Duke
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.8#2
Expected Predictive Rating+19.4#10
Pace66.4#254
Improvement-0.1#190

Offense
Total Offense+9.8#10
First Shot+7.6#23
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#67
Layup/Dunks+2.9#85
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#293
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#32
Freethrows+1.2#102
Improvement+0.8#115

Defense
Total Defense+11.0#2
First Shot+7.9#9
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#16
Layups/Dunks+10.4#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#257
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#164
Freethrows-2.4#323
Improvement-0.8#257
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 8.6% 8.9% 4.1%
#1 Seed 40.0% 40.8% 25.5%
Top 2 Seed 69.3% 70.3% 50.7%
Top 4 Seed 91.5% 92.1% 80.9%
Top 6 Seed 97.6% 97.8% 92.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 99.9% 99.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 99.8% 99.1%
Average Seed 2.2 2.2 3.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 78.6% 79.1% 69.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.9% 99.9% 99.4%
Second Round95.9% 96.1% 91.9%
Sweet Sixteen73.2% 73.7% 64.7%
Elite Eight49.7% 50.3% 39.8%
Final Four30.9% 31.4% 21.7%
Championship Game18.5% 18.9% 11.6%
National Champion10.8% 11.0% 6.3%

Next Game: George Mason (Home) - 94.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 34 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 4
Quad 28 - 116 - 5
Quad 38 - 024 - 5
Quad 45 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 213   Maine W 96-62 98%     1 - 0 +28.5 +18.1 +8.7
  Nov 08, 2024 305   Army W 100-58 99%     2 - 0 +31.2 +19.9 +10.8
  Nov 12, 2024 11   Kentucky L 72-77 63%     2 - 1 +12.4 +0.7 +11.9
  Nov 16, 2024 163   Wofford W 86-35 98%     3 - 1 +47.6 +16.8 +35.3
  Nov 22, 2024 21   @ Arizona W 69-55 63%     4 - 1 +31.3 +7.2 +24.7
  Nov 26, 2024 10   Kansas L 72-75 63%     4 - 2 +14.4 +10.2 +4.2
  Nov 29, 2024 140   Seattle W 70-48 97%     5 - 2 +20.1 -1.8 +22.6
  Dec 04, 2024 1   Auburn W 84-78 54%     6 - 2 +25.7 +26.7 -0.3
  Dec 08, 2024 50   @ Louisville W 76-65 76%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +24.2 +12.3 +12.4
  Dec 10, 2024 307   Incarnate Word W 72-46 99%     8 - 2 +15.2 +0.4 +18.2
  Dec 17, 2024 83   George Mason W 75-58 95%    
  Dec 21, 2024 110   @ Georgia Tech W 79-65 90%    
  Dec 31, 2024 125   Virginia Tech W 79-57 98%    
  Jan 04, 2025 49   @ SMU W 77-70 76%    
  Jan 07, 2025 32   Pittsburgh W 76-65 85%    
  Jan 11, 2025 81   Notre Dame W 77-60 94%    
  Jan 14, 2025 91   Miami (FL) W 82-64 95%    
  Jan 18, 2025 150   @ Boston College W 78-61 95%    
  Jan 25, 2025 94   @ Wake Forest W 73-61 86%    
  Jan 27, 2025 79   North Carolina St. W 77-60 94%    
  Feb 01, 2025 18   North Carolina W 81-72 80%    
  Feb 05, 2025 97   @ Syracuse W 81-69 87%    
  Feb 08, 2025 30   @ Clemson W 70-65 68%    
  Feb 12, 2025 120   California W 85-64 97%    
  Feb 15, 2025 87   Stanford W 81-63 94%    
  Feb 17, 2025 93   @ Virginia W 66-54 86%    
  Feb 22, 2025 16   Illinois W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 25, 2025 91   @ Miami (FL) W 79-67 85%    
  Mar 01, 2025 65   Florida St. W 80-65 91%    
  Mar 03, 2025 94   Wake Forest W 76-58 95%    
  Mar 08, 2025 18   @ North Carolina W 78-75 61%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 18 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 6.1 15.3 23.0 21.8 11.1 78.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.1 5.0 3.8 1.0 0.1 13.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 0.9 0.1 4.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.1 6.6 12.0 19.2 24.0 21.8 11.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 11.1    11.1
19-1 99.7% 21.8    21.2 0.6
18-2 95.7% 23.0    19.9 3.0 0.1
17-3 79.7% 15.3    10.3 4.5 0.4 0.0
16-4 50.6% 6.1    2.8 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 19.2% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 78.6% 78.6 65.7 11.0 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 11.1% 100.0% 69.5% 30.5% 1.2 8.7 2.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 21.8% 100.0% 63.1% 36.9% 1.4 14.4 6.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 24.0% 100.0% 56.4% 43.6% 1.7 11.1 9.6 2.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 19.2% 100.0% 49.0% 51.0% 2.3 4.7 7.3 4.8 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 12.0% 100.0% 43.3% 56.7% 3.1 0.9 3.0 3.8 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.6% 99.8% 37.1% 62.7% 4.2 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.9 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-6 3.1% 99.4% 31.6% 67.8% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2%
13-7 1.3% 99.4% 27.1% 72.3% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
12-8 0.5% 97.4% 20.8% 76.6% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.8%
11-9 0.2% 87.8% 14.4% 73.3% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.7%
10-10 0.1% 86.8% 13.2% 73.7% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 84.8%
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.9% 53.6% 46.3% 2.2 40.0 29.3 14.1 8.2 3.9 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.0% 100.0% 1.2 83.2 16.4 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 100.0% 1.2 77.5 21.9 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 100.0% 1.3 73.0 25.9 0.9 0.2