Akron
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#124
Expected Predictive Rating+2.6#123
Pace76.0#27
Improvement+1.8#101

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#131
First Shot+1.5#129
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#162
Layup/Dunks+0.0#188
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#41
Freethrows-2.7#322
Improvement+0.4#158

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#141
First Shot+1.4#130
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#238
Layups/Dunks-1.6#240
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#236
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#68
Freethrows+0.6#134
Improvement+1.5#105
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.6% 28.8% 22.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 14.0
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.5%
Conference Champion 54.6% 59.2% 32.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round27.6% 28.8% 22.2%
Second Round2.1% 2.2% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Away) - 82.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 417 - 122 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 100   @ Arkansas St. L 75-80 OT 31%     0 - 1 +2.5 -6.2 +9.5
  Nov 12, 2024 35   @ St. Mary's L 68-87 12%     0 - 2 -3.6 +2.5 -6.0
  Nov 22, 2024 231   Lamar W 79-72 81%     1 - 2 +0.3 -0.7 +0.6
  Nov 23, 2024 222   Nebraska Omaha W 92-84 79%     2 - 2 +1.9 +20.2 -17.9
  Nov 24, 2024 299   Alabama St. W 97-78 88%     3 - 2 +8.5 +13.0 -5.4
  Dec 03, 2024 235   Northern Kentucky W 86-73 81%     4 - 2 +6.1 +15.8 -9.2
  Dec 15, 2024 161   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 81-100 59%     4 - 3 -18.7 -5.8 -9.6
  Dec 20, 2024 88   Yale L 58-74 35%     4 - 4 -9.6 -14.2 +5.0
  Dec 21, 2024 278   Jackson St. W 68-50 80%     5 - 4 +11.5 -6.3 +17.4
  Dec 30, 2024 122   @ Princeton L 75-76 39%     5 - 5 +4.4 -0.8 +5.2
  Jan 03, 2025 285   @ Bowling Green W 71-68 75%     6 - 5 1 - 0 -1.4 -7.1 +5.6
  Jan 07, 2025 225   Central Michigan W 87-71 80%     7 - 5 2 - 0 +9.6 +17.5 -7.1
  Jan 11, 2025 313   @ Eastern Michigan W 105-81 79%     8 - 5 3 - 0 +18.1 +19.7 -3.6
  Jan 14, 2025 194   Toledo W 85-78 74%     9 - 5 4 - 0 +2.7 +3.9 -1.4
  Jan 17, 2025 147   Ohio W 92-80 65%     10 - 5 5 - 0 +10.4 +10.7 -1.2
  Jan 21, 2025 329   @ Buffalo W 84-74 83%    
  Jan 25, 2025 153   Miami (OH) W 80-76 67%    
  Jan 28, 2025 356   @ Northern Illinois W 84-70 89%    
  Jan 31, 2025 159   @ Kent St. L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 04, 2025 250   Ball St. W 82-72 84%    
  Feb 08, 2025 126   South Alabama W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 11, 2025 304   Western Michigan W 85-72 90%    
  Feb 15, 2025 225   @ Central Michigan W 74-71 62%    
  Feb 18, 2025 356   Northern Illinois W 87-68 96%    
  Feb 22, 2025 147   @ Ohio L 80-81 44%    
  Feb 25, 2025 250   @ Ball St. W 79-74 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 159   Kent St. W 73-68 68%    
  Mar 04, 2025 194   @ Toledo W 84-83 53%    
  Mar 07, 2025 329   Buffalo W 87-71 93%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.9 8.7 16.7 16.1 8.6 2.4 54.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.7 7.8 11.0 5.4 1.0 0.1 27.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.2 4.5 1.5 0.1 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 1.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 4.0 8.1 14.5 21.2 22.3 17.1 8.7 2.4 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.4    2.4
17-1 99.3% 8.6    8.2 0.4
16-2 94.3% 16.1    13.4 2.7 0.0
15-3 75.2% 16.7    10.4 5.8 0.5
14-4 41.1% 8.7    3.1 4.1 1.4 0.1
13-5 12.8% 1.9    0.2 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 54.6% 54.6 37.7 13.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.4% 49.2% 48.7% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 0.8%
17-1 8.7% 41.0% 41.0% 12.8 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.6 5.1
16-2 17.1% 36.5% 36.5% 13.3 0.7 3.2 2.1 0.2 10.8
15-3 22.3% 28.8% 28.8% 13.7 0.2 2.3 3.4 0.5 15.9
14-4 21.2% 25.2% 25.2% 14.0 0.1 1.2 3.1 1.0 0.0 15.9
13-5 14.5% 20.8% 20.8% 14.3 0.2 1.7 1.0 0.1 11.5
12-6 8.1% 15.0% 15.0% 14.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 6.9
11-7 4.0% 12.5% 12.5% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 3.5
10-8 1.4% 9.6% 9.6% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
9-9 0.3% 5.9% 5.9% 15.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 27.6% 27.6% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.4 2.7 9.0 11.5 3.7 0.3 72.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 11.8 1.1 29.5 60.2 9.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 3.6% 12.0 3.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%