Mercyhurst
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.6#359
Expected Predictive Rating-10.3#321
Pace62.2#335
Improvement-1.7#257

Offense
Total Offense-7.7#348
First Shot-4.3#297
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#339
Layup/Dunks-2.5#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#101
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#247
Freethrows-0.8#234
Improvement+0.5#151

Defense
Total Defense-6.9#348
First Shot-2.3#248
After Offensive Rebounds-4.7#364
Layups/Dunks-4.2#324
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#26
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#191
Freethrows-0.3#206
Improvement-2.2#294
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.4% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.6% 1.9% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 21.3% 41.9% 16.3%
Conference Champion 0.6% 2.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 28.1% 12.0% 32.0%
First Four2.0% 2.4% 1.9%
First Round0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Away) - 19.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 49 - 129 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 119   @ George Washington L 59-76 4%     0 - 1 -11.6 -6.0 -6.8
  Nov 06, 2024 334   @ Morgan St. W 78-73 28%     1 - 1 -3.6 -1.6 -2.0
  Nov 13, 2024 346   Canisius W 62-52 50%     2 - 1 -4.7 -12.4 +9.1
  Nov 16, 2024 207   @ Columbia L 63-77 9%     2 - 2 -13.5 -6.8 -8.2
  Nov 24, 2024 275   @ Air Force L 48-82 15%     2 - 3 -37.7 -16.6 -27.8
  Nov 27, 2024 118   @ California L 55-81 4%     2 - 4 -20.5 -13.2 -9.3
  Nov 30, 2024 337   @ Sacramento St. W 66-60 28%     3 - 4 -2.7 +0.8 -2.7
  Dec 01, 2024 75   @ San Francisco L 59-87 2%     3 - 5 -17.9 -5.0 -14.7
  Dec 07, 2024 276   Lafayette L 73-77 30%     3 - 6 -13.2 +4.4 -18.0
  Dec 15, 2024 159   @ Kent St. L 57-82 6%     3 - 7 -22.0 -6.3 -17.5
  Dec 18, 2024 322   @ Binghamton L 60-62 22%     3 - 8 -8.6 -11.2 +2.4
  Dec 22, 2024 32   @ West Virginia L 46-67 1%     3 - 9 -5.3 -13.8 +6.9
  Jan 03, 2025 312   Stonehill W 76-69 38%     4 - 9 1 - 0 -4.4 -1.6 -2.7
  Jan 05, 2025 230   Central Connecticut St. L 50-62 22%     4 - 10 1 - 1 -18.7 -14.0 -6.7
  Jan 10, 2025 345   @ St. Francis (PA) L 59-73 30%     4 - 11 1 - 2 -23.2 -9.5 -15.8
  Jan 12, 2025 350   @ Le Moyne L 63-79 33%     4 - 12 1 - 3 -25.9 -8.4 -19.2
  Jan 18, 2025 335   @ Wagner W 69-65 28%     5 - 12 2 - 3 -4.6 +5.8 -9.9
  Jan 20, 2025 314   @ LIU Brooklyn L 59-68 20%    
  Jan 24, 2025 335   Wagner L 58-59 48%    
  Jan 26, 2025 314   LIU Brooklyn L 62-65 39%    
  Jan 30, 2025 345   St. Francis (PA) W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 01, 2025 328   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 69-76 25%    
  Feb 06, 2025 357   @ Chicago St. L 65-68 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 350   Le Moyne W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 13, 2025 230   @ Central Connecticut St. L 56-69 10%    
  Feb 15, 2025 312   @ Stonehill L 62-71 20%    
  Feb 20, 2025 328   Fairleigh Dickinson L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 27, 2025 357   Chicago St. W 67-65 59%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 3.5 1.0 0.1 6.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 5.8 2.1 0.2 9.9 4th
5th 1.3 8.1 4.1 0.2 13.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 8.0 7.3 0.6 16.6 6th
7th 0.6 5.7 9.9 1.4 17.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 5.3 9.6 3.0 0.0 18.6 8th
9th 1.1 4.6 6.8 2.7 0.1 15.2 9th
Total 1.1 5.3 12.7 18.7 22.3 18.7 12.0 6.3 2.4 0.6 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 87.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 48.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 9.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
11-5 0.6% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
10-6 2.4% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.1 2.3
9-7 6.3% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.3 6.0
8-8 12.0% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.4 11.6
7-9 18.7% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.4 18.2
6-10 22.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.4 21.9
5-11 18.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 18.4
4-12 12.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.6
3-13 5.3% 5.3
2-14 1.1% 1.1
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 16.0 2.0 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%