Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -9.5 316
Expected Predictive Rating -11.5 335
Pace 71.8 93
Improvement -4.6 339

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #327 D D D+ D+ D+
Defense D+ #279 D D- B- D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 211 52% 313 -2.8 281
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 90 33% 315 +0.5 140
Three Pointers 38% 252 33% 216 -2.1 259
1st FG Attempt 0.93 315 -4.4 313
Second Chance 30.5% 181 0.83 356 0.25 304
Turnovers 18.6% 287
Freethrows 0.28 255 69% 286 0.20 273
Total Offense -6.3 327

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 165 62% 288 -2.0 254
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 335 37% 140 +2.3 27
Three Pointers 46% 53 37% 299 -4.2 338
1st FG Attempt 1.10 302 -3.9 303
Second Chance 34.6% 321 1.13 314 0.39 337
Turnovers 18.4% 96
Freethrows 0.35 314 76% 347 0.27 329
Total Defense -3.2 279

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.6 273 +0.8 304
Shot Type Accuracy -3.8 308 +3.1 297
Possession Length 17.0 140 16.7 77
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 87 0.25 354
Improvement -7.0 #362 +2.4 #59

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 16% 25% 4%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 3% 1%
First Round1% 2% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 59.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 30 - 21 - 9
Quad 49 - 1210 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 93 @Florida St. L 64 - 101 6% -20  0% 0 - 1 F -29 F -14 F C+ D+ F+ -11 C F A
 Tue, Nov 11 118 @UAB W 77 - 74 8% +4  75% 1 - 1 B +9 C +0 C D B A- +8 B+ C+ A-
 Mon, Nov 17 77 @Colorado L 66 - 94 4% -19  0% 1 - 2 F -18 D- -7 F+ D C+ F+ -10 D- D- B-
 Wed, Nov 19 349 @Air Force L 64 - 66 50% +2  71% 1 - 3 D- -12 F -10 F F D+ C -1 D- F A-
 Fri, Nov 21 332 IU Indianapolis W 101 - 80 56% +9  86% 2 - 3 B +10 B +6 A- F+ C+ C+ +2 F A- A+
 Sun, Nov 23 245 SIU Edwardsville L 68 - 83 32% -2  48% 2 - 4 F -20 C- -2 F+ C- B F -18 F F F
 Wed, Nov 26 49 @New Mexico L 87 - 93 2% +6  82% 2 - 5 B +8 A+ +15 A+ A+ F+ D -7 F C+ C
 Sun, Dec 7 219 @Tennessee Martin L 64 - 74 18% +0  60% 2 - 6 D -10 D+ -4 A- F D+ D -7 C+ F D+
 Thu, Dec 11 48 @Missouri L 77 - 85 2% -11  0% 2 - 7 B- +6 A+ +16 A- A+ A+ F -11 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 45 @Cincinnati L 51 - 88 2% -21  0% 2 - 8 F -22 F -12 F+ F A- F+ -11 D- C+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 86 @Memphis L 67 - 88 5% -13  0% 2 - 9 D- -12 D+ -3 D- B+ C- D- -8 F C A
 Mon, Dec 29 79 @Mississippi St. L 56 - 94 4% -18  0% 2 - 10 F -28 F -13 F F D- F -16 F+ F C
 Sat, Jan 3 365 @Mississippi Valley W 89 - 69 86% +9  98% 3 - 10 1 - 0 C -1 C+ +2 C+ F F D+ -4 F+ C B+
 Mon, Jan 5 313 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 79 - 90 37% -6  10% 3 - 11 1 - 1 F+ -17 D -5 D F C+ F -11 F D B+
 Sat, Jan 10 343 Jackson St. L 64 - 75 70% -7  8% 3 - 12 1 - 2 F -26 F -25 F C F C -1 B- C- C+
 Mon, Jan 12 351 Alcorn St. W 81 - 66 74% +6  92% 4 - 12 2 - 2 C -1 D -5 C- D F B- +3 A+ F C
 Mon, Jan 19 305 Alabama A&M L 69 - 73 46% -0  39% 4 - 13 2 - 3 D- -12 F -11 D+ A F C -1 C D C
 Sat, Jan 24 336 @Prairie View W 95 - 80 46% +12  98% 5 - 13 3 - 3 B- +7 C +0 A- F+ B B- +4 B- F A+
 Tue, Jan 27 309 @Texas Southern L 64 - 96 36% -16  0% 5 - 14 3 - 4 F -38 F -17 F D B F -20 F F+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 227 Bethune-Cookman L 54 - 69 39% -1  50% 5 - 15 3 - 5 F -22 F -22 F+ F F C +0 D- F A+
 Mon, Feb 2 328 Florida A&M W 79 - 66 66% +3  59% 6 - 15 4 - 5 C -1 D+ -4 B+ F F B- +3 C C+ B-
 Sat, Feb 7 285 @Grambling St. L 47 - 57 30% -3  35% 6 - 16 4 - 6 D- -14 F -21 F F B B+ +6 C B+ D+
 Mon, Feb 9 264 @Southern L 68 - 69 26% -0  42% 6 - 17 4 - 7 C- -4 D+ -4 F+ A F C +0 B- C D-
 Sat, Feb 14 313 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 79 - 76 60%
 Mon, Feb 16 365 Mississippi Valley W 80 - 63 95%
 Thu, Feb 19 328 @Florida A&M L 71 - 73 43%
 Thu, Feb 19 227 @Bethune-Cookman L 69 - 78 20%
 Sat, Feb 28 305 @Alabama A&M L 69 - 73 36%
 Tue, Mar 3 264 Southern L 75 - 76 47%
 Thu, Mar 5 285 Grambling St. W 70 - 69 51%
Totals 10 - 20 7 - 10 -10 D -6 D D D+ D+ -3 D D- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D D C- D 37% 25% 38% D+ D C F D D+ D+ D+ D+ D+ D+ C+ D D 39% 15% 46% D D D D D- B- D D- D-
1.00 52% 33% 33% -4 -1 0.93 30% 0.8 .25 19% .28 69% .20 1.13 62% 37% 37% +3 +1 1.10 35% 1.1 .39 18% .35 76% .22
Nov
7		 Florida St. F F F D+ F 33% 27% 40% D+ F C- B C+ D+ B- F D+ F+ F D+ B C- 27% 8% 65% C+ C F F F A A- F C+
0.82 44% 13% 32% -12 -1 0.75 29% 1.1 .31 22% .31 58% .18 1.29 71% 40% 30% 0 +1 1.03 44% 1.9 .82 19% .22 93% .21
Nov
11		 UAB C B- F C C 45% 18% 38% B C B- F D B B+ F C+ A- C+ D A+ A- 51% 20% 29% D- B+ D+ B+ C+ A- B- F C
1.03 64% 20% 33% -1 +1 1.02 30% 0.6 .18 15% .31 65% .20 0.99 57% 42% 12% -10 +1 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 16% .29 78% .22
Nov
17		 Colorado D- F F+ A+ F+ 32% 28% 40% D+ F+ C+ F D C+ F F F F+ F D D F+ 44% 20% 36% C- D- F+ C- D- B- F D+ F
0.93 22% 31% 43% -7 -1 0.84 28% 0.8 .24 16% .20 58% .12 1.33 75% 44% 38% +11 +1 1.24 39% 1.0 .39 16% .60 78% .47
Nov
19		 Air Force F D D+ F F 40% 22% 38% C F F F F D+ B- A B+ C C A+ F D- 38% 8% 54% D D- D+ F F A- F C- F
0.96 55% 36% 26% -6 0 0.90 18% 0.8 .15 17% .34 79% .27 0.99 57% 0% 40% +2 +2 1.08 25% 2.2 .54 26% .46 65% .30
Nov
21		 IU Indianapolis B B- A+ A+ A 50% 13% 38% C+ A- F C F+ C+ C- A C+ C+ B- A F F 19% 12% 69% C- F B+ A A- A+ B A+ A-
1.26 64% 71% 43% +12 +2 1.30 28% 1.3 .34 19% .37 83% .31 1.00 55% 29% 44% +9 0 1.19 23% 0.9 .20 22% .13 50% .06
Nov
23		 SIU Edwardsville C- F A+ F F 35% 22% 43% C F+ B F C- B A+ A- A+ F F A F+ F 33% 31% 37% C F F C+ F F F B- F
1.02 44% 50% 20% -11 0 0.78 39% 0.8 .29 14% .54 81% .43 1.25 75% 27% 39% +5 -2 1.08 41% 0.9 .38 12% .51 67% .34
Nov
26		 New Mexico A+ C+ D+ A+ A+ 24% 27% 49% D A+ A A+ A+ F+ A A- A D D+ F F F 41% 7% 52% D F D+ B+ C+ C F B F
1.20 58% 36% 48% +10 -2 1.18 37% 1.6 .59 23% .36 80% .29 1.28 63% 67% 46% +13 +2 1.33 33% 0.9 .30 15% .62 71% .44
Dec
7		 Tennessee Martin D+ A- D- A+ A 36% 28% 36% C- A- F+ F F D+ B- F C- D B- F B+ C+ 28% 17% 54% C+ C+ F D F D+ F A+ C
0.97 71% 31% 41% +7 -1 1.13 25% 0.4 .09 20% .36 58% .21 1.12 54% 50% 28% -4 0 0.93 45% 1.0 .45 20% .43 48% .21
Dec
11		 Missouri A+ C C- A+ A 25% 27% 47% D+ A- B A+ A+ A+ F+ F F F F F F F 44% 23% 33% B F B F F C B+ C- B
1.24 54% 36% 46% +7 -2 1.12 32% 1.3 .42 11% .22 67% .15 1.37 79% 50% 50% +20 0 1.42 33% 1.9 .62 18% .31 69% .22
Dec
17		 Cincinnati F F C F F+ 33% 33% 33% D- F+ A+ F F A- D- F F+ F+ F C- A+ D- 39% 9% 52% F D- D A- C+ F D D+ D
0.73 39% 39% 22% -12 -2 0.74 35% 0.3 .10 16% .20 58% .12 1.26 90% 40% 25% +6 +1 1.17 36% 0.8 .31 10% .32 70% .22
Dec
22		 Memphis D+ C+ B- F D+ 20% 35% 45% F D- A+ D+ B+ C- A- F C D- F C F F 30% 15% 56% C- F F A C A D+ A+ C+
0.92 60% 39% 22% -8 -3 0.80 43% 0.8 .36 22% .39 59% .23 1.21 75% 38% 43% +13 0 1.28 45% 0.9 .42 25% .33 61% .20
Dec
29		 Mississippi St. F F F F F 27% 36% 36% D F D+ F F D- A+ F+ A+ F C- F F+ F+ 41% 20% 39% D F+ F F+ F C B D+ B-
0.81 42% 25% 25% -14 -3 0.68 22% 0.3 .07 17% .59 68% .40 1.35 64% 55% 38% +8 0 1.19 49% 1.2 .57 16% .24 71% .17
Jan
3		 Mississippi Valley C+ B- A B C+ 39% 22% 39% C- C+ C+ F F F A+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ F F+ 37% 33% 30% F F+ B- D- C B+ F F F
1.22 67% 50% 39% +9 0 1.20 39% 0.8 .30 22% .53 93% .49 0.94 69% 21% 38% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 25% .45 80% .36
Jan
5		 Arkansas Pine Bluff D C- D+ C D+ 41% 27% 32% D- D F C- F C+ B- C- B- F A+ F F F 48% 16% 36% F F F A- D B+ F F F
1.05 57% 33% 33% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 15% .41 73% .30 1.20 33% 71% 56% +6 +1 1.16 38% 0.8 .31 21% .70 83% .58
Jan
10		 Jackson St. F F F F F 60% 11% 29% A F A+ F C F B D- C+ C C- A+ A A- 53% 16% 31% F B- F A- C- C+ F F F
0.85 39% 17% 13% -23 +3 0.62 48% 0.8 .37 25% .37 67% .25 0.99 56% 0% 25% -11 +2 0.82 33% 0.8 .28 20% .53 88% .46
Jan
12		 Alcorn St. D B+ F B C- 43% 11% 46% C+ C- D- C+ D F A+ A A+ B- A A+ A- A+ 35% 19% 46% D+ A+ C- F F C D F+ D-
1.13 70% 0% 38% +4 +2 1.13 31% 1.3 .38 22% .47 81% .38 0.92 44% 10% 29% -13 0 0.75 26% 1.6 .42 20% .28 75% .21
Jan
19		 Alabama A&M F A+ C+ F C- 26% 28% 47% F D+ B A+ A F C- F+ D C F A+ A+ C 33% 27% 40% C+ C B+ F D C F F F
0.97 83% 38% 27% +2 -2 1.02 37% 1.3 .47 28% .33 65% .21 1.02 80% 17% 22% -5 -1 0.89 20% 1.5 .30 17% .49 83% .40
Jan
24		 Prairie View C C C A+ A- 44% 17% 39% C+ A- F B- F+ B D- F F B- D- A+ A+ B- 40% 33% 27% C- B- F+ F F A+ F F F
1.13 58% 40% 52% +11 +1 1.25 25% 1.1 .28 17% .33 65% .21 0.95 63% 25% 23% -7 -2 0.85 29% 1.6 .46 27% .56 88% .49
Jan
27		 Texas Southern F F A F F 43% 4% 53% B+ F C- D- D B A F C F C- F F F 37% 16% 47% F+ F F B+ F+ D F F F
0.88 45% 50% 19% -17 +2 0.73 33% 1.0 .33 14% .46 59% .27 1.31 58% 75% 46% +14 +1 1.31 41% 0.9 .37 15% .42 85% .35
Jan
31		 Bethune-Cookman F B F F D 33% 35% 31% F F+ F+ F F F F C F C C C+ D D+ 60% 14% 26% F D- F C F A+ F B+ F
0.78 63% 24% 27% -7 -2 0.83 24% 0.7 .16 23% .21 73% .15 1.00 58% 33% 36% 0 +2 1.07 40% 1.0 .40 29% .49 63% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Florida A&M D+ F+ A+ A+ A- 35% 25% 39% D- B+ C- F F F D- D+ D- B- A+ F C+ B- 47% 14% 39% F C B D+ C+ B- D+ F F+
1.09 50% 54% 50% +11 -1 1.22 31% 0.5 .14 23% .29 75% .22 0.91 43% 57% 32% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.9 .21 23% .32 78% .25
Feb
7		 Grambling St. F F F F F 44% 15% 41% C+ F C F F B F F F B+ A C+ C C+ 32% 7% 61% F+ C A+ D+ B+ D+ C- C+ C
0.74 29% 13% 27% -21 +1 0.63 35% 0.6 .19 17% .19 50% .10 0.90 43% 33% 33% -6 +1 0.93 18% 1.0 .18 19% .35 72% .25
Feb
9		 Southern D+ C F A D 24% 43% 33% F F+ A- B- A F A+ F B- C F A+ C+ B- 27% 35% 39% A- B- C C C D- F F F
1.03 60% 28% 43% +1 -4 0.95 41% 1.2 .49 26% .47 65% .31 1.05 69% 18% 32% -5 -3 0.86 30% 1.0 .30 14% .44 76% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 0.9 3rd
4th 1.2 1.4 2.6 4th
5th 0.2 4.6 0.5 5.3 5th
6th 2.0 5.3 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.3 8.6 2.1 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 3.4 11.1 0.2 14.7 8th
9th 1.2 13.3 4.8 0.0 19.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 9.1 12.0 0.6 22.5 10th
11th 0.2 4.6 9.4 2.0 16.2 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.3 5.4 19.7 30.9 27.4 13.4 2.9 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 2.9% 18.3% 18.3% 16.0 0.5 2.4
9-9 13.4% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 1.3 12.2
8-10 27.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.3 27.1
7-11 30.9% 30.9
6-12 19.7% 19.7
5-13 5.4% 5.4
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 16.0 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%