Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.7#314
Expected Predictive Rating-7.4#294
Pace61.5#347
Improvement+1.2#99

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#249
First Shot+1.2#141
After Offensive Rebound-4.1#357
Layup/Dunks-1.7#244
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#281
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#22
Freethrows-1.9#288
Improvement+0.2#162

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#340
First Shot-8.7#363
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#18
Layups/Dunks-1.1#215
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#215
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.3#359
Freethrows+1.0#117
Improvement+1.0#107
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 4.1% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 16.6% 37.6% 15.5%
.500 or above in Conference 32.6% 45.4% 32.0%
Conference Champion 1.6% 3.4% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 11.9% 6.5% 12.2%
First Four1.7% 2.0% 1.6%
First Round1.4% 2.9% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Away) - 4.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 412 - 1213 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 14   @ Michigan St. L 60-96 1%     0 - 1 -17.7 -3.8 -13.6
  Nov 10, 2024 320   @ Detroit Mercy L 78-84 OT 39%     0 - 2 -11.8 -2.8 -8.6
  Nov 19, 2024 265   @ Bowling Green L 68-76 28%     0 - 3 -10.7 +0.6 -12.3
  Nov 21, 2024 115   @ Kent St. L 73-76 9%     0 - 4 +3.3 +11.4 -8.3
  Nov 29, 2024 310   Binghamton W 65-62 48%     1 - 4 -5.2 -2.7 -2.0
  Nov 30, 2024 239   @ Lafayette L 47-59 23%     1 - 5 -13.0 -21.6 +7.7
  Dec 01, 2024 337   LIU Brooklyn W 60-52 58%     2 - 5 -2.8 -7.4 +5.8
  Dec 06, 2024 283   Siena W 69-68 54%     3 - 5 1 - 0 -8.6 +4.8 -13.2
  Dec 08, 2024 217   Merrimack L 62-80 39%     3 - 6 1 - 1 -23.8 +4.8 -33.1
  Dec 14, 2024 335   St. Francis (PA) W 69-66 68%     4 - 6 -10.5 -2.6 -7.5
  Dec 21, 2024 89   @ St. Bonaventure L 57-75 5%    
  Dec 29, 2024 338   Le Moyne W 72-67 69%    
  Jan 05, 2025 266   @ Mount St. Mary's L 66-72 29%    
  Jan 10, 2025 221   St. Peter's L 62-65 39%    
  Jan 12, 2025 288   Rider W 67-66 54%    
  Jan 16, 2025 292   @ Fairfield L 68-73 33%    
  Jan 18, 2025 316   @ Manhattan L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 23, 2025 236   Marist L 64-66 44%    
  Jan 25, 2025 277   Sacred Heart W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 31, 2025 352   @ Canisius W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 06, 2025 217   @ Merrimack L 60-69 21%    
  Feb 08, 2025 238   @ Quinnipiac L 67-75 24%    
  Feb 12, 2025 352   Canisius W 74-67 73%    
  Feb 14, 2025 266   Mount St. Mary's W 70-69 50%    
  Feb 21, 2025 283   @ Siena L 63-68 32%    
  Feb 23, 2025 236   @ Marist L 61-69 25%    
  Feb 28, 2025 257   Iona L 68-69 49%    
  Mar 02, 2025 316   Manhattan W 73-70 61%    
  Mar 06, 2025 221   @ St. Peter's L 59-68 22%    
  Mar 08, 2025 288   @ Rider L 64-69 33%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.1 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 2.4 0.5 0.1 5.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 3.4 1.2 0.1 6.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.8 2.4 0.2 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.5 4.0 0.6 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.2 2.6 5.2 1.6 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 5.5 3.1 0.2 10.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.2 4.5 0.7 0.0 12.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.7 5.1 1.3 0.0 13.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.1 4.0 1.4 0.1 12.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.1 1.7 0.6 0.0 6.6 13th
Total 0.1 0.7 1.9 4.3 7.5 11.0 13.8 14.5 13.6 11.4 8.7 6.0 3.5 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 95.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 79.2% 0.2    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 57.9% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 26.2% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 7.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 25.0% 25.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.3% 20.8% 20.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.8% 14.4% 14.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7
14-6 1.8% 11.8% 11.8% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.6
13-7 3.5% 10.2% 10.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 3.1
12-8 6.0% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5 5.5
11-9 8.7% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 8.3
10-10 11.4% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.1
9-11 13.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 13.4
8-12 14.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 14.3
7-13 13.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.7
6-14 11.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.0
5-15 7.5% 7.5
4-16 4.3% 4.3
3-17 1.9% 1.9
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%