Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.8 #352
Expected Predictive Rating -13.7 #345
Pace 59.5 #364
Improvement +0.3 #172

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #341 D- F D+ F B
Defense #330 D- F D+ C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #56 0.99 #343 -0.8 #215
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #260 0.71 #240 -1.9 #279
Three Pointers 40% #195 0.91 #311 -2.7 #278
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #327 -5.4 #326
Freethrows 13.2 #352 72% #192 9.5 #347
Second Chance 23.1% #344 0.84 #356 0.19 #362
Turnovers 17.6% #257
Total Offense -7.2 #341

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #185 1.17 #193 -0.4 #188
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #241 0.91 #351 -0.6 #224
Three Pointers 43% #120 1.15 #332 -3.8 #320
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #319 -4.7 #319
Freethrows 17.7 #180 77% #351 13.7 #252
Second Chance 36.5% #347 1.07 #230 0.39 #326
Turnovers 15.3% #252
Total Defense -5.5 #330

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #73 0.6% #220
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.9% #345 8.6% #322
Possession Length 20.3 #362 17.6 #230
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #336 0.22 #326
Improvement +0.2 #161 +0.1 #184

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.5% 1.8% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 36.3% 18.3% 40.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Away) - 18.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 60 - 8
Quad 47 - 147 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 118 @Duquesne L 63 - 83 5% -17  0 - 1 -14 -8 F F F -6 F C A+
 Sat, Nov 8 362 @Binghamton W 67 - 59 50% +0  1 - 1 -5 -5 F D- C +1 A+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 355 Delaware St. W 68 - 57 66% +8  2 - 1 -6 +3 A+ F A+ -8 C- F F
 Mon, Nov 17 278 @Le Moyne L 68 - 74 19% -4  2 - 2 -10 -4 C F D+ -6 F A+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 3 @Duke L 42 - 100 0% -30  2 - 3 -33 -15 F C- F -23 F F D
 Sat, Nov 22 265 Howard L 70 - 80 25% +4  2 - 4 -16 -8 D B- F -7 D+ D C
 Sat, Nov 29 286 Detroit Mercy L 66 - 70 40% -6  2 - 5 -14 -8 D F B -7 B+ F D+
 Fri, Dec 5 169 @Siena L 54 - 83 9% -22  2 - 6 0 - 1 -27 -14 F F A+ -15 F D F
 Sun, Dec 7 220 @St. Peter's L 43 - 71 13% -13  2 - 7 0 - 2 -29 -21 F F F -12 D- F F
 Sat, Dec 13 360 @Morgan St. L 73 - 81 50% -4  2 - 8 -21 -4 F D B- -18 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 15 55 @Virginia Commonwealth L 58 - 84 2% -8  2 - 9 -13 -3 F D+ B -13 F B B-
 Fri, Jan 2 270 Sacred Heart W 64 - 61 36% +9  3 - 9 1 - 2 -6 -3 B+ F D+ -3 A+ F A+
 Sun, Jan 4 274 Fairfield L 75 - 83 37% -5  3 - 10 1 - 3 -17 +8 A+ F C -26 F F F
 Fri, Jan 9 227 @Iona L 53 - 71 13% -16  3 - 11 1 - 4 -19 -11 F F A+ -11 D F D
 Sun, Jan 11 327 @Manhattan L 70 - 79 30% +1  3 - 12 1 - 5 -16 +2 A- F C- -20 C+ F F
 Wed, Jan 14 344 @Canisius W 59 - 54 35% +3  4 - 12 2 - 5 -4 -4 D F F +1 B+ C C+
 Mon, Jan 19 288 Mount St. Mary's L 58 - 68 41% +3  4 - 13 2 - 6 -20 -9 F A+ F -13 F B- F
 Thu, Jan 22 274 @Fairfield L 61 - 62 18% -3  4 - 14 2 - 7 -4 -11 D F F +6 C C- A
 Sat, Jan 24 270 @Sacred Heart L 66 - 76 18%
 Fri, Jan 30 169 Siena L 61 - 70 20%
 Sun, Feb 1 160 Marist L 57 - 67 18%
 Tue, Feb 3 344 Canisius W 64 - 62 58%
 Sat, Feb 7 175 @Quinnipiac L 62 - 77 9%
 Fri, Feb 13 327 Manhattan W 71 - 70 52%
 Sun, Feb 15 227 Iona L 66 - 72 29%
 Fri, Feb 20 288 @Mount St. Mary's L 62 - 70 21%
 Sun, Feb 22 354 @Rider L 62 - 65 40%
 Fri, Feb 27 175 Quinnipiac L 65 - 74 21%
 Sun, Mar 1 208 Merrimack L 60 - 67 26%
Totals 7 - 22 5 - 15 -13 -7 D- F D+ -6 D- F D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.4 2.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.5 5.2 1.2 0.0 11.6 10th
11th 0.0 1.5 8.2 10.5 3.0 0.2 23.3 11th
12th 0.3 4.0 12.9 13.8 4.1 0.3 35.3 12th
13th 3.2 8.4 6.6 1.9 0.1 20.2 13th
Total 3.5 12.4 20.9 24.5 19.6 11.4 5.3 1.9 0.4 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.1% 0.1
10-10 0.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
9-11 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.9
8-12 5.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.3
7-13 11.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.3
6-14 19.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.5
5-15 24.5% 24.5
4-16 20.9% 20.9
3-17 12.4% 12.4
2-18 3.5% 3.5
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.5%