Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.4#11
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#119
Pace67.9#225
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#34
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+10.1#2
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.0% 3.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 12.5% 12.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 25.6% 25.6% 6.3%
Top 4 Seed 49.3% 49.3% 6.3%
Top 6 Seed 66.6% 66.6% 25.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.9% 86.9% 37.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.1% 85.2% 37.5%
Average Seed 4.5 4.5 6.2
.500 or above 94.2% 94.2% 68.8%
.500 or above in Conference 83.0% 83.1% 43.8%
Conference Champion 14.4% 14.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
First Four2.8% 2.8% 0.0%
First Round85.7% 85.7% 37.5%
Second Round69.5% 69.6% 18.8%
Sweet Sixteen43.0% 43.0% 6.3%
Elite Eight23.9% 24.0% 6.3%
Final Four13.0% 13.0% 6.3%
Championship Game6.9% 6.9% 0.0%
National Champion3.4% 3.4% 0.0%

Next Game: IU Indianapolis (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 8
Quad 26 - 114 - 9
Quad 32 - 016 - 10
Quad 46 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 83-44 99.8%    1 - 0 +16.1 -2.9 +16.8
  Nov 11, 2024 205   UMKC W 82-56 97%     2 - 0 +20.5 +11.9 +10.1
  Nov 18, 2024 362   IU Indianapolis W 86-52 99.9%   
  Nov 25, 2024 3   Auburn L 71-74 39%    
  Dec 04, 2024 29   Marquette W 74-67 73%    
  Dec 08, 2024 324   Jackson St. W 84-55 99%    
  Dec 12, 2024 45   @ Iowa W 79-76 61%    
  Dec 15, 2024 266   Nebraska Omaha W 82-57 99%    
  Dec 22, 2024 338   Morgan St. W 88-58 99.6%   
  Dec 30, 2024 76   @ Colorado W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 04, 2025 13   Baylor W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 07, 2025 51   Utah W 77-67 80%    
  Jan 11, 2025 14   @ Texas Tech L 69-70 44%    
  Jan 15, 2025 5   Kansas W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 18, 2025 57   @ West Virginia W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 21, 2025 66   Central Florida W 75-64 83%    
  Jan 25, 2025 72   @ Arizona St. W 72-66 69%    
  Jan 27, 2025 8   @ Arizona L 73-77 36%    
  Feb 01, 2025 42   Kansas St. W 73-64 77%    
  Feb 03, 2025 5   @ Kansas L 69-75 32%    
  Feb 08, 2025 53   TCU W 77-67 81%    
  Feb 11, 2025 66   @ Central Florida W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 15, 2025 22   Cincinnati W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 18, 2025 76   Colorado W 74-62 84%    
  Feb 22, 2025 2   @ Houston L 61-67 29%    
  Feb 25, 2025 87   @ Oklahoma St. W 74-67 71%    
  Mar 01, 2025 8   Arizona W 76-74 56%    
  Mar 04, 2025 32   BYU W 76-69 73%    
  Mar 08, 2025 42   @ Kansas St. W 70-67 59%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.4 4.3 3.2 1.4 0.3 14.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.7 4.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.1 3.5 1.0 0.1 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.8 3.2 0.7 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.4 3.1 0.7 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.4 3.3 0.7 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.0 1.0 0.1 7.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 3.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 4.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.8 4.5 6.1 8.3 9.5 11.5 11.9 11.9 10.3 8.4 6.0 3.5 1.4 0.3 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 99.5% 1.4    1.3 0.1
18-2 91.6% 3.2    2.7 0.5 0.0
17-3 71.6% 4.3    2.6 1.4 0.2
16-4 39.8% 3.4    1.4 1.5 0.5 0.1
15-5 13.7% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.4% 14.4 8.7 4.2 1.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 61.3% 38.7% 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.4% 100.0% 47.8% 52.2% 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.5% 100.0% 35.3% 64.7% 1.3 2.6 0.8 0.1 100.0%
17-3 6.0% 100.0% 28.1% 71.9% 1.5 3.3 2.2 0.4 0.1 100.0%
16-4 8.4% 100.0% 24.8% 75.2% 2.0 2.8 3.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 100.0%
15-5 10.3% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 2.7 1.5 3.3 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.9% 100.0% 13.9% 86.1% 3.4 0.7 2.2 3.6 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.9% 99.9% 9.0% 90.9% 4.5 0.2 0.6 2.4 3.2 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 11.5% 99.3% 5.2% 94.1% 5.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 2.8 2.5 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
11-9 9.5% 96.2% 3.2% 93.0% 6.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.4 96.1%
10-10 8.3% 87.8% 2.7% 85.1% 8.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.1 1.0 87.4%
9-11 6.1% 61.6% 1.3% 60.3% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.3 61.1%
8-12 4.5% 28.7% 1.0% 27.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 3.2 28.0%
7-13 2.8% 7.8% 0.5% 7.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.6 7.4%
6-14 1.8% 1.7% 0.4% 1.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.3%
5-15 1.0% 1.0
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 86.9% 11.6% 75.2% 4.5 12.5 13.0 12.4 11.3 9.5 7.8 6.5 4.7 3.2 2.6 2.7 0.6 0.0 13.1 85.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0