Akron
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.2#54
Expected Predictive Rating+8.4#75
Pace76.4#38
Improvement-0.3#209

Offense
Total Offense+9.4#17
First Shot+5.4#44
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#18
Layup/Dunks+2.9#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#197
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#59
Freethrows-1.4#262
Improvement+0.6#125

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#146
First Shot+1.1#132
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#215
Layups/Dunks-0.5#192
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#144
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#240
Freethrows+2.5#55
Improvement-0.9#271
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.1% 2.9% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.6% 54.7% 47.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.6% 2.2% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.2 11.0 11.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 99.9% 99.8%
Conference Champion 78.6% 80.4% 73.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
First Round52.4% 54.4% 47.1%
Second Round17.0% 18.5% 13.2%
Sweet Sixteen5.0% 5.5% 3.7%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.2% 0.8%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Neutral) - 72.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 22 - 3
Quad 39 - 211 - 5
Quad 415 - 025 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 177 James Madison W 85-71 91%     1 - 0 +9.6 +4.9 +4.4
  Sat, Nov 8 250 Princeton W 104-69 94%     2 - 0 +27.1 +19.3 +4.6
  Sun, Nov 16 7 @Purdue L 79-97 11%     2 - 1 +5.3 +11.9 -6.0
  Fri, Nov 21 176 Iona W 96-75 86%     3 - 1 +19.6 +13.0 +4.7
  Sun, Nov 23 265 Evansville W 97-59 92%     4 - 1 +32.4 +23.5 +9.0
  Mon, Nov 24 73 Yale L 94-97 60%     4 - 2 +4.7 +25.7 -21.2
  Sat, Nov 29 219 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 105-81 93%     5 - 2 +17.3 +17.5 -2.6
  Wed, Dec 3 316 Bucknell W 97-77 97%     6 - 2 +8.4 +20.6 -11.8
  Sat, Dec 6 187 @Tulane W 88-71 80%     7 - 2 +18.3 +12.1 +6.0
  Sat, Dec 13 111 Murray St. W 91-85 73%    
  Fri, Dec 19 205 Eastern Michigan W 87-71 93%    
  Sat, Jan 3 112 @Miami (OH) W 87-84 63%    
  Tue, Jan 6 309 Central Michigan W 91-70 98%    
  Sat, Jan 10 129 @Bowling Green W 84-79 68%    
  Tue, Jan 13 310 Ball St. W 88-67 98%    
  Sat, Jan 17 245 Western Michigan W 92-74 95%    
  Tue, Jan 20 223 @Buffalo W 88-77 84%    
  Sat, Jan 24 190 @Ohio W 90-81 80%    
  Tue, Jan 27 163 Toledo W 93-79 89%    
  Fri, Jan 30 121 Kent St. W 95-85 83%    
  Tue, Feb 3 205 @Eastern Michigan W 84-74 81%    
  Sat, Feb 14 167 Massachusetts W 91-77 89%    
  Tue, Feb 17 245 @Western Michigan W 89-77 85%    
  Sat, Feb 21 310 @Ball St. W 85-70 92%    
  Tue, Feb 24 223 Buffalo W 91-74 93%    
  Sat, Feb 28 121 @Kent St. W 92-88 65%    
  Tue, Mar 3 309 @Central Michigan W 88-73 91%    
  Fri, Mar 6 333 Northern Illinois W 95-72 98%    
Projected Record 23 - 5 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.7 6.9 16.6 23.0 20.5 9.9 78.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.6 5.3 3.2 0.7 0.0 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.7 0.7 0.1 4.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.4 7.2 12.9 19.8 23.7 20.5 9.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 9.9    9.9
17-1 99.9% 20.5    20.1 0.4
16-2 97.2% 23.0    20.6 2.3 0.0
15-3 83.6% 16.6    11.9 4.4 0.3 0.0
14-4 53.7% 6.9    3.3 2.9 0.7 0.0 0.0
13-5 23.3% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 78.6% 78.6 66.1 10.7 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 9.9% 74.2% 68.9% 5.3% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 2.5 17.2%
17-1 20.5% 63.0% 62.0% 1.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 7.9 3.5 0.1 7.6 2.7%
16-2 23.7% 55.8% 55.6% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.1 5.1 7.5 0.5 0.0 10.5 0.3%
15-3 19.8% 48.7% 48.7% 11.9 0.0 1.8 6.7 1.1 0.0 10.2
14-4 12.9% 41.9% 41.9% 0.0% 12.2 0.4 3.7 1.2 0.1 7.5 0.0%
13-5 7.2% 35.2% 35.2% 12.4 0.1 1.5 0.9 0.1 4.7
12-6 3.4% 28.0% 28.0% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.5
11-7 1.6% 28.7% 28.7% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2
10-8 0.6% 19.3% 19.3% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
9-9 0.3% 18.4% 18.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 52.6% 51.8% 0.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.1 2.0 17.2 23.7 4.5 0.4 0.0 47.4 1.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.4% 100.0% 7.5 0.2 0.2 1.3 6.5 12.8 17.1 14.6 10.8 12.7 10.4 12.7 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 24.2% 10.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 2.5 3.5 16.2 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 22.6% 10.6 0.4 0.4 0.8 4.1 16.9