Cincinnati
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.7#26
Expected Predictive Rating+16.2#21
Pace66.7#240
Improvement-0.8#239

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#54
First Shot+1.8#121
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#22
Layup/Dunks+9.3#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#347
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#143
Freethrows-5.0#362
Improvement-2.6#340

Defense
Total Defense+8.6#6
First Shot+9.1#4
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#227
Layups/Dunks+2.1#96
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#234
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#18
Freethrows+2.0#54
Improvement+1.8#54
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.0% 2.0% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 6.3% 6.4% 0.9%
Top 4 Seed 23.5% 23.6% 6.9%
Top 6 Seed 45.5% 45.7% 23.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.6% 84.8% 62.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 83.8% 84.0% 61.8%
Average Seed 6.3 6.3 7.5
.500 or above 98.1% 98.2% 90.6%
.500 or above in Conference 75.2% 75.4% 57.2%
Conference Champion 5.8% 5.9% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 1.0% 1.6%
First Four4.6% 4.6% 8.5%
First Round82.4% 82.6% 58.8%
Second Round56.3% 56.4% 36.8%
Sweet Sixteen25.5% 25.6% 14.6%
Elite Eight10.7% 10.8% 6.2%
Final Four4.5% 4.5% 2.5%
Championship Game1.8% 1.8% 0.0%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Home) - 99.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 8
Quad 27 - 213 - 10
Quad 33 - 016 - 10
Quad 46 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 109-54 99.5%    1 - 0 +34.7 +16.1 +15.1
  Nov 08, 2024 281   Morehead St. W 83-56 97%     2 - 0 +17.4 +15.9 +4.8
  Nov 15, 2024 241   Nicholls St. W 86-49 97%     3 - 0 +29.5 +16.1 +15.9
  Nov 19, 2024 214   @ Northern Kentucky W 76-60 89%     4 - 0 +16.5 +11.5 +6.3
  Nov 23, 2024 111   @ Georgia Tech W 81-58 75%     5 - 0 +29.6 +12.8 +16.9
  Nov 27, 2024 297   Alabama St. W 77-59 98%     6 - 0 +7.8 -2.5 +10.2
  Dec 03, 2024 44   @ Villanova L 60-68 50%     6 - 1 +5.7 +2.6 +1.5
  Dec 08, 2024 255   Howard W 84-67 97%     7 - 1 +8.9 +6.1 +3.0
  Dec 14, 2024 47   Xavier W 68-65 73%     8 - 1 +10.5 -1.3 +11.8
  Dec 20, 2024 46   Dayton W 66-59 62%     9 - 1 +17.6 +3.1 +15.1
  Dec 22, 2024 308   Grambling St. W 79-54 99%    
  Dec 30, 2024 68   @ Kansas St. W 70-68 59%    
  Jan 04, 2025 17   Arizona W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 07, 2025 12   @ Baylor L 68-73 31%    
  Jan 11, 2025 10   Kansas L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 15, 2025 75   @ Colorado W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 62   Arizona St. W 74-66 76%    
  Jan 21, 2025 24   Texas Tech W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 40   @ BYU L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 28, 2025 66   @ Utah W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 02, 2025 39   West Virginia W 70-65 68%    
  Feb 05, 2025 84   @ Central Florida W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 40   BYU W 75-70 69%    
  Feb 11, 2025 66   Utah W 76-68 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 5   @ Iowa St. L 68-77 21%    
  Feb 19, 2025 39   @ West Virginia L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 22, 2025 88   TCU W 72-62 82%    
  Feb 25, 2025 12   Baylor W 71-70 52%    
  Mar 01, 2025 6   @ Houston L 60-68 23%    
  Mar 05, 2025 68   Kansas St. W 73-65 77%    
  Mar 08, 2025 97   @ Oklahoma St. W 75-70 68%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.9 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 5.1 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 5.0 3.9 0.6 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.7 4.3 1.1 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.2 2.2 4.1 1.5 0.1 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 3.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 7.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.2 0.7 0.0 4.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.4 6.6 9.4 11.7 13.3 13.4 12.1 10.1 7.2 4.3 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 99.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 91.2% 0.7    0.6 0.1 0.0
17-3 75.7% 1.7    1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 43.9% 1.9    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0
15-5 15.1% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 2.8 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.2% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 2.1 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.3% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 2.7 0.5 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.2% 100.0% 12.6% 87.4% 3.5 0.3 1.0 2.3 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.1% 100.0% 10.2% 89.8% 4.4 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.1 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 12.1% 99.9% 6.5% 93.5% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 3.2 3.4 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 99.9%
12-8 13.4% 99.4% 4.4% 95.0% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.2 3.6 3.5 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.4%
11-9 13.3% 97.4% 2.6% 94.8% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.2 3.2 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.4 97.3%
10-10 11.7% 92.4% 1.6% 90.8% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.7 2.9 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.9 92.3%
9-11 9.4% 76.5% 1.0% 75.5% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.6 1.7 0.1 2.2 76.3%
8-12 6.6% 42.9% 0.7% 42.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 0.2 3.8 42.5%
7-13 4.4% 14.2% 0.1% 14.1% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 3.8 14.1%
6-14 2.5% 2.8% 0.3% 2.5% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4 2.5%
5-15 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 1.2
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 84.6% 5.2% 79.4% 6.3 2.0 4.3 7.5 9.6 10.4 11.6 10.7 9.3 7.9 6.4 4.5 0.4 15.4 83.8%