Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +6.1 91
Results Rating +18.8 17
Consistency 0.11 9
Pace 73.3 58
Improvement +0.0 185

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 79 B+ D+ B- B- C+
Defense C+ 125 C- B C+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 209 A- 67% 22 +2.8 81
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 266 B- 41% 81 -0.5 210
Three Pointers 45% 103 B 37% 71 +3.6 63
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 154 B+ +5.5 29
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.14 36
Second Chance D- 23.1% 345 B 1.13 47 D+ 0.26 286
Opponents' Steals C 9.3% 170
Other Turnovers B 5.9% 39
Turnovers B- 15.3% 94
Freethrows B- 0.32 117 B- 75% 102 B- 0.24 96
Total Offense B- +4.4 79

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D- 37% 334 B- 8.9% 72
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 11% 351 C 5.1% 196
Three Pointers B- 88% 102 C- 1.1% 242
Total D+ 50% 304 B- 4.7% 81


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 246 D+ 62% 278 +0.2 189
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 121 C- 39% 231 +0.9 260
Three Pointers 41% 172 C 34% 170 +0.0 183
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 117 C- +1.3 236
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 214
Second Chance C+ 29.1% 135 B+ 0.91 27 B 0.26 61
Turnovers from Steals C 9.7% 167
Other Turnovers C+ 7.6% 125
Turnovers C+ 17.3% 140
Freethrows B- 0.28 94 D+ 74% 290 C+ 0.21 124
Total Defense C+ +1.8 125

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 43% 69 D+ 8.2% 294
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 89 C- 3.9% 230
Three Pointers C+ 81% 104 C+ 1.1% 114
Total B- 50% 76 D+ 4.3% 282

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.3 79 17.1 152
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 261 0.13 58
Consistency 0.10 23 0.09 6
Improvement -2.5 305 +2.5 66

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Longshot
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 100 91 80
Results Rating Rank 29 23 15
Conference Record 17 - 1 18 - 0 18 - 0
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 11
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39% 42% 33%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12% 14% 6%
Average Seed 11.3 11.3 11.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four8% 9% 4%
First Round34% 35% 30%
Second Round5% 5% 3%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Ohio (Away) - 73.3% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 02 - 0
Quad 310 - 112 - 1
Quad 417 - 029 - 1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 248 Old Dominion W 87 - 72 90% -3  34% 1 - 0 B- +7 C +2 A- F D+ B +5 F+ A A+
 Sat, Nov 15 344 @Air Force W 76 - 61 92% +10  99% 2 - 0 B- +5 C +1 B+ F+ D+ B +5 B+ B D-
 Thu, Nov 20 290 Mercyhurst W 76 - 71 93% +5  95% 3 - 0 D+ -5 C+ +2 C D C+ D- -7 F C B
 Sun, Nov 23 332 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 111 - 84 96% +16  88% 4 - 0 B+ +12 A +12 A+ F A C- -3 A F F
 Wed, Nov 26 297 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 71 90% -1  37% 5 - 0 C+ +3 D+ -3 C F C B+ +5 B- F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 346 Maine W 93 - 61 97% +21  99% 6 - 0 A- +16 A +13 B A+ D- B- +3 D+ F+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 246 @UNC Asheville W 90 - 87 OT 78% +6  70% 7 - 0 C +1 B- +5 B F A+ D+ -4 F B D+
 Sat, Dec 13 294 @Eastern Kentucky W 79 - 69 85% +9  91% 8 - 0 B- +5 C +0 C C+ B- B +5 C+ B- B+
 Tue, Dec 16 157 @Wright St. W 83 - 76 61% +8  96% 9 - 0 B +10 B- +5 A+ F B- B +5 B A D-
 Sat, Dec 20 291 @Ball St. W 86 - 77 84% +3  67% 10 - 0 1 - 0 C+ +4 A +12 A D D D- -7 F A+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 166 @Bowling Green W 93 - 83 64% +13  82% 11 - 0 2 - 0 B+ +12 A +14 A+ B+ F+ C- -2 D C C+
 Sat, Jan 3 71 Akron W 76 - 73 53% -1  34% 12 - 0 3 - 0 B +8 C- -1 F A+ D A +9 A C- A
 Tue, Jan 6 280 Western Michigan W 87 - 76 92% +6  90% 13 - 0 4 - 0 C +1 C +1 B- C F C+ +0 C A D+
 Fri, Jan 9 150 @Toledo W 87 - 73 60% +17  99% 14 - 0 5 - 0 A- +17 A +11 A+ C- A- B+ +6 B A C+
 Tue, Jan 13 259 Central Michigan W 100 - 61 91% +17  98% 15 - 0 6 - 0 A+ +30 A+ +20 A+ B A- A +11 B- A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 212 Buffalo W 105 - 102 OT 87% -0  44% 16 - 0 7 - 0 C- -3 B +7 A+ F A F -10 F A B-
 Tue, Jan 20 152 @Kent St. W 107 - 101 OT 61% +6  79% 17 - 0 8 - 0 B +9 A+ +16 A+ F A+ D- -7 D- D- C+
 Tue, Jan 27 194 Massachusetts W 86 - 84 85% -3  15% 18 - 0 9 - 0 C- -3 A- +11 C- A+ B+ F -14 F+ F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 339 Northern Illinois W 85 - 61 97% +3  49% 19 - 0 10 - 0 B +9 C +1 B- F A A- +7 D A+ B-
 Tue, Feb 3 212 @Buffalo W 73 - 71 72% +4  81% 20 - 0 11 - 0 C+ +2 D+ -3 B+ F D+ B+ +5 F+ A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 189 @Marshall W 90 - 74 69% +13  99% 21 - 0 A- +17 A- +11 A- A+ D+ B+ +6 B B+ D+
 Fri, Feb 13 222 Ohio W 90 - 74 88% +10  94% 22 - 0 12 - 0 B +9 B+ +8 B+ A A- C+ +1 C B D-
 Tue, Feb 17 194 @Massachusetts W 86 - 77 69% +5  91% 23 - 0 13 - 0 B +10 B+ +9 A- F A+ C+ +1 F A- C
 Fri, Feb 20 166 Bowling Green W 91 - 77 82% +10  90% 24 - 0 14 - 0 B +10 A- +11 A+ B- B+ C -1 C B- C
 Tue, Feb 24 247 @Eastern Michigan W 74 - 64 78% +12  99% 25 - 0 15 - 0 B +8 C- -1 F+ B- A+ A +9 A B- D
 Fri, Feb 27 280 @Western Michigan W 69 - 67 82% -3  12% 26 - 0 16 - 0 C -2 F+ -8 C- F C B+ +7 B- C C-
 Tue, Mar 3 150 Toledo W 74 - 72 80% +6  100% 27 - 0 17 - 0 C -1 D+ -4 A F F+ B- +3 B+ D C-
 Fri, Mar 6 222 @Ohio W 84 - 77 73%
Totals 28 - 0 18 - 0 +6 B- +4 D+ B+ C+ C+ +2 B B- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- A- B- B B+ 38% 30% 45% C+ B+ D- B D+ B- B- B- B- C+ D+ C- C C- 37% 22% 41% C+ C- C+ B+ B C+ B- D+ C+
1.15 67% 41% 37% +5 0 1.14 23% 1.1 .26 15% .32 75% .24 1.06 62% 39% 34% +1 0 1.04 29% 0.9 .26 17% .28 74% .24
Nov
3		 Old Dominion C A D+ D B 55% 6% 39% A+ A- D- F F D+ A A A+ B C+ D+ F F 33% 27% 41% C F+ A B+ A A+ C F D+
1.16 71% 33% 30% +5 +3 1.18 25% 0.6 .16 16% .43 81% .35 0.96 56% 38% 45% +6 -1 1.12 17% 1.0 .17 25% .29 81% .23
Nov
15		 Air Force C D+ A+ A A- 26% 20% 54% C- B+ C+ F F+ D+ F F F B A+ F B+ A- 48% 15% 37% D+ B+ A- D B D- F C F
1.14 57% 64% 41% +11 -1 1.22 31% 0.6 .19 16% .09 60% .05 0.91 41% 57% 29% -8 +1 0.89 17% 1.2 .19 18% .40 64% .25
Nov
20		 Mercyhurst C+ A+ F F C 42% 18% 40% C C D- C- D C+ A+ A+ A+ D- F F C- F 28% 28% 45% D+ F D- A- C B D+ B+ C-
1.16 74% 25% 28% +1 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 17% .57 84% .48 1.08 69% 54% 33% +7 -2 1.13 31% 0.9 .28 18% .24 69% .17
Nov
23		 Arkansas Pine Bluff A B C+ A+ A+ 56% 9% 35% A A+ F C F A A- A+ A+ C- A+ C- A- A+ 44% 21% 34% D- A C+ F F F D F F
1.36 66% 40% 50% +13 +3 1.33 24% 1.1 .28 11% .44 88% .39 1.03 41% 38% 29% -10 0 0.82 24% 1.6 .38 13% .35 84% .30
Nov
26		 UNC Greensboro D+ A+ C D- C- 33% 9% 58% B+ C F F F C B A- A- B+ B- D+ A- B 33% 22% 46% C B- D F F A+ F F+ F
1.14 78% 40% 31% +4 +1 1.13 21% 0.7 .15 14% .31 79% .24 0.99 53% 40% 29% -5 -1 0.91 30% 1.3 .39 24% .45 76% .35
Dec
6		 Maine A C F A+ B 39% 14% 47% B- B A+ A+ A+ D- F A+ D+ B- C+ A- D D+ 40% 22% 38% C D+ D F F+ A+ A- B- A-
1.31 60% 29% 42% +5 +1 1.14 50% 1.5 .74 21% .23 85% .20 0.86 56% 30% 35% -2 0 0.98 21% 1.3 .27 28% .25 62% .16
Dec
10		 UNC Asheville B- A+ C- B B+ 36% 22% 41% D B F A+ F A+ C+ A- B D+ D- D F F 29% 34% 36% C- F A+ F B D+ C- F D
1.15 71% 38% 38% +7 0 1.16 12% 1.3 .15 6% .33 75% .25 1.12 65% 45% 43% +9 -2 1.16 10% 2.3 .24 15% .33 77% .26
Dec
13		 Eastern Kentucky C B C+ B- C 38% 20% 43% C+ C F A+ C+ B- F F F B B B D C- 13% 31% 56% A+ C+ F A+ B- B+ F D- F
1.17 67% 45% 38% +7 0 1.16 23% 1.6 .35 13% .15 33% .05 1.02 50% 33% 37% 0 -3 0.96 43% 0.7 .30 21% .41 77% .32
Dec
16		 Wright St. B- A+ F A+ A+ 48% 15% 38% B+ A+ F F F B- A+ F A- B F B A+ B+ 46% 21% 32% D+ B C+ A+ A D- F+ D- F
1.15 74% 14% 56% +16 +1 1.38 10% 0.0 .00 15% .46 61% .28 1.05 69% 33% 17% -4 0 0.95 31% 0.8 .23 14% .38 79% .30
Dec
20		 Ball St. A D+ F A+ A 33% 21% 46% C A F A+ D D A+ A+ A+ D- F F C+ F 35% 30% 35% A F A+ B+ A+ F C- F D+
1.23 56% 20% 55% +10 0 1.21 20% 1.4 .28 20% .39 95% .38 1.10 68% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.11 13% 0.8 .09 10% .29 78% .22
Dec
30		 Bowling Green A A- A+ A+ A+ 44% 17% 40% C+ A+ B- A B+ F+ A A+ A+ C- F F A+ D- 47% 18% 35% C+ D C C+ C C+ D- B D+
1.23 67% 50% 47% +14 +1 1.31 31% 1.3 .38 21% .40 92% .37 1.10 69% 50% 26% +3 +1 1.11 28% 0.8 .22 17% .37 70% .26
Jan
3		 Akron C- C F F F 25% 10% 65% C F C- A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ A D+ B+ A+ A+ 32% 11% 57% C A C+ D C- A A F B
1.06 58% 20% 26% -10 0 0.83 31% 1.5 .47 21% .53 83% .44 1.02 65% 33% 27% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.3 .43 21% .18 90% .16
Jan
6		 Western Michigan C A+ B- F B- 43% 11% 47% B- B- B D- C F A+ A+ A+ C+ C F A+ B- 52% 19% 30% F C C- A+ A D+ F+ C+ D-
1.18 80% 40% 27% +5 +2 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 19% .57 79% .45 1.03 54% 50% 25% -4 +1 0.96 30% 0.6 .19 15% .35 73% .25
Jan
9		 Toledo A A A+ A A+ 39% 13% 48% C+ A+ D- B+ C- A- F A+ F+ B+ A B+ F C 28% 41% 31% A+ B C- A+ A C+ F+ F F
1.25 73% 57% 41% +13 +1 1.30 28% 1.1 .31 14% .13 88% .12 1.05 47% 36% 47% +2 -3 1.00 30% 0.6 .18 16% .34 85% .29
Jan
13		 Central Michigan A+ A A+ A+ A+ 37% 16% 47% C- A+ F A+ B A- A+ A+ A+ A B- D B+ C+ 33% 35% 33% A- B- B- A+ A+ B+ B+ B- B+
1.43 72% 50% 48% +17 0 1.37 24% 2.0 .48 13% .46 89% .41 0.87 53% 44% 29% -2 -2 0.94 26% 0.4 .11 21% .22 67% .15
Jan
17		 Buffalo B A+ F A+ A+ 48% 10% 43% B+ A+ F D- F A A F C+ F D+ F F F 35% 25% 40% A- F B- A+ A B- C F D
1.26 76% 17% 46% +14 +2 1.34 15% 0.8 .12 13% .36 62% .22 1.22 62% 53% 50% +15 -1 1.30 24% 0.8 .18 18% .34 83% .28
Jan
20		 Kent St. A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 40% 15% 45% B- A+ D- F F A+ A+ F B+ D- F D- B- D- 43% 13% 45% D- D- F B- D- C+ F F+ F
1.30 84% 67% 32% +13 +1 1.31 24% 0.7 .16 7% .44 65% .29 1.23 67% 43% 32% +3 +1 1.11 44% 1.0 .44 19% .47 81% .38
Jan
27		 Massachusetts A- C- A+ C- C- 27% 9% 64% C+ C- B A+ A+ B+ A+ C A+ F D F F F 27% 33% 39% A+ F+ D- D+ F+ F+ B- F C-
1.28 58% 50% 32% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.7 .58 13% .65 74% .48 1.25 64% 53% 40% +10 -2 1.18 36% 1.3 .45 15% .30 76% .23
Jan
31		 Northern Illinois C A- A+ F B- 42% 12% 46% C+ B- D+ F F A C- A C+ A- F C- A D- 39% 16% 45% C+ D A+ A+ A+ B- B A+ A
1.16 71% 71% 27% +5 +1 1.14 29% 0.5 .14 12% .31 80% .25 0.83 70% 38% 26% -1 +1 1.02 17% 0.5 .09 23% .30 53% .16
Feb
3		 Buffalo D+ A+ A+ F+ A- 43% 20% 37% C- B+ F F F D+ F F F B+ F C+ F F 35% 17% 48% C+ F+ F A+ A+ A+ C D C-
1.07 78% 64% 30% +12 0 1.26 18% 0.4 .07 19% .11 50% .05 1.04 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 36% 0.2 .06 22% .34 78% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Marshall A- A+ F A A- 40% 23% 36% C+ A- B+ A+ A+ D+ C+ B B- B+ F A A+ B+ 32% 20% 48% D B F A+ B+ D+ D A+ C+
1.28 79% 18% 41% +8 0 1.17 41% 1.6 .66 18% .37 76% .28 1.05 78% 27% 26% -2 0 0.98 39% 0.7 .28 16% .29 59% .17
Feb
13		 Ohio B+ B- F A+ B+ 48% 20% 31% C+ B+ F+ A+ A A- A+ C+ A+ C+ C+ F A+ C 34% 26% 40% B- C A+ F+ B D- C B+ C+
1.25 62% 27% 47% +6 +1 1.15 27% 1.9 .50 13% .45 75% .33 1.03 56% 64% 24% 0 -1 1.00 19% 1.1 .22 13% .32 65% .21
Feb
17		 Massachusetts B+ C A+ A+ A 37% 18% 45% C- A- F A F A+ A+ C A+ C+ D A+ F F 40% 30% 30% B+ F A C+ A- C B+ A+ A
1.22 61% 56% 41% +9 0 1.20 13% 1.3 .17 10% .52 73% .38 1.09 65% 27% 60% +11 -1 1.22 24% 1.1 .28 18% .28 56% .16
Feb
20		 Bowling Green A- C+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 13% 54% C A+ D A+ B- B+ A+ F+ A- C B A+ F+ C 43% 14% 43% C C B C+ B- C A- C A-
1.23 59% 57% 43% +10 +1 1.23 24% 1.4 .32 15% .43 67% .29 1.04 52% 25% 40% -1 +1 1.03 24% 0.8 .19 16% .24 73% .18
Feb
24		 Eastern Michigan C- B- A- F D- 29% 27% 44% F+ F+ D A+ B- A+ D+ D- D A C+ A+ C- A 26% 37% 37% A+ A B- C B- D F A F+
1.04 61% 47% 19% -7 -2 0.85 25% 1.4 .34 6% .28 68% .19 0.90 57% 15% 35% -8 -3 0.80 24% 1.0 .24 15% .38 65% .25
Feb
27		 Western Michigan F+ A+ F F C- 49% 20% 31% C C- F D- F C A+ F B B+ D A+ A B- 46% 32% 22% C+ B- C C+ C C- F+ C- F+
1.01 75% 20% 27% +1 +1 1.06 12% 1.0 .12 13% .42 60% .25 0.98 61% 25% 27% -5 -1 0.90 29% 1.0 .29 16% .35 75% .26
Mar
3		 Toledo D+ D A+ A- A+ 25% 17% 58% D- A F F F F+ C+ F D+ B- B- F A+ A- 47% 25% 28% D+ B+ C F D C- A+ F A+
1.08 54% 89% 40% +13 -1 1.27 19% 0.3 .06 22% .26 57% .15 1.05 54% 53% 24% -3 0 0.97 29% 1.2 .34 15% .03 100% .03



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 26.7 73.3 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 26.7 73.3 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 73.3    73.3
17-1 100.0% 26.7    0.3 26.4
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 73.6 26.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 73.3% 41.7% 32.0% 9.7% 11.3 0.1 0.9 20.4 9.1 0.1 42.7 14.2%
17-1 26.7% 32.9% 28.4% 4.5% 11.5 0.1 4.3 4.3 0.2 17.9 6.3%
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 39.3% 31.0% 8.3% 11.3 60.7 12.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 23.5% 100.0% 11.3 0.2 2.9 61.8 34.6 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 22.7% 14.2% 11.1 0.4 11.7 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 13.8% 14.6% 11.1 0.3 12.6 1.7
Lose Out 5.5% 4.4% 11.3 3.3 1.1