Hawaii
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.4 #106
Expected Predictive Rating +3.1 #118
Pace 70.8 #131
Improvement -2.2 #284

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #225 C C+ D- B- A-
Defense #37 A B C B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #25 1.20 #124 +5.3 #26
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #309 0.73 #213 -2.6 #304
Three Pointers 40% #206 0.89 #323 -3.0 #287
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #181 -0.3 #180
Freethrows 19.4 #101 71% #219 13.8 #119
Second Chance 30.9% #178 1.12 #87 0.35 #119
Turnovers 18.6% #305
Total Offense -2.0 #225

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #13 1.00 #23 -0.8 #206
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #156 0.69 #77 +0.6 #153
Three Pointers 33% #353 0.83 #11 +7.2 #5
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #18 +7.0 #18
Freethrows 17.4 #172 67% #14 11.6 #105
Second Chance 27.8% #86 0.98 #89 0.27 #71
Turnovers 16.7% #169
Total Defense +6.4 #37

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.7% #30 1.0% #260
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.1% #225 -14.5% #9
Possession Length 17.0 #137 17.3 #176
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #214 0.17 #178
Improvement +0.9 #132 -3.2 #335

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.6% 33.2% 25.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.8 13.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.8% 97.9%
Conference Champion 57.6% 59.7% 32.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round32.6% 33.2% 25.5%
Second Round3.2% 3.3% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Home) - 92.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 35 - 46 - 7
Quad 416 - 122 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 68 @Oregon L 59 - 60 26% -3  0 - 1 +10 -13 F C F +23 A+ A- A+
 Sun, Nov 9 308 East Texas A&M W 100 - 74 92% +17  1 - 1 +15 +15 A+ A+ D+ -2 C B- C
 Wed, Nov 12 365 Mississippi Valley W 88 - 56 99% +18  2 - 1 +5 +10 B B C -4 B- B- F
 Fri, Nov 14 327 Manhattan W 86 - 56 94% +15  3 - 1 +17 +1 F B- B+ +15 B A+ B-
 Sat, Nov 15 233 Utah Tech W 68 - 62 86% +6  4 - 1 -1 -8 F A+ F +7 A A+ B-
 Thu, Nov 20 88 Arizona St. L 76 - 83 54% +2  4 - 2 -4 -3 C C+ F -0 B A+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 297 North Dakota W 92 - 55 91% +14  5 - 2 +26 +3 B+ D F +19 A+ A- A+
 Thu, Dec 4 181 UC Davis W 75 - 69 80% +6  6 - 2 1 - 0 +2 -2 B+ C F +3 A+ A D
 Sat, Dec 6 229 Cal St. Fullerton W 69 - 59 85% +9  7 - 2 2 - 0 +3 -9 F D+ D- +12 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 256 UTEP W 66 - 61 88% -2  8 - 2 -3 -4 F F A+ +2 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 1 293 @UC Riverside W 88 - 45 80% +21  9 - 2 3 - 0 +38 +22 A+ A+ F +20 A+ B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 109 @UC San Diego L 73 - 83 41% -7  9 - 3 3 - 1 -3 +6 C B+ C -9 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 10 123 UC Irvine W 67 - 66 69% +2  10 - 3 4 - 1 +0 -3 B- D- F +4 A+ D+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 281 @Cal Poly W 86 - 66 78% +8  11 - 3 5 - 1 +16 +3 B- C- F +12 B C- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 144 @UC Santa Barbara L 62 - 77 52% -12  11 - 4 5 - 2 -11 -5 D- C- F -8 D- D B-
 Fri, Jan 23 299 Cal St. Bakersfield W 79 - 64 92%
 Sun, Jan 25 207 Cal St. Northridge W 82 - 72 84%
 Thu, Jan 29 123 @UC Irvine L 67 - 68 46%
 Sat, Jan 31 250 @Long Beach St. W 73 - 67 72%
 Sun, Feb 8 109 UC San Diego W 73 - 69 63%
 Thu, Feb 12 299 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 76 - 67 81%
 Sat, Feb 14 207 @Cal St. Northridge W 79 - 75 65%
 Fri, Feb 20 281 Cal Poly W 85 - 71 90%
 Sun, Feb 22 144 UC Santa Barbara W 75 - 68 73%
 Thu, Feb 26 181 @UC Davis W 74 - 71 61%
 Sat, Feb 28 229 @Cal St. Fullerton W 78 - 73 69%
 Fri, Mar 6 293 UC Riverside W 78 - 63 91%
 Sun, Mar 8 250 Long Beach St. W 76 - 64 87%
Totals 21 - 7 15 - 5 +4 -2 C C+ D- +6 A B C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 6.6 15.8 18.5 12.1 3.9 57.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 5.6 10.3 6.2 1.4 0.1 24.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.2 2.2 0.1 11.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.3 0.6 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.8 6.6 12.2 19.1 22.1 19.8 12.2 3.9 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 3.9    3.9
17-3 99.5% 12.1    11.6 0.5
16-4 93.2% 18.5    14.8 3.6 0.1
15-5 71.5% 15.8    8.1 6.7 0.9 0.0
14-6 34.3% 6.6    1.6 3.2 1.5 0.2
13-7 6.5% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 57.6% 57.6 40.1 14.3 2.9 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 3.9% 51.7% 51.7% 11.6 0.0 0.9 1.0 0.1 1.9
17-3 12.2% 46.1% 46.1% 12.3 0.4 3.4 1.8 0.1 6.5
16-4 19.8% 41.2% 41.2% 12.7 0.1 3.0 4.5 0.6 0.0 11.7
15-5 22.1% 35.4% 35.4% 13.0 0.0 1.8 4.7 1.4 0.0 14.3
14-6 19.1% 27.1% 27.1% 13.2 0.6 3.1 1.5 0.0 13.9
13-7 12.2% 19.8% 19.8% 13.4 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.8
12-8 6.6% 15.5% 15.5% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 5.6
11-9 2.8% 9.5% 9.5% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.5
10-10 1.1% 9.1% 9.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
9-11 0.3% 5.9% 5.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 32.6% 32.6% 0.0% 12.8 67.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 11.6 1.2 45.4 49.9 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%