Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -9.2 313
Results Rating -10.6 327
Consistency 0.10 6
Pace 69.5 145
Improvement -4.0 321

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 309 D C- D+ C D+
Defense D+ 286 D D+ C D- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 139 D- 50% 350 -2.4 271
2 Pt. Jumpers 60% 13 C- 37% 220 +2.4 59
Three Pointers 32% 345 B- 36% 107 -3.7 304
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 296 D+ -2.9 275
1st FG Attempt D 0.95 294
Second Chance C 29.6% 197 C- 1.00 237 C- 0.29 214
Opponents' Steals D 11.1% 318
Other Turnovers C- 7.5% 226
Turnovers D+ 18.6% 298
Freethrows B- 0.33 80 F+ 67% 342 C 0.22 165
Total Offense D -5.4 309

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots F+ 33% 350 D+ 12.8% 298
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 216 D+ 7.0% 301
Three Pointers B 90% 56 C- 1.0% 238
Total D- 46% 335 D- 7.4% 338


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 157 D- 65% 344 +3.4 296
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% 362 D+ 41% 285 -3.1 5
Three Pointers 49% 12 C+ 33% 155 +3.6 329
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.2 354 D+ +2.7 288
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 316
Second Chance D+ 32.9% 289 C 1.04 204 D+ 0.34 270
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.6% 241
Other Turnovers B- 8.1% 82
Turnovers C 16.7% 178
Freethrows D- 0.37 338 C+ 72% 128 D- 0.26 331
Total Defense D+ -3.8 286

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 54% 289 D+ 9.1% 245
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 43% 358 D- 1.4% 347
Three Pointers D 88% 313 C- 0.7% 203
Total D- 65% 344 D 4.1% 301

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 232 17.2 155
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 95 0.24 349
Consistency 0.10 40 0.11 57
Improvement +2.4 71 -6.4 361

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 321 310 292
Results Rating Rank 337 320 298
Conference Record 8 - 6 8 - 6 9 - 5
Conference Finish 4 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12% 15% 11%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 5% 15% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four12% 14% 11%
First Round5% 6% 5%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Howard (Home) - 33.2% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 412 - 812 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 139 William & Mary L 78 - 81 24% +4  75% 0 - 1 C- -5 D- -7 B+ F F B- +2 B- F A
 Tue, Nov 11 248 @Old Dominion L 57 - 60 24% -1  34% 0 - 2 C- -5 F+ -10 F B F B +5 B B- C-
 Fri, Nov 14 167 @Towson L 41 - 51 14% +1  52% 0 - 3 D+ -8 F -23 F B+ A A+ +14 A+ A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 21 263 Hampton W 62 - 60 48% +2  74% 1 - 3 D+ -7 D- -8 D D- B- C+ +1 F B- B-
 Sun, Nov 23 100 @Wyoming L 67 - 75 7% -11  4% 1 - 4 C -0 C- -2 D+ D+ D+ C+ +2 A+ F A
 Sat, Nov 29 4 @Arizona L 61 - 98 0% -17  7% 1 - 5 D -8 D+ -4 B B C C- -2 C C C-
 Sat, Dec 6 198 @James Madison L 67 - 68 17% -4  6% 1 - 6 C -0 D+ -3 A- C F B- +3 B+ D F
 Wed, Dec 10 47 @Baylor L 67 - 97 2% -16  1% 1 - 7 F+ -15 F+ -10 F D- B- D+ -3 D+ C+ C+
 Thu, Dec 18 308 Grambling St. L 68 - 80 49% -14  0% 1 - 8 F -21 F -11 F C- B F+ -9 F A+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 345 Jackson St. W 82 - 72 64% +11  83% 2 - 8 C- -3 D+ -4 B F F+ C+ +1 D- C- B+
 Sun, Dec 21 260 @UTEP W 72 - 71 26% +3  66% 3 - 8 C -2 D+ -2 B- F F+ C+ +1 D- F+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 123 UC Irvine L 70 - 89 13% -16  0% 3 - 9 F+ -16 B- +4 B A F+ F -21 F F D-
 Sun, Dec 28 298 @Louisiana L 54 - 63 35% -9  0% 3 - 10 D- -14 F -12 F D- C+ D+ -4 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 347 @NC Central L 67 - 69 54% -3  16% 3 - 11 0 - 1 D- -12 F -12 F F C C -1 D A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 361 @Delaware St. W 66 - 64 72% -1  34% 4 - 11 1 - 1 D- -13 F -13 C F F C -1 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 350 Maryland Eastern Shore L 70 - 74 76% -0  38% 4 - 12 1 - 2 F -20 D+ -4 F A+ B F -17 D D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 359 @South Carolina St. W 89 - 82 66% -0  39% 5 - 12 2 - 2 D+ -6 B +6 C A+ F F -13 F D C
 Sat, Jan 24 362 Coppin St. W 103 - 76 87% +15  96% 6 - 12 3 - 2 B- +6 B +6 A+ F F D+ -4 F D B-
 Mon, Jan 26 349 Morgan St. L 78 - 79 76% +3  60% 6 - 13 3 - 3 F+ -17 F -13 F C+ B D+ -4 F B C+
 Sat, Jan 31 182 @Howard L 60 - 88 16% -15  0% 6 - 14 3 - 4 F -27 F -11 F F C- F -15 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 347 NC Central W 75 - 68 75% +3  70% 7 - 14 4 - 4 D -9 F -11 D C+ F C+ +2 D- A- A
 Sat, Feb 14 361 Delaware St. W 75 - 58 87% +10  85% 8 - 14 5 - 4 C- -4 C+ +2 C- A+ D+ D+ -5 C- B D
 Mon, Feb 16 350 @Maryland Eastern Shore W 70 - 66 55% +1  60% 9 - 14 6 - 4 D+ -6 B- +5 A- B D F -11 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 21 359 South Carolina St. W 90 - 71 83% +10  96% 10 - 14 7 - 4 C -0 B- +5 A+ D- D+ D -6 C F A+
 Sat, Feb 28 362 @Coppin St. W 75 - 69 73% +6  89% 11 - 14 8 - 4 D -9 C- -1 D- A B+ D- -8 B+ F F
 Mon, Mar 2 349 @Morgan St. L 84 - 90 55% -10  6% 11 - 15 8 - 5 F+ -16 D+ -4 F C A F -12 F A+ F
 Thu, Mar 5 182 Howard L 70 - 75 33%
Totals 11 - 16 8 - 6 -9 D -5 C+ D+ D+ D+ -4 B- F+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- C- B- D+ 40% 60% 32% D+ D C C- C- D+ B- F+ C D+ D- D+ C+ D+ 39% 12% 49% D- D D+ C D+ C D- C+ D-
1.01 50% 37% 36% -3 -1 0.95 30% 1.0 .29 19% .33 67% .22 1.14 65% 41% 33% +3 +1 1.10 33% 1.0 .34 17% .37 72% .24
Nov
8		 William & Mary D- D D- A+ B+ 40% 12% 48% B- B+ B- F F F A+ F A+ B- B+ F C+ B 42% 2% 56% D- B- D- F F A F B+ F
1.01 55% 33% 46% +7 +1 1.18 33% 0.4 .12 25% .54 55% .29 1.05 53% 100% 32% -3 +3 1.02 30% 1.7 .52 22% .57 71% .40
Nov
11		 Old Dominion F+ F B F F 42% 27% 31% D+ F A D B F F A+ D B F C- A+ B+ 35% 19% 47% F+ B D- A+ B- C- F C F+
0.96 42% 42% 21% -12 -1 0.78 42% 0.9 .39 20% .27 85% .23 1.01 80% 38% 15% -6 0 0.91 30% 0.8 .23 15% .38 74% .28
Nov
14		 Towson F F F+ F F 33% 37% 29% F F B+ B B+ A D- F F A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 22% 16% 61% D A+ C+ A+ A+ D- F+ A D+
0.69 6% 32% 13% -29 -3 0.39 33% 1.1 .35 10% .21 27% .06 0.86 55% 25% 20% -16 -1 0.69 34% 0.4 .15 13% .35 61% .21
Nov
21		 Hampton D- F C+ A+ D 43% 30% 27% D D C- F D- B- B- F F+ C+ F B- D- F 21% 28% 51% B+ F B- C+ B- B- B A+ A+
1.00 47% 38% 42% -1 -1 0.98 28% 0.8 .22 15% .42 50% .21 0.97 78% 33% 36% +5 -2 1.07 29% 0.9 .26 19% .30 53% .16
Nov
23		 Wyoming C- F A- B D+ 43% 25% 32% D D+ B F D+ D+ A+ B A+ C+ A+ F A- A+ 49% 2% 49% F A+ F F F A F C- F
1.00 42% 45% 36% -4 0 0.93 31% 0.7 .22 18% .53 72% .38 1.12 38% 100% 29% -12 +3 0.84 46% 1.3 .60 21% .59 77% .45
Nov
29		 Arizona D+ B- B F B+ 29% 49% 22% F B D+ A+ B C F F F C- F+ D A+ C+ 57% 25% 18% F+ C C+ D+ C C- F B+ F
0.81 56% 41% 25% -2 -4 0.89 20% 1.3 .25 19% .15 22% .03 1.30 72% 46% 22% +7 +1 1.18 39% 1.1 .42 13% .70 70% .49
Dec
6		 James Madison D+ A+ C+ B+ A+ 42% 40% 18% F A- C+ C- C F C F F B- F B+ A+ A- 31% 15% 54% C+ B+ A F D F F A+ C
1.03 74% 39% 38% +8 -2 1.13 31% 1.0 .31 23% .34 47% .16 1.05 73% 29% 23% -6 0 0.92 22% 1.6 .36 12% .39 55% .21
Dec
10		 Baylor F+ A+ C- F D+ 8% 72% 21% F F D F+ D- B- A+ D- A+ D+ F B+ F+ D- 29% 37% 34% B+ D+ C C+ C+ C+ C F D
0.88 100% 37% 18% -3 -9 0.79 24% 0.9 .21 16% .41 69% .28 1.27 88% 36% 40% +11 -3 1.19 38% 1.1 .41 16% .33 81% .26
Dec
18		 Grambling St. F D+ F F F 46% 26% 28% D F C D+ C- B A- F F F+ F A+ F F 41% 19% 41% D+ F A+ C A+ F D+ D- D
0.92 57% 23% 21% -10 0 0.82 34% 1.0 .34 18% .41 44% .18 1.08 73% 10% 41% +5 0 1.13 7% 1.0 .07 12% .34 77% .26
Dec
19		 Jackson St. D+ A- B- A+ A 20% 37% 43% F B D F F F+ A- A A+ C+ D+ A+ F F 24% 34% 42% A- D- D+ C C- B+ C- C+ C
1.12 70% 39% 48% +11 -3 1.18 32% 0.7 .24 19% .41 83% .34 0.99 58% 24% 43% +1 -3 0.98 29% 1.0 .29 22% .28 75% .21
Dec
21		 UTEP D+ F A+ A B- 38% 24% 38% C B- D+ F F F+ A+ F A+ C+ F A+ B D 36% 18% 46% F D- F B+ F+ A+ F A+ D-
1.04 41% 64% 41% +4 -1 1.09 30% 0.7 .21 22% .55 63% .35 1.02 78% 22% 30% +2 0 1.06 39% 0.9 .34 23% .50 44% .22
Dec
22		 UC Irvine B- D D- A+ A- 28% 41% 30% F B F A+ A F+ A+ A A+ F F F B+ F 44% 16% 40% F F F F F D- D- F F
1.03 46% 32% 50% +1 -3 0.98 23% 1.9 .43 22% .38 80% .30 1.31 73% 50% 30% +6 +1 1.16 41% 1.3 .55 15% .34 85% .29
Dec
28		 Louisiana F F F B+ F 41% 18% 41% C- F D+ F D- C+ D- D- F+ D+ C F+ F F 24% 24% 52% D- F C+ A+ A+ F D- D D-
0.92 33% 13% 39% -12 0 0.80 30% 0.8 .24 17% .33 69% .23 1.07 55% 45% 42% +7 -1 1.13 26% 0.4 .10 12% .29 73% .21
Jan
3		 NC Central F F A F F 43% 26% 32% D F C+ F F C A- F B- C F A- A+ D+ 50% 14% 36% F D F A+ A+ B- F A- F
1.00 50% 50% 27% -4 0 0.94 40% 0.6 .24 18% .36 65% .24 1.03 68% 29% 22% -3 +2 1.00 45% 0.3 .14 19% .46 68% .31
Jan
10		 Delaware St. F D+ A+ C- C 49% 22% 29% C- C F+ F+ F F A D- B C C+ F A+ F 42% 15% 44% F F F F F A+ A- F B-
0.93 60% 56% 33% +4 +1 1.12 24% 1.0 .24 28% .42 67% .28 0.91 50% 100% 24% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.0 .32 27% .21 82% .17
Jan
12		 Maryland Eastern Shore D+ D F+ F F 44% 26% 31% D+ F C+ A+ A+ B A+ D A+ F F A+ C- D+ 44% 14% 42% F D F+ B- D+ F F D F
1.10 53% 30% 17% -12 0 0.77 34% 2.0 .69 14% .60 70% .42 1.16 68% 0% 33% -1 +1 1.02 35% 0.8 .29 14% .68 76% .51
Jan
17		 South Carolina St. B C F+ B- D+ 62% 8% 30% B+ C C A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ F F B- D+ F 31% 18% 51% F F F A- D C F+ F F
1.24 61% 33% 36% +2 +3 1.14 38% 1.8 .67 21% .83 79% .65 1.14 67% 33% 36% +3 0 1.08 42% 0.8 .33 21% .39 82% .32
Jan
24		 Coppin St. B A F A+ A+ 39% 7% 54% B+ A+ C F F F A+ C+ A+ D+ F A B+ F 37% 17% 46% F+ F C- D D B- F A+ F
1.28 72% 0% 56% +21 +2 1.48 35% 0.8 .27 24% .70 77% .54 0.95 76% 25% 29% +1 0 1.04 30% 1.1 .33 24% .62 47% .29
Jan
26		 Morgan St. F F A+ F F 62% 9% 29% A- F C- B C+ B C- F F+ D+ F D+ D+ F 34% 20% 46% D- F A+ F B C+ F D+ F
1.03 47% 60% 12% -15 +3 0.79 34% 1.3 .45 12% .40 59% .24 1.04 65% 40% 35% +3 0 1.08 12% 1.5 .18 18% .42 77% .32
Jan
31		 Howard F F F B+ F 51% 16% 33% C+ F F F F C- A- B- A- F D A+ F F 50% 9% 41% F F F F F A+ F F F
0.86 40% 13% 38% -12 +1 0.82 24% 0.8 .18 20% .39 73% .29 1.26 59% 25% 44% +6 +2 1.18 59% 1.3 .77 27% .57 86% .49
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 NC Central F D A+ D- F 55% 7% 38% A D C C+ C+ F A+ B+ A+ C+ B+ F B- F+ 45% 24% 31% D+ D- A- A- A- A B+ D B-
1.05 57% 67% 31% 0 +3 1.07 39% 1.0 .39 28% .52 78% .41 0.95 48% 67% 31% +1 0 1.04 21% 0.8 .18 22% .25 79% .20
Feb
14		 Delaware St. C+ A F B- C- 44% 23% 33% D+ C- B+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F A D+ F+ A A+ C 42% 29% 29% F+ C- A- B- B D F D F
1.19 74% 20% 36% +4 0 1.09 39% 1.4 .55 19% .53 59% .31 0.92 63% 27% 18% -8 -1 0.84 19% 0.7 .13 17% .69 72% .50
Feb
16		 Maryland Eastern Shore B- C+ C A+ A+ 33% 28% 40% F+ A- B+ C B D A F C+ F B- A+ F F+ 40% 9% 51% F F D- F F D- D A+ C+
1.18 62% 36% 50% +10 -1 1.20 39% 1.1 .43 19% .44 62% .27 1.12 53% 25% 41% +2 +2 1.09 34% 1.1 .38 20% .28 54% .15
Feb
21		 South Carolina St. B- B D A+ A+ 49% 16% 35% C- A+ F B D- D+ D B D+ D A+ F D+ B 51% 13% 36% F C F F F A+ F F F
1.26 67% 38% 59% +17 +1 1.39 28% 1.3 .36 18% .36 76% .27 0.99 30% 80% 36% -8 +2 0.90 42% 1.2 .52 32% .60 83% .50
Feb
28		 Coppin St. C- A- F B- D+ 32% 32% 36% F D- F+ A+ A B+ A+ B A+ D- A- C- A+ A- 33% 16% 51% D- B+ F D- F F F C F
1.14 71% 29% 38% +3 -2 1.05 27% 2.0 .55 14% .51 79% .40 1.04 44% 38% 24% -12 0 0.78 44% 1.1 .49 14% .49 68% .33
Mar
2		 Morgan St. D+ F F F F 63% 13% 24% B F B F+ C A D D- D- F D+ A- F F 38% 13% 49% F F A+ A A+ F D+ F D-
1.11 49% 25% 20% -13 +3 0.82 41% 1.0 .43 9% .38 65% .25 1.19 57% 29% 52% +12 +1 1.27 10% 0.7 .06 12% .36 83% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 7.3 7.3 2nd
3rd 18.7 25.9 44.6 3rd
4th 48.1 48.1 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
Total 66.8 33.2 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5 0.0%
8-6 0.0%
7-7
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4
9-5 33.2% 14.6% 14.6% 16.0 4.9 28.3
8-6 66.8% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 7.0 59.8
7-7
6-8
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 16.0 88.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.9% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 13.1%
Lose Out 17.3%