Kansas
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.4#10
Expected Predictive Rating+18.0#13
Pace71.5#102
Improvement-2.6#321

Offense
Total Offense+8.5#16
First Shot+9.0#8
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#220
Layup/Dunks+10.9#2
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#136
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#148
Freethrows-3.3#342
Improvement-1.9#312

Defense
Total Defense+9.0#5
First Shot+5.5#33
After Offensive Rebounds+3.5#7
Layups/Dunks+9.0#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#304
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#261
Freethrows+0.0#185
Improvement-0.7#244
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.3% 3.4% 1.5%
#1 Seed 16.8% 17.1% 7.3%
Top 2 Seed 37.7% 38.3% 18.1%
Top 4 Seed 71.6% 72.2% 49.9%
Top 6 Seed 88.5% 88.9% 73.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.3% 98.4% 93.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.9% 98.1% 92.9%
Average Seed 3.5 3.5 4.7
.500 or above 99.5% 99.6% 96.4%
.500 or above in Conference 93.5% 93.7% 86.0%
Conference Champion 20.2% 20.5% 11.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four1.2% 1.1% 3.9%
First Round97.8% 97.9% 92.1%
Second Round85.9% 86.3% 72.5%
Sweet Sixteen55.3% 55.7% 39.8%
Elite Eight30.2% 30.5% 19.9%
Final Four15.4% 15.6% 9.0%
Championship Game7.4% 7.5% 4.3%
National Champion3.4% 3.5% 2.1%

Next Game: Brown (Home) - 97.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 39 - 8
Quad 27 - 116 - 9
Quad 35 - 021 - 9
Quad 43 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 254   Howard W 87-57 98%     1 - 0 +21.8 +6.1 +15.2
  Nov 08, 2024 18   North Carolina W 92-89 71%     2 - 0 +14.7 +15.0 -0.6
  Nov 12, 2024 14   Michigan St. W 77-69 58%     3 - 0 +23.3 +3.8 +18.6
  Nov 16, 2024 166   Oakland W 78-57 96%     4 - 0 +17.5 +13.3 +6.5
  Nov 19, 2024 142   UNC Wilmington W 84-66 95%     5 - 0 +16.0 +9.3 +6.7
  Nov 26, 2024 2   Duke W 75-72 37%     6 - 0 +23.8 +15.3 +8.6
  Nov 30, 2024 126   Furman W 86-51 94%     7 - 0 +34.2 +18.7 +17.6
  Dec 04, 2024 36   @ Creighton L 63-76 59%     7 - 1 +2.1 -2.0 +4.0
  Dec 08, 2024 51   @ Missouri L 67-76 66%     7 - 2 +4.2 -3.7 +8.3
  Dec 14, 2024 79   North Carolina St. W 75-60 89%     8 - 2 +19.1 +13.9 +7.1
  Dec 22, 2024 159   Brown W 81-61 97%    
  Dec 31, 2024 42   West Virginia W 76-67 80%    
  Jan 05, 2025 82   @ Central Florida W 77-69 77%    
  Jan 08, 2025 61   Arizona St. W 80-69 85%    
  Jan 11, 2025 27   @ Cincinnati W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 15, 2025 5   @ Iowa St. L 74-79 32%    
  Jan 18, 2025 64   Kansas St. W 79-67 86%    
  Jan 22, 2025 86   @ TCU W 75-67 77%    
  Jan 25, 2025 6   Houston W 67-66 55%    
  Jan 28, 2025 82   Central Florida W 80-66 89%    
  Feb 01, 2025 12   @ Baylor L 74-76 44%    
  Feb 03, 2025 5   Iowa St. W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 64   @ Kansas St. W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 11, 2025 73   Colorado W 79-66 88%    
  Feb 15, 2025 66   @ Utah W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 18, 2025 44   @ BYU W 78-75 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 85   Oklahoma St. W 84-70 90%    
  Feb 24, 2025 73   @ Colorado W 76-69 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 25   Texas Tech W 77-70 72%    
  Mar 03, 2025 6   @ Houston L 64-69 34%    
  Mar 08, 2025 21   Arizona W 81-75 71%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.5 6.1 3.7 1.5 0.3 20.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.6 6.8 5.1 1.5 0.2 17.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.7 6.7 4.3 0.9 0.0 16.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.9 3.6 0.7 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.6 3.2 0.5 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.4 0.7 0.0 5.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 1.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.3 5.4 8.3 11.5 14.1 15.0 14.4 11.6 7.7 3.9 1.5 0.3 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.5    1.4 0.0
18-2 96.0% 3.7    3.3 0.4 0.0
17-3 79.3% 6.1    4.1 1.8 0.2 0.0
16-4 47.8% 5.5    2.4 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 18.3% 2.6    0.6 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 3.4% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.2% 20.2 12.1 6.0 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 45.1% 54.9% 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.5% 100.0% 41.8% 58.2% 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.9% 100.0% 35.3% 64.7% 1.3 2.8 1.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 7.7% 100.0% 29.9% 70.1% 1.5 4.4 2.9 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-4 11.6% 100.0% 25.5% 74.5% 1.8 4.2 5.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.4% 100.0% 21.0% 79.0% 2.3 2.7 5.8 4.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 15.0% 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 3.0 1.0 3.8 5.9 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.1% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 3.7 0.2 1.4 4.5 4.7 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 11.5% 100.0% 7.7% 92.3% 4.6 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.5 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 8.3% 99.9% 5.3% 94.6% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 2.3 2.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-10 5.4% 99.4% 3.1% 96.4% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
9-11 3.3% 94.6% 2.3% 92.3% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.2 94.4%
8-12 1.7% 79.0% 1.4% 77.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.4 78.7%
7-13 0.9% 32.1% 0.7% 31.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.6 31.6%
6-14 0.4% 8.1% 1.1% 7.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 7.1%
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.3% 15.7% 82.6% 3.5 16.8 20.9 19.3 14.6 10.3 6.6 3.8 2.1 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.1 1.7 97.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.2 7.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 96.2 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 89.5 10.5