Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#149
Expected Predictive Rating+5.9#97
Pace78.7#17
Improvement+3.4#17

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#150
First Shot-2.8#261
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#31
Layup/Dunks-2.7#272
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#318
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#151
Freethrows+1.5#94
Improvement+2.0#42

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#166
First Shot-3.0#277
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#28
Layups/Dunks+0.0#175
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#186
Freethrows-0.5#220
Improvement+1.5#70
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.4% 20.5% 15.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 95.0% 98.1% 91.7%
.500 or above in Conference 90.6% 93.0% 88.0%
Conference Champion 25.8% 29.5% 21.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round18.3% 20.5% 15.9%
Second Round1.2% 1.4% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Away) - 52.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 35 - 46 - 7
Quad 414 - 320 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 190 @Ohio W 89-85 47%     1 - 0 +5.1 +9.0 -4.2
  Fri, Nov 7 142 @Stephen F. Austin L 65-90 35%     1 - 1 -20.8 -7.6 -12.0
  Tue, Nov 11 255 @Missouri St. W 86-85 60%     2 - 1 -1.2 +2.1 -3.4
  Wed, Nov 19 41 @St. Mary's L 72-85 9%     2 - 2 +1.9 +8.8 -7.0
  Fri, Nov 21 40 @SMU L 69-100 9%     2 - 3 -16.0 -6.0 -6.2
  Mon, Nov 24 239 Jacksonville St. W 74-63 77%     3 - 3 +3.6 -2.5 +5.6
  Fri, Nov 28 155 North Dakota St. W 85-80 OT 64%     4 - 3 +1.8 +2.9 -1.6
  Tue, Dec 2 191 Texas Arlington W 83-63 69%     5 - 3 +15.1 +6.7 +7.7
  Sat, Dec 6 315 @Arkansas Little Rock W 90-78 72%     6 - 3 +6.4 +12.9 -6.8
  Sat, Dec 13 213 @Rice W 76-75 52%    
  Wed, Dec 17 237 @Texas St. W 75-73 56%    
  Sat, Dec 20 224 @Southern Miss W 80-79 54%    
  Sun, Jan 4 177 James Madison W 81-76 67%    
  Wed, Jan 7 147 Troy W 79-76 60%    
  Sat, Jan 10 237 Texas St. W 78-70 76%    
  Thu, Jan 15 166 @South Alabama L 74-76 43%    
  Sat, Jan 17 147 @Troy L 76-79 38%    
  Thu, Jan 22 232 @Georgia Southern W 83-82 55%    
  Sat, Jan 24 338 @Georgia St. W 81-73 78%    
  Wed, Jan 28 212 Old Dominion W 83-76 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 172 Marshall W 84-80 65%    
  Wed, Feb 4 235 @Coastal Carolina W 79-77 56%    
  Wed, Feb 11 360 Louisiana Monroe W 88-70 94%    
  Sat, Feb 14 166 South Alabama W 77-73 64%    
  Thu, Feb 19 319 @Louisiana W 75-69 72%    
  Sat, Feb 21 360 @Louisiana Monroe W 85-73 85%    
  Tue, Feb 24 224 Southern Miss W 83-76 74%    
  Fri, Feb 27 319 Louisiana W 78-66 86%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.4 7.2 7.4 5.0 1.8 0.4 25.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.6 7.2 4.8 1.4 0.1 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 6.2 3.8 0.7 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.3 3.9 0.6 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.3 4.2 0.8 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 3.9 1.3 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.9 1.9 0.1 5.5 7th
8th 0.2 1.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.8 7.4 10.7 13.7 15.0 15.0 12.7 8.8 5.1 1.8 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.0
16-2 97.1% 5.0    4.5 0.5
15-3 84.2% 7.4    5.4 1.8 0.1
14-4 56.5% 7.2    3.2 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.7% 3.4    0.7 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.8% 25.8 16.1 6.8 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 38.9% 38.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
17-1 1.8% 47.6% 47.6% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9
16-2 5.1% 43.5% 43.5% 13.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.9
15-3 8.8% 38.0% 38.0% 13.4 0.3 1.5 1.4 0.2 5.5
14-4 12.7% 32.9% 32.9% 13.7 0.1 1.4 2.2 0.5 0.0 8.5
13-5 15.0% 23.1% 23.1% 14.0 0.0 0.8 1.9 0.7 0.0 11.6
12-6 15.0% 14.1% 14.1% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 12.9
11-7 13.7% 8.7% 8.7% 14.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 12.5
10-8 10.7% 4.3% 4.3% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 10.2
9-9 7.4% 3.3% 3.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.1
8-10 4.8% 1.5% 1.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7
7-11 2.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.5
6-12 1.2% 1.2
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.8 7.8 2.8 0.2 81.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.3 5.0 5.0 47.5 40.0 2.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%