, 2025 43   Utah St. L 72-74 44%    
  Mar 04, 2025 251   San Jose St. W 74-61 86%    
  Mar 07, 2025 47   @ Boise St. L 65-72 27%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 6.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 2.4 3.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.6 4.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.9 4.6 1.5 0.1 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.4 5.2 1.6 0.1 15.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.8 6.0 4.5 1.2 0.1 16.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.5 5.2 2.9 0.8 0.0 15.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.8 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.5 5.6 7.9 10.4 11.8 12.5 12.5 10.6 8.6 5.9 3.9 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 97.7% 0.9    0.8 0.1
17-3 82.5% 1.6    1.1 0.5 0.0
16-4 52.2% 2.0    0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0
15-5 17.3% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.2% 6.2 3.3 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 98.9% 42.1% 56.8% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.2%
18-2 0.9% 87.1% 37.5% 49.6% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 79.4%
17-3 1.9% 75.9% 29.6% 46.4% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 65.9%
16-4 3.9% 58.5% 22.0% 36.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.6 46.8%
15-5 5.9% 36.8% 16.2% 20.6% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.2 3.7 24.6%
14-6 8.6% 20.6% 12.1% 8.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 6.8 9.7%
13-7 10.6% 9.5% 7.0% 2.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 9.6 2.7%
12-8 12.5% 5.9% 5.0% 0.9% 11.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 11.8 0.9%
11-9 12.5% 3.6% 3.5% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 12.0 0.1%
10-10 11.8% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.6 0.0%
9-11 10.4% 1.4% 1.4% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.2
8-12 7.9% 0.3% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9
7-13 5.6% 0.4% 0.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6
6-14 3.5% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 3.5
5-15 2.1% 2.1
4-16 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 11.5% 6.2% 5.3% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.0 3.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.5 5.7%