Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -4.5 241
Expected Predictive Rating -3.5 224
Pace 70.0 139
Improvement -2.1 273

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #277 D C D+ B+ F+
Defense C #188 D+ C+ C C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 220 60% 128 -0.2 183
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 15 37% 217 +4.1 25
Three Pointers 30% 352 26% 365 -8.9 363
1st FG Attempt 0.92 325 -5.0 325
Second Chance 30.4% 186 1.02 187 0.31 184
Turnovers 18.4% 276
Freethrows 0.36 34 75% 89 0.27 26
Total Offense -4.0 277

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 167 55% 104 +0.7 144
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 222 40% 254 +0.2 173
Three Pointers 42% 154 38% 340 -3.3 317
1st FG Attempt 1.07 259 -2.4 261
Second Chance 28.1% 89 1.02 171 0.29 102
Turnovers 16.9% 185
Freethrows 0.34 292 70% 47 0.24 257
Total Defense -0.5 188

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.6 342 +0.3 215
Shot Type Accuracy -3.4 300 +2.1 265
Possession Length 17.8 239 16.7 76
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 158 0.20 288
Improvement -4.5 #353 +2.3 #64

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.6
.500 or above 15% 25% 4%
.500 or above in Conference 32% 50% 13%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Home) - 51.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 73 - 12
Quad 411 - 513 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 202 @Buffalo L 79 - 85 32% +3  66% 0 - 1 D+ -6 B +6 B B F+ F -12 D- D F+
 Sun, Nov 9 90 @South Carolina L 79 - 83 OT 12% -2  42% 0 - 2 C+ +4 C+ +3 C C+ A- C+ +2 D- A+ A
 Thu, Nov 13 285 @Grambling St. L 70 - 75 48% -6  9% 0 - 3 D -9 D+ -3 F A+ A- D -6 F B B+
 Sat, Nov 22 345 North Florida W 92 - 83 77% -0  44% 1 - 3 C- -3 C+ +3 C+ B D D -6 F A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 219 Tennessee Martin W 70 - 60 44% +14  97% 2 - 3 B- +7 A+ +14 B A+ A- D+ -5 F+ A F
 Wed, Dec 3 233 @Radford W 82 - 75 37% +6  84% 3 - 3 B- +6 C- -1 F C- C- B+ +6 B+ B- D
 Sat, Dec 6 41 @Miami (FL) L 64 - 88 4% -5  39% 3 - 4 D -8 D- -7 D- A+ F C +0 C C+ B
 Mon, Dec 8 285 Grambling St. W 68 - 60 70% -1  29% 4 - 4 C- -2 D- -7 C- D+ F B +5 D+ A A+
 Sat, Dec 13 65 Mississippi L 67 - 71 12% -3  15% 4 - 5 C+ +4 C- -1 B C D- B +5 B- A- C-
 Thu, Dec 18 290 Louisiana W 62 - 54 72% +2  64% 5 - 5 1 - 0 C- -2 F -15 F F+ A+ A+ +13 A A+ D
 Sat, Dec 20 141 Arkansas St. L 86 - 93 40% -3  26% 5 - 6 1 - 1 D -9 B+ +7 B- B C F -16 B F F
 Mon, Dec 29 57 @LSU L 62 - 90 6% -14  3% 5 - 7 F+ -15 F+ -9 F F+ B D -6 C C+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 356 @Louisiana Monroe W 87 - 73 75% +11  100% 6 - 7 2 - 1 C+ +2 C- -2 B+ D- F B- +3 C C D
 Sat, Jan 3 290 @Louisiana W 74 - 67 50% +2  60% 7 - 7 3 - 1 C+ +3 C +0 B- D F B- +3 C- F B+
 Thu, Jan 8 234 Texas St. W 80 - 70 OT 60% -0  41% 8 - 7 4 - 1 C+ +3 D+ -4 D+ C- D+ B+ +6 B C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 356 Louisiana Monroe W 70 - 60 89% -0  49% 9 - 7 5 - 1 D+ -8 F -12 F D+ B+ B +5 C+ B B
 Wed, Jan 14 135 @Troy L 65 - 91 19% -12  10% 9 - 8 5 - 2 F -21 F+ -9 F B- F F -12 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 234 @Texas St. L 67 - 74 37% -3  24% 9 - 9 5 - 3 D -8 F+ -8 F F+ D+ C+ +0 D- B+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 276 @Georgia St. L 62 - 69 46% -2  33% 9 - 10 5 - 4 D -10 F -15 F F B- B +5 A F B
 Sat, Jan 24 238 @Coastal Carolina L 67 - 85 38% -12  0% 9 - 11 5 - 5 F -19 D -5 D+ D- B F -15 F C A+
 Thu, Jan 29 161 Appalachian St. L 63 - 70 45% -2  25% 9 - 12 5 - 6 D -10 F+ -8 D- D+ F+ C- -2 C- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 222 James Madison W 73 - 65 56% +5  91% 10 - 12 6 - 6 C+ +2 D+ -4 D- C- F+ B +6 A C- C-
 Wed, Feb 4 164 @Marshall L 77 - 81 25% +2  67% 10 - 13 6 - 7 C -1 B +6 C+ B F+ D- -8 F C D+
 Sat, Feb 7 147 Kent St. W 66 - 65 41% +0  56% 11 - 13 C -1 D- -7 F C+ D+ B +5 B B+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 191 South Alabama W 69 - 68 51%
 Sat, Feb 14 135 Troy L 71 - 74 38%
 Sat, Feb 21 253 Old Dominion W 76 - 72 62%
 Tue, Feb 24 141 @Arkansas St. L 73 - 82 20%
 Fri, Feb 27 191 @South Alabama L 65 - 71 29%
Totals 13 - 16 8 - 10 -5 D+ -4 D C D+ C -1 D+ C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C+ C- F D 37% 33% 30% F+ D C C C D+ B+ B- B+ C B- C- F+ D+ 39% 19% 42% C- D+ B- C C+ C D+ B C-
1.03 60% 37% 26% -3 -2 0.92 30% 1.0 .31 18% .36 75% .27 1.09 55% 40% 38% +2 0 1.07 28% 1.0 .29 17% .34 70% .25
Nov
3		 Buffalo B B- A+ C B- 49% 13% 38% B B D+ A+ B F+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ F F D 36% 7% 58% D- D- F B+ D F+ F B+ F
1.20 64% 67% 35% +7 +2 1.20 29% 1.3 .38 21% .39 95% .37 1.29 50% 67% 42% +6 +2 1.18 37% 0.9 .34 12% .62 69% .43
Nov
9		 South Carolina C+ A- C+ F+ B- 27% 41% 32% F C B- C- C+ A- B+ B+ B+ C+ A+ F F D- 21% 9% 70% C D- C+ A+ A+ A C- C- D+
1.05 67% 39% 28% 0 -3 0.95 33% 0.9 .30 12% .32 76% .24 1.11 45% 60% 41% +6 0 1.15 29% 0.5 .14 20% .35 81% .28
Nov
13		 Grambling St. D+ F F+ F F 57% 14% 29% B+ F A A A+ A- A+ F A- D D F F F 54% 6% 40% F F A D+ B B+ B D+ B-
1.00 43% 29% 14% -18 +2 0.69 44% 1.2 .54 16% .49 62% .31 1.08 62% 67% 42% +9 +3 1.25 21% 1.0 .21 24% .30 75% .23
Nov
22		 North Florida C+ B- A+ F B- 52% 30% 19% D C+ A- D+ B D A+ F A- D F F F F 24% 18% 58% A- F A+ F A+ A+ B C- B
1.29 64% 63% 20% +7 0 1.15 45% 1.1 .52 14% .42 62% .26 1.16 83% 56% 48% +22 -1 1.44 9% 1.5 .14 25% .19 80% .15
Nov
23		 Tennessee Martin A+ A D+ B+ B+ 31% 33% 36% D- B A A A+ A- C- F F+ D+ B- F D+ F 38% 20% 43% C- F+ A- A A F F A+ D+
1.25 71% 33% 38% +5 -2 1.07 42% 1.2 .48 14% .31 53% .17 1.08 53% 63% 35% +4 0 1.10 30% 0.7 .20 16% .43 55% .23
Dec
3		 Radford C- D D F+ F 33% 35% 33% F F B F C- C- A+ A+ A+ B+ A- A+ C+ A 39% 9% 52% D- B+ B C B- D D- D- F
1.09 53% 33% 29% -5 -2 0.87 38% 0.9 .32 19% .52 84% .44 1.00 48% 0% 32% -9 +1 0.87 25% 1.0 .25 15% .42 78% .33
Dec
6		 Miami (FL) D- C+ D- F D- 41% 30% 28% C- D- A+ A- A+ F A C+ A C D- B+ D C 45% 24% 31% B+ C F A+ C+ B D- D+ D-
0.87 58% 29% 23% -7 -1 0.85 36% 1.3 .45 27% .35 68% .24 1.19 70% 33% 38% +6 0 1.14 47% 0.8 .37 19% .40 71% .28
Dec
8		 Grambling St. D- A+ B F C 45% 26% 30% D C- C D D+ F F+ A- D B B A+ F D+ 49% 22% 29% D+ D+ F A+ A A+ F A+ F+
0.99 76% 42% 14% 0 0 1.02 34% 0.9 .31 25% .27 79% .21 0.87 50% 0% 58% -2 +1 1.00 42% 0.4 .16 31% .52 60% .31
Dec
13		 Mississippi C- D A+ F B+ 37% 30% 33% C- B C- B- C D- B+ D B- B D D+ A+ B 35% 30% 35% D- B- A+ F A- C- F B+ F
1.00 47% 64% 27% 0 -1 1.00 27% 1.1 .30 21% .38 65% .25 1.06 69% 43% 25% +1 -2 1.00 14% 1.8 .25 12% .44 69% .31
Dec
18		 Louisiana F F D D+ F 26% 31% 43% F F F A F+ A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A- 20% 49% 31% A+ A A+ A+ A+ D C F C-
0.91 9% 31% 33% -15 -2 0.67 18% 1.3 .23 12% .65 67% .43 0.80 36% 41% 24% -8 -5 0.76 13% 0.4 .05 15% .22 77% .17
Dec
20		 Arkansas St. B+ A D+ A+ A- 28% 40% 32% F B- C+ A B C A+ A+ A+ F B A+ D+ B+ 43% 16% 41% C B F+ F F F F F F
1.20 71% 35% 44% +7 -3 1.10 28% 1.3 .34 15% .44 93% .41 1.30 52% 13% 35% -6 +1 0.92 43% 1.6 .70 13% .53 82% .43
Dec
29		 LSU F+ C+ F F F 24% 49% 27% F F C+ F F+ B A+ A- A+ D F F+ C+ D 20% 35% 44% A+ C A- F C+ F D+ B+ C
0.88 58% 25% 23% -11 -5 0.71 31% 0.5 .15 14% .48 72% .35 1.28 82% 47% 33% +8 -3 1.11 29% 1.4 .41 9% .39 72% .28
Jan
1		 Louisiana Monroe C- B+ A+ C B+ 49% 13% 38% B- B+ C F D- F C A+ B+ B- B+ D C+ C 39% 21% 39% C- C A+ F C D D+ A C+
1.13 69% 71% 35% +11 +2 1.26 36% 0.9 .32 22% .25 87% .22 0.95 45% 42% 32% -5 0 0.91 14% 1.7 .24 16% .34 64% .22
Jan
3		 Louisiana C A+ D+ F B 49% 22% 29% C- B- C+ F D F A+ A+ A+ B- D C C- D+ 21% 44% 35% A C- D F F B+ F+ D- F
1.09 80% 33% 25% +6 +1 1.15 35% 0.8 .26 25% .59 83% .49 0.99 60% 38% 35% +1 -4 0.96 29% 1.8 .52 21% .30 75% .22
Jan
8		 Texas St. D+ A- D- D- C- 41% 36% 23% F D+ D+ C+ C- D+ B+ B- B+ B+ A- D+ A B+ 38% 21% 41% D+ B B+ D- C+ C- F+ A+ C-
1.04 70% 30% 31% +1 -2 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 19% .39 75% .29 0.91 48% 42% 26% -8 0 0.86 27% 1.0 .27 18% .35 64% .22
Jan
10		 Louisiana Monroe F C F F F 35% 27% 37% F F F A+ D+ B+ A+ D A+ B A+ A+ D B 42% 6% 52% F C+ F A+ B B C+ B B-
1.03 61% 21% 26% -8 -1 0.84 23% 1.6 .36 13% .41 67% .27 0.88 40% 0% 36% -8 +2 0.90 31% 0.6 .18 21% .30 69% .20
Jan
14		 Troy F+ C+ A- F F 41% 26% 33% C- F B C+ B- F B+ D B- F D- A+ F F 52% 7% 41% F+ F D+ A- C+ F B- B- B-
0.92 58% 50% 13% -7 0 0.87 35% 1.1 .38 26% .34 67% .23 1.29 64% 0% 50% +10 +3 1.28 36% 0.8 .30 11% .27 71% .19
Jan
17		 Texas St. F+ D A F F+ 38% 34% 28% F F F C+ F+ D+ A A+ A+ C+ A- F F D 49% 21% 31% F D- A C+ B+ A+ F D F
0.94 53% 47% 21% -4 -2 0.90 16% 1.0 .16 20% .42 83% .35 1.03 47% 50% 42% +1 +1 1.05 24% 0.8 .20 25% .65 80% .52
Jan
22		 Georgia St. F B- F+ F F 31% 33% 37% F F F A+ F B- C+ D C B A+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 21% 49% D- A F+ F F B F A- F
0.86 63% 29% 21% -8 -2 0.81 15% 1.3 .21 15% .31 68% .21 0.96 38% 22% 24% -17 -1 0.67 33% 1.7 .56 19% .50 72% .36
Jan
24		 Coastal Carolina D A- D F C 33% 45% 22% F+ D+ F A+ D- B A D- B F D F+ F F 33% 24% 42% D F C D+ C A+ F+ D F+
0.99 65% 35% 27% -1 -4 0.92 14% 1.4 .20 10% .38 65% .25 1.26 60% 45% 63% +21 -1 1.42 25% 1.0 .25 22% .32 76% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Appalachian St. F+ C- C- F D 39% 35% 27% F+ D- B F D+ F+ A+ C- A+ C- A+ A- F C 48% 15% 37% D- C- A- A+ A+ D F F F
0.95 53% 35% 23% -7 -2 0.84 36% 0.7 .24 18% .48 69% .33 1.05 41% 29% 47% -2 +1 1.00 23% 0.5 .11 14% .50 76% .38
Jan
31		 James Madison D+ B- D D- D+ 37% 39% 24% F D- D B C- F+ A+ A+ A+ B B- F+ A+ A+ 49% 16% 36% D- A B F C- C- F A+ F+
1.09 60% 31% 30% -3 -2 0.90 25% 1.1 .29 16% .61 82% .50 0.97 55% 43% 19% -9 +1 0.87 25% 1.3 .33 16% .47 58% .27
Feb
4		 Marshall B A+ F A+ B 12% 35% 53% F C+ A+ D B F+ A+ C A+ D- F F D- F 32% 30% 38% B- F B D- C D+ F B+ F
1.16 100% 13% 43% +4 -4 1.02 46% 0.8 .38 21% .57 70% .40 1.22 80% 50% 39% +13 -2 1.26 29% 1.2 .35 17% .40 68% .27
Feb
7		 Kent St. D- F D+ F+ F 38% 32% 30% F+ F A- D C+ D+ A+ A A+ B A+ F A- B+ 34% 16% 50% C B B+ B B+ F B+ A+ A+
1.02 44% 33% 29% -9 -1 0.81 38% 0.9 .33 17% .44 79% .35 1.00 41% 63% 28% -6 0 0.90 30% 1.0 .30 14% .32 44% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.5 3rd
4th 1.1 0.4 1.6 4th
5th 0.3 3.5 0.1 3.9 5th
6th 0.0 3.4 2.6 6.1 6th
7th 0.8 9.0 0.7 10.4 7th
8th 0.1 8.0 8.4 0.1 16.5 8th
9th 0.0 2.4 17.3 1.9 21.6 9th
10th 0.1 9.4 7.8 0.0 17.3 10th
11th 1.2 10.3 0.8 12.4 11th
12th 3.4 2.9 0.0 6.4 12th
13th 3.2 0.2 3.4 13th
14th 14th
Total 7.9 25.4 34.7 23.0 8.1 1.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 1.0% 10.4% 10.4% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
10-8 8.1% 2.9% 2.9% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 7.8
9-9 23.0% 0.9% 0.9% 15.2 0.2 0.1 22.8
8-10 34.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 34.5
7-11 25.4% 25.4
6-12 7.9% 7.9
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.1 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 7.9%