Auburn
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+23.1#2
Expected Predictive Rating+30.2#1
Pace70.4#130
Improvement-2.4#292

Offense
Total Offense+15.3#1
First Shot+12.3#2
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#27
Layup/Dunks+6.2#16
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#110
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#54
Freethrows+0.5#144
Improvement-3.0#328

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#20
First Shot+6.2#28
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#59
Layups/Dunks+2.1#96
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#17
Freethrows+0.2#172
Improvement+0.6#152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 44.4% 46.8% 37.0%
#1 Seed 86.2% 87.9% 80.8%
Top 2 Seed 99.4% 99.6% 98.5%
Top 4 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.1 1.1 1.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 75.1% 80.5% 58.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.4% 99.4% 99.3%
Sweet Sixteen82.4% 83.0% 80.6%
Elite Eight61.6% 62.5% 58.8%
Final Four42.6% 43.9% 38.6%
Championship Game27.2% 28.3% 23.8%
National Champion16.8% 18.1% 12.9%

Next Game: Tennessee (Home) - 75.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a11 - 411 - 4
Quad 1b6 - 018 - 5
Quad 25 - 022 - 5
Quad 31 - 024 - 5
Quad 45 - 029 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 211   Vermont W 94-43 99%     1 - 0 +45.6 +22.5 +23.3
  Nov 09, 2024 3   Houston W 74-69 56%     2 - 0 +26.6 +22.4 +4.8
  Nov 13, 2024 159   Kent St. W 79-56 98%     3 - 0 +20.5 +17.1 +5.9
  Nov 18, 2024 163   North Alabama W 102-69 98%     4 - 0 +30.4 +20.9 +7.7
  Nov 25, 2024 4   Iowa St. W 83-81 60%     5 - 0 +22.5 +19.7 +2.8
  Nov 26, 2024 26   North Carolina W 85-72 81%     6 - 0 +26.8 +14.6 +11.5
  Nov 27, 2024 43   Memphis W 90-76 86%     7 - 0 +25.5 +26.9 -0.8
  Dec 04, 2024 1   @ Duke L 78-84 37%     7 - 1 +20.5 +26.9 -7.0
  Dec 08, 2024 209   Richmond W 98-54 99%     8 - 1 +38.8 +19.9 +16.9
  Dec 14, 2024 36   Ohio St. W 91-53 84%     9 - 1 +50.6 +30.9 +22.4
  Dec 17, 2024 280   Georgia St. W 100-59 99%     10 - 1 +31.3 +16.4 +12.5
  Dec 21, 2024 10   Purdue W 87-69 70%     11 - 1 +35.6 +24.6 +11.7
  Dec 30, 2024 267   Monmouth W 87-58 99%     12 - 1 +20.3 +12.1 +8.7
  Jan 04, 2025 29   Missouri W 84-68 88%     13 - 1 1 - 0 +26.6 +13.7 +12.8
  Jan 07, 2025 38   @ Texas W 87-82 78%     14 - 1 2 - 0 +19.8 +19.4 +0.2
  Jan 11, 2025 82   @ South Carolina W 66-63 89%     15 - 1 3 - 0 +12.6 +10.2 +2.8
  Jan 14, 2025 23   Mississippi St. W 88-66 84%     16 - 1 4 - 0 +34.4 +18.7 +15.4
  Jan 18, 2025 34   @ Georgia W 70-68 76%     17 - 1 5 - 0 +17.5 +11.1 +6.6
  Jan 25, 2025 8   Tennessee W 76-69 76%    
  Jan 29, 2025 63   @ LSU W 84-72 86%    
  Feb 01, 2025 19   @ Mississippi W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 04, 2025 45   Oklahoma W 86-71 92%    
  Feb 08, 2025 5   Florida W 84-79 70%    
  Feb 11, 2025 48   @ Vanderbilt W 86-76 80%    
  Feb 15, 2025 7   @ Alabama W 88-87 53%    
  Feb 19, 2025 46   Arkansas W 86-71 91%    
  Feb 22, 2025 34   Georgia W 81-68 89%    
  Feb 26, 2025 19   Mississippi W 81-71 83%    
  Mar 01, 2025 15   @ Kentucky W 89-85 63%    
  Mar 04, 2025 21   @ Texas A&M W 77-72 67%    
  Mar 08, 2025 7   Alabama W 91-85 73%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.4 12.2 21.4 21.5 13.3 4.1 75.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 5.4 5.5 1.5 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 3.0 0.4 0.0 5.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.6 0.0 2.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.1 5.6 11.4 18.0 22.9 21.6 13.3 4.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.1    4.1
17-1 100.0% 13.3    13.3
16-2 99.8% 21.5    20.6 1.0
15-3 93.5% 21.4    16.7 4.4 0.3
14-4 67.4% 12.2    5.0 5.3 1.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 21.1% 2.4    0.4 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 75.1% 75.1 60.0 11.7 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.1% 100.0% 52.7% 47.3% 1.0 4.0 0.1 100.0%
17-1 13.3% 100.0% 45.7% 54.3% 1.0 12.7 0.6 100.0%
16-2 21.6% 100.0% 41.7% 58.3% 1.1 20.2 1.4 100.0%
15-3 22.9% 100.0% 38.0% 62.0% 1.1 20.9 2.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 18.0% 100.0% 32.5% 67.5% 1.2 15.2 2.8 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.4% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 1.3 8.4 2.9 0.1 100.0%
12-6 5.6% 100.0% 20.1% 79.9% 1.4 3.4 2.0 0.1 100.0%
11-7 2.1% 100.0% 13.2% 86.8% 1.6 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 0.7% 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 1.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.2% 100.0% 9.1% 90.9% 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
8-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 36.3% 63.7% 1.1 86.2 13.2 0.6 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 1.0 97.7 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 100.0% 1.0 96.3 3.7