Kansas
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.5#6
Expected Predictive Rating+17.9#17
Pace71.5#100
Improvement+0.6#155

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#25
First Shot+8.5#14
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#230
Layup/Dunks+9.9#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#173
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#154
Freethrows-2.1#303
Improvement-1.1#254

Defense
Total Defense+11.7#2
First Shot+7.9#13
After Offensive Rebounds+3.8#3
Layups/Dunks+8.0#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#282
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#210
Freethrows+1.1#109
Improvement+1.7#90
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.6% 3.1% 1.0%
#1 Seed 17.8% 20.6% 8.5%
Top 2 Seed 43.7% 48.7% 27.2%
Top 4 Seed 83.5% 87.1% 71.3%
Top 6 Seed 97.0% 98.2% 92.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.5%
Average Seed 3.0 2.8 3.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.6% 97.4%
Conference Champion 13.7% 16.3% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.4%
Second Round93.9% 95.2% 89.6%
Sweet Sixteen66.0% 68.5% 57.9%
Elite Eight38.6% 40.5% 31.9%
Final Four21.4% 22.7% 17.2%
Championship Game10.9% 11.6% 8.4%
National Champion5.3% 5.9% 3.2%

Next Game: TCU (Away) - 76.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 66 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 210 - 7
Quad 25 - 115 - 9
Quad 36 - 021 - 9
Quad 44 - 025 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 281   Howard W 87-57 99%     1 - 0 +20.3 +3.3 +16.5
  Nov 08, 2024 26   North Carolina W 92-89 79%     2 - 0 +14.0 +16.1 -2.3
  Nov 12, 2024 12   Michigan St. W 77-69 59%     3 - 0 +25.1 +4.3 +19.9
  Nov 16, 2024 178   Oakland W 78-57 97%     4 - 0 +17.4 +11.8 +8.0
  Nov 19, 2024 141   UNC Wilmington W 84-66 96%     5 - 0 +16.8 +9.2 +7.6
  Nov 26, 2024 1   Duke W 75-72 34%     6 - 0 +26.8 +15.6 +11.3
  Nov 30, 2024 151   Furman W 86-51 97%     7 - 0 +33.2 +17.4 +17.9
  Dec 04, 2024 33   @ Creighton L 63-76 65%     7 - 1 +2.7 -2.0 +4.6
  Dec 08, 2024 29   @ Missouri L 67-76 63%     7 - 2 +7.1 -2.9 +10.3
  Dec 14, 2024 93   North Carolina St. W 75-60 93%     8 - 2 +18.3 +12.7 +7.5
  Dec 22, 2024 212   Brown W 87-53 98%     9 - 2 +28.5 +11.1 +17.2
  Dec 31, 2024 32   West Virginia L 61-62 81%     9 - 3 0 - 1 +9.2 +4.7 +4.3
  Jan 05, 2025 71   @ Central Florida W 99-48 80%     10 - 3 1 - 1 +61.5 +21.5 +35.3
  Jan 08, 2025 64   Arizona St. W 74-55 89%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +24.8 +8.7 +17.0
  Jan 11, 2025 39   @ Cincinnati W 54-40 68%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +28.6 +0.3 +30.4
  Jan 15, 2025 4   @ Iowa St. L 57-74 36%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +6.2 -4.9 +11.5
  Jan 18, 2025 89   Kansas St. W 84-74 92%     13 - 4 4 - 2 +13.6 +20.7 -6.1
  Jan 22, 2025 62   @ TCU W 73-65 77%    
  Jan 25, 2025 3   Houston W 66-65 54%    
  Jan 28, 2025 71   Central Florida W 82-68 92%    
  Feb 01, 2025 22   @ Baylor W 73-71 54%    
  Feb 03, 2025 4   Iowa St. W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 89   @ Kansas St. W 77-67 83%    
  Feb 11, 2025 94   Colorado W 79-63 93%    
  Feb 15, 2025 69   @ Utah W 78-69 78%    
  Feb 18, 2025 44   @ BYU W 76-71 69%    
  Feb 22, 2025 101   Oklahoma St. W 83-65 95%    
  Feb 24, 2025 94   @ Colorado W 77-66 83%    
  Mar 01, 2025 17   Texas Tech W 75-69 71%    
  Mar 03, 2025 3   @ Houston L 63-68 32%    
  Mar 08, 2025 13   Arizona W 79-74 70%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.3 5.5 1.4 13.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 2.3 7.8 7.6 1.6 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 2.2 9.6 9.6 1.6 23.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 7.4 7.7 1.4 18.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.4 5.5 1.6 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.8 1.3 0.1 7.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.7 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 5.1 11.1 16.5 21.3 20.2 14.4 7.1 1.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 1.4    1.2 0.2
17-3 77.7% 5.5    3.2 2.1 0.2
16-4 36.6% 5.3    1.4 2.4 1.3 0.2
15-5 7.2% 1.5    0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1
14-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.7% 13.7 5.9 5.2 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 1.4% 100.0% 38.4% 61.6% 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 7.1% 100.0% 31.1% 68.9% 1.4 4.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 14.4% 100.0% 25.8% 74.2% 1.7 5.9 6.9 1.5 0.1 100.0%
15-5 20.2% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 2.2 4.2 8.7 5.7 1.6 0.1 100.0%
14-6 21.3% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 2.9 1.6 5.7 8.4 4.8 0.7 0.1 100.0%
13-7 16.5% 100.0% 11.8% 88.2% 3.6 0.4 1.9 5.4 5.4 2.6 0.6 0.1 100.0%
12-8 11.1% 100.0% 9.1% 90.9% 4.5 0.4 1.8 3.5 3.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-9 5.1% 100.0% 5.5% 94.5% 5.3 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-10 2.2% 99.1% 5.9% 93.2% 6.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
9-11 0.7% 98.5% 1.5% 97.0% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 98.5%
8-12 0.2% 81.0% 4.8% 76.2% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 80.0%
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.9% 17.5% 82.4% 3.0 17.8 25.9 23.3 16.4 8.9 4.6 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 92.5 7.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 1.2 86.1 11.1 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 77.4 22.6