Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#275
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#212
Pace71.3#110
Improvement-1.7#286

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#225
First Shot+2.9#98
After Offensive Rebound-4.7#361
Layup/Dunks-6.2#349
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#96
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#21
Freethrows+0.9#124
Improvement-0.3#207

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#302
First Shot-0.9#196
After Offensive Rebounds-3.2#347
Layups/Dunks+3.0#78
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#187
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#237
Freethrows-2.8#336
Improvement-1.4#295
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.8% 18.8% 14.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 66.1% 79.8% 58.8%
.500 or above in Conference 90.8% 93.6% 89.4%
Conference Champion 22.4% 27.0% 19.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four9.6% 9.2% 9.7%
First Round10.9% 14.3% 9.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Norfolk St. (Neutral) - 34.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 416 - 717 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 113   @ UNLV L 79-93 12%     0 - 1 -7.5 +8.8 -16.3
  Nov 10, 2024 60   @ LSU L 61-74 6%     0 - 2 -0.9 -7.3 +6.8
  Nov 22, 2024 294   Nebraska Omaha W 85-67 54%     1 - 2 +11.0 +6.0 +4.5
  Nov 23, 2024 179   Lamar W 77-75 31%     2 - 2 +1.0 +7.6 -6.5
  Nov 24, 2024 146   @ Akron L 78-97 18%     2 - 3 -15.4 +1.4 -15.9
  Nov 27, 2024 27   @ Cincinnati L 59-77 3%     2 - 4 -1.7 -4.7 +3.1
  Dec 03, 2024 49   @ SMU L 72-101 5%     2 - 5 -15.7 +1.7 -16.3
  Dec 05, 2024 282   @ Southern Miss L 64-81 40%     2 - 6 -20.4 -12.2 -7.3
  Dec 11, 2024 327   Tennessee Martin W 103-93 OT 74%     3 - 6 -2.8 +12.2 -16.1
  Dec 19, 2024 196   Norfolk St. L 72-76 35%    
  Dec 20, 2024 341   Delaware St. W 78-73 69%    
  Dec 30, 2024 51   @ Missouri L 68-87 4%    
  Jan 04, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 78-60 95%    
  Jan 06, 2025 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 90-76 91%    
  Jan 11, 2025 311   @ Jackson St. L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 13, 2025 343   @ Alcorn St. W 75-73 59%    
  Jan 18, 2025 361   @ Alabama A&M W 80-74 70%    
  Jan 25, 2025 340   Prairie View W 87-79 77%    
  Jan 27, 2025 300   Texas Southern W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 01, 2025 289   @ Bethune-Cookman L 72-74 42%    
  Feb 03, 2025 355   @ Florida A&M W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 287   Grambling St. W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 10, 2025 223   Southern W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 362   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 87-79 77%    
  Feb 17, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 75-63 86%    
  Feb 22, 2025 355   Florida A&M W 77-67 81%    
  Feb 24, 2025 289   Bethune-Cookman W 75-71 63%    
  Mar 01, 2025 361   Alabama A&M W 83-71 85%    
  Mar 06, 2025 223   @ Southern L 69-75 30%    
  Mar 08, 2025 287   @ Grambling St. L 71-73 42%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.7 6.0 6.7 4.4 1.7 0.4 22.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.2 7.5 5.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.6 7.3 4.1 0.8 0.0 16.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 6.3 3.4 0.5 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.9 3.1 0.4 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.3 2.9 0.4 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.8 7.7 11.2 14.0 15.8 14.9 12.2 8.4 4.6 1.7 0.4 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.9% 1.7    1.6 0.0
16-2 95.6% 4.4    3.9 0.5 0.0
15-3 79.5% 6.7    4.7 1.9 0.2
14-4 49.0% 6.0    2.6 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 18.2% 2.7    0.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.4% 22.4 13.8 6.3 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 53.1% 53.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.7% 40.8% 40.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.0
16-2 4.6% 32.4% 32.4% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 3.1
15-3 8.4% 28.8% 28.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 6.0
14-4 12.2% 23.7% 23.7% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.6 9.3
13-5 14.9% 18.1% 18.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.6 12.2
12-6 15.8% 14.1% 14.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2 13.6
11-7 14.0% 11.0% 11.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5 12.5
10-8 11.2% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0 10.2
9-9 7.7% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.5 7.2
8-10 4.8% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.2 4.6
7-11 2.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.4
6-12 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 12.9 84.2 0.0%