Akron
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.6 #64
Expected Predictive Rating +6.9 #82
Pace 76.4 #28
Improvement -2.6 #299

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #34 A A+ B D+ B
Defense #152 C D+ B- C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #146 1.31 #43 +3.6 #69
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #310 0.85 #63 -1.8 #269
Three Pointers 46% #75 1.14 #29 +5.6 #30
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #21 +7.4 #21
Freethrows 15.4 #303 76% #67 11.7 #254
Second Chance 34.3% #76 1.39 #2 0.48 #7
Turnovers 14.9% #82
Total Offense +8.1 #34

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #211 1.17 #190 +0.3 #163
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #272 0.81 #268 +0.6 #150
Three Pointers 45% #82 1.00 #165 -1.5 #248
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #195 -0.6 #195
Freethrows 17.3 #170 73% #226 12.7 #171
Second Chance 34.7% #320 1.03 #164 0.36 #268
Turnovers 18.2% #78
Total Defense +0.5 #152

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #68 0.6% #221
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.6% #24 0.6% #192
Possession Length 15.5 #37 17.7 #244
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #22 0.16 #160
Improvement -4.1 #351 +1.5 #94

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.6% 45.8% 40.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.7 11.6 12.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 50.2% 55.7% 31.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round44.5% 45.8% 40.3%
Second Round9.7% 10.3% 7.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 1.9% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Away) - 77.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 37 - 29 - 6
Quad 416 - 125 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 231 James Madison W 85 - 71 92% +0  1 - 0 +7 +4 F A+ B- +2 C B+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 214 Princeton W 104 - 69 91% +20  2 - 0 +29 +19 A+ A+ A+ +6 C A+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 5 @Purdue L 79 - 97 8% -12  2 - 1 +6 +13 C A+ A- -6 B- F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 227 Iona W 96 - 75 87% +18  3 - 1 +17 +14 A+ A+ C+ +1 B+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 271 Evansville W 97 - 59 91% +13  4 - 1 +32 +25 A+ A+ C +7 B F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 83 Yale L 94 - 97 56% -6  4 - 2 +4 +26 A+ A+ D -22 F C D+
 Sat, Nov 29 248 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 105 - 81 93% +13  5 - 2 +16 +16 A+ B- F -3 B+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 3 319 Bucknell W 97 - 77 97% +16  6 - 2 +7 +22 A A- A+ -14 F C+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 172 @Tulane W 88 - 71 74% +8  7 - 2 +19 +15 A+ A+ D- +4 A C F
 Sat, Dec 13 97 Murray St. L 100 - 115 63% -9  7 - 3 -10 +12 A+ D+ A+ -19 F F A+
 Fri, Dec 19 198 Eastern Michigan W 93 - 72 90% +15  8 - 3 1 - 0 +15 +18 A A+ A+ -2 A+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 89 @Miami (OH) L 73 - 76 47% +1  8 - 4 1 - 1 +6 +1 F A+ F +5 A+ F A+
 Tue, Jan 6 322 Central Michigan W 82 - 69 97% +10  9 - 4 2 - 1 +0 +1 A+ A+ F -2 D A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 9 129 @Bowling Green W 77 - 67 64% +11  10 - 4 3 - 1 +15 +5 C A+ C +10 B- A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 296 Ball St. W 87 - 77 95% +11  11 - 4 4 - 1 -1 +10 B- B A+ -11 F D- D+
 Sat, Jan 17 260 Western Michigan W 104 - 89 93% +2  12 - 4 5 - 1 +7 +28 A+ A+ B -22 F F C-
 Tue, Jan 20 201 @Buffalo W 82 - 63 78% +17  13 - 4 6 - 1 +19 +6 A- D+ D +13 A+ A- B
 Fri, Jan 23 196 @Ohio W 89 - 81 77%
 Tue, Jan 27 166 Toledo W 92 - 80 87%
 Fri, Jan 30 148 Kent St. W 95 - 84 85%
 Tue, Feb 3 198 @Eastern Michigan W 83 - 75 77%
 Sat, Feb 7 112 @Troy W 82 - 80 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 176 Massachusetts W 92 - 79 88%
 Tue, Feb 17 260 @Western Michigan W 89 - 78 85%
 Sat, Feb 21 296 @Ball St. W 84 - 71 89%
 Tue, Feb 24 201 Buffalo W 91 - 77 90%
 Sat, Feb 28 148 @Kent St. W 92 - 87 67%
 Tue, Mar 3 322 @Central Michigan W 89 - 73 93%
 Fri, Mar 6 318 Northern Illinois W 92 - 71 97%
Totals 23 - 6 15 - 3 +9 +8 A A+ B +0 C D+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.3 9.5 20.5 17.6 50.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.8 11.6 15.8 11.3 2.3 45.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.7 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 6.0 14.6 25.3 31.9 19.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 88.6% 17.6    12.7 4.9
16-2 64.4% 20.5    11.9 8.6
15-3 37.3% 9.5    4.0 5.2 0.3
14-4 15.7% 2.3    0.6 1.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 5.1% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 50.2% 50.2 29.3 20.1 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 19.9% 53.9% 53.8% 0.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 7.1 2.7 0.1 0.0 9.2 0.4%
16-2 31.9% 48.4% 48.4% 0.0% 11.7 0.0 5.7 9.0 0.7 0.0 16.4 0.1%
15-3 25.3% 41.8% 41.8% 12.0 1.8 7.5 1.3 0.0 14.7
14-4 14.6% 36.6% 36.6% 12.1 0.5 3.8 1.0 0.1 9.2
13-5 6.0% 31.7% 31.7% 12.4 0.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 4.1
12-6 1.9% 26.3% 26.3% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.4
11-7 0.4% 23.8% 23.8% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
10-8 0.1% 0.0 0.1
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 44.6% 44.5% 0.0% 11.7 55.4 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.1% 100.0% 11.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 3.2 8.5 74.5 13.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.7% 0.6% 11.0 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.9% 0.8% 11.3 0.5 0.3