Nevada
Mountain West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.1#68
Expected Predictive Rating+5.1#98
Pace61.3#346
Improvement-5.7#356

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#67
First Shot+5.1#54
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#242
Layup/Dunks+0.0#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#30
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#155
Freethrows+1.2#106
Improvement-3.5#339

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#77
First Shot+2.0#113
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#52
Layups/Dunks+3.7#55
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#217
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#240
Freethrows-0.5#219
Improvement-2.2#295
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.9% 17.5% 9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.0% 6.2% 1.7%
Average Seed 10.9 10.5 11.2
.500 or above 95.2% 99.0% 93.5%
.500 or above in Conference 70.2% 86.0% 63.2%
Conference Champion 0.8% 2.3% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.0% 3.4% 1.3%
First Round11.0% 15.8% 8.9%
Second Round3.2% 5.1% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.0% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Away) - 30.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 4
Quad 24 - 56 - 9
Quad 36 - 412 - 13
Quad 48 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 170   Sam Houston St. W 91-75 85%     1 - 0 +12.9 +16.2 -3.1
  Nov 09, 2024 95   Washington W 63-53 68%     2 - 0 +13.2 -2.8 +16.7
  Nov 13, 2024 237   Weber St. W 88-58 91%     3 - 0 +22.9 +17.7 +7.9
  Nov 16, 2024 67   Santa Clara W 85-59 59%     4 - 0 +31.6 +19.7 +13.8
  Nov 21, 2024 48   Vanderbilt L 71-73 40%     4 - 1 +8.7 +4.6 +4.1
  Nov 22, 2024 49   Virginia Commonwealth W 64-61 40%     5 - 1 +13.7 +7.5 +6.7
  Nov 24, 2024 101   Oklahoma St. W 90-78 63%     6 - 1 +16.6 +21.8 -5.1
  Dec 02, 2024 85   Washington St. L 57-68 66%     6 - 2 -7.0 -12.1 +4.8
  Dec 07, 2024 152   @ Loyola Marymount L 64-68 67%     6 - 3 -0.4 +3.0 -3.9
  Dec 11, 2024 114   South Dakota St. W 77-63 77%     7 - 3 +14.2 +16.2 +0.3
  Dec 14, 2024 300   Texas Southern W 105-73 95%     8 - 3 +21.5 +27.1 -6.6
  Dec 21, 2024 76   Colorado St. L 64-66 64%     8 - 4 0 - 1 +2.5 +0.9 +1.4
  Dec 28, 2024 186   @ Wyoming L 63-66 73%     8 - 5 0 - 2 -1.4 -1.4 -0.3
  Dec 31, 2024 54   Utah St. L 64-69 52%     8 - 6 0 - 3 +2.5 -0.4 +2.4
  Jan 03, 2025 53   @ New Mexico L 81-82 OT 31%     8 - 7 0 - 4 +12.2 +8.8 +3.5
  Jan 11, 2025 254   @ Fresno St. W 77-66 OT 84%     9 - 7 1 - 4 +8.5 -0.3 +8.1
  Jan 14, 2025 275   Air Force W 68-62 94%     10 - 7 2 - 4 -3.2 -1.8 -0.7
  Jan 18, 2025 160   San Jose St. W 75-64 84%     11 - 7 3 - 4 +8.5 +11.9 -1.5
  Jan 22, 2025 54   @ Utah St. L 69-74 31%    
  Jan 25, 2025 47   San Diego St. L 63-64 50%    
  Jan 29, 2025 57   @ Boise St. L 67-71 34%    
  Feb 01, 2025 99   UNLV W 70-64 71%    
  Feb 04, 2025 275   @ Air Force W 70-58 86%    
  Feb 11, 2025 254   Fresno St. W 80-64 93%    
  Feb 14, 2025 160   @ San Jose St. W 71-66 68%    
  Feb 18, 2025 76   @ Colorado St. L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 57   Boise St. W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 25, 2025 186   Wyoming W 72-60 87%    
  Feb 28, 2025 99   @ UNLV W 67-66 50%    
  Mar 04, 2025 53   New Mexico W 73-72 53%    
  Mar 08, 2025 47   @ San Diego St. L 60-66 30%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.0 0.7 0.0 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 5.8 3rd
4th 0.8 4.3 4.3 0.2 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 5.3 7.5 1.1 15.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 8.0 9.9 2.9 0.1 23.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 6.2 12.0 10.7 3.8 0.1 34.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.4 1.1 0.2 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.4 4.2 8.8 15.2 19.9 19.8 15.3 9.7 4.0 1.3 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 72.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 35.7% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1
14-6 5.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 1.3% 62.8% 33.3% 29.5% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 44.2%
14-6 4.0% 42.7% 23.7% 18.9% 10.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.0 2.3 24.8%
13-7 9.7% 24.3% 15.1% 9.2% 10.8 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.1 7.4 10.8%
12-8 15.3% 13.9% 11.3% 2.6% 11.0 0.3 1.6 0.3 13.2 2.9%
11-9 19.8% 10.6% 9.8% 0.8% 11.2 0.1 1.5 0.5 17.7 0.9%
10-10 19.9% 7.0% 6.7% 0.4% 11.4 0.0 0.8 0.6 18.5 0.4%
9-11 15.2% 5.2% 5.2% 11.8 0.2 0.6 0.0 14.4
8-12 8.8% 3.3% 3.3% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 8.5
7-13 4.2% 4.6% 4.6% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.0
6-14 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 14.5 0.0 0.0 1.4
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 11.9% 9.2% 2.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.8 6.7 2.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 88.1 3.0%