Mercyhurst
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.1#356
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#212
Pace64.2#324
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-9.2#361
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#328
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 5.7% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 7.7% 23.7% 6.6%
.500 or above in Conference 28.7% 45.1% 27.5%
Conference Champion 2.1% 4.6% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 26.8% 14.7% 27.7%
First Four2.6% 5.3% 2.4%
First Round1.0% 2.5% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Columbia (Away) - 6.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 8
Quad 49 - 129 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 153   @ George Washington L 59-76 6%     0 - 1 -13.2 -9.4 -5.0
  Nov 06, 2024 338   @ Morgan St. W 78-73 27%     1 - 1 -2.9 +0.6 -3.4
  Nov 13, 2024 318   Canisius W 62-52 41%     2 - 1 -1.7 -8.9 +8.6
  Nov 16, 2024 182   @ Columbia L 63-79 7%    
  Nov 24, 2024 286   @ Air Force L 57-68 16%    
  Nov 27, 2024 119   @ California L 59-79 3%    
  Nov 30, 2024 296   @ Sacramento St. L 56-66 18%    
  Dec 01, 2024 69   @ San Francisco L 55-80 1%    
  Dec 07, 2024 216   Lafayette L 59-67 23%    
  Dec 15, 2024 122   @ Kent St. L 55-75 4%    
  Dec 18, 2024 330   @ Binghamton L 62-70 25%    
  Dec 22, 2024 57   @ West Virginia L 55-81 1%    
  Jan 03, 2025 359   Stonehill W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 05, 2025 235   Central Connecticut St. L 61-69 25%    
  Jan 10, 2025 350   @ St. Francis (PA) L 66-70 34%    
  Jan 12, 2025 337   @ Le Moyne L 64-70 29%    
  Jan 18, 2025 275   @ Wagner L 52-63 16%    
  Jan 20, 2025 339   @ LIU Brooklyn L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 24, 2025 275   Wagner L 55-60 33%    
  Jan 26, 2025 339   LIU Brooklyn L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 30, 2025 350   St. Francis (PA) W 69-67 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 348   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 70-75 34%    
  Feb 06, 2025 342   @ Chicago St. L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 08, 2025 337   Le Moyne L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 13, 2025 235   @ Central Connecticut St. L 58-72 12%    
  Feb 15, 2025 359   @ Stonehill L 64-67 41%    
  Feb 20, 2025 348   Fairleigh Dickinson W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 27, 2025 342   Chicago St. L 68-69 50%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 3.0 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 4.3 3.4 0.7 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 5.5 4.1 0.7 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 6.1 4.9 0.9 0.0 13.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.3 5.4 0.9 0.0 15.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.5 6.8 4.9 1.1 0.0 17.0 8th
9th 0.7 2.7 5.1 5.6 3.0 0.7 0.0 17.9 9th
Total 0.7 2.8 5.8 9.3 12.2 13.6 14.2 12.7 10.4 7.6 5.0 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-2 94.8% 0.2    0.2 0.0
13-3 76.6% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
12-4 40.2% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-5 17.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.1% 27.3% 27.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.3% 31.2% 31.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.2
13-3 0.7% 16.6% 16.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6
12-4 1.5% 16.5% 16.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 1.3
11-5 3.1% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.4 2.7
10-6 5.0% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.4 4.6
9-7 7.6% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.4 7.2
8-8 10.4% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.4 10.0
7-9 12.7% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.3 12.4
6-10 14.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 14.0
5-11 13.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 13.5
4-12 12.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.2
3-13 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.3
2-14 5.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.8
1-15 2.8% 2.8
0-16 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.7 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%