Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#276
Expected Predictive Rating-6.0#265
Pace69.7#176
Improvement+0.8#132

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#230
First Shot+0.2#169
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#317
Layup/Dunks-0.6#203
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#159
Freethrows-0.3#197
Improvement+1.6#64

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#304
First Shot-1.7#231
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#306
Layups/Dunks+2.6#86
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#136
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#338
Freethrows+0.1#171
Improvement-0.8#251
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 13.6% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 30.4% 45.2% 23.0%
.500 or above in Conference 76.4% 82.7% 73.2%
Conference Champion 11.7% 15.0% 10.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four5.9% 6.2% 5.7%
First Round7.9% 10.7% 6.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Away) - 33.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 31 - 32 - 10
Quad 412 - 814 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 101 @Florida St. L 64-101 10%     0 - 1 -29.1 -10.8 -14.3
  Tue, Nov 11 110 @UAB W 77-74 12%     1 - 1 +9.7 +2.9 +6.6
  Mon, Nov 17 63 @Colorado L 66-94 6%     1 - 2 -16.3 -5.1 -10.9
  Wed, Nov 19 331 @Air Force L 64-66 54%     1 - 3 -9.2 -7.5 -1.7
  Fri, Nov 21 356 IU Indianapolis W 101-80 77%     2 - 3 +7.2 +7.1 -2.5
  Sun, Nov 23 230 SIU Edwardsville L 68-83 42%     2 - 4 -19.0 -1.0 -18.7
  Wed, Nov 26 84 @New Mexico L 87-93 8%     2 - 5 +3.5 +16.2 -12.4
  Sun, Dec 7 240 @Tennessee Martin L 69-74 33%    
  Thu, Dec 11 37 @Missouri L 67-89 2%    
  Wed, Dec 17 68 @Cincinnati L 65-82 5%    
  Mon, Dec 22 69 @Memphis L 67-84 6%    
  Mon, Dec 29 78 @Mississippi St. L 68-84 7%    
  Sat, Jan 3 365 @Mississippi Valley W 79-66 88%    
  Mon, Jan 5 353 @Arkansas Pine Bluff W 79-75 64%    
  Sat, Jan 10 312 Jackson St. W 75-70 69%    
  Mon, Jan 12 334 Alcorn St. W 79-72 75%    
  Sat, Jan 17 272 Alabama A&M W 73-70 60%    
  Sat, Jan 24 322 @Prairie View W 77-76 51%    
  Mon, Jan 26 305 @Texas Southern L 75-76 47%    
  Sat, Jan 31 220 Bethune-Cookman W 75-74 53%    
  Mon, Feb 2 343 Florida A&M W 79-71 77%    
  Sat, Feb 7 284 @Grambling St. L 70-72 41%    
  Mon, Feb 9 199 @Southern L 74-81 28%    
  Sat, Feb 14 353 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82-72 81%    
  Mon, Feb 16 365 Mississippi Valley W 82-63 95%    
  Thu, Feb 19 343 @Florida A&M W 76-74 58%    
  Thu, Feb 19 220 @Bethune-Cookman L 72-77 32%    
  Sat, Feb 28 272 @Alabama A&M L 70-73 39%    
  Tue, Mar 3 199 Southern L 77-78 48%    
  Thu, Mar 5 284 Grambling St. W 73-69 63%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 10 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.8 4.0 2.6 1.1 0.2 11.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 5.0 5.2 2.5 0.5 0.0 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 5.6 5.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.9 5.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.6 5.9 1.8 0.1 11.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 5.4 2.1 0.1 9.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.2 2.6 0.2 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.8 0.4 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.1 0.5 0.0 4.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.9 6.4 10.1 12.7 14.7 15.0 13.0 9.8 6.7 3.1 1.1 0.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 97.0% 1.1    1.0 0.1
15-3 84.0% 2.6    2.0 0.6 0.0
14-4 59.9% 4.0    2.2 1.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 28.8% 2.8    0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.5% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.7% 11.7 6.3 3.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.2% 46.3% 46.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 1.1% 38.2% 38.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7
15-3 3.1% 29.2% 29.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 2.2
14-4 6.7% 25.3% 25.3% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 5.0
13-5 9.8% 18.8% 18.8% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 8.0
12-6 13.0% 14.3% 14.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.6 11.2
11-7 15.0% 11.0% 11.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 13.3
10-8 14.7% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 1.1 13.5
9-9 12.7% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8 11.9
8-10 10.1% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.3 9.8
7-11 6.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.4
6-12 3.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.9
5-13 2.0% 2.0
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 8.4 89.2 0.0%