San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#47
Expected Predictive Rating+11.3#49
Pace65.8#245
Improvement-2.2#279

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#138
First Shot-0.1#175
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#103
Layup/Dunks+0.4#159
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#157
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#199
Freethrows-0.1#183
Improvement-3.4#335

Defense
Total Defense+9.5#8
First Shot+10.3#3
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#253
Layups/Dunks+10.3#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#218
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#216
Freethrows+0.5#139
Improvement+1.2#121
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.4% 2.6% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.0% 51.1% 37.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.4% 38.5% 26.1%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 10.2
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 98.1% 98.7% 92.2%
Conference Champion 12.3% 13.0% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.8% 12.8% 12.5%
First Round43.6% 44.8% 30.9%
Second Round19.0% 19.6% 12.6%
Sweet Sixteen4.9% 5.1% 2.6%
Elite Eight1.5% 1.6% 0.8%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Air Force (Away) - 91.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 4
Quad 25 - 39 - 8
Quad 35 - 214 - 9
Quad 47 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 79   UC San Diego W 63-58 73%     1 - 0 +9.5 -4.2 +14.0
  Nov 18, 2024 14   Gonzaga L 67-80 38%     1 - 1 +0.9 -1.7 +2.5
  Nov 26, 2024 33   Creighton W 71-53 42%     2 - 1 +30.9 +9.8 +22.5
  Nov 27, 2024 28   Oregon L 68-78 40%     2 - 2 +3.4 +4.2 -1.1
  Nov 30, 2024 3   Houston W 73-70 OT 16%     3 - 2 +24.6 +19.1 +5.7
  Dec 04, 2024 254   @ Fresno St. W 84-62 89%     4 - 2 1 - 0 +19.5 +2.9 +14.4
  Dec 07, 2024 290   San Diego W 74-57 96%     5 - 2 +6.8 -4.9 +10.8
  Dec 11, 2024 172   California Baptist W 81-75 90%     6 - 2 +2.8 +17.4 -13.8
  Dec 21, 2024 118   California W 71-50 78%     7 - 2 +23.7 +1.0 +23.9
  Dec 28, 2024 54   Utah St. L 66-67 63%     7 - 3 1 - 1 +6.5 -5.1 +11.5
  Jan 04, 2025 57   @ Boise St. W 76-68 44%     8 - 3 2 - 1 +20.5 +9.5 +11.2
  Jan 08, 2025 275   Air Force W 67-38 96%     9 - 3 3 - 1 +19.8 -4.4 +26.5
  Jan 11, 2025 53   @ New Mexico L 48-62 41%     9 - 4 3 - 2 -0.8 -14.8 +13.5
  Jan 14, 2025 76   Colorado St. W 75-60 73%     10 - 4 4 - 2 +19.5 +8.7 +11.4
  Jan 18, 2025 99   UNLV L 68-76 80%     10 - 5 4 - 3 -5.8 -7.0 +1.4
  Jan 22, 2025 275   @ Air Force W 70-55 92%    
  Jan 25, 2025 68   @ Nevada W 64-63 50%    
  Jan 28, 2025 160   San Jose St. W 73-60 90%    
  Feb 01, 2025 186   Wyoming W 72-57 92%    
  Feb 08, 2025 76   @ Colorado St. W 66-65 52%    
  Feb 11, 2025 160   @ San Jose St. W 71-63 76%    
  Feb 15, 2025 57   Boise St. W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 18, 2025 254   Fresno St. W 80-61 96%    
  Feb 22, 2025 54   @ Utah St. L 69-71 41%    
  Feb 25, 2025 53   New Mexico W 72-69 63%    
  Mar 01, 2025 186   @ Wyoming W 69-60 81%    
  Mar 04, 2025 99   @ UNLV W 67-64 61%    
  Mar 08, 2025 68   Nevada W 66-60 70%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 4.4 5.4 1.7 12.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 7.9 9.3 2.5 0.1 20.8 2nd
3rd 0.9 8.1 10.7 2.2 0.1 22.0 3rd
4th 0.6 5.5 9.7 2.4 0.0 18.3 4th
5th 0.5 3.7 7.2 2.4 0.1 13.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.4 2.1 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.8 0.0 3.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 4.2 9.4 15.7 21.4 21.9 15.9 7.9 1.8 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 95.6% 1.7    1.3 0.4 0.0
16-4 68.0% 5.4    2.6 2.3 0.4
15-5 27.5% 4.4    0.8 2.1 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 3.4% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.3% 12.3 4.7 4.9 2.1 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 1.8% 100.0% 39.4% 60.6% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.9% 92.9% 34.0% 58.9% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.6 89.2%
15-5 15.9% 79.0% 27.0% 52.0% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 3.4 4.6 2.2 3.3 71.2%
14-6 21.9% 59.9% 21.6% 38.3% 10.1 0.1 0.6 2.0 5.4 4.9 0.2 8.8 48.8%
13-7 21.4% 42.9% 19.1% 23.7% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 5.3 0.2 12.2 29.4%
12-8 15.7% 25.8% 14.0% 11.8% 10.7 0.1 1.0 2.9 0.1 11.7 13.7%
11-9 9.4% 15.6% 10.1% 5.5% 11.0 0.2 1.1 0.2 8.0 6.1%
10-10 4.2% 9.6% 7.4% 2.2% 11.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 3.8 2.3%
9-11 1.4% 6.6% 6.6% 11.3 0.1 0.0 1.3
8-12 0.4% 4.7% 4.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 50.0% 20.1% 29.9% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.1 4.6 8.1 15.2 16.9 0.8 50.0 37.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 3.5 2.8 15.5 32.4 28.2 16.9 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 6.5 5.1 15.4 28.2 33.3 15.4 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 100.0% 6.8 1.9 13.0 24.1 35.2 22.2 1.9 1.9