San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#51
Expected Predictive Rating+13.1#39
Pace65.7#245
Improvement-3.2#312

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#137
First Shot-0.2#179
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#103
Layup/Dunks+0.4#165
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#160
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#199
Freethrows-0.2#182
Improvement-3.0#312

Defense
Total Defense+9.5#11
First Shot+10.2#5
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#249
Layups/Dunks+10.2#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#215
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#214
Freethrows+0.6#140
Improvement-0.2#197
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.5% 3.9% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 68.5% 81.7% 60.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.1% 76.8% 54.2%
Average Seed 9.7 9.2 10.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 5.1% 13.2% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four16.1% 9.8% 19.9%
First Round59.5% 76.4% 49.4%
Second Round22.0% 30.6% 16.9%
Sweet Sixteen4.3% 6.0% 3.3%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.7% 1.0%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Away) - 37.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 5
Quad 25 - 310 - 8
Quad 34 - 114 - 9
Quad 47 - 021 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 54   UC San Diego W 63-58 60%     1 - 0 +13.0 -2.2 +15.5
  Nov 18, 2024 11   Gonzaga L 67-80 31%     1 - 1 +2.8 +0.2 +2.5
  Nov 26, 2024 31   Creighton W 71-53 36%     2 - 1 +32.5 +10.9 +22.9
  Nov 27, 2024 39   Oregon L 68-78 44%     2 - 2 +2.2 +2.8 -1.0
  Nov 30, 2024 3   Houston W 73-70 OT 14%     3 - 2 +25.4 +18.0 +7.7
  Dec 04, 2024 254   @ Fresno St. W 84-62 89%     4 - 2 1 - 0 +19.3 +3.1 +14.0
  Dec 07, 2024 314   San Diego W 74-57 97%     5 - 2 +5.3 -6.9 +11.5
  Dec 11, 2024 158   California Baptist W 81-75 88%     6 - 2 +3.7 +18.3 -13.8
  Dec 21, 2024 112   California W 71-50 76%     7 - 2 +24.2 +1.2 +24.1
  Dec 28, 2024 45   Utah St. L 66-67 58%     7 - 3 1 - 1 +7.8 -6.3 +14.1
  Jan 04, 2025 49   @ Boise St. W 76-68 39%     8 - 3 2 - 1 +21.5 +10.8 +10.8
  Jan 08, 2025 294   Air Force W 67-38 96%     9 - 3 3 - 1 +19.1 -4.7 +26.2
  Jan 11, 2025 38   @ New Mexico L 48-62 34%     9 - 4 3 - 2 +0.9 -14.0 +14.4
  Jan 14, 2025 67   Colorado St. W 75-60 68%     10 - 4 4 - 2 +20.8 +7.0 +14.4
  Jan 18, 2025 98   UNLV L 68-76 79%     10 - 5 4 - 3 -5.6 -4.8 -0.6
  Jan 22, 2025 294   @ Air Force W 77-76 OT 92%     11 - 5 5 - 3 -3.8 +2.5 -6.3
  Jan 25, 2025 80   @ Nevada W 69-50 54%     12 - 5 6 - 3 +28.7 +18.6 +15.1
  Jan 28, 2025 163   San Jose St. W 71-68 89%     13 - 5 7 - 3 +0.3 -2.5 +2.9
  Feb 01, 2025 166   Wyoming W 63-61 89%     14 - 5 8 - 3 -0.8 -3.9 +3.2
  Feb 08, 2025 67   @ Colorado St. L 63-68 49%     14 - 6 8 - 4 +5.9 +4.7 +0.3
  Feb 11, 2025 163   @ San Jose St. W 69-66 79%     15 - 6 9 - 4 +5.4 -2.5 +7.9
  Feb 15, 2025 49   Boise St. W 64-47 59%     16 - 6 10 - 4 +25.4 +3.3 +24.3
  Feb 18, 2025 254   Fresno St. W 83-60 95%     17 - 6 11 - 4 +15.2 +9.9 +5.9
  Feb 22, 2025 45   @ Utah St. L 70-73 37%    
  Feb 25, 2025 38   New Mexico W 72-71 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 166   @ Wyoming W 67-59 77%    
  Mar 04, 2025 98   @ UNLV W 65-62 60%    
  Mar 08, 2025 80   Nevada W 67-61 73%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.8 4.4 5.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 13.9 3.8 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.2 19.0 11.2 32.3 3rd
4th 1.3 11.6 13.9 0.3 27.1 4th
5th 0.7 6.5 8.2 0.9 16.2 5th
6th 0.4 0.2 0.6 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.1 8.0 21.9 34.7 26.1 8.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 53.4% 4.4    0.4 3.0 1.0
15-5 3.0% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 5.1% 5.1 0.4 3.1 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 8.2% 96.3% 29.6% 66.7% 8.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.3 94.8%
15-5 26.1% 84.6% 22.4% 62.2% 9.5 0.1 0.6 2.8 7.0 8.4 3.2 0.0 4.0 80.1%
14-6 34.7% 67.6% 14.8% 52.8% 10.1 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.4 9.6 8.2 0.1 11.3 61.9%
13-7 21.9% 54.5% 11.5% 42.9% 10.4 0.1 1.3 4.2 6.2 0.1 10.0 48.5%
12-8 8.0% 37.0% 10.0% 27.0% 10.7 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.1 5.0 30.0%
11-9 1.1% 17.8% 9.3% 8.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9 9.3%
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 68.5% 16.8% 51.7% 9.7 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 5.9 14.9 24.2 19.7 0.4 31.5 62.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.4% 100.0% 6.4 4.1 16.2 34.9 28.6 13.3 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.8% 96.1% 8.4 0.6 2.8 18.3 30.6 28.9 14.4 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.6% 96.2% 8.9 0.4 6.9 25.7 38.7 21.5 3.1