Army
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.9#305
Expected Predictive Rating-5.3#256
Pace67.7#209
Improvement-1.2#235

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#282
First Shot-2.5#244
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#275
Layup/Dunks+0.3#167
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#71
Freethrows-3.6#355
Improvement-1.1#257

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#288
First Shot-3.8#297
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#208
Layups/Dunks-2.4#275
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#169
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#316
Freethrows+1.8#63
Improvement+0.0#185
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 7.5% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 37.9% 53.8% 26.0%
.500 or above in Conference 66.0% 81.8% 54.2%
Conference Champion 6.5% 10.5% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 1.5% 6.8%
First Four4.7% 5.5% 4.0%
First Round3.2% 4.5% 2.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Away) - 42.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 40 - 6
Quad 414 - 1014 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 260   Albany W 67-59 52%     1 - 0 -0.4 -8.7 +8.6
  Nov 08, 2024 1   @ Duke L 58-100 0.5%    1 - 1 -15.5 -2.9 -12.0
  Nov 15, 2024 218   @ Marist L 88-91 OT 24%     1 - 2 -3.4 +18.4 -21.8
  Nov 20, 2024 328   Fairleigh Dickinson W 84-70 69%     2 - 2 +0.8 +1.6 -1.1
  Nov 22, 2024 297   @ Manhattan L 79-80 38%     2 - 3 -5.9 -1.5 -4.4
  Dec 03, 2024 350   @ Le Moyne W 103-100 3OT 58%     3 - 3 -6.9 -3.6 -4.2
  Dec 08, 2024 134   Cornell L 84-103 25%     3 - 4 -20.0 +4.9 -24.4
  Dec 13, 2024 119   @ George Washington L 60-75 11%     3 - 5 -9.6 -4.5 -6.3
  Dec 22, 2024 322   Binghamton L 68-78 66%     3 - 6 -22.1 -13.3 -8.6
  Dec 29, 2024 229   Texas San Antonio W 78-75 45%     4 - 6 -3.6 -7.9 +4.1
  Jan 02, 2025 198   @ Colgate L 59-71 20%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -10.9 -11.4 +0.2
  Jan 05, 2025 282   @ Boston University L 63-71 36%     4 - 8 0 - 2 -12.2 -5.3 -7.6
  Jan 08, 2025 315   Loyola Maryland W 74-72 63%     5 - 8 1 - 2 -9.5 +1.3 -10.6
  Jan 11, 2025 296   @ Lehigh W 74-69 38%     6 - 8 2 - 2 +0.1 -4.0 +3.8
  Jan 15, 2025 276   Lafayette W 70-68 55%     7 - 8 3 - 2 -7.2 +3.3 -10.3
  Jan 18, 2025 282   Boston University W 68-62 57%     8 - 8 4 - 2 -3.7 +4.6 -7.2
  Jan 22, 2025 319   @ Holy Cross L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 26, 2025 291   Navy W 73-71 59%    
  Jan 29, 2025 198   Colgate L 68-72 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 236   @ American L 64-70 27%    
  Feb 05, 2025 319   Holy Cross W 75-71 65%    
  Feb 08, 2025 265   Bucknell W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 12, 2025 315   @ Loyola Maryland L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 15, 2025 291   @ Navy L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 19, 2025 236   American L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 23, 2025 265   @ Bucknell L 66-71 33%    
  Feb 25, 2025 276   @ Lafayette L 66-70 34%    
  Mar 01, 2025 296   Lehigh W 73-71 60%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 6.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 5.7 5.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 14.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 7.3 6.2 1.3 0.1 16.4 3rd
4th 0.7 6.6 7.5 1.4 0.1 16.3 4th
5th 0.2 4.0 8.1 1.9 0.0 14.1 5th
6th 1.3 6.9 2.5 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.3 4.2 4.0 0.2 8.7 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 3.9 0.6 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 2.6 0.9 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.6 10th
Total 0.3 1.7 5.5 10.5 16.1 18.9 18.2 14.0 8.5 4.4 1.7 0.4 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 97.5% 0.4    0.4 0.0
14-4 80.6% 1.3    0.9 0.4 0.0
13-5 53.9% 2.4    1.1 1.2 0.1
12-6 20.1% 1.7    0.4 0.9 0.4 0.1
11-7 4.3% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.5% 6.5 2.8 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 22.5% 22.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.7% 15.8% 15.8% 15.7 0.1 0.2 1.4
13-5 4.4% 15.5% 15.5% 15.9 0.1 0.6 3.7
12-6 8.5% 11.1% 11.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9 7.5
11-7 14.0% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1 12.8
10-8 18.2% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 1.2 17.0
9-9 18.9% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.8 18.1
8-10 16.1% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.6 15.5
7-11 10.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 10.4
6-12 5.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 5.4
5-13 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.7
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.6 94.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%