Kansas
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.3 #19
Expected Predictive Rating +17.1 #21
Pace 69.0 #175
Improvement +1.0 #133

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #37 B+ B+ A- B- C
Defense #11 A+ A+ D A+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #140 1.38 #10 +5.3 #31
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #159 0.70 #261 -0.3 #186
Three Pointers 39% #232 1.10 #67 +0.5 #164
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #44 +5.4 #44
Freethrows 18.2 #159 76% #53 13.9 #113
Second Chance 32.5% #132 1.23 #19 0.40 #46
Turnovers 13.4% #24
Total Offense +7.9 #37

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #318 0.97 #15 +6.4 #21
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #141 0.60 #12 +1.3 #94
Three Pointers 46% #57 0.78 #1 +3.1 #63
1st FG Attempt 0.80 #2 +10.8 #2
Freethrows 12.9 #11 67% #16 8.6 #8
Second Chance 25.9% #37 0.81 #7 0.21 #7
Turnovers 14.4% #301
Total Defense +9.4 #11

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #192 -1.0% #88
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.6% #33 -20.3% #2
Possession Length 16.3 #87 18.4 #322
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #79 0.11 #23
Improvement +1.8 #89 -0.8 #241

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.0% 1.2% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 4.0% 4.8% 1.5%
Top 4 Seed 30.6% 34.8% 17.9%
Top 6 Seed 74.3% 79.6% 58.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.0% 99.5% 97.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.0% 99.5% 97.4%
Average Seed 5.4 5.2 6.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 93.3% 96.5% 83.8%
Conference Champion 2.1% 2.6% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.3% 0.7% 3.1%
First Round98.5% 99.2% 96.2%
Second Round78.7% 81.6% 70.1%
Sweet Sixteen38.6% 41.4% 30.3%
Elite Eight15.7% 17.2% 11.4%
Final Four6.4% 7.1% 4.4%
Championship Game2.5% 2.8% 1.7%
National Champion0.9% 1.0% 0.5%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Away) - 75.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 85 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 28 - 10
Quad 28 - 115 - 11
Quad 34 - 019 - 11
Quad 43 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 255 Green Bay W 94 - 51 98% +23  1 - 0 +35 +22 A+ D A+ +17 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Nov 7 31 @North Carolina L 74 - 87 50% -2  1 - 1 +4 +7 A+ A+ F -3 F A+ B
 Tue, Nov 11 186 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 77 - 46 97% +19  2 - 1 +26 +4 A+ C F +21 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 214 Princeton W 76 - 57 98% +6  3 - 1 +13 -0 C D F +13 A+ B- C+
 Tue, Nov 18 3 Duke L 66 - 78 32% -3  3 - 2 +10 +8 C+ A+ A+ +1 A+ B F
 Mon, Nov 24 84 Notre Dame W 71 - 61 83% +6  4 - 2 +17 +7 B A- C+ +11 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 67 Syracuse W 71 - 60 81% +7  5 - 2 +19 +8 B A+ F +12 A+ B F
 Wed, Nov 26 22 Tennessee W 81 - 76 53% -3  6 - 2 +22 +18 B B A+ +4 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 7 Connecticut L 56 - 61 49% +2  6 - 3 +12 -0 C- D- A +12 A+ C A+
 Sun, Dec 7 50 Missouri W 80 - 60 82% +8  7 - 3 +28 +14 C+ A+ A+ +15 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 26 @North Carolina St. W 77 - 76 OT 46% +1  8 - 3 +19 +7 C+ D A+ +12 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 157 Towson W 73 - 49 96% +14  9 - 3 +21 +9 C A+ B +15 A+ A C
 Mon, Dec 22 137 Davidson W 90 - 61 95% +20  10 - 3 +28 +13 A+ A+ F +13 A+ A- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 53 @Central Florida L 75 - 81 64% -2  10 - 4 0 - 1 +8 +8 D+ A C -1 A+ A- F
 Tue, Jan 6 45 TCU W 104 - 100 OT 81% -4  11 - 4 1 - 1 +12 +18 A+ A- A+ -6 D D A-
 Sat, Jan 10 52 @West Virginia L 75 - 86 64% -1  11 - 5 1 - 2 +3 +14 B- B A+ -12 D- D+ D+
 Tue, Jan 13 8 Iowa St. W 84 - 63 49% +15  12 - 5 2 - 2 +38 +27 A+ C+ A+ +13 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 16 41 Baylor W 80 - 62 78% +11  13 - 5 3 - 2 +27 +14 A+ F A+ +15 A+ A+ B+
 Tue, Jan 20 78 @Colorado W 75 - 69 74% +4  14 - 5 4 - 2 +17 +9 B- A+ D+ +8 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 24 85 @Kansas St. W 82 - 75 75%
 Sat, Jan 31 12 BYU W 78 - 76 56%
 Mon, Feb 2 15 @Texas Tech L 73 - 77 36%
 Sat, Feb 7 104 Utah W 85 - 69 93%
 Mon, Feb 9 2 Arizona L 76 - 79 39%
 Sat, Feb 14 8 @Iowa St. L 71 - 77 28%
 Wed, Feb 18 61 @Oklahoma St. W 83 - 78 68%
 Sat, Feb 21 49 Cincinnati W 74 - 65 81%
 Mon, Feb 23 4 Houston L 68 - 69 46%
 Sat, Feb 28 2 @Arizona L 73 - 82 20%
 Tue, Mar 3 88 @Arizona St. W 82 - 74 77%
 Sat, Mar 7 85 Kansas St. W 85 - 72 89%
Totals 21 - 10 11 - 7 +17 +8 B+ B+ A- +9 A+ A+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.2 2.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 3.1 0.6 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.5 6.5 1.8 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 8.9 4.1 0.1 15.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.5 9.3 7.7 0.5 20.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 9.2 8.7 1.6 0.0 21.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 5.3 6.0 1.5 0.0 13.6 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 3.1 0.7 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.8 11.4 18.6 22.1 20.8 12.8 5.8 1.5 0.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 97.8% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 58.9% 0.9    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 14.7% 0.9    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.5% 100.0% 21.4% 78.6% 2.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.8% 100.0% 14.1% 85.9% 3.1 0.3 1.2 2.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.8% 100.0% 10.5% 89.5% 3.9 0.2 0.8 3.7 4.8 2.9 0.5 0.0 100.0%
12-6 20.8% 100.0% 6.7% 93.3% 4.6 0.1 0.4 2.3 6.3 7.8 3.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-7 22.1% 100.0% 4.7% 95.3% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.3 7.3 7.7 2.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
10-8 18.6% 99.9% 2.9% 97.0% 6.2 0.1 0.8 3.5 6.7 5.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 11.4% 99.7% 2.2% 97.5% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.2 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7%
8-10 4.8% 93.6% 0.9% 92.7% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.3 93.6%
7-11 1.5% 73.6% 0.7% 72.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.4 73.4%
6-12 0.3% 42.0% 1.4% 40.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 41.2%
5-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.0% 5.8% 93.2% 5.4 1.0 99.0%