Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
83 UC San Diego 44.7%   12   9 - 1 1 - 0 25 - 5 16 - 4 +6.9      +4.0 82 +2.9 92 71.4 128 +13.5 39 +12.0 1
109 Hawaii 23.1%   8 - 2 2 - 0 20 - 8 14 - 6 +3.8      -2.7 241 +6.5 31 72.1 108 +3.9 112 +9.5 2
131 UC Irvine 13.5%   7 - 5 2 - 0 18 - 12 13 - 7 +1.8      -3.3 258 +5.1 50 71.3 132 +1.4 151 +7.7 3
150 UC Santa Barbara 9.9%   7 - 4 2 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 8 +0.7      +3.1 99 -2.5 250 64.3 315 +0.8 154 +5.1 4
176 UC Davis 4.8%   5 - 5 0 - 1 15 - 14 10 - 10 -1.2      -0.4 173 -0.8 195 70.0 168 +1.7 144 -8.4 8
212 Cal St. Northridge 1.9%   6 - 5 1 - 1 14 - 16 9 - 11 -3.3      -0.7 181 -2.7 261 78.9 13 -1.0 180 -3.2 6
242 Cal St. Fullerton 0.8%   3 - 8 0 - 2 10 - 20 7 - 13 -4.7      -2.2 229 -2.5 252 83.4 4 -5.7 250 -20.1 11
257 Cal Poly 0.6%   3 - 9 1 - 1 10 - 20 8 - 12 -5.4      -2.4 232 -3.0 274 86.0 3 -6.0 253 -5.3 7
272 UC Riverside 0.5%   4 - 8 1 - 1 11 - 19 8 - 12 -6.0      -2.1 223 -3.9 308 68.7 209 -4.0 230 +1.2 5
275 Long Beach St. 0.4%   2 - 10 0 - 2 9 - 21 7 - 13 -6.2      -1.7 211 -4.5 321 67.4 241 -9.0 307 -11.4 9
305 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1%   4 - 8 0 - 2 9 - 21 5 - 15 -8.2      -5.3 317 -2.9 273 72.0 110 -6.5 261 -13.9 10




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 20 135 St. Thomas 92 272 UC Riverside 78   
Sun, Dec 21 155 North Dakota St. 73 131 UC Irvine 74   
Sun, Dec 21 175 Idaho St. 83 176 UC Davis 93   
Sun, Dec 21 257 Cal Poly 80 177 Idaho 83   
Sun, Dec 21 242 Cal St. Fullerton 89 55 Oklahoma St. 94   
Sun, Dec 21 3 Iowa St. 91 275 Long Beach St. 60   
Mon, Dec 22 212 Cal St. Northridge 100 276 Sacramento St. 88   
Mon, Dec 22 243 Norfolk St. 70 131 UC Irvine 89   
Mon, Dec 22 256 Portland 61 150 UC Santa Barbara 79   
Tue, Dec 23 305 Cal St. Bakersfield 64 177 Idaho 63   
Tue, Dec 23 272 UC Riverside 65 30 UCLA 97   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 27 212 Cal St. Northridge 75 81 Stanford 88 89%   
Sun, Dec 28 242 Cal St. Fullerton 75 42 SMU 95 96%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC San Diego 1.7 60.2 22.7 9.8 4.4 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hawaii 2.5 29.6 30.5 19.1 10.9 5.3 2.7 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
UC Irvine 3.3 14.6 22.9 23.9 18.0 10.4 5.2 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1
UC Santa Barbara 3.8 9.7 17.2 21.3 19.7 14.0 8.5 4.8 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.2
UC Davis 5.2 2.9 7.6 12.8 17.2 18.4 14.3 10.1 7.1 4.9 3.1 1.6
Cal St. Northridge 6.3 1.0 3.2 7.0 11.4 15.8 16.9 14.8 11.8 9.1 6.1 2.9
Cal St. Fullerton 7.7 0.2 1.0 2.7 5.3 8.8 12.4 14.4 15.5 15.5 13.6 10.7
Cal Poly 7.5 0.2 1.0 2.7 5.6 9.5 13.6 15.5 16.2 15.2 12.5 8.0
UC Riverside 7.4 0.3 1.0 2.8 5.7 10.0 13.9 15.8 15.8 14.8 12.0 8.0
Long Beach St. 8.2 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.5 6.6 10.3 13.4 14.8 16.7 17.3 15.2
Cal St. Bakersfield 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.3 8.3 11.6 15.8 21.6 32.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC San Diego 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.6 6.6 10.3 14.2 17.1 18.3 14.7 9.0 3.0
Hawaii 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.4 5.9 9.1 12.8 15.2 16.1 14.2 10.6 6.5 2.6 0.6
UC Irvine 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.2 7.1 10.5 13.9 15.6 15.0 12.7 8.9 5.1 2.2 0.7 0.1
UC Santa Barbara 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.2 7.1 10.0 12.8 14.4 14.6 12.6 9.5 6.4 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.0
UC Davis 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.2 6.8 9.7 12.3 13.7 13.9 12.3 9.8 6.8 3.8 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 9 - 11 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.4 5.2 8.0 11.5 13.9 14.4 13.7 11.2 8.4 5.2 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 7 - 13 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.0 7.3 10.9 14.0 14.9 14.1 11.8 8.8 5.8 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Cal Poly 8 - 12 0.2 1.0 2.9 6.3 10.5 13.3 15.4 15.2 13.1 9.4 6.4 3.3 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
UC Riverside 8 - 12 0.1 0.9 2.9 5.9 9.9 13.6 15.3 14.9 13.3 9.8 6.5 3.8 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 7 - 13 0.2 0.8 2.7 5.8 9.5 13.2 15.5 15.0 13.1 10.1 6.6 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 5 - 15 0.7 3.1 7.2 11.6 15.1 16.7 15.2 11.9 8.6 4.9 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC San Diego 60.2% 47.6 10.8 1.6 0.2 0.0
Hawaii 29.6% 20.0 8.0 1.5 0.2 0.0
UC Irvine 14.6% 8.4 4.9 1.2 0.1 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 9.7% 5.5 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
UC Davis 2.9% 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC San Diego 44.7% 44.4% 0.4% 12   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 9.4 24.3 8.4 0.7 0.0 55.3 0.7%
Hawaii 23.1% 23.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 7.3 10.1 3.8 0.5 0.0 76.9 0.0%
UC Irvine 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.9 4.1 1.0 0.1 86.5 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.3 4.2 3.4 1.0 0.1 90.1 0.0%
UC Davis 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.1 95.2 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 98.1 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 99.2 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.4 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC San Diego 44.7% 0.3% 44.6% 8.7% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 23.1% 0.0% 23.1% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Irvine 13.5% 0.0% 13.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 9.9% 0.0% 9.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 4.8% 0.0% 4.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 1.9% 0.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.6 0.4
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 99.4 0.2
2nd Round 13.3% 0.1 86.8 13.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.5% 0.0 97.5 2.5
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0