St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.5#335
Expected Predictive Rating-7.3#291
Pace70.8#124
Improvement-0.1#201

Offense
Total Offense-5.6#330
First Shot-3.9#292
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#281
Layup/Dunks-2.9#281
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#113
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#132
Freethrows-3.6#347
Improvement+1.2#88

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#323
First Shot-4.9#330
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#180
Layups/Dunks+0.6#147
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#292
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#346
Freethrows+1.4#88
Improvement-1.3#292
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 15.1% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 13.9% 45.0% 13.8%
.500 or above in Conference 55.0% 75.2% 54.9%
Conference Champion 7.0% 15.1% 7.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.6% 4.1% 10.6%
First Four6.7% 9.6% 6.7%
First Round3.0% 8.3% 3.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland (Away) - 0.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 410 - 1011 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 38   @ Dayton L 57-87 2%     0 - 1 -15.2 -11.5 -3.5
  Nov 08, 2024 30   @ Clemson L 62-88 2%     0 - 2 -10.3 -3.8 -5.8
  Nov 10, 2024 269   @ Campbell W 65-64 23%     1 - 2 -1.8 -6.5 +4.7
  Nov 12, 2024 31   @ Penn St. L 62-92 2%     1 - 3 -14.3 -11.5 +1.2
  Nov 16, 2024 266   @ Mount St. Mary's L 58-66 23%     1 - 4 -10.7 -13.3 +2.3
  Nov 23, 2024 90   @ Georgetown L 65-82 5%     1 - 5 -7.9 -3.9 -3.7
  Nov 26, 2024 246   Lehigh W 88-78 39%     2 - 5 +2.2 +9.8 -7.5
  Dec 01, 2024 202   Radford L 70-79 29%     2 - 6 -13.8 +1.1 -15.8
  Dec 14, 2024 314   @ Niagara L 66-69 32%     2 - 7 -8.7 -3.8 -5.2
  Dec 17, 2024 19   @ Maryland L 61-89 0.4%   
  Jan 03, 2025 222   Central Connecticut St. L 66-70 34%    
  Jan 05, 2025 323   Stonehill W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 10, 2025 360   Mercyhurst W 72-65 74%    
  Jan 12, 2025 339   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 79-81 42%    
  Jan 18, 2025 337   @ LIU Brooklyn L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 20, 2025 290   @ Wagner L 57-64 27%    
  Jan 24, 2025 337   LIU Brooklyn W 73-70 62%    
  Jan 26, 2025 290   Wagner L 60-61 47%    
  Jan 30, 2025 360   @ Mercyhurst W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 06, 2025 338   Le Moyne W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 359   @ Chicago St. W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 13, 2025 323   @ Stonehill L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 15, 2025 222   @ Central Connecticut St. L 63-73 18%    
  Feb 20, 2025 338   @ Le Moyne L 72-74 41%    
  Feb 22, 2025 339   Fairleigh Dickinson W 82-78 63%    
  Mar 01, 2025 359   Chicago St. W 76-69 73%    
Projected Record 10 - 16 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.3 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 7.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.1 4.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 12.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 6.0 5.1 1.5 0.1 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 6.4 5.5 1.2 0.1 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 5.9 5.9 1.1 0.0 14.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.9 5.6 1.2 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 4.0 4.8 1.2 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 3.6 1.1 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.0 1.7 0.6 0.0 5.8 9th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.8 5.4 9.1 11.9 14.2 15.1 13.9 11.0 7.4 4.5 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-2 96.2% 0.8    0.6 0.1
13-3 79.4% 1.7    1.3 0.5 0.0
12-4 50.4% 2.3    1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
11-5 21.3% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-6 4.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 7.0% 7.0 3.6 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.2% 18.7% 18.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.8% 30.3% 30.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5
13-3 2.2% 21.1% 21.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4 1.7
12-4 4.5% 20.7% 20.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9 3.5
11-5 7.4% 15.3% 15.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1 6.3
10-6 11.0% 11.1% 11.1% 16.0 1.2 9.8
9-7 13.9% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 1.1 12.8
8-8 15.1% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.9 14.3
7-9 14.2% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.7 13.5
6-10 11.9% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.4 11.5
5-11 9.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 8.9
4-12 5.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.4
3-13 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.8
2-14 1.2% 1.2
1-15 0.3% 0.3
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.1 92.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%