Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.2#349
Expected Predictive Rating-15.1#352
Pace75.0#43
Improvement+0.2#169

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#297
First Shot-5.1#320
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#136
Layup/Dunks-0.2#193
2 Pt Jumpshots+8.0#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-11.4#361
Freethrows-1.6#275
Improvement+1.4#71

Defense
Total Defense-7.9#357
First Shot-8.2#360
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#161
Layups/Dunks-4.1#326
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#142
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#255
Freethrows-3.0#340
Improvement-1.3#282
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 10.3% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.3% 17.2% 1.3%
.500 or above in Conference 30.9% 51.7% 30.9%
Conference Champion 1.7% 3.4% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 15.2% 6.9% 15.2%
First Four2.3% 10.3% 2.3%
First Round1.0% 6.9% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Away) - 0.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 6
Quad 48 - 138 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 360   Mercyhurst L 73-78 70%     0 - 1 -22.7 -7.8 -14.9
  Nov 09, 2024 220   @ Longwood L 66-84 13%     0 - 2 -17.9 -8.0 -9.3
  Nov 16, 2024 351   NJIT W 81-69 63%     1 - 2 -3.6 +3.0 -6.7
  Nov 20, 2024 313   @ N.C. A&T L 83-86 26%     1 - 3 -8.6 -2.8 -5.5
  Nov 22, 2024 324   @ Buffalo L 73-82 28%     1 - 4 -15.2 -1.7 -13.6
  Nov 24, 2024 209   Towson L 60-64 26%     1 - 5 -9.4 -11.0 +1.4
  Nov 27, 2024 255   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 69-92 18%     1 - 6 -25.3 -14.5 -8.2
  Dec 07, 2024 265   @ Bowling Green L 81-102 19%     1 - 7 -23.7 -1.0 -21.0
  Dec 10, 2024 53   @ Xavier L 58-119 2%     1 - 8 -48.0 -11.0 -33.9
  Dec 15, 2024 269   Campbell W 86-76 37%     2 - 8 +1.2 +10.5 -9.2
  Dec 22, 2024 5   @ Iowa St. L 63-98 0.1%   
  Dec 29, 2024 114   @ Minnesota L 61-80 4%    
  Jan 04, 2025 262   South Carolina St. L 75-79 37%    
  Jan 06, 2025 258   NC Central L 75-79 37%    
  Jan 11, 2025 254   @ Howard L 75-85 18%    
  Jan 13, 2025 196   Norfolk St. L 73-80 25%    
  Jan 25, 2025 363   Coppin St. W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 01, 2025 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 80-75 67%    
  Feb 03, 2025 341   @ Delaware St. L 76-80 36%    
  Feb 15, 2025 262   @ South Carolina St. L 72-82 19%    
  Feb 17, 2025 258   @ NC Central L 72-82 19%    
  Feb 22, 2025 254   Howard L 78-82 36%    
  Feb 24, 2025 196   @ Norfolk St. L 70-83 11%    
  Mar 01, 2025 358   @ Maryland Eastern Shore L 77-78 46%    
  Mar 03, 2025 341   Delaware St. W 79-77 57%    
  Mar 06, 2025 363   @ Coppin St. W 74-71 61%    
Projected Record 8 - 18 5 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 6.6 3.8 0.3 0.0 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 5.3 10.0 5.2 0.5 0.0 21.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 7.5 10.4 4.4 0.4 24.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 6.8 7.0 2.2 0.2 18.4 7th
8th 0.3 1.7 3.2 2.3 0.6 0.0 8.1 8th
Total 0.3 1.7 5.3 10.6 15.8 18.2 17.1 13.7 9.0 4.9 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-2 95.4% 0.2    0.2 0.0
11-3 66.9% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
10-4 29.6% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
9-5 4.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 0.0
13-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-2 0.2% 26.9% 26.9% 16.0 0.1 0.2
11-3 0.8% 15.4% 15.4% 16.0 0.1 0.7
10-4 2.3% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 0.2 2.1
9-5 4.9% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.3 4.5
8-6 9.0% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.4 8.6
7-7 13.7% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.4 13.3
6-8 17.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.4 16.8
5-9 18.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 17.9
4-10 15.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 15.7
3-11 10.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.6
2-12 5.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.3
1-13 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.7
0-14 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 16.0 2.4 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%