Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#224
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#210
Pace68.8#200
Improvement-0.1#196

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#173
First Shot-1.4#218
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#128
Layup/Dunks+2.0#110
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#79
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#336
Freethrows+0.9#135
Improvement-0.9#254

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#282
First Shot-5.7#348
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#60
Layups/Dunks+0.5#152
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#154
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.1#361
Freethrows+0.3#161
Improvement+0.8#115
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 6.2% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 14.9
.500 or above 42.0% 49.3% 24.1%
.500 or above in Conference 62.4% 66.3% 52.8%
Conference Champion 6.3% 7.4% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.6% 3.4%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round5.3% 6.0% 3.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Home) - 71.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 10
Quad 411 - 514 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 223 @Buffalo L 79-85 38%     0 - 1 -6.8 +8.9 -16.1
  Sun, Nov 9 87 @South Carolina L 79-83 OT 12%     0 - 2 +5.1 +5.2 +0.2
  Thu, Nov 13 284 @Grambling St. L 70-75 49%     0 - 3 -8.6 -2.5 -6.1
  Sat, Nov 22 344 North Florida W 92-83 77%     1 - 3 -2.6 +9.2 -12.0
  Sun, Nov 23 240 Tennessee Martin W 70-60 53%     2 - 3 +5.5 +14.2 -6.1
  Wed, Dec 3 288 @Radford W 82-75 51%     3 - 3 +2.9 +1.4 +1.0
  Sat, Dec 6 32 @Miami (FL) L 64-88 4%     3 - 4 -7.6 -2.8 -3.5
  Mon, Dec 8 284 Grambling St. W 74-68 71%    
  Sat, Dec 13 57 Mississippi L 66-80 10%    
  Thu, Dec 18 319 Louisiana W 73-65 78%    
  Sat, Dec 20 149 Arkansas St. L 79-80 46%    
  Mon, Dec 29 31 @LSU L 67-87 3%    
  Thu, Jan 1 360 @Louisiana Monroe W 79-72 75%    
  Sat, Jan 3 319 @Louisiana W 70-68 58%    
  Thu, Jan 8 237 Texas St. W 73-69 63%    
  Sat, Jan 10 360 Louisiana Monroe W 82-69 89%    
  Wed, Jan 14 147 @Troy L 70-77 25%    
  Sat, Jan 17 237 @Texas St. L 70-72 41%    
  Thu, Jan 22 338 @Georgia St. W 75-71 65%    
  Sat, Jan 24 235 @Coastal Carolina L 73-76 41%    
  Thu, Jan 29 282 Appalachian St. W 72-66 69%    
  Sat, Jan 31 177 James Madison W 76-75 52%    
  Wed, Feb 4 172 @Marshall L 75-81 31%    
  Thu, Feb 12 166 South Alabama L 71-72 49%    
  Sat, Feb 14 147 Troy L 73-74 44%    
  Sat, Feb 21 212 Old Dominion W 77-74 59%    
  Tue, Feb 24 149 @Arkansas St. L 76-83 26%    
  Fri, Feb 27 166 @South Alabama L 69-75 30%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.1 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 6.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 4.0 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.5 2.6 0.3 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.0 4.0 0.6 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 5.2 1.2 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 5.4 2.6 0.1 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.4 4.1 0.5 9.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.4 1.0 0.0 8.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.0 1.8 0.1 8.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.0 2.0 0.3 6.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.3 7.2 10.0 12.6 13.7 13.6 12.1 9.6 6.7 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 97.4% 0.7    0.7 0.1
15-3 85.0% 1.7    1.2 0.4 0.1
14-4 54.2% 2.1    1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 21.1% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 43.9% 43.9% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.8% 35.8% 35.8% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
15-3 2.0% 30.2% 30.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4
14-4 3.8% 23.5% 23.5% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.9
13-5 6.7% 18.5% 18.5% 14.7 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 5.4
12-6 9.6% 11.3% 11.3% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 8.5
11-7 12.1% 5.9% 5.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 11.4
10-8 13.6% 2.1% 2.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.3
9-9 13.7% 1.3% 1.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.6
8-10 12.6% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.6
7-11 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.0
6-12 7.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.2
5-13 4.3% 4.3
4-14 2.2% 2.2
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.4 0.9 94.6 0.0%