Kansas
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.7#7
Expected Predictive Rating+22.3#5
Pace71.7#113
Improvement-1.1#290

Offense
Total Offense+9.9#9
First Shot+10.2#6
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#197
Layup/Dunks+12.8#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#149
Freethrows-1.7#265
Improvement-0.6#257

Defense
Total Defense+8.9#6
First Shot+7.1#18
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#63
Layups/Dunks+7.7#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#299
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#189
Freethrows+1.5#112
Improvement-0.6#252
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 8.8% 12.4% 6.3%
#1 Seed 31.0% 40.2% 24.3%
Top 2 Seed 56.2% 67.1% 48.2%
Top 4 Seed 83.9% 90.6% 79.1%
Top 6 Seed 93.4% 97.2% 90.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.6% 99.6% 97.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.2% 99.5% 97.3%
Average Seed 2.7 2.3 3.1
.500 or above 99.2% 99.8% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 95.0% 96.9% 93.6%
Conference Champion 28.9% 34.0% 25.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.8% 0.3% 1.2%
First Round98.2% 99.5% 97.3%
Second Round90.3% 93.8% 87.8%
Sweet Sixteen63.1% 68.4% 59.2%
Elite Eight38.1% 43.3% 34.3%
Final Four21.2% 25.4% 18.1%
Championship Game11.2% 13.8% 9.3%
National Champion5.7% 7.3% 4.6%

Next Game: Duke (Neutral) - 42.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 211 - 7
Quad 27 - 118 - 8
Quad 34 - 022 - 8
Quad 43 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 230   Howard W 87-57 98%     1 - 0 +23.6 +8.0 +15.1
  Nov 08, 2024 9   North Carolina W 92-89 65%     2 - 0 +17.9 +15.4 +2.1
  Nov 12, 2024 36   Michigan St. W 77-69 75%     3 - 0 +19.9 +3.0 +16.0
  Nov 16, 2024 215   Oakland W 78-57 98%     4 - 0 +15.4 +11.6 +6.2
  Nov 19, 2024 152   UNC Wilmington W 84-66 97%     5 - 0 +15.4 +8.3 +7.1
  Nov 26, 2024 2   Duke L 70-72 42%    
  Nov 30, 2024 132   Furman W 86-66 97%    
  Dec 04, 2024 34   @ Creighton W 77-73 63%    
  Dec 08, 2024 51   @ Missouri W 78-72 72%    
  Dec 14, 2024 49   North Carolina St. W 82-70 86%    
  Dec 22, 2024 220   Brown W 86-61 99%    
  Dec 31, 2024 54   West Virginia W 81-68 87%    
  Jan 05, 2025 84   @ Central Florida W 79-70 78%    
  Jan 08, 2025 68   Arizona St. W 82-68 89%    
  Jan 11, 2025 18   @ Cincinnati W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 15, 2025 11   @ Iowa St. L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 18, 2025 58   Kansas St. W 79-66 87%    
  Jan 22, 2025 60   @ TCU W 78-71 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 4   Houston W 69-67 56%    
  Jan 28, 2025 84   Central Florida W 82-67 90%    
  Feb 01, 2025 13   @ Baylor W 75-74 50%    
  Feb 03, 2025 11   Iowa St. W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 08, 2025 58   @ Kansas St. W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 11, 2025 66   Colorado W 80-66 88%    
  Feb 15, 2025 50   @ Utah W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 18, 2025 35   @ BYU W 79-75 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 88   Oklahoma St. W 84-69 91%    
  Feb 24, 2025 66   @ Colorado W 77-69 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 23   Texas Tech W 78-70 77%    
  Mar 03, 2025 4   @ Houston L 66-70 36%    
  Mar 08, 2025 17   Arizona W 83-76 74%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.8 6.2 8.4 6.7 3.3 0.9 28.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.4 7.1 6.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.7 4.0 1.1 0.1 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.4 3.3 0.6 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.5 2.3 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.3 2.4 4.3 6.4 9.2 11.3 13.5 14.4 13.6 11.0 7.1 3.3 0.9 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 99.6% 3.3    3.2 0.1
18-2 94.5% 6.7    5.7 1.0 0.0
17-3 76.1% 8.4    5.7 2.4 0.2 0.0
16-4 45.8% 6.2    2.7 2.6 0.8 0.1
15-5 19.4% 2.8    0.7 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 3.8% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.9% 28.9 19.0 7.5 1.9 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 100.0% 57.8% 42.2% 1.1 0.8 0.1 100.0%
19-1 3.3% 100.0% 48.7% 51.3% 1.1 2.9 0.4 0.0 100.0%
18-2 7.1% 100.0% 42.3% 57.7% 1.2 5.7 1.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 11.0% 100.0% 35.0% 65.0% 1.3 7.5 3.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 13.6% 100.0% 29.3% 70.7% 1.6 7.0 5.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.4% 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 2.0 4.3 6.4 3.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.5% 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 2.5 1.9 4.8 4.8 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.3% 100.0% 11.8% 88.2% 3.2 0.6 2.4 4.2 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 9.2% 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 3.8 0.1 0.9 2.8 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 6.4% 99.8% 4.8% 95.0% 4.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-10 4.3% 99.4% 3.7% 95.7% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
9-11 2.4% 92.9% 3.2% 89.6% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 92.6%
8-12 1.3% 79.3% 2.0% 77.3% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.3 78.9%
7-13 0.6% 41.0% 0.6% 40.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 40.7%
6-14 0.4% 12.8% 1.0% 11.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 11.9%
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.6% 21.2% 77.4% 2.7 31.0 25.2 17.4 10.4 6.0 3.5 1.8 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.4 98.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 94.8 5.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.6 7.4