IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Louisiana
Sun Belt
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.1	#234
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.8	#242
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.1	#234

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.0	#238

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.7%	5.4%	2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.9	13.4	13.9

.500 or above	33.9%	49.2%	23.3%
.500 or above in Conference	49.6%	59.7%	42.7%
Conference Champion	4.3%	6.5%	2.8%
Last Place in Conference	6.5%	3.7%	8.4%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
First Round	3.7%	5.4%	2.5%
Second Round	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Away) - 40.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 4	1 - 5
Quad 3	3 - 8	4 - 12
Quad 4	10 - 5	14 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	244	@ Ball St.	L	68-71	41%
Nov 07, 2025	243	SE Louisiana	W	70-67	62%
Nov 11, 2025	116	Tulane	L	68-72	35%
Nov 14, 2025	96	@ McNeese St.	L	61-73	13%
Nov 18, 2025	95	@ Stanford	L	62-74	13%
Nov 21, 2025	105	@ Santa Clara	L	66-78	16%
Nov 24, 2025	252	@ UC Davis	L	66-68	43%
Nov 28, 2025	238	Jackson St.	W	72-69	61%
Dec 03, 2025	218	@ Lamar	L	63-67	38%
Dec 06, 2025	118	UNC Wilmington	L	67-71	37%
Dec 13, 2025	143	@ Louisiana Tech	L	61-69	25%
Dec 18, 2025	281	@ Southern Miss	L	72-73	49%
Dec 20, 2025	348	@ Louisiana Monroe	W	72-67	66%
Dec 28, 2025	251	Norfolk St.	W	70-66	62%
Dec 31, 2025	163	South Alabama	L	63-64	49%
Jan 03, 2026	281	Southern Miss	W	75-69	68%
Jan 08, 2026	348	Louisiana Monroe	W	75-64	82%
Jan 10, 2026	130	Troy	L	66-69	40%
Jan 14, 2026	193	@ Texas St.	L	66-71	34%
Jan 17, 2026	163	@ South Alabama	L	61-67	30%
Jan 22, 2026	201	@ Appalachian St.	L	60-65	35%
Jan 24, 2026	200	@ Old Dominion	L	66-71	35%
Jan 29, 2026	284	Georgia St.	W	75-69	70%
Jan 31, 2026	249	Georgia Southern	W	75-71	62%
Feb 04, 2026	129	@ James Madison	L	64-73	23%
Feb 12, 2026	275	Coastal Carolina	W	69-64	66%
Feb 19, 2026	140	Arkansas St.	L	71-73	42%
Feb 21, 2026	193	Texas St.	W	69-68	53%
Feb 24, 2026	130	@ Troy	L	63-72	23%
Feb 27, 2026	140	@ Arkansas St.	L	68-76	25%
Projected Record						13 - 17	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.6	1.3	1.2	0.8	0.2	0.0		4.3	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.9	2.0	1.5	0.5	0.1	0.0			5.2	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.1	2.6	1.8	0.4	0.0					6.1	3rd
4th										0.0	1.1	3.3	2.4	0.5	0.1						7.4	4th
5th									0.0	0.6	3.0	3.1	0.7	0.0							7.4	5th
6th									0.3	2.8	4.1	1.1	0.1								8.4	6th
7th							0.0	0.2	2.0	4.7	2.1	0.1									9.2	7th
8th						0.0	0.1	1.4	4.3	3.0	0.3										9.1	8th
9th					0.0	0.1	0.9	3.8	3.9	0.7	0.0										9.3	9th
10th					0.0	0.6	3.3	4.0	1.2	0.1											9.3	10th
11th					0.5	2.4	3.8	1.4	0.1												8.1	11th
12th			0.0	0.4	2.0	2.8	1.6	0.2													7.1	12th
13th		0.0	0.4	1.6	2.3	1.2	0.2														5.6	13th
14th	0.1	0.5	1.1	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0														3.4	14th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.5	3.0	5.3	7.2	9.9	11.0	11.8	12.0	10.8	8.9	6.8	4.9	3.3	1.8	0.8	0.3	0.0			Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	98.4%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	91.2%	0.8		0.6	0.1
15-3	67.7%	1.2		0.8	0.3	0.0
14-4	38.8%	1.3		0.4	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-5	12.8%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1
12-6	2.0%	0.1			0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.3%	4.3		2.2	1.4	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		60.1%	60.1%		10.5								0.0				0.0	0.0					0.0
17-1	0.3%		46.6%	46.6%		11.8											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0				0.1
16-2	0.8%		34.8%	34.8%		12.3												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.5
15-3	1.8%		31.9%	31.9%		13.0												0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0		1.2
14-4	3.3%		20.6%	20.6%		13.4												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	2.6
13-5	4.9%		15.3%	15.3%		13.8													0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	4.2
12-6	6.8%		8.2%	8.2%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	6.3
11-7	8.9%		4.0%	4.0%		15.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	8.6
10-8	10.8%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	10.6
9-9	12.0%		1.1%	1.1%		15.9														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	11.8
8-10	11.8%		0.4%	0.4%		15.4															0.0	0.0	0.0	11.8
7-11	11.0%		0.0%	0.0%		30.6																0.0	0.0	11.0
6-12	9.9%																							9.9
5-13	7.2%																							7.2
4-14	5.3%																							5.3
3-15	3.0%																							3.0
2-16	1.5%																							1.5
1-17	0.5%																							0.5
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		3.7%	3.7%	0.0%	13.9								0.0			0.0	0.1	0.6	0.9	1.2	0.7	0.3	96.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%