San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -3.7 223
Results Rating -4.3 239
Consistency 0.15 156
Pace 63.7 307
Improvement -0.8 216

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 140 C- C+ B- C- F+
Defense D 310 D D- C+ C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 344 C- 55% 246 -5.3 342
2 Pt. Jumpers 51% 47 C 38% 194 +3.6 38
Three Pointers 39% 220 B- 36% 86 +0.4 162
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ -1.7 345 C +0.5 150
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 219
Second Chance C+ 32.4% 109 C+ 1.05 145 C+ 0.34 109
Opponents' Steals B 8.0% 48
Other Turnovers C+ 7.0% 143
Turnovers B- 15.0% 74
Freethrows C- 0.29 241 B- 75% 111 C- 0.21 203
Total Offense C +0.9 140

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 45% 246 C- 11.9% 235
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 310 C 4.8% 180
Three Pointers D 77% 323 B- 0.6% 111
Total D 48% 322 C+ 5.4% 163


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 117 D- 65% 345 +4.6 327
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 277 D+ 41% 273 -0.7 131
Three Pointers 41% 166 C 34% 166 +0.0 185
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 274 D +3.1 301
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 311
Second Chance D 34.2% 319 D- 1.15 329 D- 0.39 342
Turnovers from Steals C- 9.0% 206
Other Turnovers B 8.3% 60
Turnovers C+ 17.3% 141
Freethrows C+ 0.29 162 D- 76% 338 C 0.22 199
Total Defense D -4.6 310

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 54% 291 D- 6.4% 341
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 207 D+ 3.3% 271
Three Pointers D 88% 307 D+ 0.4% 296
Total D+ 60% 270 D- 3.4% 337

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.2 337 17.1 137
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 264 0.20 291
Consistency 0.13 213 0.14 309
Improvement +1.4 121 -2.2 293

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 244 227 210
Results Rating Rank 245 240 218
Conference Record 3 - 17 3 - 17 4 - 16
Conference Finish 11 11 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Wyoming (Home) - 29.6% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 6
Quad 21 - 121 - 17
Quad 31 - 71 - 24
Quad 46 - 07 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 102 @Utah L 75 - 84 15% -5  11% 0 - 1 C -2 C +1 C C C- C- -3 D D C
 Sat, Nov 8 142 @UC Santa Barbara L 74 - 85 23% -9  3% 0 - 2 D+ -7 B +7 C A+ F F -16 F F C-
 Thu, Nov 13 9 @Michigan St. L 60 - 79 1% -14  0% 0 - 3 C+ +4 C +1 D+ C+ A- B- +2 B- B- D-
 Fri, Nov 21 278 Southern W 80 - 66 71% +8  90% 1 - 3 C+ +5 C +1 C- C+ D- B +4 C A- A-
 Tue, Nov 25 64 Tulsa L 51 - 81 12% -13  4% 1 - 4 F -21 F -16 F C F+ F+ -9 D- F C
 Wed, Nov 26 279 Loyola Chicago W 63 - 51 61% +1  49% 2 - 4 B- +6 D+ -2 D+ D C+ A +10 C F A+
 Sun, Nov 30 123 UC Irvine L 63 - 72 37% -5  6% 2 - 5 D -9 D+ -3 D+ F+ A D- -6 D+ F+ D+
 Fri, Dec 5 238 San Diego W 86 - 69 64% +18  98% 3 - 5 B +10 C+ +2 B+ A+ F A- +7 A+ F D
 Tue, Dec 9 268 Long Beach St. W 89 - 83 OT 70% +1  43% 4 - 5 C- -3 B+ +8 A A- C F -11 C- F B+
 Sat, Dec 13 60 Stanford L 82 - 86 18% -8  0% 4 - 6 C+ +2 A- +10 B- A+ A+ D- -8 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 53 @New Mexico L 65 - 88 6% -10  1% 4 - 7 0 - 1 D -9 C- -1 C- C C F+ -9 F F+ C
 Tue, Dec 30 48 San Diego St. L 68 - 81 13% -4  5% 4 - 8 0 - 2 C- -5 D+ -4 F+ B+ F+ C -0 D+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 42 @Utah St. L 78 - 96 4% -1  51% 4 - 9 0 - 3 C- -2 A+ +15 A C A+ F -19 F F D
 Tue, Jan 6 129 Fresno St. L 55 - 70 40% -11  1% 4 - 10 0 - 4 F+ -16 F -13 D+ F B- D+ -4 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 62 @Grand Canyon L 58 - 76 8% -14  0% 4 - 11 0 - 5 D+ -6 D- -8 C D+ D B- +2 D- D B+
 Tue, Jan 13 344 Air Force W 70 - 62 87% +4  89% 5 - 11 1 - 5 D+ -8 C- -1 D+ B- C D -5 C- D- A
 Sat, Jan 17 103 UNLV L 62 - 76 31% -7  2% 5 - 12 1 - 6 D- -13 C -0 C+ C- F+ F -16 F A+ F+
 Tue, Jan 20 81 @Nevada L 54 - 87 10% -16  0% 5 - 13 1 - 7 F -23 F+ -9 F D A+ F -18 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 100 @Wyoming L 62 - 66 14% -3  10% 5 - 14 1 - 8 C+ +4 D+ -4 D F A A- +7 B- A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 27 59 Boise St. L 58 - 89 17% -9  6% 5 - 15 1 - 9 F -25 F -13 F+ B- D- F -14 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 31 53 New Mexico L 80 - 90 15% -7  0% 5 - 16 1 - 10 C- -2 A+ +17 B A+ A+ F -20 F F F
 Sat, Feb 7 85 @Colorado St. L 57 - 65 11% -3  7% 5 - 17 1 - 11 C+ +2 F -13 F F+ A+ A+ +15 A+ F+ D-
 Tue, Feb 10 103 @UNLV L 75 - 82 15% -4  6% 5 - 18 1 - 12 C +0 C+ +3 F+ A- A+ D+ -3 C+ D- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 62 Grand Canyon L 79 - 94 18% -6  23% 5 - 19 1 - 13 D -9 A+ +16 A B- A+ F -26 F F B+
 Tue, Feb 17 81 Nevada W 87 - 71 22% +12  98% 6 - 19 2 - 13 A +20 A +12 A+ A+ F+ A- +8 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Feb 21 59 @Boise St. L 69 - 84 8% -9  3% 6 - 20 2 - 14 C- -3 C+ +3 F+ A+ A+ D- -7 F C+ D-
 Tue, Feb 24 344 @Air Force W 86 - 80 72% +3  69% 7 - 20 3 - 14 C- -4 A +13 B+ C B+ F -16 F F F
 Sat, Feb 28 85 Colorado St. L 73 - 85 24% -4  9% 7 - 21 3 - 15 D -8 C+ +3 B- D A+ F -13 F A+ C-
 Tue, Mar 3 129 @Fresno St. L 68 - 82 21% -8  1% 7 - 22 3 - 16 D -9 C- -1 D+ D+ A+ D- -8 C B+ F
 Sat, Mar 7 100 Wyoming L 71 - 76 30%
Totals 7 - 23 3 - 17 -4 C +1 F+ C F+ D -5 B- B- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- C B- C 31% 51% 39% F+ C- C+ C+ C+ B- C- B- C- D D- D+ C D 41% 18% 41% D+ D D D- D- C+ C+ D- C
1.10 55% 38% 36% 0 -2 0.99 32% 1.1 .34 15% .29 75% .21 1.15 65% 41% 34% +3 +1 1.10 34% 1.1 .39 17% .29 76% .22
Nov
3		 Utah C B- F C C 47% 20% 33% C+ C B D- C C- B F D C- F A+ F D 45% 14% 41% D D D- C- D C C- A+ B-
1.07 62% 27% 33% -1 +1 1.02 33% 0.8 .28 16% .30 50% .15 1.20 70% 14% 43% +7 +1 1.20 36% 1.0 .36 16% .32 63% .20
Nov
8		 UC Santa Barbara B C- A+ F C+ 32% 32% 36% F C A+ A+ A+ F A A A+ F D F F F 37% 22% 41% B- F F D+ F C- D- B- D
1.18 57% 64% 25% +3 -2 1.05 44% 1.5 .64 22% .43 81% .35 1.36 65% 60% 53% +19 0 1.39 42% 1.1 .46 18% .37 74% .27
Nov
13		 Michigan St. C D+ C F+ C 19% 32% 49% F D+ C- A C+ A- A- D B B- F D A+ B 38% 18% 44% D B- C B B- D- F A D
0.91 50% 35% 27% -8 -3 0.81 18% 1.0 .18 14% .31 67% .21 1.19 79% 44% 23% +2 0 1.06 41% 1.0 .41 14% .44 68% .30
Nov
21		 Southern C D C A+ C+ 30% 36% 34% F C- B+ F+ C+ D- A+ C A+ B D D+ A+ C 33% 24% 43% C- C C A+ A- A- A- F B-
1.15 54% 38% 47% +5 -3 1.07 39% 1.0 .39 22% .53 76% .40 0.95 61% 38% 26% -4 -1 0.93 29% 0.7 .21 20% .25 79% .20
Nov
25		 Tulsa F F D- C+ F 29% 35% 35% F F B+ F C F+ F+ D+ D- F+ C+ A+ F D- 48% 6% 46% D D- C+ F F C A+ C A+
0.83 29% 29% 35% -11 -3 0.75 33% 0.9 .30 20% .20 70% .14 1.32 57% 0% 50% +8 +3 1.23 31% 1.9 .58 15% .19 80% .15
Nov
26		 Loyola Chicago D+ D A+ F C- 36% 29% 36% D D+ B F D C+ B F+ C+ A C- B+ D+ C- 34% 17% 49% B+ C C- F F A+ B A B+
1.08 50% 62% 25% -1 -1 0.98 33% 0.7 .24 12% .33 71% .23 0.87 58% 33% 35% 0 0 1.03 32% 1.3 .41 36% .27 60% .16
Nov
30		 UC Irvine D+ F F A C- 31% 31% 38% D- D+ B+ F F+ A D+ B+ C D- C+ F A C- 55% 24% 22% F D+ D+ F F+ D+ B A+ A-
0.95 38% 25% 40% -7 -2 0.85 40% 0.5 .21 14% .23 77% .17 1.08 54% 50% 27% -2 +1 1.00 33% 1.3 .42 17% .25 57% .14
Dec
5		 San Diego C+ A A+ A A 32% 34% 34% F B+ A+ D- A+ F A+ D+ A+ A- B- A+ A+ A+ 20% 19% 61% B- A+ F F+ F D D D+ D-
1.18 71% 53% 40% +13 -2 1.23 58% 0.9 .54 30% .53 70% .37 0.95 55% 0% 24% -17 -1 0.67 39% 1.1 .43 15% .27 76% .21
Dec
9		 Long Beach St. B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 28% 36% D- A D+ A+ A- C A+ C- A F D- C- A- C 40% 25% 35% F+ C- F C F B+ B- F C-
1.25 56% 64% 44% +12 -1 1.24 26% 1.9 .48 17% .46 74% .34 1.17 67% 38% 28% 0 0 1.02 50% 1.1 .53 21% .25 86% .21
Dec
13		 Stanford A- A+ C+ D+ B+ 26% 43% 30% F B- B+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B D- F A+ F F 49% 5% 46% D F F F+ F A+ F C+ F
1.19 71% 39% 31% +3 -4 1.00 33% 1.5 .48 12% .33 90% .29 1.24 72% 0% 53% +18 +3 1.43 60% 1.2 .70 29% .59 72% .43
Dec
20		 New Mexico C- F F A+ C 21% 31% 48% F+ C- C+ D+ C C F A F+ F+ F F C+ F 32% 10% 58% B- F A+ F F+ C C F D
0.95 45% 25% 40% -2 -3 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 19% .18 80% .15 1.29 81% 80% 34% +12 +1 1.28 16% 2.5 .40 15% .31 83% .26
Dec
30		 San Diego St. D+ F B+ F F 32% 21% 47% C F+ B B+ B+ F+ A+ A+ A+ C B C+ F D+ 46% 30% 24% C- D+ F F F A+ F B F
0.93 40% 40% 23% -13 -1 0.74 33% 1.1 .36 25% .44 92% .40 1.11 57% 36% 55% +6 -1 1.13 39% 1.4 .54 22% .46 73% .33
Jan
3		 Utah St. A+ C F A+ A 38% 23% 38% C A B+ F+ C A+ A A+ A+ F D- F F F 57% 9% 35% F+ F F+ F F D F F F
1.21 56% 27% 50% +6 0 1.13 38% 0.8 .31 16% .40 82% .33 1.49 69% 50% 44% +12 +3 1.33 42% 1.7 .71 12% .46 81% .37
Jan
6		 Fresno St. F A+ F D+ C 20% 26% 54% F+ D+ F D+ F B- F C F D+ D+ F B- D 48% 17% 35% D- D F C- F A+ C B C+
0.87 100% 8% 30% -3 -2 0.92 18% 1.0 .18 17% .13 71% .10 1.10 64% 50% 31% +3 +1 1.11 42% 1.0 .42 25% .29 71% .21
Jan
10		 Grand Canyon D- C F C+ C+ 29% 31% 40% D C C- D+ D+ D A- F B- B- F A B+ D- 35% 8% 56% D- D- C- F+ D B+ C F D+
0.83 54% 29% 33% -5 -2 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 20% .39 64% .25 1.09 82% 25% 30% +4 +1 1.13 33% 1.2 .41 20% .32 83% .27
Jan
13		 Air Force C- C D+ B D+ 36% 26% 38% C- D+ C- A- B- C A+ B A+ D F+ A+ D+ D+ 36% 17% 48% B- C- F B- D- A D+ F F
1.14 60% 36% 38% +2 -1 1.05 29% 1.3 .36 15% .46 75% .34 1.01 67% 14% 35% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.0 .32 26% .33 80% .27
Jan
17		 UNLV C D+ F A+ B 38% 35% 26% F C+ A+ F C- F+ A+ A+ A+ F D F F F 36% 19% 45% C+ F A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ F B-
1.10 54% 25% 56% +2 -2 1.03 43% 0.7 .30 21% .47 86% .41 1.35 65% 56% 52% +18 0 1.38 22% 0.4 .09 12% .24 92% .22
Jan
20		 Nevada F+ F D+ F F 28% 28% 44% F+ F C+ F D A+ C- C C- F D+ B F F 40% 24% 36% D+ F C- F F F C+ D- C-
0.88 43% 36% 18% -15 -2 0.68 28% 0.9 .25 11% .31 71% .22 1.41 60% 33% 50% +8 0 1.18 35% 1.5 .52 8% .37 81% .30
Jan
24		 Wyoming D+ F D A- C- 27% 23% 50% F D F D- F A F C F+ A- D- F A+ B 59% 8% 33% F B- C- A+ A+ C+ F F F
0.98 36% 33% 38% -4 -1 0.92 15% 0.8 .13 13% .29 69% .20 1.04 65% 67% 15% -3 +3 1.03 37% 0.2 .07 17% .52 89% .46
Jan
27		 Boise St. F D- F C F+ 24% 33% 43% D- F+ C A- B- D- A- F C F F F A+ D- 74% 2% 24% F F F F F C- F A- D-
0.87 50% 25% 33% -7 -3 0.84 22% 1.3 .27 18% .33 56% .18 1.33 71% 100% 27% +8 +5 1.28 45% 1.4 .64 15% .44 72% .32
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 New Mexico A+ C- A+ C+ A- 17% 26% 57% D- B B+ A+ A+ A+ D+ C+ D+ F F A+ F F 50% 13% 37% D+ F B- F F F F F F
1.25 56% 57% 33% +4 -2 1.06 32% 1.4 .44 8% .26 73% .19 1.41 70% 17% 47% +10 +2 1.26 28% 1.6 .44 9% .42 88% .36
Feb
7		 Colorado St. F F D F F 33% 35% 32% F+ F F A+ F+ A+ F A+ D A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 40% 10% 50% D A+ C- F F+ D- C- B- C-
0.87 42% 35% 17% -15 -2 0.68 8% 2.7 .21 6% .18 91% .16 0.99 58% 20% 17% -15 +1 0.75 32% 1.3 .43 15% .36 75% .27
Feb
10		 UNLV C+ F C- A D 26% 37% 37% F F+ D+ A+ A- A+ D A C- D+ B F C C+ 41% 20% 39% C C+ D D D- D- C D+ C-
1.11 29% 35% 40% -5 -3 0.85 27% 1.6 .44 10% .33 80% .26 1.21 52% 60% 35% +3 0 1.08 36% 1.0 .36 13% .36 71% .26
Feb
14		 Grand Canyon A+ B- A+ B+ A+ 26% 34% 40% F+ A D+ A+ B- A+ A A+ A+ F F F A+ F 38% 26% 36% B+ F F F F B+ D F F+
1.22 58% 50% 37% +6 -3 1.09 21% 1.5 .31 11% .40 83% .33 1.45 83% 67% 24% +11 -1 1.23 54% 1.6 .88 20% .37 84% .31
Feb
17		 Nevada A F A+ A+ A+ 16% 31% 53% F A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ C+ F C- A- F B+ A+ A+ 36% 28% 36% C+ A+ C+ A B+ A+ F C+ F
1.22 38% 53% 46% +11 -3 1.18 39% 1.6 .61 21% .34 63% .21 1.00 71% 31% 12% -10 -1 0.81 33% 0.8 .28 21% .57 75% .43
Feb
21		 Boise St. C+ C+ B F D- 27% 36% 38% F+ F+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F D- D- F F F 48% 8% 44% F F A+ F C+ D- B+ F C+
1.05 60% 45% 19% -5 -3 0.86 27% 1.5 .41 9% .12 100% .12 1.28 67% 75% 41% +12 +2 1.30 26% 1.3 .35 12% .29 88% .26
Feb
24		 Air Force A A+ F+ A+ A+ 16% 39% 45% F B+ C C+ C B+ B- A+ A F F+ A C F+ 55% 8% 37% F F F F F F F C F+
1.30 75% 32% 55% +14 -4 1.22 29% 1.1 .32 12% .33 89% .29 1.21 67% 25% 33% +3 +3 1.14 31% 1.3 .41 15% .39 64% .25
Feb
28		 Colorado St. C+ B- A C+ A- 17% 42% 42% F B- D C D A+ A+ B A+ F F F F F 48% 12% 40% F+ F A+ A+ A+ C- F F+ F
1.15 63% 50% 35% +6 -4 1.06 22% 1.1 .25 9% .43 72% .31 1.34 80% 60% 53% +25 +2 1.55 22% 0.3 .06 17% .46 83% .38
Mar
3		 Fresno St. C- B- F F D+ 39% 26% 35% D+ D+ C- D+ D+ A+ B+ F D D- A+ D+ F C- 29% 31% 40% A+ C C A B+ F F D F
1.00 64% 27% 25% -6 -1 0.89 27% 1.0 .27 7% .30 47% .14 1.20 38% 41% 45% +2 -2 1.02 29% 0.8 .22 9% .39 79% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 70.4 29.6 100.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 70.4 29.6 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16 29.6% 29.6
3-17 70.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 70.4
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 62.2%