Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#236
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#165
Pace62.9#325
Improvement+1.6#73

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#272
First Shot-2.7#254
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#229
Layup/Dunks-3.1#283
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#29
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#166
Freethrows-3.3#343
Improvement-2.6#346

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#187
First Shot-1.3#216
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#116
Layups/Dunks-4.1#328
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#108
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#85
Freethrows-0.7#240
Improvement+4.2#3
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.1% 15.1% 10.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 89.5% 94.5% 83.6%
.500 or above in Conference 84.5% 87.4% 80.9%
Conference Champion 23.4% 27.0% 19.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.5% 1.2%
First Four2.5% 2.3% 2.9%
First Round11.8% 13.9% 9.4%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stony Brook (Away) - 54.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 32 - 32 - 3
Quad 418 - 819 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 232   @ Harvard L 66-79 38%     0 - 1 -13.8 -1.0 -13.7
  Nov 09, 2024 205   @ Richmond W 79-72 32%     1 - 1 +7.8 +11.2 -3.1
  Nov 15, 2024 305   Army W 91-88 OT 74%     2 - 1 -7.8 +12.1 -19.9
  Nov 19, 2024 306   Dartmouth W 75-62 74%     3 - 1 +2.2 -3.0 +4.9
  Nov 23, 2024 354   New Hampshire W 54-49 87%     4 - 1 -10.9 -17.3 +7.0
  Nov 30, 2024 246   @ Lehigh L 69-74 41%     4 - 2 -6.8 -0.6 -6.7
  Dec 06, 2024 266   Mount St. Mary's W 53-50 68%     5 - 2 1 - 0 -5.7 -18.2 +12.7
  Dec 08, 2024 316   @ Manhattan W 82-75 57%     6 - 2 2 - 0 +1.2 +7.8 -6.3
  Dec 17, 2024 309   @ Stony Brook W 67-66 54%    
  Dec 21, 2024 255   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-73 65%    
  Dec 29, 2024 310   Binghamton W 69-62 75%    
  Jan 03, 2025 257   @ Iona L 65-67 44%    
  Jan 05, 2025 238   Quinnipiac W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 12, 2025 292   Fairfield W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 16, 2025 221   @ St. Peter's L 60-64 35%    
  Jan 18, 2025 288   Rider W 67-61 70%    
  Jan 23, 2025 314   @ Niagara W 66-64 56%    
  Jan 25, 2025 352   @ Canisius W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 31, 2025 283   Siena W 66-60 70%    
  Feb 06, 2025 292   @ Fairfield L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 08, 2025 257   Iona W 68-64 66%    
  Feb 14, 2025 283   @ Siena L 63-64 49%    
  Feb 16, 2025 217   @ Merrimack L 60-64 35%    
  Feb 21, 2025 352   Canisius W 74-62 86%    
  Feb 23, 2025 314   Niagara W 69-61 75%    
  Feb 28, 2025 277   @ Sacred Heart L 69-70 47%    
  Mar 02, 2025 221   St. Peter's W 63-61 57%    
  Mar 06, 2025 217   Merrimack W 63-61 57%    
  Mar 08, 2025 266   @ Mount St. Mary's L 67-68 46%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.6 6.1 6.0 4.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 23.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.6 6.3 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.2 5.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 4.5 2.3 0.2 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.3 3.1 0.4 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 3.2 0.7 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 2.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.5 0.2 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.3 6.9 9.4 11.7 13.1 13.6 12.6 10.0 7.1 4.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 99.6% 2.0    1.9 0.0
17-3 95.6% 4.1    3.7 0.4 0.0
16-4 84.3% 6.0    4.5 1.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 60.4% 6.1    3.3 2.3 0.4 0.0
14-6 28.9% 3.6    1.0 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-7 6.9% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.4% 23.4 15.3 5.9 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 56.7% 56.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.6% 41.2% 41.2% 13.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
18-2 2.0% 36.5% 36.5% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2
17-3 4.2% 31.2% 31.2% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.0 2.9
16-4 7.1% 26.0% 26.0% 14.8 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.2 5.3
15-5 10.0% 20.7% 20.7% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.6 8.0
14-6 12.6% 17.1% 17.1% 15.5 0.1 0.9 1.1 10.4
13-7 13.6% 14.2% 14.2% 15.7 0.0 0.6 1.4 11.7
12-8 13.1% 10.1% 10.1% 15.8 0.2 1.1 11.8
11-9 11.7% 6.8% 6.8% 15.9 0.1 0.7 10.9
10-10 9.4% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 9.0
9-11 6.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 6.7
8-12 4.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 4.2
7-13 2.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.5
6-14 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.7 5.8 86.9 0.0%