Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#179
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#199
Pace75.3#47
Improvement-1.3#281

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#210
First Shot-0.1#179
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#269
Layup/Dunks+2.3#108
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#317
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#155
Freethrows-0.6#215
Improvement+0.2#163

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#161
First Shot+0.6#148
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#215
Layups/Dunks-0.3#188
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#315
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#56
Freethrows-0.5#219
Improvement-1.5#309
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 1.0% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.6 13.1
.500 or above 18.3% 39.7% 17.6%
.500 or above in Conference 16.4% 26.9% 16.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 8.7% 5.1% 8.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.4% 1.0% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas (Away) - 3.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 62 - 9
Quad 35 - 67 - 15
Quad 46 - 313 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 278 South Carolina Upstate L 66-67 78%     0 - 1 -10.4 -10.9 +0.4
  Sat, Nov 8 286 Long Beach St. W 82-62 79%     1 - 1 +10.2 +2.3 +7.5
  Wed, Nov 12 102 UC San Diego L 73-78 38%     1 - 2 -3.2 -1.9 -1.2
  Sat, Nov 15 90 Utah Valley W 75-74 35%     2 - 2 +3.7 +4.0 -0.3
  Tue, Nov 18 144 Stephen F. Austin W 80-78 52%     3 - 2 +0.1 +10.2 -10.0
  Fri, Nov 21 216 New Orleans W 85-76 68%     4 - 2 +2.7 +0.9 +1.0
  Wed, Nov 26 298 Pepperdine W 76-53 73%     5 - 2 +15.3 +1.8 +13.9
  Sun, Nov 30 280 Cal St. Bakersfield L 71-76 78%     5 - 3 -14.5 -7.0 -7.5
  Sat, Dec 6 22 @Arkansas L 69-88 3%    
  Wed, Dec 10 253 @Cal St. Northridge W 81-80 53%    
  Sat, Dec 20 131 @UNLV L 80-86 28%    
  Tue, Dec 30 51 Utah St. L 72-81 20%    
  Sat, Jan 3 105 Nevada L 73-76 41%    
  Tue, Jan 6 185 @San Jose St. L 72-75 41%    
  Sat, Jan 10 52 @San Diego St. L 69-83 10%    
  Tue, Jan 13 74 Colorado St. L 72-78 29%    
  Sat, Jan 17 106 Wyoming L 75-78 40%    
  Wed, Jan 21 103 @New Mexico L 75-84 21%    
  Sat, Jan 24 94 Grand Canyon L 72-76 37%    
  Sat, Jan 31 332 @Air Force W 73-67 71%    
  Tue, Feb 3 131 UNLV L 82-83 49%    
  Sat, Feb 7 105 @Nevada L 70-79 22%    
  Tue, Feb 10 51 @Utah St. L 69-84 9%    
  Sat, Feb 14 332 Air Force W 76-64 86%    
  Tue, Feb 17 106 @Wyoming L 72-81 22%    
  Sat, Feb 21 103 New Mexico L 78-81 40%    
  Tue, Feb 24 74 @Colorado St. L 69-81 15%    
  Sat, Feb 28 59 Boise St. L 68-76 25%    
  Tue, Mar 3 185 San Jose St. W 75-72 62%    
  Sat, Mar 7 94 @Grand Canyon L 69-79 20%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.7 0.1 3.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 2.7 1.5 0.2 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.6 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.0 3.6 0.6 0.0 11.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 3.1 6.3 4.9 1.1 0.0 16.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.6 8.1 4.8 1.1 0.1 21.7 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 4.4 7.2 6.7 3.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 23.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.7 12th
Total 0.1 0.9 2.8 5.9 10.0 13.0 14.8 13.8 12.6 9.8 7.0 4.3 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 81.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 72.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 33.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 0.1
15-5 0.2% 2.9% 2.9% 11.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.6% 2.6% 2.6% 12.0 0.0 0.6
13-7 1.5% 4.1% 4.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 1.4
12-8 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 12.2 0.1 0.0 2.6
11-9 4.3% 1.5% 1.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3
10-10 7.0% 0.9% 0.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9
9-11 9.8% 0.5% 0.5% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7
8-12 12.6% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 12.6
7-13 13.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.8
6-14 14.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.8
5-15 13.0% 13.0
4-16 10.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.0
3-17 5.9% 5.9
2-18 2.8% 2.8
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.0%