Marshall
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#172
Expected Predictive Rating+1.0#153
Pace74.6#60
Improvement-4.6#360

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#169
First Shot-1.0#208
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#142
Layup/Dunks-3.7#302
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#110
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#110
Freethrows-0.9#235
Improvement-1.1#272

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#188
First Shot-3.3#287
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#42
Layups/Dunks+3.2#72
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#315
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#183
Freethrows-4.2#352
Improvement-3.5#357
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.5% 14.7% 10.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 83.5% 90.8% 76.4%
.500 or above in Conference 82.7% 86.5% 79.1%
Conference Champion 15.2% 18.0% 12.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round12.5% 14.6% 10.4%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Home) - 49.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 35 - 65 - 8
Quad 413 - 418 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 167 @Massachusetts W 78-72 37%     1 - 0 +8.2 -2.4 +9.7
  Sat, Nov 8 163 @Toledo W 85-73 37%     2 - 0 +14.4 +8.8 +5.5
  Wed, Nov 12 184 Elon W 96-89 64%     3 - 0 +2.3 +9.0 -7.3
  Sat, Nov 15 23 @Virginia L 78-104 5%     3 - 1 -8.1 +5.6 -11.8
  Thu, Nov 20 353 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98-70 91%     4 - 1 +12.2 +10.6 -0.8
  Sun, Nov 23 324 Mercyhurst W 69-60 86%     5 - 1 -3.5 -1.5 -1.1
  Wed, Nov 26 161 Lipscomb L 67-90 59%     5 - 2 -26.5 -12.9 -11.3
  Wed, Dec 3 109 @UNC Wilmington L 69-70 22%     5 - 3 +5.9 +6.7 -0.9
  Sat, Dec 6 190 @Ohio L 81-88 42%     5 - 4 -5.9 +4.4 -10.1
  Wed, Dec 10 128 Western Kentucky L 80-81 49%    
  Sat, Dec 13 159 Wright St. W 76-74 58%    
  Sat, Dec 20 147 @Troy L 73-78 33%    
  Wed, Dec 31 338 Georgia St. W 81-68 89%    
  Sat, Jan 3 282 Appalachian St. W 74-66 79%    
  Wed, Jan 7 177 @James Madison L 75-78 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 338 @Georgia St. W 78-71 74%    
  Wed, Jan 14 235 Coastal Carolina W 79-73 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 177 James Madison W 78-75 62%    
  Thu, Jan 22 360 Louisiana Monroe W 85-69 93%    
  Sat, Jan 24 166 South Alabama W 74-71 60%    
  Wed, Jan 28 237 @Texas St. W 73-72 51%    
  Sat, Jan 31 149 @Arkansas St. L 80-84 35%    
  Wed, Feb 4 224 Southern Miss W 81-75 69%    
  Wed, Feb 11 212 @Old Dominion L 77-78 47%    
  Sat, Feb 14 232 @Georgia Southern L 80-81 50%    
  Thu, Feb 19 282 @Appalachian St. W 71-69 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 235 @Coastal Carolina W 77-76 51%    
  Tue, Feb 24 212 Old Dominion W 80-75 68%    
  Fri, Feb 27 232 Georgia Southern W 84-78 71%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.8 4.2 2.4 0.8 0.1 15.2 1st
2nd 0.4 3.2 5.8 3.7 1.0 0.1 14.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.4 6.1 3.5 0.6 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 5.5 4.0 0.5 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.9 4.5 0.8 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 5.0 1.4 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.2 2.4 0.2 7.7 7th
8th 0.4 2.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 2.8 0.8 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.1 0.1 3.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.1 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.8 4.8 7.8 10.7 13.2 14.4 14.5 12.2 9.0 5.3 2.5 0.8 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 95.7% 2.4    2.1 0.3
15-3 80.1% 4.2    3.0 1.1 0.1
14-4 52.7% 4.8    2.2 1.9 0.6 0.1
13-5 19.9% 2.4    0.4 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.2% 15.2 8.7 4.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 53.5% 53.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.8% 46.2% 46.2% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4
16-2 2.5% 41.6% 41.6% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.5
15-3 5.3% 35.5% 35.5% 13.6 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 3.4
14-4 9.0% 29.2% 29.2% 14.0 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.7 0.0 6.4
13-5 12.2% 22.0% 22.0% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.0 0.1 9.5
12-6 14.5% 14.4% 14.4% 14.6 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.2 12.4
11-7 14.4% 6.7% 6.7% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 13.4
10-8 13.2% 3.3% 3.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 12.8
9-9 10.7% 2.1% 2.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.5
8-10 7.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.7
7-11 4.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.8
6-12 2.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.8
5-13 1.2% 1.2
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.1 3.9 0.6 87.5 0.0%