San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#160
Expected Predictive Rating-1.8#204
Pace65.0#266
Improvement+5.7#12

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#122
First Shot+2.0#117
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#189
Layup/Dunks+0.8#145
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#144
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#216
Freethrows+2.0#71
Improvement+3.8#21

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#232
First Shot-1.6#230
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#199
Layups/Dunks-4.3#326
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#109
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#189
Freethrows+1.6#69
Improvement+1.9#82
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 15.4
.500 or above 4.7% 6.7% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 5.3% 7.7% 0.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.7% 3.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Home) - 65.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 50 - 6
Quad 22 - 62 - 12
Quad 34 - 46 - 16
Quad 47 - 312 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 336   Western Illinois L 55-59 91%     0 - 1 -18.2 -16.5 -2.3
  Nov 08, 2024 302   Pacific L 67-80 78%     0 - 2 -20.9 -13.2 -7.3
  Nov 10, 2024 181   @ Hawaii L 69-80 44%     0 - 3 -9.1 +5.2 -15.5
  Nov 17, 2024 165   UC Santa Barbara L 59-64 62%     0 - 4 -7.7 -2.9 -5.9
  Nov 20, 2024 61   @ USC L 68-82 14%     0 - 5 -2.2 +7.3 -10.9
  Nov 25, 2024 131   UTEP W 71-65 44%     1 - 5 +7.9 +1.4 +6.6
  Nov 26, 2024 129   UNC Greensboro W 69-64 43%     2 - 5 +7.1 +1.8 +5.7
  Nov 27, 2024 293   Long Beach St. W 82-66 77%     3 - 5 +8.4 +15.5 -4.9
  Dec 04, 2024 53   @ New Mexico L 77-83 12%     3 - 6 0 - 1 +7.2 +11.6 -4.3
  Dec 14, 2024 286   Cal Poly W 107-100 OT 83%     4 - 6 -2.9 +4.5 -9.0
  Dec 21, 2024 183   Kennesaw St. W 89-65 65%     5 - 6 +20.3 +7.8 +10.8
  Dec 28, 2024 57   Boise St. L 71-73 26%     5 - 7 0 - 2 +5.0 +12.5 -7.8
  Dec 31, 2024 76   Colorado St. L 50-72 34%     5 - 8 0 - 3 -17.5 -20.0 +2.8
  Jan 04, 2025 99   @ UNLV L 73-79 24%     5 - 9 0 - 4 +1.7 +10.5 -9.4
  Jan 07, 2025 54   Utah St. L 78-85 25%     5 - 10 0 - 5 +0.5 +13.4 -13.4
  Jan 11, 2025 275   @ Air Force W 69-62 65%     6 - 10 1 - 5 +3.3 +3.5 +0.7
  Jan 14, 2025 53   New Mexico W 71-70 24%     7 - 10 2 - 5 +8.7 +1.6 +7.1
  Jan 18, 2025 68   @ Nevada L 64-75 16%     7 - 11 2 - 6 -0.1 +7.3 -9.3
  Jan 25, 2025 186   Wyoming W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 28, 2025 47   @ San Diego St. L 60-73 10%    
  Feb 01, 2025 275   Air Force W 71-62 82%    
  Feb 04, 2025 254   @ Fresno St. W 78-75 59%    
  Feb 07, 2025 57   @ Boise St. L 66-78 12%    
  Feb 11, 2025 47   San Diego St. L 63-71 24%    
  Feb 14, 2025 68   Nevada L 66-71 32%    
  Feb 19, 2025 54   @ Utah St. L 69-82 11%    
  Feb 22, 2025 186   @ Wyoming L 69-70 44%    
  Feb 25, 2025 99   UNLV L 69-71 44%    
  Mar 04, 2025 76   @ Colorado St. L 65-75 18%    
  Mar 08, 2025 254   Fresno St. W 80-72 78%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.5 2.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.7 4.6 2.0 0.2 11.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.6 10.2 17.1 13.0 4.4 0.5 46.8 8th
9th 0.2 3.6 10.6 11.1 5.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 31.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 2.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.2 1.6 6.4 14.1 21.7 23.2 17.7 9.9 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.1
11-9 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 11.0 0.0 1.1
10-10 4.1% 1.0% 1.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 4.1
9-11 9.9% 0.7% 0.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8
8-12 17.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.6
7-13 23.2% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 23.1
6-14 21.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.7
5-15 14.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.1
4-16 6.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.4
3-17 1.6% 1.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%