St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.7#350
Expected Predictive Rating+1.0#172
Pace73.1#80
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-7.5#353
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#336
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 6.6% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 12.2% 26.5% 9.6%
.500 or above in Conference 40.3% 52.1% 38.1%
Conference Champion 3.9% 6.7% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 17.5% 11.0% 18.7%
First Four3.9% 5.6% 3.6%
First Round1.6% 3.1% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Away) - 15.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 49 - 1110 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 58   @ Dayton L 57-87 2%     0 - 1 -18.2 -9.8 -8.2
  Nov 08, 2024 44   @ Clemson L 62-88 2%     0 - 2 -12.6 -6.3 -5.6
  Nov 10, 2024 304   @ Campbell W 65-64 21%     1 - 2 -3.3 -8.0 +4.8
  Nov 12, 2024 36   @ Penn St. L 62-92 1%     1 - 3 -15.7 -11.8 +0.0
  Nov 16, 2024 256   @ Mount St. Mary's L 68-79 16%    
  Nov 23, 2024 105   @ Georgetown L 63-83 3%    
  Nov 26, 2024 260   Lehigh L 73-78 34%    
  Dec 01, 2024 254   Radford L 70-75 32%    
  Dec 14, 2024 320   @ Niagara L 69-76 27%    
  Dec 17, 2024 31   @ Maryland L 56-84 1%    
  Jan 03, 2025 235   Central Connecticut St. L 67-73 29%    
  Jan 05, 2025 359   Stonehill W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 10, 2025 356   Mercyhurst W 70-66 66%    
  Jan 12, 2025 348   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 77-80 39%    
  Jan 16, 2025 339   @ LIU Brooklyn L 72-77 33%    
  Jan 20, 2025 275   @ Wagner L 57-67 20%    
  Jan 24, 2025 339   LIU Brooklyn W 75-74 55%    
  Jan 26, 2025 275   Wagner L 60-64 37%    
  Jan 30, 2025 356   @ Mercyhurst L 67-69 45%    
  Feb 06, 2025 337   Le Moyne W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 08, 2025 342   @ Chicago St. L 71-76 35%    
  Feb 13, 2025 359   @ Stonehill L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 15, 2025 235   @ Central Connecticut St. L 64-76 15%    
  Feb 20, 2025 337   @ Le Moyne L 70-75 34%    
  Feb 22, 2025 348   Fairleigh Dickinson W 80-77 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 342   Chicago St. W 74-73 55%    
Projected Record 9 - 17 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.2 4.0 1.3 0.2 10.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.2 4.5 1.0 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 5.9 5.1 1.1 0.0 13.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 6.0 5.3 1.0 0.0 14.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.6 5.2 1.1 0.0 13.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.4 4.0 0.9 0.0 12.9 8th
9th 0.2 1.3 2.8 3.7 2.3 0.5 0.0 10.9 9th
Total 0.2 1.3 3.2 6.1 9.5 11.7 13.7 14.0 12.4 10.5 7.7 5.0 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-2 92.2% 0.5    0.4 0.0
13-3 74.4% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
12-4 42.4% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-5 16.5% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-6 3.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.1% 51.2% 51.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
14-2 0.5% 28.8% 28.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4
13-3 1.3% 21.4% 21.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.0
12-4 2.8% 18.4% 18.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5 2.3
11-5 5.0% 12.3% 12.3% 16.0 0.6 4.4
10-6 7.7% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.7 7.0
9-7 10.5% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.6 9.8
8-8 12.4% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.5 12.0
7-9 14.0% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.4 13.6
6-10 13.7% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.3 13.4
5-11 11.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.6
4-12 9.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.5
3-13 6.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.1
2-14 3.2% 3.2
1-15 1.3% 1.3
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.1 95.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%