Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.4#334
Expected Predictive Rating-12.0#328
Pace75.3#34
Improvement+3.6#42

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#244
First Shot-3.1#271
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#156
Layup/Dunks+0.0#191
2 Pt Jumpshots+8.7#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-10.6#363
Freethrows-1.2#264
Improvement+3.4#27

Defense
Total Defense-8.6#359
First Shot-9.1#363
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#134
Layups/Dunks-3.8#313
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#180
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#297
Freethrows-2.5#336
Improvement+0.1#177
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 3.0% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.7% 0.9% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 49.5% 56.5% 23.1%
Conference Champion 1.6% 1.8% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 5.9% 2.9% 17.3%
First Four2.7% 3.0% 1.8%
First Round1.0% 1.1% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Home) - 79.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 48 - 129 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 359   Mercyhurst L 73-78 72%     0 - 1 -22.4 -7.7 -14.7
  Nov 09, 2024 199   @ Longwood L 66-84 12%     0 - 2 -16.9 -8.6 -7.7
  Nov 16, 2024 355   NJIT W 81-69 68%     1 - 2 -4.3 +4.0 -8.3
  Nov 20, 2024 323   @ N.C. A&T L 83-86 32%     1 - 3 -9.6 -2.8 -6.5
  Nov 22, 2024 329   @ Buffalo L 73-82 36%     1 - 4 -16.8 -1.5 -15.4
  Nov 24, 2024 176   Towson L 60-64 22%     1 - 5 -7.4 -10.8 +3.3
  Nov 27, 2024 271   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 69-92 23%     1 - 6 -26.5 -16.4 -7.6
  Dec 07, 2024 285   @ Bowling Green L 81-102 25%     1 - 7 -25.4 -0.3 -23.3
  Dec 10, 2024 41   @ Xavier L 58-119 2%     1 - 8 -46.6 -9.6 -33.8
  Dec 15, 2024 252   Campbell W 86-76 37%     2 - 8 +2.2 +11.6 -9.4
  Dec 22, 2024 4   @ Iowa St. L 72-99 0.4%    2 - 9 -3.8 +7.7 -10.1
  Dec 29, 2024 98   @ Minnesota L 68-90 5%     2 - 10 -14.2 +4.3 -20.1
  Jan 04, 2025 243   South Carolina St. L 72-86 34%     2 - 11 0 - 1 -21.2 -6.1 -14.7
  Jan 07, 2025 306   NC Central W 102-98 2OT 47%     3 - 11 1 - 1 -6.7 +1.8 -9.3
  Jan 11, 2025 281   @ Howard L 95-100 25%     3 - 12 1 - 2 -9.2 +5.1 -13.7
  Jan 13, 2025 182   Norfolk St. W 78-74 23%     4 - 12 2 - 2 +0.4 +5.3 -4.8
  Jan 25, 2025 362   Coppin St. W 79-71 79%    
  Feb 01, 2025 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 82-75 74%    
  Feb 03, 2025 321   @ Delaware St. L 78-83 31%    
  Feb 15, 2025 243   @ South Carolina St. L 74-84 17%    
  Feb 17, 2025 306   @ NC Central L 76-82 27%    
  Feb 22, 2025 281   Howard L 83-85 44%    
  Feb 24, 2025 182   @ Norfolk St. L 71-84 10%    
  Mar 01, 2025 361   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 79-78 54%    
  Mar 03, 2025 321   Delaware St. W 81-80 53%    
  Mar 06, 2025 362   @ Coppin St. W 77-74 59%    
Projected Record 9 - 17 7 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 3.5 1.6 0.2 6.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.6 8.0 3.6 0.3 14.5 3rd
4th 0.1 3.6 12.1 6.1 0.4 22.4 4th
5th 0.1 3.2 12.0 7.1 0.5 22.9 5th
6th 0.0 2.5 10.9 7.2 0.6 0.0 21.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.0 2.5 0.2 8.8 7th
8th 0.3 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.1 8th
Total 0.3 2.3 8.2 16.7 23.1 22.4 16.0 7.9 2.6 0.6 0.0 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
11-3 75.4% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.0
10-4 29.2% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2
9-5 4.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.0% 0.0
11-3 0.6% 19.7% 19.7% 16.0 0.1 0.5
10-4 2.6% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 0.3 2.4
9-5 7.9% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.5 7.4
8-6 16.0% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.6 15.4
7-7 22.4% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.6 21.9
6-8 23.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.4 22.7
5-9 16.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 16.4
4-10 8.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.1
3-11 2.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.3
2-12 0.3% 0.3
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 16.0 2.8 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%