San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#163
Expected Predictive Rating-0.8#175
Pace65.0#264
Improvement+1.3#130

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#136
First Shot+1.4#126
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#197
Layup/Dunks+0.6#154
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#155
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#223
Freethrows+1.9#77
Improvement-0.1#190

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#213
First Shot-1.3#219
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#190
Layups/Dunks-4.1#322
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#111
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#188
Freethrows+1.7#72
Improvement+1.4#113
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.8 15.6
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Away) - 39.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 60 - 7
Quad 21 - 61 - 13
Quad 34 - 46 - 17
Quad 47 - 212 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 351   Western Illinois L 55-59 92%     0 - 1 -19.5 -17.0 -3.2
  Nov 08, 2024 277   Pacific L 67-80 73%     0 - 2 -19.5 -11.4 -7.7
  Nov 10, 2024 207   @ Hawaii L 69-80 49%     0 - 3 -11.0 +5.3 -17.5
  Nov 17, 2024 145   UC Santa Barbara L 59-64 56%     0 - 4 -6.6 -3.1 -4.6
  Nov 20, 2024 59   @ USC L 68-82 12%     0 - 5 -1.3 +7.0 -9.7
  Nov 25, 2024 139   UTEP W 71-65 45%     1 - 5 +7.2 +1.2 +6.1
  Nov 26, 2024 154   UNC Greensboro W 69-64 47%     2 - 5 +5.6 +2.0 +3.9
  Nov 27, 2024 304   Long Beach St. W 82-66 78%     3 - 5 +7.6 +15.2 -5.3
  Dec 04, 2024 38   @ New Mexico L 77-83 9%     3 - 6 0 - 1 +8.9 +12.4 -3.4
  Dec 14, 2024 242   Cal Poly W 107-100 OT 74%     4 - 6 +0.0 +6.3 -7.8
  Dec 21, 2024 131   Kennesaw St. W 89-65 53%     5 - 6 +23.1 +10.5 +10.8
  Dec 28, 2024 49   Boise St. L 71-73 21%     5 - 7 0 - 2 +6.4 +14.1 -8.1
  Dec 31, 2024 67   Colorado St. L 50-72 28%     5 - 8 0 - 3 -16.2 -21.7 +5.8
  Jan 04, 2025 98   @ UNLV L 73-79 23%     5 - 9 0 - 4 +1.4 +12.4 -11.6
  Jan 07, 2025 45   Utah St. L 78-85 20%     5 - 10 0 - 5 +1.8 +12.1 -10.9
  Jan 11, 2025 294   @ Air Force W 69-62 67%     6 - 10 1 - 5 +2.2 +2.9 +0.1
  Jan 14, 2025 38   New Mexico W 71-70 17%     7 - 10 2 - 5 +10.9 +2.6 +8.2
  Jan 18, 2025 80   @ Nevada L 64-75 18%     7 - 11 2 - 6 -1.3 +6.7 -9.8
  Jan 25, 2025 166   Wyoming W 67-58 60%     8 - 11 3 - 6 +6.2 +2.2 +4.9
  Jan 28, 2025 51   @ San Diego St. L 68-71 11%     8 - 12 3 - 7 +10.2 +7.8 +2.3
  Feb 01, 2025 294   Air Force W 75-64 82%     9 - 12 4 - 7 +1.1 +3.9 -1.9
  Feb 04, 2025 254   @ Fresno St. W 94-91 2OT 60%     10 - 12 5 - 7 +0.3 +3.0 -3.3
  Feb 07, 2025 49   @ Boise St. L 52-79 11%     10 - 13 5 - 8 -13.5 -8.8 -7.8
  Feb 11, 2025 51   San Diego St. L 66-69 21%     10 - 14 5 - 9 +5.2 +2.8 +2.3
  Feb 14, 2025 80   Nevada L 58-73 32%     10 - 15 5 - 10 -10.3 -4.6 -7.8
  Feb 19, 2025 45   @ Utah St. L 57-105 10%     10 - 16 5 - 11 -34.1 -10.1 -26.1
  Feb 22, 2025 166   @ Wyoming L 66-68 40%    
  Feb 25, 2025 98   UNLV L 67-70 42%    
  Mar 04, 2025 67   @ Colorado St. L 66-77 15%    
  Mar 08, 2025 254   Fresno St. W 79-71 78%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.6 6th
7th 0.7 5.6 1.4 7.7 7th
8th 10.7 33.3 12.5 0.5 57.0 8th
9th 7.4 22.5 4.9 0.0 34.7 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 7.4 33.2 38.9 18.2 2.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 2.4% 0.4% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 2.4
8-12 18.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.1 18.2
7-13 38.9% 0.2% 0.2% 15.4 0.1 0.0 38.8
6-14 33.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 33.2
5-15 7.4% 7.4
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 4.3%