Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -3.8 231
Results Rating -2.2 197
Consistency 0.19 342
Pace 63.1 324
Improvement -2.6 275

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 332 D+ C F D+ C-
Defense B- 99 C+ C B C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 336 C- 56% 210 -4.7 334
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 240 C+ 39% 141 -0.7 219
Three Pointers 50% 21 D 30% 317 +2.1 107
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.2 217 D+ -3.1 286
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 282
Second Chance B 34.5% 65 D- 0.89 344 C 0.31 181
Opponents' Steals F 12.9% 362
Other Turnovers D 8.3% 311
Turnovers F 21.3% 359
Freethrows C 0.30 189 F+ 66% 347 D+ 0.20 254
Total Offense D -6.5 332

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 50% 152 C 11.0% 175
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 249 C+ 4.6% 159
Three Pointers B+ 92% 22 C 1.0% 222
Total B- 61% 75 B- 4.8% 86


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 335 D 63% 313 -2.6 92
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 116 B+ 33% 28 -0.4 154
Three Pointers 46% 37 B- 32% 80 +1.2 251
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.7 65 C+ -1.1 135
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 123
Second Chance D+ 32.7% 279 B 0.95 62 C 0.31 183
Turnovers from Steals B+ 12.1% 28
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 193
Turnovers B 19.3% 45
Freethrows D+ 0.33 264 B- 70% 74 C- 0.23 239
Total Defense B- +2.7 99

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F+ 60% 351 C 10.7% 185
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 195 A+ 12.2% 4
Three Pointers D 88% 308 B 1.7% 51
Total D- 64% 337 B- 6.9% 81

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 297 17.6 238
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 170 0.22 331
Consistency 0.16 359 0.12 166
Improvement -5.3 353 +2.7 58

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 244 230 211
Results Rating Rank 234 208 155
Conference Record 13 - 7 13 - 7 13 - 7
Conference Finish 4 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18% 24% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.2 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four1% 1% 0%
First Round18% 24% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 12 - 2
Quad 30 - 32 - 5
Quad 417 - 619 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 103 @UNLV W 86 - 81 15% -1  43% 1 - 0 B+ +12 C +1 C C+ C A +11 A- F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 110 @Bradley W 78 - 67 17% +2  64% 2 - 0 A- +17 C+ +2 A+ A F A+ +15 A+ D A
 Tue, Nov 18 75 @Florida St. L 73 - 87 9% -6  12% 2 - 1 C- -3 D+ -3 A- A+ F C+ +1 C- A- F
 Sat, Nov 22 323 Prairie View W 69 - 68 74% -2  38% 3 - 1 D -10 F -10 D F F C+ +1 B+ C C
 Sun, Nov 23 225 Southern Miss L 60 - 70 50% -14  0% 3 - 2 D- -14 C +0 B- D- B- F -17 F+ F F
 Tue, Dec 2 250 Charleston Southern W 73 - 56 66% +5  77% 4 - 2 B +9 C- -2 D D+ C A+ +12 A+ C B
 Sun, Dec 7 316 Alabama St. W 74 - 64 79% -0  34% 5 - 2 C- -2 C- -2 F B+ D C -0 F A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 10 121 @Southern Illinois L 54 - 83 18% -9  15% 5 - 3 F -23 F -13 F+ F F F -10 F F B
 Thu, Dec 18 199 @Tennessee St. L 71 - 78 32% +1  61% 5 - 4 0 - 1 D+ -6 D -5 F B- F+ C -1 D- B D
 Sat, Dec 20 312 @Tennessee Tech W 86 - 62 59% +7  85% 6 - 4 1 - 1 A- +18 A+ +17 A+ F+ B+ B +4 F A- A
 Thu, Jan 1 364 Western Illinois W 67 - 60 94% -2  27% 7 - 4 2 - 1 F+ -15 F -12 F F B+ C- -3 F+ A B+
 Sat, Jan 3 321 Eastern Illinois W 65 - 61 81% -0  41% 8 - 4 3 - 1 D -9 F -11 F A F C+ +2 B- A- C
 Thu, Jan 8 282 @Morehead St. W 76 - 68 49% -3  28% 9 - 4 4 - 1 C+ +4 B +6 B+ B- D+ C -1 C- D- B+
 Sat, Jan 10 336 @Southern Indiana W 73 - 56 70% +2  52% 10 - 4 5 - 1 B- +8 B- +4 C+ A+ F B+ +6 A- D- B
 Thu, Jan 15 256 SIU Edwardsville W 65 - 59 67% +3  71% 11 - 4 6 - 1 C- -2 D+ -4 D B+ D+ B- +2 A- C F
 Sat, Jan 17 269 Lindenwood W 69 - 55 69% +10  96% 12 - 4 7 - 1 B- +5 F+ -9 C- C- F A+ +14 A+ B- A
 Tue, Jan 20 224 @Southeast Missouri St. L 50 - 66 38% -18  0% 12 - 5 7 - 2 F+ -17 F -19 F C F C+ +0 C+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 29 321 @Eastern Illinois W 76 - 68 63% +7  94% 13 - 5 8 - 2 C +1 C+ +3 A+ C- F C- -2 C+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 364 @Western Illinois W 84 - 44 87% +21  98% 14 - 5 9 - 2 A+ +24 B+ +9 C A+ C A+ +18 A- A+ A
 Tue, Feb 3 301 Arkansas Little Rock W 55 - 52 77% +1  69% 15 - 5 10 - 2 D -8 F -19 D- D+ F A +11 B- C- A+
 Thu, Feb 5 336 Southern Indiana W 76 - 54 85% +13  91% 16 - 5 11 - 2 B- +7 C+ +2 C- A+ F B+ +6 A- B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 7 282 Morehead St. L 55 - 61 71% -0  37% 16 - 6 11 - 3 F+ -16 F -19 F D- C B- +2 B- C- A-
 Thu, Feb 12 269 @Lindenwood L 74 - 75 47% +0  47% 16 - 7 11 - 4 C- -4 C +1 A- C F D+ -5 F A A+
 Sat, Feb 14 256 @SIU Edwardsville W 81 - 76 44% +2  53% 17 - 7 12 - 4 C+ +3 A- +11 A+ C F F+ -9 F F A+
 Tue, Feb 17 224 Southeast Missouri St. L 53 - 56 OT 61% -5  2% 17 - 8 12 - 5 D -10 F -24 F F C- A+ +15 A+ C- A+
 Thu, Feb 19 301 @Arkansas Little Rock L 65 - 67 56% +2  67% 17 - 9 12 - 6 D+ -7 C- -2 F B- B D -6 D F B
 Thu, Feb 26 312 Tennessee Tech W 64 - 49 79% +6  92% 18 - 9 13 - 6 C+ +3 F -14 F D- C- A+ +17 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Feb 28 199 Tennessee St. L 42 - 67 55% -17  0% 18 - 10 13 - 7 F -30 F -34 F F F B- +2 C- C- A
 Thu, Mar 5 321 Eastern Illinois W 65 - 59 73%
Totals 19 - 10 13 - 7 -4 D -6 B+ D+ C- B- +3 D F+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C- C+ D D+ 31% 32% 50% C- D+ B D- C F C F+ D+ B- D B+ B- C+ 31% 22% 46% B C+ D+ B C B D+ B- C-
0.99 56% 39% 30% -3 0 0.95 35% 0.9 .31 21% .30 66% .20 1.05 63% 33% 32% -1 -1 0.99 33% 1.0 .31 19% .33 70% .21
Nov
4		 UNLV C F A+ C C 30% 12% 58% C+ C C- A- C+ C A+ F A+ A D B A A 33% 19% 49% B- A- C+ F F A+ F F+ F
1.07 47% 50% 34% -2 +1 1.00 28% 1.3 .35 17% .73 56% .41 1.01 64% 38% 29% -2 0 0.98 31% 1.5 .47 27% .64 76% .48
Nov
12		 Bradley C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 39% 9% 52% A+ A+ D+ A+ A F C+ F D+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 18% 40% D- A+ C+ F D A F F F
1.06 65% 50% 43% +11 +2 1.27 27% 1.6 .42 31% .34 65% .22 0.91 63% 13% 6% -19 +1 0.64 26% 1.3 .33 19% .62 81% .51
Nov
18		 Florida St. D+ D- A+ A- A- 31% 18% 51% C+ A- B+ A+ A+ F A+ B A+ C+ D+ A+ C- C- 45% 9% 46% D C- C A+ A- F D+ A+ B
0.97 50% 63% 39% +6 0 1.13 37% 1.2 .43 34% .42 76% .32 1.15 64% 20% 35% +1 +2 1.09 33% 0.9 .29 8% .33 57% .19
Nov
22		 Prairie View F B- A+ F D- 40% 18% 43% C D F+ F F F A+ D A+ C+ C C- A+ B- 23% 45% 32% A+ B+ D A- C C F C- F
0.99 63% 57% 24% -2 +1 1.00 28% 0.9 .25 23% .56 70% .39 0.98 55% 38% 20% -8 -4 0.79 27% 0.9 .24 16% .53 77% .41
Nov
23		 Southern Miss C D+ A+ C B- 38% 20% 43% C- B- C+ F D- B- A- F C- F F B- F+ F 31% 33% 36% B+ F+ F D- F F B A+ A+
1.08 53% 63% 35% +4 0 1.10 30% 0.7 .20 16% .43 55% .23 1.25 71% 33% 38% +4 -2 1.07 42% 1.2 .48 14% .31 53% .17
Dec
2		 Charleston Southern C- B F F+ D- 27% 15% 58% C+ D A F D+ C A+ A A+ A+ F+ D+ A+ A+ 19% 10% 71% A- A+ D+ B- C B B- A B
1.11 62% 14% 29% -7 0 0.88 40% 0.7 .27 12% .55 78% .43 0.85 67% 40% 24% -9 0 0.83 31% 0.8 .26 21% .23 58% .13
Dec
7		 Alabama St. C- D A+ F F+ 28% 17% 54% D F A+ D B+ D A- F F C F B F F 36% 28% 36% B- F B+ A+ A+ B- F A+ C-
1.12 54% 50% 28% -4 0 0.93 45% 1.0 .45 20% .43 48% .21 0.97 71% 31% 41% +6 -1 1.13 25% 0.4 .09 20% .36 58% .21
Dec
10		 Southern Illinois F F D F F 28% 12% 60% B- F+ C F F F D D D F F B F F 52% 22% 26% F F D+ F F B F B- D-
0.77 43% 33% 27% -11 0 0.80 29% 0.5 .16 27% .24 67% .16 1.19 73% 36% 38% +9 +1 1.22 32% 1.2 .39 19% .37 67% .25
Dec
18		 Tennessee St. D F A+ F F 43% 16% 41% C- F B+ D+ B- F+ A+ C- A+ C D D- C- F 41% 43% 17% A- D- A D B D C- D+ D+
1.00 47% 57% 22% -9 +1 0.86 37% 1.0 .37 23% .53 72% .38 1.10 64% 43% 33% +4 -3 1.06 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 78% .23
Dec
20		 Tennessee Tech A+ A A+ A+ A+ 27% 22% 51% D A+ C- F F+ B+ D- A D+ B F F B- F 18% 24% 58% A F B- A+ A- A B C+ B
1.36 71% 55% 46% +17 -1 1.33 29% 0.9 .25 11% .23 85% .19 0.98 88% 55% 31% +6 -2 1.11 27% 0.8 .21 24% .25 75% .19
Jan
1		 Western Illinois F C F A- F 50% 38% 12% F F B F F B+ A+ D- A+ C- F+ A+ F F 17% 36% 47% A+ F+ F A+ A B+ A F B
1.05 62% 19% 40% -4 -1 0.90 38% 0.5 .21 11% .54 68% .37 0.94 63% 18% 45% +1 -4 0.98 41% 0.3 .13 20% .22 73% .16
Jan
3		 Eastern Illinois F F A+ F F 22% 15% 63% D F C A+ A F A+ A A+ C+ F B A+ C+ 18% 33% 49% A- B- D A+ A- C F A+ F
0.97 44% 67% 19% -13 0 0.76 34% 1.5 .50 27% .53 85% .45 0.91 67% 31% 25% -7 -3 0.82 30% 0.5 .16 18% .42 65% .27
Jan
8		 Morehead St. B B- A A- B+ 36% 18% 45% D+ B+ A D- B- D+ A+ D- A+ C D+ B A- C+ 47% 13% 40% F C- F A- D- B+ F B+ D-
1.23 63% 50% 40% +8 0 1.18 46% 0.8 .39 16% .52 67% .35 1.10 62% 33% 28% -3 +2 1.00 51% 0.8 .40 21% .39 68% .27
Jan
10		 Southern Indiana B- D F A+ C 53% 14% 33% B+ C+ A+ C+ A+ F A A- A+ B+ A+ B B A 30% 23% 48% C+ A- D+ F+ D- B F B F
1.17 52% 17% 50% +2 +2 1.09 53% 1.0 .53 22% .41 80% .33 0.89 23% 30% 29% -16 -1 0.68 32% 1.0 .32 19% .57 62% .36
Jan
15		 SIU Edwardsville D+ C+ A F D 15% 17% 67% D+ D B B B+ D+ A+ F A+ B- A+ F A+ B+ 22% 41% 37% A+ A- B- D+ C F D+ A+ B+
1.02 57% 50% 26% -6 -1 0.87 38% 1.1 .41 17% .50 65% .32 0.93 42% 55% 15% -7 -4 0.80 25% 1.1 .27 9% .28 44% .12
Jan
17		 Lindenwood F+ B- C C- C 35% 26% 39% F+ C- C+ D- C- F F B- F A+ B+ C A+ A+ 18% 47% 36% A+ A+ C+ B B- A F B F
0.97 63% 36% 33% +1 -1 1.02 34% 0.9 .31 24% .20 73% .15 0.77 50% 33% 13% -15 -5 0.62 29% 1.0 .29 24% .50 63% .31
Jan
20		 Southeast Missouri St. F D+ F+ F F 36% 8% 56% B F A+ F C F A+ F C C+ B- A- C+ C 27% 15% 58% B- C+ F B F B- C A+ B+
0.78 54% 33% 20% -14 +1 0.78 46% 0.7 .31 33% .51 59% .30 1.03 54% 29% 32% -4 0 0.94 40% 1.1 .43 19% .33 53% .17
Jan
29		 Eastern Illinois C+ A A+ A+ A+ 34% 7% 59% B- A+ B F+ C- F A+ F B- C- F A+ A+ B- 38% 28% 34% D+ C+ D C D+ F F A+ F
1.12 71% 67% 42% +13 +1 1.32 39% 0.9 .36 30% .42 65% .27 1.01 65% 20% 22% -9 -1 0.83 30% 1.0 .30 12% .49 59% .29
Jan
31		 Western Illinois B+ B- A D C- 51% 8% 42% A- C A+ B+ A+ C C B C+ A+ A+ B- B+ A+ 37% 14% 49% F A- A- A+ A+ A D- C- D-
1.30 67% 50% 32% +4 +3 1.15 48% 1.3 .63 14% .30 76% .23 0.68 25% 33% 29% -17 +1 0.70 18% 0.3 .06 22% .35 67% .24
Feb
3		 Arkansas Little Rock F A C- D- D- 20% 8% 73% C- D- C- D D+ F F F F A C+ C- A+ B 41% 30% 28% D- B- B- D- C- A+ A+ C A+
0.89 75% 33% 31% 0 0 1.03 34% 0.8 .29 27% .22 50% .11 0.84 58% 36% 23% -5 -1 0.89 28% 1.1 .31 27% .07 67% .04
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Southern Indiana C+ D+ A+ D+ C 28% 26% 46% F C- A+ C+ A+ F B- F F+ B+ B A+ B- B+ 23% 34% 43% A+ A- D+ A+ B+ B- F D+ F
1.18 54% 50% 33% +1 -1 1.02 55% 1.0 .55 23% .35 53% .18 0.84 45% 13% 30% -14 -3 0.68 32% 0.6 .18 19% .42 68% .29
Feb
7		 Morehead St. F F D- F F 27% 7% 67% C+ F A F D- C A+ D A+ B- C+ A F C- 22% 41% 37% A+ B- D- B C- A- F F F
0.91 42% 33% 20% -19 +1 0.67 45% 0.6 .25 15% .49 68% .33 1.01 56% 29% 40% -1 -4 0.93 39% 0.8 .33 22% .38 89% .34
Feb
12		 Lindenwood C A- F A+ A- 42% 11% 47% B- A- C+ C- C F A- F D D+ F C C+ F 59% 13% 28% F F C A+ A A+ B F C-
1.07 68% 0% 43% +6 +1 1.18 33% 1.0 .33 25% .40 52% .21 1.08 78% 33% 31% +10 +2 1.26 31% 0.8 .23 25% .27 79% .21
Feb
14		 SIU Edwardsville A- A C- A+ A+ 27% 18% 55% C A+ D A- C F A+ A- A+ F+ A A+ F F+ 36% 11% 53% F F F F F A+ F D F
1.20 67% 38% 46% +12 0 1.25 27% 1.1 .31 21% .43 78% .34 1.12 44% 20% 46% +2 +1 1.09 41% 1.3 .51 27% .48 71% .34
Feb
17		 Southeast Missouri St. F D- F F F 30% 32% 38% F F C+ F F C- F+ F F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 19% 40% C A+ F A+ C- A+ F D+ F
0.74 50% 24% 15% -18 -2 0.62 29% 0.6 .17 18% .34 65% .22 0.78 40% 11% 21% -20 0 0.63 38% 0.9 .33 27% .46 71% .32
Feb
19		 Arkansas Little Rock C- C- F D F 31% 18% 51% D F A+ F B- B F C- F D F A F F+ 23% 47% 30% A+ D D F F B F B+ F
1.09 60% 11% 32% -6 0 0.90 53% 0.7 .38 15% .20 70% .14 1.12 80% 25% 46% +5 -4 1.02 33% 1.6 .53 20% .38 61% .23
Feb
26		 Tennessee Tech F C F F F 42% 15% 43% B F D D D- C- D- C D- A+ B A+ A+ A+ 15% 32% 54% A+ A+ A+ A A+ A F D- F
0.97 59% 25% 26% -7 +1 0.91 25% 1.1 .28 15% .23 77% .18 0.74 50% 15% 23% -17 -3 0.61 20% 0.9 .17 24% .54 81% .44
Feb
28		 Tennessee St. F F C- F F 29% 24% 48% F F F F F F F C- F B- F D C+ D- 20% 48% 32% A+ C- D+ C+ C- A A D A-
0.64 42% 40% 20% -14 -1 0.71 16% 0.8 .13 29% .23 73% .17 1.02 70% 42% 31% +3 -5 0.98 34% 1.0 .34 21% .19 80% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 100.0% 18.0% 18.0% 15.2 0.0 2.0 10.7 5.4 82.0
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 15.2 82.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 18.0% 100.0% 15.2 0.1 10.9 59.1 29.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 13.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 42.0%
Lose Out 26.4%