Arizona St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +8.1 69
Expected Predictive Rating +9.3 63
Pace 71.6 99
Improvement +0.4 170

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B #63 B- B+ B- A- C
Defense C+ #96 B- C- B+ C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 177 61% 96 +1.3 127
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 183 38% 165 -0.1 179
Three Pointers 41% 180 36% 98 +1.3 136
1st FG Attempt 1.07 99 +2.6 101
Second Chance 32.6% 114 1.21 19 0.39 44
Turnovers 15.4% 88
Freethrows 0.37 22 76% 69 0.28 18
Total Offense +5.4 63

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 278 55% 98 +2.9 83
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 127 39% 203 -0.6 238
Three Pointers 43% 114 33% 120 -0.2 195
1st FG Attempt 0.98 108 +2.1 109
Second Chance 31.5% 227 1.03 191 0.33 220
Turnovers 20.5% 25
Freethrows 0.30 168 74% 295 0.22 190
Total Defense +2.7 96

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.0 187 -0.4 101
Shot Type Accuracy +2.4 97 -1.7 108
Possession Length 16.2 71 17.4 208
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 11 0.19 237
Improvement -0.5 #217 +0.9 #131

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 5% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2% 5% 1%
Average Seed 10.7 10.6 10.9
.500 or above 28% 57% 19%
.500 or above in Conference 1% 3% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 1%
First Four1% 4% 1%
First Round1% 3% 0%
Second Round0% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Home) - 24.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 80 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 53 - 13
Quad 24 - 37 - 15
Quad 34 - 111 - 16
Quad 44 - 115 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 284 Southern Utah W 81 - 64 94% +11  99% 1 - 0 B- +7 C- -1 B+ D+ F B+ +8 A+ D- B
 Sun, Nov 9 203 Utah Tech W 81 - 66 90% +11  95% 2 - 0 B +9 C +1 D+ A- A B+ +8 B+ D A+
 Fri, Nov 14 13 Gonzaga L 65 - 77 23% -7  25% 2 - 1 C+ +4 D+ -2 C B+ A+ B+ +6 A B+ A+
 Mon, Nov 17 276 Georgia St. W 75 - 62 94% -1  40% 3 - 1 C+ +4 D -5 B- F B A- +8 C- B A+
 Thu, Nov 20 102 @Hawaii W 83 - 76 51% -2  15% 4 - 1 A- +15 A- +9 A- D A+ B +5 C C- B+
 Mon, Nov 24 30 Texas W 87 - 86 27% -2  15% 5 - 1 A- +16 B+ +9 A- A- C+ B+ +7 D+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 125 Washington St. W 100 - 94 72% -2  26% 6 - 1 B +8 A+ +21 A+ A+ C+ F -13 D- F D
 Wed, Nov 26 47 USC L 75 - 88 38% -4  19% 6 - 2 C- -2 A- +11 A D+ B- F -13 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 6 54 Oklahoma W 86 - 70 42% +16  95% 7 - 2 A+ +26 A- +9 B+ A+ C A+ +16 A+ B+ A-
 Tue, Dec 9 311 Northern Arizona W 73 - 48 96% +12  97% 8 - 2 B+ +13 D -6 C- D+ F+ A+ +20 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 13 44 Santa Clara W 82 - 79 35% -6  19% 9 - 2 A- +15 B+ +7 A+ A- C- B+ +8 A- B+ A
 Wed, Dec 17 34 @UCLA L 77 - 90 19% -9  0% 9 - 3 C+ +4 B+ +8 D- A A D+ -4 C- A- D
 Sun, Dec 21 178 Oregon St. L 75 - 78 87% +1  51% 9 - 4 D+ -7 C +1 C- D B- D- -9 F+ A C+
 Sat, Jan 3 77 Colorado L 89 - 95 64% -6  5% 9 - 5 0 - 1 C -2 C+ +2 C C D+ C- -3 C+ D- A
 Wed, Jan 7 21 @BYU L 76 - 104 13% -17  2% 9 - 6 0 - 2 D+ -7 C -0 D+ C+ D D+ -5 F B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 101 Kansas St. W 87 - 84 72% +0  41% 10 - 6 1 - 2 B- +5 B- +4 D- A+ D+ C+ +1 A+ D- C+
 Wed, Jan 14 2 @Arizona L 82 - 89 5% -3  24% 10 - 7 1 - 3 A +21 A+ +20 A+ C+ A+ C+ +1 B F+ C-
 Sun, Jan 18 5 @Houston L 73 - 103 6% -22  0% 10 - 8 1 - 4 C- -4 A- +9 C+ A+ C F -13 F F B
 Wed, Jan 21 56 West Virginia L 63 - 75 54% +1  57% 10 - 9 1 - 5 D+ -5 C- -2 B+ B- D+ D+ -4 F+ C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 24 45 Cincinnati W 82 - 68 48% +4  82% 11 - 9 2 - 5 A +23 A+ +16 A+ B+ A- B+ +7 B B+ A
 Tue, Jan 27 52 @Central Florida L 76 - 79 30% +2  61% 11 - 10 2 - 6 B +11 B- +5 B+ D B+ B +6 A C- D+
 Sat, Jan 31 2 Arizona L 74 - 87 11% -4  22% 11 - 11 2 - 7 B +9 B +6 B A- B+ B- +3 A- D A-
 Wed, Feb 4 110 @Utah W 71 - 63 55% +10  97% 12 - 11 3 - 7 A- +15 B- +4 F A+ A+ A +12 A+ F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 77 @Colorado L 70 - 78 41% -5  5% 12 - 12 3 - 8 C+ +2 C+ +2 F A+ B C -0 B- F B-
 Tue, Feb 10 59 Oklahoma St. W 85 - 76 58% +4  89% 13 - 12 4 - 8 A- +15 B +6 F A+ A- A- +8 C A+ A+
 Tue, Feb 17 16 Texas Tech L 75 - 82 25%
 Sat, Feb 21 42 @Baylor L 77 - 84 24%
 Tue, Feb 24 50 @TCU L 72 - 78 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 110 Utah W 83 - 76 75%
 Tue, Mar 3 12 Kansas L 72 - 80 23%
 Sat, Mar 7 8 @Iowa St. L 69 - 85 7%
Totals 15 - 16 6 - 12 +8 B +5 B- B+ B- C+ +3 B- C- B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B B- C B- B- 39% 20% 41% C B- C+ A- B+ B- B+ B A- C+ B- C C+ C+ 35% 22% 43% C+ B- C- C C- B+ C+ D+ C
1.16 61% 38% 36% +2 0 1.07 33% 1.2 .39 15% .37 76% .28 1.05 55% 39% 33% -2 0 0.98 32% 1.0 .33 20% .30 74% .27
Nov
4		 Southern Utah C- A- D- A B+ 44% 17% 39% B- B+ C D- D+ F A C A- B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 17% 37% D- A+ F C D- B A F B
1.11 67% 33% 43% +8 +1 1.20 31% 0.8 .26 19% .34 70% .24 0.88 56% 20% 14% -16 +1 0.73 36% 1.0 .36 22% .14 100% .14
Nov
9		 Utah Tech C C+ D C- C- 36% 26% 38% F+ D+ C- A+ A- A D B- D+ B+ C+ C B B+ 24% 22% 53% A B+ B F D A+ F A+ F
1.14 62% 33% 32% -1 -1 0.98 30% 1.5 .43 11% .25 75% .19 0.93 58% 36% 31% -3 -1 0.94 25% 1.2 .30 23% .40 59% .24
Nov
14		 Gonzaga D+ C- F C D+ 36% 11% 53% A+ C C A+ B+ A+ A F B- B+ B C+ A A+ 42% 11% 47% F A B- B B+ A+ F F+ F
0.93 53% 0% 32% -8 +1 0.89 23% 1.3 .30 14% .38 57% .22 1.10 58% 40% 29% -4 +1 0.98 34% 1.1 .38 20% .63 77% .48
Nov
17		 Georgia St. D A A+ F A- 31% 40% 29% F B- D F F B C C C A- B A F+ D 21% 34% 45% A- C- B- A- B A+ C D+ C
1.06 71% 55% 25% +7 -3 1.09 29% 0.4 .11 14% .29 72% .21 0.87 50% 25% 38% -3 -3 0.89 25% 0.9 .22 25% .30 81% .24
Nov
20		 Hawaii A- D+ B A+ A 42% 27% 31% D+ A- B F D A+ A+ D+ A+ B D- B A C+ 45% 6% 49% D- C B F+ C- B+ F D F
1.10 50% 43% 44% +2 -1 1.06 32% 0.7 .22 11% .55 65% .36 1.01 67% 33% 26% -2 +2 1.02 28% 1.3 .34 23% .44 77% .34
Nov
24		 Texas B+ B F A+ A- 39% 24% 37% C+ A- D+ A+ A- C+ A+ A- A+ B+ F A+ A C 57% 11% 33% F D+ D+ F F A+ F C+ F+
1.16 61% 9% 53% +5 0 1.11 21% 1.7 .34 15% .56 78% .44 1.15 81% 0% 27% +5 +3 1.17 41% 1.5 .63 25% .48 74% .36
Nov
25		 Washington St. A+ B A+ A+ A+ 44% 14% 42% A- A+ B A+ A+ C+ A+ B+ A+ F C- B- F F 29% 22% 49% A- D- C F F D F C- F
1.40 64% 57% 48% +14 +1 1.32 32% 1.6 .52 14% .47 79% .38 1.32 64% 36% 50% +13 -1 1.27 30% 1.4 .43 15% .48 76% .36
Nov
26		 USC A- A- F A- A 40% 12% 49% B+ A B- F D+ B- A+ A+ A+ F F F F F 28% 30% 43% A F F D+ F B- A A+ A+
1.13 65% 20% 38% +4 +1 1.12 31% 0.7 .21 17% .49 85% .42 1.33 85% 64% 45% +22 -2 1.43 50% 1.1 .54 18% .33 61% .20
Dec
6		 Oklahoma A- F F A+ B 40% 11% 49% A B+ C- A+ A+ C A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 42% 4% 55% F A+ C+ A- B+ A- F A+ D
1.18 42% 0% 52% +3 +1 1.11 28% 1.9 .53 16% .56 68% .38 0.96 41% 50% 24% -15 +2 0.77 33% 1.1 .37 18% .44 62% .27
Dec
9		 Northern Arizona D A+ F D+ C 38% 25% 38% D- C- C- D+ D+ F+ A+ D- A A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 20% 49% C A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A- F C
1.12 78% 25% 33% +4 -1 1.08 32% 1.0 .32 20% .42 68% .29 0.74 67% 20% 21% -11 -1 0.80 11% 0.5 .06 20% .19 90% .17
Dec
13		 Santa Clara B+ B+ F A+ A+ 49% 9% 43% A- A+ D+ A+ A- C- C C+ C B+ C A+ C+ A- 35% 13% 52% C A- B B B+ A D- F F
1.12 65% 0% 50% +11 +2 1.28 27% 1.6 .42 22% .33 74% .25 1.08 61% 29% 33% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.0 .33 21% .29 82% .24
Dec
17		 UCLA B+ A+ B+ F F+ 35% 21% 44% C D- C+ A+ A A A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ F C- 31% 24% 44% D+ C- C+ A+ A- D C- D- D+
1.09 72% 45% 9% -10 0 0.81 31% 1.3 .40 16% .43 96% .42 1.27 41% 23% 58% +7 -1 1.15 31% 0.9 .29 11% .35 82% .29
Dec
21		 Oregon St. C D+ A+ F C- 45% 20% 35% C C- F+ C D B- A A+ A+ D- D+ F F+ F 34% 20% 46% C+ F+ F A+ A C+ C- F D-
1.12 52% 60% 22% -4 +1 0.94 24% 1.0 .24 13% .42 88% .36 1.17 59% 50% 39% +6 0 1.14 40% 0.5 .20 18% .38 86% .33
Jan
3		 Colorado C+ A+ F+ F C 35% 23% 42% C C B- D C D+ A+ A- A+ C- F+ B- C- C 36% 34% 30% A+ C+ F C+ D- A F F F
1.11 75% 31% 25% -1 -1 0.98 30% 1.0 .30 17% .41 78% .32 1.18 71% 38% 36% +5 -2 1.09 41% 0.9 .38 19% .58 84% .49
Jan
7		 BYU C A+ F F D+ 27% 37% 36% D+ D+ A+ F C+ D B B- B D+ F F F F 30% 19% 51% C- F C A B+ A+ F+ D- F
0.98 81% 18% 24% -6 -3 0.83 41% 0.8 .33 19% .29 72% .21 1.34 88% 50% 48% +22 0 1.45 38% 1.0 .38 21% .41 80% .32
Jan
10		 Kansas St. B- B- A+ F D- 38% 25% 37% C- D- A+ B+ A+ D+ A+ B A+ C+ A+ A+ D A+ 38% 17% 45% C+ A+ C- F+ D- C+ F+ C+ D-
1.14 60% 54% 11% -8 -1 0.85 50% 1.3 .67 20% .52 75% .39 1.10 41% 20% 38% -7 0 0.90 35% 1.3 .43 17% .33 71% .24
Jan
14		 Arizona A+ A- A A+ A+ 23% 33% 44% D+ A+ B- C- C+ A+ F+ D F+ C+ C D+ B- B+ 50% 32% 18% C+ B B- F F+ C- D- F F
1.16 62% 47% 44% +11 -3 1.18 26% 0.8 .21 13% .18 64% .11 1.26 64% 44% 33% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.3 .48 14% .43 81% .35
Jan
18		 Houston A- D- B D+ C 38% 18% 44% B C+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ F F D F F 29% 34% 36% C+ F F F+ F B B+ F B-
1.03 47% 38% 30% -7 0 0.89 42% 1.3 .55 24% .45 83% .37 1.46 82% 45% 48% +17 -2 1.31 47% 1.2 .56 14% .20 92% .18
Jan
21		 West Virginia C- B- A+ F+ A- 38% 31% 31% D- B+ C+ B B- D+ A+ F B- D+ D- D+ F F 24% 29% 47% A+ F+ A+ F C+ A- A F B
0.96 59% 50% 29% +2 -1 1.02 26% 1.1 .29 20% .34 56% .19 1.15 67% 43% 43% +10 -2 1.18 21% 1.7 .36 20% .25 77% .19
Jan
24		 Cincinnati A+ C+ F A+ A+ 26% 22% 52% C- A+ C+ A+ B+ A- A B A B+ C+ F A+ B- 33% 37% 29% A+ B D A+ B+ A C C+ C
1.18 54% 27% 46% +6 -1 1.12 24% 1.4 .33 16% .36 71% .26 0.98 59% 53% 20% 0 -3 0.96 36% 0.7 .25 22% .27 67% .18
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Central Florida B- B- F+ A+ A- 30% 26% 44% D B+ F+ B+ D B+ B D+ B- B A+ F A+ A+ 43% 23% 34% C A C+ D C- D+ D+ C+ C-
1.09 60% 31% 45% +6 -1 1.12 16% 1.2 .19 14% .33 70% .23 1.13 43% 67% 22% -6 0 0.91 36% 1.3 .47 13% .31 74% .23
Jan
31		 Arizona B F A+ C+ B 33% 30% 37% B- B B A A- B+ A F B- B- C+ B- B- A 52% 31% 17% C A- D C- D A- D- C D-
1.00 32% 59% 33% -3 -2 0.93 28% 1.1 .30 16% .32 60% .19 1.18 63% 38% 33% +2 0 1.06 44% 1.0 .44 19% .43 73% .32
Feb
4		 Utah B- F A+ F F 37% 25% 37% D F B A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ F A- A+ 39% 14% 47% C A+ F+ F F A+ B+ A+ A
1.11 37% 54% 21% -11 -1 0.78 34% 1.5 .51 9% .43 88% .38 0.98 32% 57% 30% -10 +1 0.84 37% 1.2 .45 22% .26 62% .16
Feb
7		 Colorado C+ F F F F 46% 16% 38% A- F D+ A+ A+ B B- A+ A C D- F A+ C+ 31% 29% 39% A B- F F F B- A B A
1.07 43% 25% 26% -13 +1 0.78 23% 2.3 .51 14% .32 89% .28 1.19 69% 67% 20% +4 -2 1.06 42% 1.3 .55 15% .25 71% .18
Feb
10		 Oklahoma St. B F F+ F F 37% 25% 37% D F A+ A- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A- D+ B+ F D+ 33% 29% 38% A+ C B A+ A+ A+ F C F
1.14 42% 31% 26% -12 -1 0.76 44% 1.3 .56 15% .55 80% .44 1.02 63% 29% 44% +5 -1 1.08 28% 0.4 .11 23% .47 74% .35



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 0.4 1.5 8th
9th 1.5 2.9 0.2 4.6 9th
10th 1.0 7.7 1.8 0.0 10.5 10th
11th 0.4 9.0 7.1 0.2 16.6 11th
12th 0.0 3.9 15.4 1.7 21.0 12th
13th 0.5 14.8 8.1 0.2 23.6 13th
14th 6.1 13.2 1.3 20.5 14th
15th 1.3 0.1 1.4 15th
16th 0.1 0.1 16th
Total 8.0 32.3 34.8 18.1 6.0 0.8 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.8% 61.3% 1.3% 60.0% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 60.8%
8-10 6.0% 16.8% 16.8% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.0 5.0 16.8%
7-11 18.1% 1.3% 1.3% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 17.9 1.3%
6-12 34.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 34.7 0.1%
5-13 32.3% 32.3
4-14 8.0% 8.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 10.7 98.2 1.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.8%