Cincinnati
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +11.7 45
Expected Predictive Rating +7.6 75
Pace 69.9 142
Improvement +5.8 14

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #135 C+ C+ C+ D C-
Defense A #10 B+ B B B+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 274 62% 85 -0.5 190
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 182 39% 154 +0.1 177
Three Pointers 44% 116 34% 177 +1.8 111
1st FG Attempt 1.05 128 +1.4 129
Second Chance 32.6% 117 1.02 180 0.33 123
Turnovers 16.1% 130
Freethrows 0.28 271 68% 316 0.19 303
Total Offense +1.1 135

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 301 47% 7 +6.1 21
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 86 40% 270 -1.7 309
Three Pointers 42% 138 30% 46 +1.7 108
1st FG Attempt 0.90 28 +6.2 28
Second Chance 23.0% 7 1.08 267 0.25 43
Turnovers 19.8% 39
Freethrows 0.26 49 68% 22 0.18 31
Total Defense +10.6 10

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.2 216 -0.6 72
Shot Type Accuracy +1.6 118 -5.4 25
Possession Length 16.2 69 18.4 325
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 45 0.08 6
Improvement +5.5 #6 +0.3 #167

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7% 8% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7% 8% 2%
Average Seed 10.6 10.6 10.7
.500 or above 61% 67% 29%
.500 or above in Conference 23% 26% 4%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four5% 5% 2%
First Round5% 6% 1%
Second Round2% 2% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Utah (Home) - 85.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 12
Quad 24 - 37 - 15
Quad 33 - 19 - 15
Quad 47 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 263 Western Carolina W 94 - 63 96% +20  99% 1 - 0 A +22 C +0 A C D- A+ +18 B+ A- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 276 Georgia St. W 74 - 64 96% +6  84% 2 - 0 C +1 F -10 D- C- F A +10 C D+ A
 Tue, Nov 11 97 Dayton W 74 - 62 81% +9  99% 3 - 0 B+ +14 F+ -8 A F F A+ +21 A+ A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 16 289 Mount St. Mary's W 72 - 55 97% +0  35% 4 - 0 B- +7 F+ -10 D D- C A+ +15 B+ B+ A-
 Fri, Nov 21 11 Louisville L 64 - 74 23% -1  44% 4 - 1 B +10 D -5 B F+ C- A+ +15 A+ A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 315 NJIT W 94 - 67 98% +16  98% 5 - 1 A- +15 B +7 A D+ B B +5 B- F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 231 Eastern Michigan L 56 - 64 95% -9  0% 5 - 2 F+ -15 F -17 F D D C+ +2 B+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 1 214 Tarleton St. W 76 - 58 94% +8  86% 6 - 2 B+ +12 C- -1 B+ A- F A +13 C+ C+ A+
 Fri, Dec 5 83 @Xavier L 74 - 79 58% -4  12% 6 - 3 C+ +5 C -0 F A A+ B +5 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 36 Georgia L 65 - 84 40% -1  50% 6 - 4 C- -5 F -10 D- C- B- B+ +7 A- D- A
 Wed, Dec 17 316 Alabama St. W 88 - 51 98% +21  99% 7 - 4 A+ +24 B+ +8 B- D- A+ A+ +16 A A+ D
 Sun, Dec 21 38 Clemson L 65 - 68 41% -13  0% 7 - 5 B +11 C+ +2 C+ A- C+ A- +9 C A+ B+
 Mon, Dec 29 187 Lipscomb W 89 - 62 93% +16  83% 8 - 5 A +22 B+ +8 C+ A+ A+ A+ +13 A D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 3 5 Houston L 60 - 67 22% +1  46% 8 - 6 0 - 1 B+ +13 C- -1 A- D+ C A +13 A C C+
 Tue, Jan 6 56 @West Virginia L 60 - 62 45% -3  13% 8 - 7 0 - 2 B +11 C- -0 C C A+ A +11 F A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 11 52 @Central Florida L 72 - 73 43% -1  24% 8 - 8 0 - 3 B+ +13 B- +4 D A+ A+ A- +9 D- B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 77 Colorado W 77 - 68 75% +13  99% 9 - 8 1 - 3 B+ +13 C- -2 B F B A+ +15 A- C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 8 Iowa St. W 79 - 70 28% +7  84% 10 - 8 2 - 3 A+ +27 A+ +18 A B+ A+ A- +9 A+ C+ B+
 Wed, Jan 21 2 @Arizona L 51 - 77 8% -7  5% 10 - 9 2 - 4 C+ +2 D -6 F+ B- D B +6 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 24 69 @Arizona St. L 68 - 82 52% -4  14% 10 - 10 2 - 5 C- -3 D+ -3 C- D C- C -0 D+ B C+
 Wed, Jan 28 42 Baylor W 67 - 57 58% +9  99% 11 - 10 3 - 5 A +20 D -5 D+ C- A A+ +25 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 5 @Houston L 54 - 76 10% -13  5% 11 - 11 3 - 6 C+ +4 C +0 A- C+ F C -1 C B+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 56 West Virginia L 59 - 65 67% +6  74% 11 - 12 3 - 7 C +1 D -5 F A+ D+ B +5 A+ F B
 Sun, Feb 8 52 Central Florida W 92 - 72 66% +11  98% 12 - 12 4 - 7 A+ +28 A+ +18 A+ A+ B- A +10 A- A+ D-
 Wed, Feb 11 101 @Kansas St. W 91 - 62 64% +21  99% 13 - 12 5 - 7 A+ +37 A+ +18 A+ A+ C A+ +19 A+ C A+
 Sun, Feb 15 110 Utah W 78 - 67 85%
 Sat, Feb 21 12 @Kansas L 64 - 74 16%
 Tue, Feb 24 16 @Texas Tech L 66 - 76 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 59 Oklahoma St. W 79 - 74 70%
 Tue, Mar 3 21 BYU L 75 - 78 39%
 Sat, Mar 7 50 @TCU L 67 - 69 41%
Totals 16 - 15 8 - 10 +12 C+ +1 C+ C+ C+ A +11 B+ B B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- C C C+ 35% 20% 44% C- C+ C+ C C+ C+ D+ D D A A D+ B+ A- 34% 23% 42% B- B+ A D+ B B B A- B+
1.10 62% 39% 34% +2 0 1.05 33% 1.0 .33 16% .28 68% .19 0.93 47% 40% 30% -5 -1 0.90 23% 1.1 .25 20% .26 68% .19
Nov
3		 Western Carolina C A+ A+ B- A 35% 19% 46% C A D A C D- A+ F A- A+ A A C- B 30% 26% 43% A B+ C+ A A- A+ B A+ A-
1.18 78% 60% 38% +14 0 1.29 23% 1.3 .30 19% .46 67% .31 0.79 44% 29% 35% -6 -1 0.87 33% 0.7 .23 28% .24 57% .14
Nov
7		 Georgia St. F A+ C F F+ 35% 15% 50% C D- C+ D+ C- F A+ F+ A A B D B+ D+ 20% 44% 36% A+ C B F D+ A C F D
0.98 72% 38% 19% -6 0 0.90 34% 0.9 .32 21% .44 65% .29 0.85 50% 41% 28% -4 -4 0.86 24% 1.4 .32 23% .31 89% .27
Nov
11		 Dayton F+ D+ F A+ B+ 45% 10% 45% A+ A F F F F A+ F A+ A+ B+ C- A+ A+ 53% 5% 42% F A+ A+ C A+ C- C+ C+ B-
0.91 53% 25% 47% +5 +2 1.17 18% 0.7 .12 30% .65 62% .40 0.76 53% 33% 4% -21 +3 0.65 14% 1.2 .16 16% .40 74% .29
Nov
16		 Mount St. Mary's F+ C+ C F D 37% 19% 44% C+ D B F D- C A+ F B A+ A+ B+ C B+ 38% 14% 48% C B+ A+ D B+ A- A+ A+ A+
0.99 58% 40% 26% -5 0 0.92 34% 0.6 .20 14% .48 60% .29 0.75 42% 29% 33% -8 +1 0.88 18% 1.1 .21 26% .19 30% .06
Nov
21		 Louisville D B- F+ B- B 37% 24% 39% B B C+ F F+ C- C F D+ A+ D- A+ B+ A+ 30% 13% 57% A- A+ A- A+ A+ B+ F F F
0.90 58% 25% 35% -2 0 0.96 27% 0.5 .12 18% .27 63% .17 1.04 71% 17% 31% -1 0 1.00 29% 0.4 .11 18% .48 86% .41
Nov
24		 NJIT B A B B+ A 34% 17% 49% C- A D+ D+ D+ B D D- D- B A+ D F C+ 20% 28% 52% A- B- F+ F F A+ B D+ B-
1.24 70% 40% 38% +7 0 1.17 31% 1.0 .31 12% .31 67% .21 0.88 0% 43% 38% -7 -2 0.84 33% 1.2 .38 26% .27 73% .20
Nov
26		 Eastern Michigan F D+ D- F F 42% 6% 52% A- F F+ C D D D B D+ C+ A+ F B- B+ 26% 24% 50% B- B+ B- F F A+ F F F
0.85 52% 33% 23% -11 +2 0.84 22% 1.0 .22 18% .26 79% .21 0.98 20% 67% 32% -5 -1 0.89 25% 1.9 .46 26% .45 86% .39
Dec
1		 Tarleton St. C- D+ F A+ A- 17% 12% 71% D+ B+ A+ C A- F F+ F F A A+ D- F B- 41% 20% 39% D C+ A+ F C+ A+ B+ A+ A+
1.07 57% 20% 47% +11 0 1.24 44% 1.1 .47 30% .30 60% .18 0.82 33% 44% 41% -5 0 0.93 17% 1.8 .31 27% .27 57% .15
Dec
5		 Xavier C F F+ F F 32% 23% 46% C- F B A+ A A+ B+ F D+ B D+ F A+ C 28% 30% 43% B C+ A+ A A+ F F+ A+ C
1.00 44% 31% 27% -11 -1 0.79 32% 1.2 .38 12% .34 50% .17 1.07 65% 67% 23% +3 -2 1.05 12% 0.8 .10 5% .33 57% .19
Dec
13		 Georgia F C+ F F D- 35% 23% 42% D+ D- C- D+ C- B- A F B- B+ F B- A+ A- 37% 25% 38% A A- A+ F D- A F C- F
0.85 56% 25% 23% -11 -1 0.79 30% 0.9 .26 18% .34 57% .19 1.10 74% 38% 20% -2 -1 0.96 28% 1.7 .47 20% .42 77% .32
Dec
17		 Alabama St. B+ A+ B- F B- 39% 9% 52% B- B- C+ F D- A+ D+ F+ D- A+ A+ D+ A+ A 33% 33% 33% A- A D A+ A+ D A A+ A
1.26 90% 40% 25% +6 +1 1.17 36% 0.8 .31 10% .32 70% .22 0.73 39% 39% 22% -12 -2 0.74 35% 0.3 .10 16% .20 58% .12
Dec
21		 Clemson C+ F C- A+ C 38% 18% 44% B C+ B+ A A- C+ C- C- C- A- A C F C 45% 15% 40% C C A+ F A+ B+ A C+ A
0.97 32% 33% 41% -6 0 0.90 29% 1.2 .34 18% .27 73% .20 1.02 48% 43% 47% +4 +1 1.13 7% 2.5 .18 18% .26 71% .18
Dec
29		 Lipscomb B+ B- F B C 40% 15% 45% B+ C+ B A+ A+ A+ F D- F A+ A F A A+ 38% 4% 58% D A A F D+ B+ C+ A+ A-
1.23 63% 22% 37% +2 +1 1.07 36% 1.4 .49 11% .14 67% .09 0.86 47% 50% 28% -9 +2 0.88 16% 1.8 .30 19% .22 54% .12
Jan
3		 Houston C- C- B+ C+ B+ 45% 12% 43% A A- D+ C- D+ C C A- B- A B B+ B+ A+ 30% 30% 40% C- A B+ D- C C+ A C A
0.94 53% 40% 33% -3 +2 1.00 24% 0.9 .21 23% .33 75% .25 1.05 60% 33% 30% -3 -2 0.92 34% 1.2 .40 13% .16 78% .13
Jan
6		 West Virginia C- A F C C 23% 21% 57% D C C C- C A+ F+ F F A A D+ F F 31% 17% 52% B F A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A
0.94 67% 9% 33% -4 -1 0.91 24% 1.0 .24 13% .16 44% .07 0.97 46% 43% 50% +10 0 1.21 21% 0.7 .14 24% .27 54% .14
Jan
11		 Central Florida B- A B F D+ 35% 35% 30% F+ D B A+ A+ A+ F F F A- F D F F 38% 33% 29% A D- A+ F B+ A+ A+ D+ A+
1.07 70% 45% 12% -3 -2 0.91 28% 1.5 .42 10% .13 63% .08 1.09 72% 44% 43% +11 -2 1.21 19% 2.0 .38 21% .17 78% .13
Jan
14		 Colorado C- A+ A- F B 42% 31% 27% C- B C- F F B A+ D A+ A+ B- D+ B B+ 39% 29% 33% A- A- A- F+ C+ A+ B+ B- A-
1.06 70% 47% 23% +3 -1 1.06 25% 0.5 .13 14% .56 69% .38 0.93 58% 43% 31% 0 -1 1.00 27% 1.1 .30 23% .27 73% .20
Jan
17		 Iowa St. A+ B- A+ C+ A 24% 27% 49% C- A A+ D- B+ A+ D+ B+ C- A- A+ A- F+ A+ 44% 16% 40% D+ A+ A F C+ B+ F B+ F
1.19 62% 53% 33% +5 -2 1.07 42% 0.9 .36 12% .21 75% .15 1.06 42% 29% 41% -4 +1 0.95 31% 1.3 .40 18% .50 63% .31
Jan
21		 Arizona D F C F F+ 26% 36% 38% D+ F+ B C- B- D B- A+ A+ B C A+ A+ A+ 45% 33% 22% B- A+ D C- D F F B- F
0.78 33% 35% 22% -14 -3 0.68 28% 0.8 .23 22% .27 93% .26 1.19 64% 19% 18% -9 -1 0.82 45% 1.0 .45 9% .47 71% .34
Jan
24		 Arizona St. D+ C+ A+ F C+ 33% 37% 29% F C- B F D C- D+ F D C B A F D 26% 22% 52% B+ D+ A F+ B C+ C B B-
0.98 59% 53% 20% 0 -3 0.96 36% 0.7 .25 22% .27 67% .18 1.18 54% 27% 46% +6 -1 1.12 24% 1.4 .33 16% .36 71% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Baylor D F A D- D+ 16% 33% 51% C+ D+ F+ A+ C- A D+ B+ C- A+ A B A+ A+ 47% 16% 37% F A+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+
0.98 44% 50% 29% -2 -3 0.91 21% 1.3 .26 12% .23 79% .18 0.83 50% 38% 21% -11 +1 0.82 27% 0.9 .24 15% .15 56% .09
Jan
31		 Houston C D D A+ A+ 10% 44% 46% F A- A+ F C+ F C F+ D+ C A- F D D+ 18% 39% 43% A C A C+ B+ F F+ D- F
0.91 50% 28% 47% +4 -5 1.00 40% 0.7 .27 32% .32 62% .20 1.28 56% 53% 38% +8 -4 1.10 32% 1.0 .32 7% .33 83% .27
Feb
5		 West Virginia D F D F F 29% 31% 40% F+ F B+ A+ A+ D+ D- B+ D B B F A+ A+ 37% 20% 44% B- A+ B- F F B F A+ F
0.92 43% 27% 26% -12 -2 0.73 31% 1.6 .51 20% .18 78% .14 1.01 53% 63% 17% -8 0 0.85 29% 1.8 .53 19% .52 56% .29
Feb
8		 Central Florida A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 29% 37% 33% F A+ C+ A+ A+ B- B+ C- B A B- F+ A B+ 32% 30% 38% A A- A+ A+ A+ D- B D- B-
1.31 73% 37% 59% +17 -3 1.29 26% 1.6 .41 16% .36 71% .25 1.03 56% 47% 29% -1 -2 0.96 27% 0.6 .17 11% .24 80% .19
Feb
11		 Kansas St. A+ C- F+ A+ A+ 34% 20% 46% C A+ A- A+ A+ C C- A+ B- A+ B- C A+ A+ 31% 27% 41% A+ A+ B- D C A+ A B+ A
1.29 53% 30% 52% +9 0 1.20 42% 1.5 .65 18% .28 81% .23 0.88 56% 36% 24% -7 -1 0.84 31% 1.2 .37 23% .17 67% .11



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 5th
6th 0.7 1.9 0.1 2.7 6th
7th 0.3 5.1 2.1 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 6.4 9.0 0.5 16.0 8th
9th 0.0 3.9 17.5 3.1 0.0 24.6 9th
10th 1.1 17.5 8.6 0.2 27.3 10th
11th 0.1 4.5 7.9 0.3 12.8 11th
12th 0.4 4.6 1.0 0.0 5.9 12th
13th 0.8 1.5 0.1 2.4 13th
14th 0.4 0.1 0.5 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 1.7 11.8 30.5 33.1 18.1 4.6 0.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.4% 80.0% 80.0% 9.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 80.0%
10-8 4.6% 54.1% 0.9% 53.2% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 0.0 2.1 53.7%
9-9 18.1% 20.2% 0.3% 19.9% 10.8 0.1 0.1 0.4 3.0 0.1 14.4 20.0%
8-10 33.1% 2.0% 0.4% 1.6% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 32.4 1.6%
7-11 30.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.1 30.4 0.1%
6-12 11.8% 11.8
5-13 1.7% 1.7
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.1% 0.3% 6.9% 10.6 92.9 6.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%