San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.2#55
Expected Predictive Rating+11.7#33
Pace65.7#289
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#133
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#13
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 1.1% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 1.3% 3.3% 0.7%
Top 4 Seed 4.8% 10.3% 2.9%
Top 6 Seed 10.2% 20.6% 6.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.4% 57.1% 30.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 25.6% 45.1% 19.6%
Average Seed 8.3 7.6 8.7
.500 or above 87.9% 96.4% 85.0%
.500 or above in Conference 87.7% 94.0% 85.6%
Conference Champion 20.3% 29.6% 17.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four5.5% 7.3% 4.8%
First Round34.8% 53.5% 28.5%
Second Round19.1% 32.5% 14.5%
Sweet Sixteen7.4% 13.8% 5.3%
Elite Eight2.9% 5.6% 2.0%
Final Four1.2% 2.3% 0.8%
Championship Game0.4% 1.0% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Home) - 25.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 5
Quad 24 - 36 - 8
Quad 36 - 212 - 10
Quad 47 - 119 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 132   UC San Diego W 63-58 84%     1 - 0 +3.8 -7.2 +11.3
  Nov 18, 2024 4   Gonzaga L 69-76 25%    
  Nov 26, 2024 16   Creighton L 66-71 33%    
  Nov 27, 2024 39   Oregon L 65-67 44%    
  Dec 04, 2024 234   @ Fresno St. W 74-64 81%    
  Dec 07, 2024 277   San Diego W 78-60 95%    
  Dec 11, 2024 181   California Baptist W 71-58 88%    
  Dec 21, 2024 119   California W 72-66 71%    
  Dec 28, 2024 43   Utah St. W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 04, 2025 47   @ Boise St. L 64-68 37%    
  Jan 07, 2025 286   Air Force W 72-53 95%    
  Jan 11, 2025 56   @ New Mexico L 75-78 40%    
  Jan 14, 2025 91   Colorado St. W 68-61 71%    
  Jan 18, 2025 94   UNLV W 70-63 72%    
  Jan 22, 2025 286   @ Air Force W 69-56 86%    
  Jan 25, 2025 46   @ Nevada L 63-67 37%    
  Jan 28, 2025 251   San Jose St. W 74-57 93%    
  Feb 01, 2025 196   Wyoming W 74-60 88%    
  Feb 08, 2025 91   @ Colorado St. W 65-64 52%    
  Feb 11, 2025 251   @ San Jose St. W 71-60 82%    
  Feb 15, 2025 47   Boise St. W 67-65 58%    
  Feb 18, 2025 234   Fresno St. W 77-61 90%    
  Feb 22, 2025 43   @ Utah St. L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 25, 2025 56   New Mexico W 78-75 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 196   @ Wyoming W 71-63 75%    
  Mar 04, 2025 94   @ UNLV W 67-66 52%    
  Mar 08, 2025 46   Nevada W 66-64 57%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.9 5.9 4.3 2.0 0.6 20.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 3.7 6.4 4.5 1.4 0.2 17.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.3 6.1 3.0 0.5 0.0 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.5 5.2 2.1 0.2 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.2 4.4 1.6 0.1 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.7 2.8 0.9 0.1 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.5 1.6 0.5 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.2 5.2 7.2 8.9 11.0 12.0 12.5 11.8 9.9 7.3 4.5 2.0 0.6 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 2.0    1.9 0.0
18-2 96.3% 4.3    3.8 0.5 0.0
17-3 80.6% 5.9    4.1 1.7 0.1
16-4 49.6% 4.9    2.2 2.2 0.5 0.0
15-5 17.9% 2.1    0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.3% 20.3 13.2 5.5 1.3 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 99.5% 61.0% 38.5% 2.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.6%
19-1 2.0% 99.5% 50.0% 49.5% 3.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
18-2 4.5% 97.5% 44.5% 53.0% 5.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.5%
17-3 7.3% 90.8% 33.4% 57.3% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.7 86.1%
16-4 9.9% 79.3% 29.7% 49.6% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 2.0 70.6%
15-5 11.8% 57.7% 21.8% 35.9% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.1 0.3 5.0 46.0%
14-6 12.5% 36.8% 15.0% 21.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 7.9 25.7%
13-7 12.0% 20.6% 9.7% 10.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 0.5 0.0 9.5 12.1%
12-8 11.0% 11.4% 7.1% 4.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 9.7 4.6%
11-9 8.9% 5.9% 4.9% 1.0% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 8.4 1.1%
10-10 7.2% 2.5% 2.3% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 0.2%
9-11 5.2% 2.2% 2.2% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1
8-12 3.2% 1.8% 1.8% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
7-13 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 2.0
6-14 1.1% 1.1
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 37.4% 15.9% 21.5% 8.3 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.3 4.4 5.8 8.3 2.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 62.6 25.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.8 45.8 29.2 25.0