Preseason Rankings
Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#212
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.1#182
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#290
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#131
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 10.8% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.5 14.2
.500 or above 60.2% 73.4% 49.0%
.500 or above in Conference 66.7% 75.1% 59.7%
Conference Champion 8.5% 11.4% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 2.4% 5.4%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round8.0% 10.9% 5.6%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Home) - 45.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 64 - 8
Quad 413 - 616 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2025 140   Arkansas St. L 70-71 46%    
  Nov 11, 2025 165   @ Rice L 65-70 31%    
  Nov 14, 2025 175   Abilene Christian W 68-67 55%    
  Nov 18, 2025 198   @ Fresno St. L 70-74 37%    
  Nov 21, 2025 239   @ Pepperdine L 69-71 44%    
  Nov 29, 2025 202   @ Texas Arlington L 67-71 37%    
  Dec 03, 2025 270   UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-69 70%    
  Dec 07, 2025 348   Louisiana Monroe W 74-62 85%    
  Dec 17, 2025 221   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-66 62%    
  Dec 29, 2025 333   @ East Texas A&M W 68-64 65%    
  Dec 31, 2025 255   @ Northwestern St. L 64-65 47%    
  Jan 03, 2026 243   @ SE Louisiana L 67-68 45%    
  Jan 05, 2026 96   @ McNeese St. L 60-71 17%    
  Jan 10, 2026 289   Houston Christian W 69-62 73%    
  Jan 12, 2026 209   Incarnate Word W 68-65 60%    
  Jan 17, 2026 312   @ New Orleans W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 19, 2026 233   @ Nicholls St. L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 24, 2026 218   @ Lamar L 63-66 42%    
  Jan 26, 2026 255   Northwestern St. W 67-62 66%    
  Jan 31, 2026 243   SE Louisiana W 70-65 65%    
  Feb 02, 2026 96   McNeese St. L 63-68 33%    
  Feb 07, 2026 218   Lamar W 66-63 61%    
  Feb 09, 2026 333   East Texas A&M W 71-61 80%    
  Feb 14, 2026 270   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 71-72 50%    
  Feb 16, 2026 221   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66-69 42%    
  Feb 21, 2026 233   Nicholls St. W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 23, 2026 312   New Orleans W 76-68 76%    
  Feb 28, 2026 289   @ Houston Christian W 66-65 54%    
  Mar 02, 2026 209   @ Incarnate Word L 65-68 40%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 12 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 8.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.7 3.8 3.2 1.6 0.5 0.1 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.8 4.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.3 3.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.0 2.8 0.9 0.1 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.4 2.1 0.5 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 6.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 2.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.1 3.5 4.6 5.6 7.0 8.2 9.2 9.7 9.7 9.4 8.5 6.9 5.5 3.6 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
21-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
20-2 92.7% 1.1    1.0 0.1
19-3 77.8% 1.8    1.4 0.4 0.0
18-4 52.9% 1.9    1.3 0.6 0.1
17-5 31.0% 1.7    0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
16-6 13.1% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-7 4.3% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 8.5% 8.5 5.4 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.1% 64.2% 64.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
21-1 0.5% 56.6% 56.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
20-2 1.2% 49.6% 49.6% 12.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6
19-3 2.3% 37.5% 37.5% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.5
18-4 3.6% 29.4% 29.4% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 2.6
17-5 5.5% 24.1% 24.1% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.2
16-6 6.9% 18.8% 18.8% 14.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 5.6
15-7 8.5% 11.6% 11.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 7.5
14-8 9.4% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 8.7
13-9 9.7% 4.0% 4.0% 16.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.3
12-10 9.7% 2.5% 2.5% 17.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.5
11-11 9.2% 1.4% 1.4% 18.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.1
10-12 8.2% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.1
9-13 7.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.9
8-14 5.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.6
7-15 4.6% 4.6
6-16 3.5% 3.5
5-17 2.1% 2.1
4-18 1.2% 1.2
3-19 0.7% 0.7
2-20 0.4% 0.4
1-21 0.1% 0.1
0-22 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 2.2 1.8 0.8 92.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 7.0 100.0