UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#120
Expected Predictive Rating+0.6#161
Pace71.3#138
Improvement+0.8#128

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#276
First Shot-4.9#309
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#135
Layup/Dunks-1.0#217
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#146
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#328
Freethrows+1.2#110
Improvement+0.7#120

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#23
First Shot+7.0#20
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#193
Layups/Dunks+2.1#100
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#79
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#116
Freethrows+1.5#95
Improvement+0.1#181
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.4% 21.7% 17.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.9 13.4
.500 or above 90.7% 95.4% 86.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.0% 96.3% 93.8%
Conference Champion 24.0% 28.1% 19.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round19.4% 21.7% 17.0%
Second Round2.0% 2.5% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 50.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 37 - 68 - 10
Quad 411 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 131 California Baptist L 61-69 65%     0 - 1 -9.0 -13.1 +4.2
  Sat, Nov 15 195 Weber St. W 79-70 78%     1 - 1 +3.8 -5.0 +8.0
  Wed, Nov 19 83 @Utah Valley L 72-79 26%     1 - 2 +2.6 +4.8 -2.1
  Sat, Nov 22 98 Northern Iowa L 69-70 OT 53%     1 - 3 +1.2 -1.2 +2.4
  Tue, Nov 25 127 New Mexico St. L 45-57 53%     1 - 4 -9.7 -26.4 +16.7
  Wed, Nov 26 153 South Dakota St. W 64-52 61%     2 - 4 +12.0 -11.1 +22.5
  Sun, Nov 30 182 @San Jose St. W 72-63 56%     3 - 4 +10.4 +3.8 +7.0
  Thu, Dec 4 258 UC Riverside W 73-60 85%     4 - 4 1 - 0 +4.7 -3.2 +8.2
  Sat, Dec 6 261 Cal St. Northridge W 85-71 85%     5 - 4 2 - 0 +5.6 +8.8 -3.2
  Fri, Dec 19 90 Belmont W 72-71 50%    
  Sun, Dec 21 155 North Dakota St. W 69-66 62%    
  Thu, Jan 1 295 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-67 76%    
  Sat, Jan 3 303 @Cal St. Fullerton W 81-73 77%    
  Thu, Jan 8 280 Long Beach St. W 74-62 88%    
  Sun, Jan 11 104 @Hawaii L 67-71 34%    
  Sat, Jan 17 170 @UC Davis W 67-66 53%    
  Thu, Jan 22 258 @UC Riverside W 72-67 68%    
  Sat, Jan 24 103 @UC San Diego L 68-73 33%    
  Thu, Jan 29 104 Hawaii W 70-68 55%    
  Thu, Feb 5 295 Cal St. Bakersfield W 77-64 88%    
  Sat, Feb 7 141 @UC Santa Barbara L 70-71 45%    
  Thu, Feb 12 252 @Cal Poly W 79-74 67%    
  Sat, Feb 14 303 Cal St. Fullerton W 84-70 89%    
  Thu, Feb 19 280 @Long Beach St. W 71-65 72%    
  Sat, Feb 21 103 UC San Diego W 71-70 54%    
  Thu, Feb 26 261 @Cal St. Northridge W 76-71 68%    
  Sat, Feb 28 141 UC Santa Barbara W 73-68 66%    
  Thu, Mar 5 252 Cal Poly W 82-71 84%    
  Sat, Mar 7 170 UC Davis W 70-63 73%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 6.4 7.0 4.5 1.7 0.3 24.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.1 6.1 8.2 5.7 1.7 0.2 24.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.9 6.9 3.4 0.5 0.0 21.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.0 5.7 4.1 1.5 0.2 15.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.6 0.7 0.1 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.8 4.9 7.3 11.0 13.6 15.4 14.9 12.6 8.8 4.7 1.7 0.3 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.7    1.6 0.0
18-2 95.9% 4.5    4.0 0.5 0.0
17-3 80.1% 7.0    5.1 1.8 0.1
16-4 50.8% 6.4    3.2 2.6 0.5 0.0
15-5 20.9% 3.1    1.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.2% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.0% 24.0 15.5 6.7 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 59.0% 59.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
19-1 1.7% 45.9% 45.9% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9
18-2 4.7% 42.7% 42.7% 12.3 0.1 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.7
17-3 8.8% 36.7% 36.7% 12.7 0.1 1.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 5.6
16-4 12.6% 30.9% 30.9% 13.0 0.0 0.9 2.1 0.8 0.0 8.7
15-5 14.9% 24.8% 24.8% 13.2 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.1 0.1 11.2
14-6 15.4% 17.8% 17.8% 13.5 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 12.6
13-7 13.6% 11.1% 11.1% 13.9 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 12.1
12-8 11.0% 7.4% 7.4% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 10.2
11-9 7.3% 4.6% 4.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.0
10-10 4.9% 3.0% 3.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.7
9-11 2.8% 1.9% 1.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 2.7
8-12 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.3
7-13 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.5 8.2 4.6 1.3 0.1 80.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.5 2.6 7.9 10.5 13.2 44.7 21.1