IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.3	#251
Expected Predictive Rating	-20.6	#359

Pace	65.0	#308
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.8	#226

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.6	#250

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.3	13.6	15.1

.500 or above	2.7%	5.8%	1.2%
.500 or above in Conference	4.7%	7.5%	3.3%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	29.2%	22.8%	32.5%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UC Santa Barbara (Home) - 34.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 4	0 - 6
Quad 2	1 - 6	1 - 12
Quad 3	2 - 6	3 - 18
Quad 4	5 - 5	8 - 23

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	312	Western Illinois	L	55-59	74%	0 - 1			-15.1	-13.3	-2.4
Nov 08, 2024	284	Pacific	L	67-80	58%	0 - 2			-19.3	-11.5	-7.4
Nov 10, 2024	175	@ Hawaii	L	69-80	26%	0 - 3			-8.7	+5.2	-15.1
Nov 17, 2024	117	UC Santa Barbara	L	71-75	34%
Nov 20, 2024	65	@ USC	L	64-80	7%
Nov 25, 2024	194	UTEP	L	69-71	41%
Nov 26, 2024	174	UNC Greensboro	L	65-69	37%
Nov 27, 2024	250	Long Beach St.	L	74-75	50%
Dec 04, 2024	56	@ New Mexico	L	72-88	7%
Dec 14, 2024	333	Cal Poly	W	77-68	78%
Dec 21, 2024	176	Kennesaw St.	L	78-79	48%
Dec 28, 2024	47	Boise St.	L	63-74	16%
Dec 31, 2024	91	Colorado St.	L	64-71	26%
Jan 04, 2025	94	@ UNLV	L	62-75	13%
Jan 07, 2025	43	Utah St.	L	67-79	15%
Jan 11, 2025	286	@ Air Force	L	64-65	47%
Jan 14, 2025	56	New Mexico	L	75-85	19%
Jan 18, 2025	46	@ Nevada	L	60-77	7%
Jan 25, 2025	196	Wyoming	W	70-69	52%
Jan 28, 2025	55	@ San Diego St.	L	57-74	7%
Feb 01, 2025	286	Air Force	W	67-62	68%
Feb 04, 2025	234	@ Fresno St.	L	70-74	37%
Feb 07, 2025	47	@ Boise St.	L	60-77	7%
Feb 11, 2025	55	San Diego St.	L	60-71	18%
Feb 14, 2025	46	Nevada	L	63-74	17%
Feb 19, 2025	43	@ Utah St.	L	64-82	6%
Feb 22, 2025	196	@ Wyoming	L	67-72	32%
Feb 25, 2025	94	UNLV	L	65-72	28%
Mar 04, 2025	91	@ Colorado St.	L	61-74	14%
Mar 08, 2025	234	Fresno St.	W	73-71	57%
Projected Record						8 - 22	5 - 15

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0						0.0	1st
2nd													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.2	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0								0.3	3rd
4th										0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0								0.7	4th
5th									0.0	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.0									1.6	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	0.5	1.2	1.1	0.4	0.0	0.0									3.4	6th
7th						0.0	0.6	1.8	2.8	2.0	0.6	0.1											7.9	7th
8th					0.4	2.7	5.4	5.5	3.0	0.8	0.0	0.0											17.9	8th
9th			0.0	1.5	5.9	8.1	5.8	2.1	0.4	0.0													23.8	9th
10th		0.3	3.3	8.1	8.2	4.1	1.0	0.1	0.0														25.0	10th
11th	1.6	4.9	6.6	4.6	1.4	0.2	0.0	0.0															19.4	11th

Total	1.6	5.2	9.9	14.2	15.9	15.1	12.8	9.7	6.7	4.2	2.4	1.3	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0							Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4	50.0%	0.0		0.0
15-5	50.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
14-6	3.3%	0.0				0.0
13-7	3.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0
12-8	0.5%	0.0						0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4	0.0%																							0.0
15-5	0.0%																		0.0					0.0
14-6	0.1%		6.7%	6.7%		11.5												0.0	0.0					0.1
13-7	0.3%		3.2%	3.2%		12.7													0.0	0.0				0.3
12-8	0.6%		2.6%	2.6%		13.6													0.0		0.0	0.0		0.6
11-9	1.3%		1.6%	1.6%		13.0												0.0		0.0	0.0			1.2
10-10	2.4%		0.6%	0.6%		14.5															0.0	0.0		2.4
9-11	4.2%		0.5%	0.5%		15.0															0.0	0.0	0.0	4.2
8-12	6.7%		0.4%	0.4%		15.8																0.0	0.0	6.7
7-13	9.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	9.6
6-14	12.8%																							12.8
5-15	15.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	15.1
4-16	15.9%																							15.9
3-17	14.2%																							14.2
2-18	9.9%																							9.9
1-19	5.2%																							5.2
0-20	1.6%																							1.6

Total	100%		0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	14.3												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	99.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%