Duke
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.2#6
Expected Predictive Rating+5.7#92
Pace70.9#131
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.3#11
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.9#6
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.0% 5.1% 0.9%
#1 Seed 21.1% 21.4% 5.7%
Top 2 Seed 40.2% 40.6% 16.7%
Top 4 Seed 66.1% 66.6% 35.4%
Top 6 Seed 81.0% 81.5% 56.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.3% 95.5% 81.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.8% 93.2% 76.0%
Average Seed 3.7 3.6 5.2
.500 or above 98.8% 98.9% 92.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 98.0% 92.3%
Conference Champion 46.7% 47.0% 27.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four1.2% 1.2% 2.5%
First Round94.7% 95.0% 80.6%
Second Round82.3% 82.7% 62.5%
Sweet Sixteen55.7% 56.1% 35.2%
Elite Eight33.6% 33.9% 17.6%
Final Four19.0% 19.2% 8.5%
Championship Game10.5% 10.6% 4.4%
National Champion5.5% 5.6% 1.6%

Next Game: Wofford (Home) - 98.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 6
Quad 27 - 115 - 8
Quad 36 - 021 - 8
Quad 45 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 243   Maine W 96-62 98%     1 - 0 +26.9 +17.4 +8.0
  Nov 08, 2024 313   Army W 100-58 99%     2 - 0 +30.8 +23.1 +7.2
  Nov 12, 2024 12   Kentucky L 72-77 58%     2 - 1 +11.2 +1.4 +10.1
  Nov 16, 2024 178   Wofford W 82-60 98%    
  Nov 22, 2024 8   @ Arizona L 78-80 41%    
  Nov 26, 2024 5   Kansas L 76-77 47%    
  Nov 29, 2024 152   Seattle W 81-61 97%    
  Dec 04, 2024 3   Auburn W 78-76 57%    
  Dec 08, 2024 49   @ Louisville W 78-73 69%    
  Dec 10, 2024 327   Incarnate Word W 94-63 99.7%   
  Dec 17, 2024 95   George Mason W 80-64 92%    
  Dec 21, 2024 96   @ Georgia Tech W 84-74 81%    
  Dec 31, 2024 82   Virginia Tech W 80-66 89%    
  Jan 04, 2025 63   @ SMU W 82-75 72%    
  Jan 07, 2025 35   Pittsburgh W 79-69 81%    
  Jan 11, 2025 81   Notre Dame W 78-64 89%    
  Jan 14, 2025 33   Miami (FL) W 81-71 80%    
  Jan 18, 2025 144   @ Boston College W 78-64 89%    
  Jan 25, 2025 62   @ Wake Forest W 79-72 71%    
  Jan 27, 2025 59   North Carolina St. W 80-68 86%    
  Feb 01, 2025 10   North Carolina W 81-76 66%    
  Feb 05, 2025 89   @ Syracuse W 82-73 79%    
  Feb 08, 2025 44   @ Clemson W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 12, 2025 119   California W 84-66 94%    
  Feb 15, 2025 70   Stanford W 78-65 87%    
  Feb 17, 2025 78   @ Virginia W 66-58 74%    
  Feb 22, 2025 20   Illinois W 79-74 67%    
  Feb 25, 2025 33   @ Miami (FL) W 78-74 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 80   Florida St. W 82-68 88%    
  Mar 03, 2025 62   Wake Forest W 82-69 86%    
  Mar 08, 2025 10   @ North Carolina L 78-79 46%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.6 7.5 12.2 12.3 8.4 3.2 46.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.5 6.8 3.3 0.6 0.0 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.3 3.7 1.2 0.1 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.8 2.5 0.6 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 3.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.2 5.3 7.6 10.7 13.5 15.5 15.6 12.9 8.4 3.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.2    3.2
19-1 99.9% 8.4    8.2 0.2
18-2 95.1% 12.3    10.6 1.6 0.0
17-3 78.1% 12.2    8.4 3.4 0.3 0.0
16-4 48.2% 7.5    3.6 2.9 0.8 0.1
15-5 19.2% 2.6    0.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.9% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 46.7% 46.7 34.7 9.5 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.2% 100.0% 66.5% 33.5% 1.2 2.6 0.6 0.0 100.0%
19-1 8.4% 100.0% 56.3% 43.7% 1.4 5.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 12.9% 100.0% 49.6% 50.4% 1.7 6.5 4.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 15.6% 100.0% 42.6% 57.4% 2.3 4.2 5.9 3.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 15.5% 100.0% 35.5% 64.5% 3.1 1.7 3.9 4.5 3.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 13.5% 99.9% 29.1% 70.8% 4.2 0.3 1.4 3.2 3.4 2.5 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 10.7% 98.8% 22.5% 76.4% 5.3 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.9 2.4 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.5%
13-7 7.6% 96.2% 15.4% 80.9% 6.5 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 95.6%
12-8 5.3% 87.6% 11.1% 76.5% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.7 86.1%
11-9 3.2% 72.0% 7.1% 64.9% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 69.9%
10-10 2.0% 48.9% 4.2% 44.7% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.0 46.6%
9-11 1.1% 28.4% 3.7% 24.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 25.7%
8-12 0.6% 7.4% 1.7% 5.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 5.8%
7-13 0.3% 2.5% 2.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.5%
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 95.3% 33.9% 61.4% 3.7 21.1 19.0 14.5 11.4 8.6 6.4 4.9 3.5 2.5 1.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.8 92.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.1 87.7 12.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 97.0 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 91.3 8.7