Wagner
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#290
Expected Predictive Rating+0.8#158
Pace57.0#363
Improvement+0.5#151

Offense
Total Offense-9.3#360
First Shot-8.4#355
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#237
Layup/Dunks-6.0#345
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#72
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#276
Freethrows-1.5#270
Improvement-0.2#196

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#110
First Shot-1.1#201
After Offensive Rebounds+3.6#6
Layups/Dunks+0.5#153
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#127
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#208
Freethrows-1.9#303
Improvement+0.7#133
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.4% 21.1% 15.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 82.3% 88.1% 70.0%
.500 or above in Conference 84.2% 86.5% 79.4%
Conference Champion 24.6% 27.2% 19.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.8% 3.4%
First Four10.7% 10.5% 11.1%
First Round13.2% 15.1% 9.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Home) - 68.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 11 - 5
Quad 415 - 616 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 62   @ Rutgers L 52-75 5%     0 - 1 -11.2 -14.0 +2.4
  Nov 13, 2024 15   @ St. John's L 45-66 2%     0 - 2 -2.7 -15.1 +10.5
  Nov 16, 2024 117   @ Seton Hall L 28-54 12%     0 - 3 -20.0 -28.3 +0.1
  Nov 19, 2024 252   @ Boston University W 60-58 33%     1 - 3 -0.2 -3.5 +3.7
  Nov 26, 2024 90   @ Georgetown L 41-66 8%     1 - 4 -15.9 -20.4 +0.5
  Dec 04, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 65-52 90%     2 - 4 -8.1 +0.1 -5.2
  Dec 08, 2024 358   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 63-61 66%     3 - 4 -9.0 -5.7 -3.1
  Dec 14, 2024 351   @ NJIT W 50-43 61%     4 - 4 -2.6 -19.7 +17.8
  Dec 18, 2024 316   Manhattan W 65-60 68%    
  Jan 03, 2025 359   Chicago St. W 65-55 83%    
  Jan 05, 2025 339   Fairleigh Dickinson W 69-62 75%    
  Jan 10, 2025 222   @ Central Connecticut St. L 53-60 27%    
  Jan 18, 2025 360   Mercyhurst W 63-52 84%    
  Jan 20, 2025 335   St. Francis (PA) W 64-57 73%    
  Jan 24, 2025 360   @ Mercyhurst W 60-55 67%    
  Jan 26, 2025 335   @ St. Francis (PA) W 61-60 53%    
  Jan 30, 2025 323   @ Stonehill L 58-59 48%    
  Feb 01, 2025 338   Le Moyne W 63-56 74%    
  Feb 06, 2025 337   LIU Brooklyn W 62-55 74%    
  Feb 08, 2025 339   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 66-65 55%    
  Feb 13, 2025 338   @ Le Moyne W 60-59 54%    
  Feb 20, 2025 323   Stonehill W 61-56 68%    
  Feb 22, 2025 359   @ Chicago St. W 62-58 66%    
  Feb 27, 2025 337   @ LIU Brooklyn W 59-58 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 222   Central Connecticut St. L 56-57 48%    
Projected Record 15 - 10 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.2 6.4 7.3 4.7 2.0 0.4 24.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 6.7 9.3 6.0 1.9 0.3 25.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 6.1 6.7 2.6 0.4 0.0 17.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.7 5.0 1.4 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 4.0 1.0 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.0 0.7 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.7 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.5 7.4 10.7 13.7 15.4 15.1 12.8 9.2 5.0 2.0 0.4 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
15-1 100.0% 2.0    1.9 0.0
14-2 94.5% 4.7    4.2 0.5 0.0
13-3 79.0% 7.3    5.3 1.9 0.1
12-4 50.0% 6.4    3.3 2.6 0.5 0.0
11-5 21.1% 3.2    0.8 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 4.1% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 24.6% 24.6 16.1 6.7 1.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.4% 51.9% 51.9% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-1 2.0% 45.2% 45.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.1
14-2 5.0% 40.2% 40.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.5 3.0
13-3 9.2% 34.5% 34.5% 15.6 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.9 6.0
12-4 12.8% 27.3% 27.3% 15.8 0.0 0.5 3.0 9.3
11-5 15.1% 21.8% 21.8% 16.0 0.1 3.2 11.8
10-6 15.4% 16.6% 16.6% 16.0 0.0 2.5 12.9
9-7 13.7% 13.1% 13.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8 11.9
8-8 10.7% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1 9.6
7-9 7.4% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6 6.8
6-10 4.5% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.2 4.2
5-11 2.3% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.1 2.2
4-12 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-13 0.4% 0.4
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 3.4 14.9 80.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.9 1.1 27.2 50.0 20.7 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%