Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.5#310
Expected Predictive Rating-9.6#311
Pace62.9#322
Improvement+0.6#154

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#273
First Shot+0.6#159
After Offensive Rebound-4.4#356
Layup/Dunks-2.0#258
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#263
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#39
Freethrows-1.2#263
Improvement-1.9#290

Defense
Total Defense-4.8#312
First Shot-7.4#353
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#18
Layups/Dunks-0.1#171
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#128
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.4#360
Freethrows+0.4#151
Improvement+2.5#59
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.9% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 4.6% 8.6% 1.9%
.500 or above in Conference 13.0% 22.9% 6.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 22.3% 12.0% 29.2%
First Four1.2% 1.5% 1.0%
First Round0.9% 1.3% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marist (Home) - 40.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 411 - 1312 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 12   @ Michigan St. L 60-96 1%     0 - 1 -16.1 -3.4 -12.4
  Nov 10, 2024 331   @ Detroit Mercy L 78-84 OT 47%     0 - 2 -13.9 -3.0 -10.4
  Nov 19, 2024 285   @ Bowling Green L 68-76 34%     0 - 3 -12.4 +1.3 -14.6
  Nov 21, 2024 159   @ Kent St. L 73-76 14%     0 - 4 +0.0 +10.8 -11.0
  Nov 29, 2024 322   Binghamton W 65-62 53%     1 - 4 -6.3 -4.6 -1.4
  Nov 30, 2024 276   @ Lafayette L 47-59 32%     1 - 5 -15.7 -22.5 +6.0
  Dec 01, 2024 314   LIU Brooklyn W 60-52 51%     2 - 5 -0.7 -5.0 +5.5
  Dec 06, 2024 270   Siena W 69-68 52%     3 - 5 1 - 0 -7.9 +5.3 -13.1
  Dec 08, 2024 206   Merrimack L 62-80 36%     3 - 6 1 - 1 -22.9 +5.1 -32.5
  Dec 14, 2024 345   St. Francis (PA) W 69-66 72%     4 - 6 -11.7 -3.4 -7.9
  Dec 21, 2024 96   @ St. Bonaventure L 52-71 7%     4 - 7 -10.8 -11.8 -0.7
  Dec 29, 2024 350   Le Moyne W 88-69 75%     5 - 7 +3.6 +5.3 -2.2
  Jan 05, 2025 266   @ Mount St. Mary's L 62-68 30%     5 - 8 1 - 2 -9.2 -11.3 +2.3
  Jan 10, 2025 232   St. Peter's W 70-60 43%     6 - 8 2 - 2 +3.3 +4.3 -0.2
  Jan 12, 2025 294   Rider L 65-68 57%     6 - 9 2 - 3 -13.4 -5.5 -8.2
  Jan 16, 2025 318   @ Fairfield L 66-70 41%     6 - 10 2 - 4 -10.3 -4.5 -6.2
  Jan 18, 2025 297   @ Manhattan L 65-72 36%     6 - 11 2 - 5 -11.9 -2.6 -10.6
  Jan 23, 2025 218   Marist L 62-65 40%    
  Jan 25, 2025 295   Sacred Heart W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 31, 2025 346   @ Canisius W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 06, 2025 206   @ Merrimack L 60-69 19%    
  Feb 08, 2025 184   @ Quinnipiac L 66-76 16%    
  Feb 12, 2025 346   Canisius W 73-67 73%    
  Feb 14, 2025 266   Mount St. Mary's W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 21, 2025 270   @ Siena L 64-69 31%    
  Feb 23, 2025 218   @ Marist L 60-68 22%    
  Feb 28, 2025 253   Iona L 68-69 49%    
  Mar 02, 2025 297   Manhattan W 74-72 59%    
  Mar 06, 2025 232   @ St. Peter's L 58-65 25%    
  Mar 08, 2025 294   @ Rider L 65-69 35%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.4 1.4 0.7 0.1 2.5 4th
5th 0.5 2.2 1.4 0.2 4.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 3.3 0.5 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 5.1 1.6 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.5 5.4 4.3 0.3 10.5 8th
9th 0.2 3.7 7.2 1.2 12.3 9th
10th 0.1 2.0 7.9 3.7 0.0 13.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.5 6.5 6.0 0.5 0.0 14.5 11th
12th 0.1 1.1 5.3 6.6 1.5 0.0 14.7 12th
13th 0.3 1.7 4.0 4.5 1.4 0.1 11.9 13th
Total 0.3 1.8 5.1 11.3 16.7 19.7 18.5 13.5 7.7 3.5 1.4 0.3 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 9.1% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.3% 16.7% 16.7% 16.0 0.1 0.3
12-8 1.4% 6.4% 6.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 1.3
11-9 3.5% 5.1% 5.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.3
10-10 7.7% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 7.4
9-11 13.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.3 13.2
8-12 18.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.3 18.2
7-13 19.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 19.5
6-14 16.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.7
5-15 11.3% 11.3
4-16 5.1% 5.1
3-17 1.8% 1.8
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 1.4 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%