San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#185
Expected Predictive Rating-4.0#235
Pace65.0#281
Improvement+6.5#3

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#136
First Shot+0.1#168
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#122
Layup/Dunks+1.0#143
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#294
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#213
Freethrows+2.3#60
Improvement+4.3#3

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#250
First Shot-2.1#241
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#202
Layups/Dunks-4.2#329
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#69
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#180
Freethrows+0.4#157
Improvement+2.1#36
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.5 14.4
.500 or above 8.0% 12.0% 3.0%
.500 or above in Conference 11.4% 13.7% 8.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.4% 11.3% 16.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Home) - 55.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 62 - 11
Quad 34 - 56 - 16
Quad 46 - 412 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 328   Western Illinois L 55-59 86%     0 - 1 -16.9 -15.2 -2.4
  Nov 08, 2024 264   Pacific L 67-80 67%     0 - 2 -18.6 -9.1 -9.1
  Nov 10, 2024 174   @ Hawaii L 69-80 37%     0 - 3 -8.8 +5.6 -15.7
  Nov 17, 2024 136   UC Santa Barbara L 59-64 52%     0 - 4 -6.6 -3.3 -4.4
  Nov 20, 2024 80   @ USC L 68-82 15%     0 - 5 -4.1 +7.0 -12.5
  Nov 25, 2024 132   UTEP W 71-65 39%     1 - 5 +7.5 +2.1 +5.5
  Nov 26, 2024 157   UNC Greensboro W 69-64 45%     2 - 5 +5.1 +2.2 +3.2
  Nov 27, 2024 272   Long Beach St. W 82-66 68%     3 - 5 +10.1 +17.0 -4.7
  Dec 04, 2024 71   @ New Mexico L 77-83 13%     3 - 6 0 - 1 +4.8 +8.1 -3.3
  Dec 14, 2024 249   Cal Poly W 107-100 OT 74%     4 - 6 -0.9 +6.1 -8.6
  Dec 21, 2024 154   Kennesaw St. W 78-77 55%    
  Dec 28, 2024 58   Boise St. L 68-75 24%    
  Dec 31, 2024 108   Colorado St. L 69-71 41%    
  Jan 04, 2025 113   @ UNLV L 66-74 24%    
  Jan 07, 2025 47   Utah St. L 69-78 20%    
  Jan 11, 2025 267   @ Air Force W 67-65 56%    
  Jan 14, 2025 71   New Mexico L 76-82 29%    
  Jan 18, 2025 54   @ Nevada L 62-76 10%    
  Jan 25, 2025 187   Wyoming W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 28, 2025 45   @ San Diego St. L 62-77 8%    
  Feb 01, 2025 267   Air Force W 70-62 75%    
  Feb 04, 2025 256   @ Fresno St. W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 07, 2025 58   @ Boise St. L 65-78 11%    
  Feb 11, 2025 45   San Diego St. L 65-74 21%    
  Feb 14, 2025 54   Nevada L 65-73 23%    
  Feb 19, 2025 47   @ Utah St. L 66-81 9%    
  Feb 22, 2025 187   @ Wyoming L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 25, 2025 113   UNLV L 69-71 44%    
  Mar 04, 2025 108   @ Colorado St. L 66-74 23%    
  Mar 08, 2025 256   Fresno St. W 77-70 73%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.3 5.6 4.1 1.5 0.1 15.5 7th
8th 0.2 2.5 7.1 8.6 5.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 25.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 4.0 8.3 7.2 3.0 0.5 0.0 23.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.6 5.5 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 14.4 10th
11th 0.2 0.9 2.4 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.5 11th
Total 0.2 0.9 3.1 6.7 11.0 14.5 16.1 15.2 12.3 8.6 5.7 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 75.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 62.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 29.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 11.8% 11.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.2% 3.3% 3.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 0.6% 1.3% 1.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-8 1.5% 2.8% 2.8% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
11-9 3.2% 1.1% 1.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
10-10 5.7% 1.1% 1.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6
9-11 8.6% 0.6% 0.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6
8-12 12.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 12.3
7-13 15.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 15.2
6-14 16.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.1
5-15 14.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.5
4-16 11.0% 11.0
3-17 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.7
2-18 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.1
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%