Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.5#5
Expected Predictive Rating+22.2#4
Pace71.6#101
Improvement+0.3#164

Offense
Total Offense+11.2#7
First Shot+9.0#7
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#62
Layup/Dunks+4.4#49
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#46
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#216
Freethrows+3.3#33
Improvement-0.1#180

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#7
First Shot+6.4#23
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#50
Layups/Dunks+5.9#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#326
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#128
Freethrows+1.3#95
Improvement+0.4#161
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 8.3% 8.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 35.5% 35.5% 17.2%
Top 2 Seed 64.8% 64.8% 31.0%
Top 4 Seed 90.3% 90.3% 75.9%
Top 6 Seed 97.3% 97.3% 96.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 99.7% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.7% 99.7% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.4 2.4 3.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.2% 98.2% 100.0%
Conference Champion 39.7% 39.7% 24.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round99.7% 99.7% 100.0%
Second Round94.3% 94.3% 86.2%
Sweet Sixteen68.7% 68.7% 48.3%
Elite Eight43.5% 43.5% 27.6%
Final Four25.3% 25.3% 13.8%
Championship Game13.9% 13.9% 6.9%
National Champion7.4% 7.4% 3.4%

Next Game: Morgan St. (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b6 - 111 - 6
Quad 27 - 118 - 7
Quad 32 - 021 - 7
Quad 46 - 027 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 83-44 99.9%    1 - 0 +14.8 -3.8 +16.5
  Nov 11, 2024 271   UMKC W 82-56 99%     2 - 0 +17.1 +10.4 +8.2
  Nov 18, 2024 353   IU Indianapolis W 87-52 99.6%    3 - 0 +19.2 +4.3 +14.7
  Nov 25, 2024 1   Auburn L 81-83 38%     3 - 1 +20.7 +14.2 +6.5
  Nov 26, 2024 38   Dayton W 89-84 77%     4 - 1 +16.8 +21.3 -4.5
  Nov 27, 2024 73   Colorado W 99-71 87%     5 - 1 +35.5 +26.1 +8.2
  Dec 04, 2024 13   Marquette W 81-70 76%     6 - 1 +23.3 +14.2 +9.1
  Dec 08, 2024 311   Jackson St. W 100-58 99%     7 - 1 +30.8 +17.9 +10.4
  Dec 12, 2024 43   @ Iowa W 89-80 70%     8 - 1 +23.1 +18.7 +4.2
  Dec 15, 2024 294   Nebraska Omaha W 83-51 99%     9 - 1 +22.0 +5.7 +16.6
  Dec 22, 2024 349   Morgan St. W 98-63 99.9%   
  Dec 30, 2024 73   @ Colorado W 79-70 80%    
  Jan 04, 2025 12   Baylor W 80-73 73%    
  Jan 07, 2025 66   Utah W 85-71 90%    
  Jan 11, 2025 25   @ Texas Tech W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 15, 2025 10   Kansas W 79-74 68%    
  Jan 18, 2025 42   @ West Virginia W 76-71 69%    
  Jan 21, 2025 82   Central Florida W 83-67 93%    
  Jan 25, 2025 61   @ Arizona St. W 79-72 75%    
  Jan 27, 2025 21   @ Arizona W 81-79 58%    
  Feb 01, 2025 64   Kansas St. W 82-68 90%    
  Feb 03, 2025 10   @ Kansas L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 86   TCU W 81-65 93%    
  Feb 11, 2025 82   @ Central Florida W 80-70 81%    
  Feb 15, 2025 27   Cincinnati W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 18, 2025 73   Colorado W 82-67 91%    
  Feb 22, 2025 6   @ Houston L 67-69 41%    
  Feb 25, 2025 85   @ Oklahoma St. W 84-74 82%    
  Mar 01, 2025 21   Arizona W 84-76 77%    
  Mar 04, 2025 44   BYU W 84-72 85%    
  Mar 08, 2025 64   @ Kansas St. W 79-71 76%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.6 8.5 11.6 9.3 4.8 1.2 39.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.9 7.8 7.0 2.9 0.5 0.0 22.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.7 3.9 0.9 0.1 13.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.0 2.6 0.5 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.9 6.5 9.9 13.3 15.8 16.4 14.5 9.8 4.8 1.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
19-1 99.4% 4.8    4.6 0.2
18-2 94.8% 9.3    8.2 1.1 0.0
17-3 79.7% 11.6    8.1 3.2 0.3 0.0
16-4 52.0% 8.5    4.1 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
15-5 22.9% 3.6    1.0 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-6 4.9% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 39.7% 39.7 27.2 9.7 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.2% 100.0% 54.2% 45.8% 1.1 1.1 0.1 100.0%
19-1 4.8% 100.0% 47.6% 52.4% 1.1 4.1 0.7 0.0 100.0%
18-2 9.8% 100.0% 41.7% 58.3% 1.2 7.5 2.2 0.1 100.0%
17-3 14.5% 100.0% 35.8% 64.2% 1.4 9.4 4.8 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-4 16.4% 100.0% 30.8% 69.2% 1.7 7.3 7.3 1.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 15.8% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 2.1 4.2 7.2 3.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.3% 100.0% 21.2% 78.8% 2.6 1.5 4.6 4.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 9.9% 100.0% 15.1% 84.9% 3.3 0.3 1.8 3.8 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 6.5% 99.9% 10.5% 89.5% 4.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 3.9% 100.0% 6.7% 93.3% 4.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 2.1% 99.6% 5.9% 93.7% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
9-11 1.1% 98.7% 2.6% 96.1% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.7%
8-12 0.4% 89.0% 3.8% 85.2% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 88.6%
7-13 0.2% 67.0% 1.8% 65.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 66.4%
6-14 0.1% 18.2% 2.3% 15.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16.3%
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.7% 26.8% 73.0% 2.4 35.5 29.3 16.6 9.0 4.5 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 99.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.1 92.1 7.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 87.1 12.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 89.2 10.8