Kansas
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.6#6
Expected Predictive Rating+18.1#16
Pace71.5#100
Improvement+3.1#52

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#22
First Shot+8.6#16
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#230
Layup/Dunks+10.0#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#172
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#152
Freethrows-2.1#302
Improvement-1.0#240

Defense
Total Defense+12.6#2
First Shot+8.7#8
After Offensive Rebounds+3.8#3
Layups/Dunks+8.0#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#267
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#183
Freethrows+1.3#96
Improvement+4.0#13
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.1% 6.8% 2.5%
#1 Seed 21.7% 31.0% 16.0%
Top 2 Seed 49.5% 62.9% 41.1%
Top 4 Seed 87.3% 93.5% 83.4%
Top 6 Seed 97.7% 99.4% 96.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 2.8 2.3 3.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.8% 99.2%
Conference Champion 19.4% 33.4% 10.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round94.9% 96.9% 93.8%
Sweet Sixteen69.8% 75.4% 66.3%
Elite Eight42.2% 48.5% 38.3%
Final Four23.8% 28.4% 21.0%
Championship Game13.4% 16.1% 11.7%
National Champion6.9% 8.6% 5.8%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Away) - 38.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 56 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 211 - 7
Quad 26 - 117 - 8
Quad 35 - 022 - 8
Quad 43 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 282   Howard W 87-57 99%     1 - 0 +20.4 +3.3 +16.6
  Nov 08, 2024 26   North Carolina W 92-89 81%     2 - 0 +14.2 +15.5 -1.6
  Nov 12, 2024 12   Michigan St. W 77-69 62%     3 - 0 +25.6 +5.6 +19.1
  Nov 16, 2024 179   Oakland W 78-57 98%     4 - 0 +17.2 +11.2 +8.4
  Nov 19, 2024 144   UNC Wilmington W 84-66 97%     5 - 0 +16.3 +9.5 +6.8
  Nov 26, 2024 1   Duke W 75-72 39%     6 - 0 +26.5 +15.6 +11.0
  Nov 30, 2024 138   Furman W 86-51 97%     7 - 0 +33.4 +17.6 +17.9
  Dec 04, 2024 41   @ Creighton L 63-76 71%     7 - 1 +1.8 -2.4 +4.2
  Dec 08, 2024 44   @ Missouri L 67-76 72%     7 - 2 +5.4 -3.3 +9.1
  Dec 14, 2024 82   North Carolina St. W 75-60 93%     8 - 2 +18.9 +13.6 +7.3
  Dec 22, 2024 198   Brown W 87-53 98%     9 - 2 +29.4 +11.6 +17.5
  Dec 31, 2024 32   West Virginia L 61-62 85%     9 - 3 0 - 1 +8.5 +4.1 +4.2
  Jan 05, 2025 85   @ Central Florida W 99-48 85%     10 - 3 1 - 1 +60.6 +22.0 +33.8
  Jan 08, 2025 58   Arizona St. W 74-55 90%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +25.3 +9.6 +16.6
  Jan 11, 2025 42   @ Cincinnati W 54-40 71%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +28.8 -0.1 +30.9
  Jan 15, 2025 4   @ Iowa St. L 72-75 38%    
  Jan 18, 2025 93   Kansas St. W 80-62 96%    
  Jan 22, 2025 65   @ TCU W 73-64 81%    
  Jan 25, 2025 3   Houston W 66-64 56%    
  Jan 28, 2025 85   Central Florida W 82-65 95%    
  Feb 01, 2025 16   @ Baylor W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 03, 2025 4   Iowa St. W 75-72 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 93   @ Kansas St. W 77-65 87%    
  Feb 11, 2025 84   Colorado W 79-62 94%    
  Feb 15, 2025 75   @ Utah W 79-69 83%    
  Feb 18, 2025 45   @ BYU W 77-71 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 101   Oklahoma St. W 82-63 96%    
  Feb 24, 2025 84   @ Colorado W 76-65 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 20   Texas Tech W 77-69 75%    
  Mar 03, 2025 3   @ Houston L 63-67 34%    
  Mar 08, 2025 13   Arizona W 80-74 71%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.6 8.0 4.9 1.2 19.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 7.0 10.3 3.5 0.2 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 6.5 11.3 3.8 0.2 23.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 5.8 7.1 2.8 0.2 17.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.8 1.6 0.1 10.4 5th
6th 0.3 1.5 2.0 0.9 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.5 6.9 12.7 16.3 21.9 18.8 11.6 5.1 1.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2
18-2 96.3% 4.9    4.1 0.8 0.0
17-3 68.7% 8.0    3.8 3.4 0.8 0.0
16-4 24.4% 4.6    1.0 2.3 1.1 0.2
15-5 2.9% 0.6    0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.4% 19.4 10.2 6.7 2.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 1.2% 100.0% 47.8% 52.2% 1.2 1.0 0.2 100.0%
18-2 5.1% 100.0% 36.3% 63.7% 1.3 3.8 1.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 11.6% 100.0% 32.0% 68.0% 1.5 6.5 4.5 0.6 0.0 100.0%
16-4 18.8% 100.0% 27.7% 72.3% 1.9 6.0 9.0 3.4 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-5 21.9% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 2.4 3.4 8.2 7.6 2.5 0.2 100.0%
14-6 16.3% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 3.1 0.9 3.3 6.8 4.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 12.7% 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 3.8 0.2 1.0 3.6 5.0 2.2 0.6 0.0 100.0%
12-8 6.9% 100.0% 9.2% 90.8% 4.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 3.5% 100.0% 7.6% 92.4% 5.5 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-10 1.4% 100.0% 5.0% 95.0% 6.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 100.0%
9-11 0.4% 90.1% 1.3% 88.8% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 90.0%
8-12 0.1% 98.5% 98.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.5%
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 20.9% 79.0% 2.8 21.7 27.7 23.1 14.7 7.3 3.1 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.2 84.7 15.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.3 72.2 27.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 87.9 12.1