Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
103 UC San Diego 29.9%   13   7 - 1 1 - 0 23 - 7 15 - 5 +4.7      +4.4 75 +0.3 159 67.9 224 +11.2 57 +11.7 1
104 Hawaii 28.1%   6 - 2 1 - 0 21 - 7 15 - 5 +4.4      -1.1 194 +5.5 42 75.8 41 +2.3 138 +11.2 2
120 UC Irvine 19.4%   5 - 4 2 - 0 18 - 11 14 - 6 +2.9      -4.0 276 +6.9 23 71.3 138 +0.6 161 +6.8 3
141 UC Santa Barbara 13.0%   6 - 2 2 - 0 19 - 10 13 - 7 +1.3      +4.5 74 -3.2 272 64.3 312 +3.8 119 +5.2 4
170 UC Davis 6.1%   4 - 3 0 - 1 16 - 13 11 - 9 -1.0      -2.3 232 +1.3 128 67.8 228 +2.3 140 -7.8 8
252 Cal Poly 0.9%   3 - 6 1 - 1 11 - 19 8 - 12 -5.1      -2.4 237 -2.7 259 86.2 2 -3.1 213 -6.7 7
258 UC Riverside 0.9%   4 - 5 1 - 1 12 - 18 8 - 12 -5.3      -1.7 216 -3.7 292 67.5 236 -3.6 225 +1.9 5
261 Cal St. Northridge 1.0%   3 - 5 1 - 1 12 - 18 8 - 12 -5.4      -3.2 254 -2.2 239 79.0 13 -4.0 232 -2.3 6
280 Long Beach St. 0.5%   1 - 8 0 - 2 9 - 21 7 - 13 -6.5      -2.9 247 -3.6 287 66.9 256 -11.5 321 -12.3 9
295 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.3%   3 - 6 0 - 2 10 - 20 6 - 14 -7.4      -3.6 260 -3.9 309 72.6 109 -5.0 245 -15.2 10
303 Cal St. Fullerton 0.2%   2 - 6 0 - 1 8 - 22 6 - 14 -8.0      -3.9 272 -4.1 318 85.4 3 -8.5 293 -23.3 11




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Dec 4 104 Hawaii 75 170 UC Davis 69   
Thu, Dec 4 295 Cal St. Bakersfield 66 261 Cal St. Northridge 87   
Thu, Dec 4 120 UC Irvine 73 258 UC Riverside 60   
Thu, Dec 4 252 Cal Poly 94 303 Cal St. Fullerton 91   
Thu, Dec 4 280 Long Beach St. 77 141 UC Santa Barbara 84   
Sat, Dec 6 252 Cal Poly 84 258 UC Riverside 88   
Sat, Dec 6 261 Cal St. Northridge 71 120 UC Irvine 85   
Sat, Dec 6 295 Cal St. Bakersfield 84 141 UC Santa Barbara 109   
Sat, Dec 6 280 Long Beach St. 74 103 UC San Diego 80   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 7 303 Cal St. Fullerton 74 104 Hawaii 89 92%   
Tue, Dec 9 280 Long Beach St. 66 182 San Jose St. 74 77%   
Wed, Dec 10 261 Cal St. Northridge 79 183 Fresno St. 80 53%   
Thu, Dec 11 295 Cal St. Bakersfield 72 155 North Dakota St. 76 66%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC San Diego 2.3 40.1 25.4 16.6 9.7 4.6 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Hawaii 2.4 37.2 25.4 17.6 10.5 5.1 2.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
UC Irvine 2.9 24.0 24.3 21.3 15.3 8.3 3.9 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 3.5 14.3 18.2 20.2 19.9 13.0 7.3 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.4 0.1
UC Davis 5.0 4.2 8.5 13.1 17.2 19.2 13.8 9.8 6.3 4.1 2.6 1.2
Cal Poly 7.2 0.4 1.4 3.1 6.5 11.1 15.8 16.5 16.2 13.5 10.1 5.5
UC Riverside 6.9 0.6 1.6 4.0 8.2 13.4 17.1 16.5 14.1 11.5 8.2 4.9
Cal St. Northridge 7.1 0.5 1.6 3.5 6.8 12.0 15.4 16.5 14.8 13.2 10.0 5.8
Long Beach St. 8.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.3 7.0 11.2 14.2 15.2 16.5 16.4 14.5
Cal St. Bakersfield 8.6 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.6 8.1 11.5 14.8 17.3 20.2 20.4
Cal St. Fullerton 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.6 6.6 9.7 13.3 16.7 20.9 26.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC San Diego 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.2 7.1 10.4 13.6 15.5 16.0 13.6 9.3 4.7 1.1
Hawaii 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.7 7.6 11.1 13.9 15.5 15.4 12.6 8.6 3.9 1.1
UC Irvine 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.8 4.9 7.3 11.0 13.6 15.4 14.9 12.6 8.8 4.7 1.7 0.3
UC Santa Barbara 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.0 5.5 7.9 11.2 13.8 14.6 13.5 11.5 8.5 4.8 2.3 0.8 0.1
UC Davis 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.6 5.9 8.8 11.1 12.6 13.2 12.8 10.6 8.1 5.2 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.0
Cal Poly 8 - 12 0.1 0.8 2.4 5.2 9.0 12.3 14.9 14.5 13.4 10.8 7.3 4.6 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside 8 - 12 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.1 7.5 10.3 13.4 14.7 13.8 12.0 9.0 6.2 3.7 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 8 - 12 0.2 0.9 2.5 5.4 8.5 12.1 13.9 14.2 13.5 10.7 7.9 4.9 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Long Beach St. 7 - 13 0.2 1.0 3.0 6.4 9.9 12.8 15.0 14.6 12.5 10.0 6.7 4.1 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 6 - 14 0.4 1.8 4.8 8.6 13.0 15.2 15.0 14.2 10.6 7.5 4.5 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 6 - 14 0.7 2.9 6.7 11.1 13.9 15.4 14.7 12.5 8.9 6.1 3.7 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC San Diego 40.1% 28.8 9.4 1.8 0.2 0.0
Hawaii 37.2% 26.1 9.2 1.8 0.2 0.0
UC Irvine 24.0% 15.5 6.7 1.6 0.2 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 14.3% 8.5 4.4 1.2 0.1 0.0
UC Davis 4.2% 2.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Cal Poly 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC San Diego 29.9% 29.8% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.4 14.0 9.5 2.2 0.2 70.1 0.1%
Hawaii 28.1% 28.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 9.1 11.2 4.8 0.9 0.1 71.9 0.0%
UC Irvine 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.5 8.2 4.6 1.3 0.1 80.6 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 13.0% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.4 3.5 1.0 0.1 87.1 0.0%
UC Davis 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.9 0.7 0.1 93.9 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 99.1 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 99.1 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 99.0 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC San Diego 29.9% 0.1% 29.8% 4.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 28.1% 0.0% 28.1% 4.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Irvine 19.4% 0.1% 19.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 13.0% 0.0% 12.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 6.1% 0.1% 6.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 1.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 99.6 0.0
2nd Round 12.1% 0.1 87.9 12.1
Sweet Sixteen 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0