Memphis
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.4#34
Expected Predictive Rating+20.1#6
Pace76.8#30
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#28
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#61
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.6% 1.8% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 4.3% 4.6% 1.1%
Top 4 Seed 12.8% 13.8% 3.9%
Top 6 Seed 23.5% 24.9% 9.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.6% 63.6% 41.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 43.7% 45.9% 25.0%
Average Seed 7.5 7.4 8.8
.500 or above 95.2% 96.3% 85.3%
.500 or above in Conference 95.1% 95.6% 89.7%
Conference Champion 44.4% 45.8% 31.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four6.2% 6.3% 5.8%
First Round58.5% 60.5% 39.3%
Second Round34.5% 36.1% 19.6%
Sweet Sixteen15.2% 16.0% 7.1%
Elite Eight6.4% 6.8% 2.5%
Final Four2.8% 3.0% 0.9%
Championship Game1.1% 1.2% 0.5%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.1%

Next Game: Ohio (Home) - 90.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 3
Quad 26 - 39 - 6
Quad 310 - 219 - 9
Quad 44 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 71   Missouri W 83-75 73%     1 - 0 +12.8 +7.0 +5.5
  Nov 09, 2024 94   @ UNLV W 80-74 61%     2 - 0 +14.5 +8.9 +5.5
  Nov 15, 2024 158   Ohio W 87-73 91%    
  Nov 21, 2024 69   San Francisco W 78-75 62%    
  Nov 25, 2024 1   Connecticut L 69-78 20%    
  Dec 04, 2024 92   Louisiana Tech W 79-70 78%    
  Dec 08, 2024 115   Arkansas St. W 84-73 83%    
  Dec 14, 2024 44   @ Clemson L 75-77 43%    
  Dec 18, 2024 78   @ Virginia W 66-65 53%    
  Dec 21, 2024 26   Mississippi St. W 80-78 56%    
  Dec 28, 2024 61   Mississippi W 79-73 70%    
  Jan 02, 2025 74   @ Florida Atlantic W 87-86 52%    
  Jan 05, 2025 73   North Texas W 71-64 72%    
  Jan 11, 2025 154   East Carolina W 80-66 88%    
  Jan 16, 2025 112   @ Temple W 79-74 65%    
  Jan 19, 2025 133   @ Charlotte W 76-69 72%    
  Jan 23, 2025 86   Wichita St. W 82-74 75%    
  Jan 26, 2025 101   UAB W 85-76 79%    
  Jan 30, 2025 145   @ Tulane W 87-80 74%    
  Feb 02, 2025 191   @ Rice W 79-69 81%    
  Feb 05, 2025 142   Tulsa W 88-75 87%    
  Feb 09, 2025 112   Temple W 82-71 82%    
  Feb 13, 2025 120   @ South Florida W 79-74 67%    
  Feb 16, 2025 86   @ Wichita St. W 79-77 56%    
  Feb 23, 2025 74   Florida Atlantic W 90-83 71%    
  Feb 26, 2025 191   Rice W 82-66 91%    
  Mar 02, 2025 101   @ UAB W 82-79 61%    
  Mar 04, 2025 238   @ Texas San Antonio W 88-76 84%    
  Mar 07, 2025 120   South Florida W 82-71 83%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.7 7.5 11.2 11.5 8.0 3.2 44.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.6 6.5 3.0 0.6 0.0 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 4.9 3.6 1.0 0.1 12.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 7.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.2 1.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.5 3.9 5.9 8.5 10.8 13.4 15.0 14.3 12.2 8.0 3.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.2    3.2
17-1 99.6% 8.0    7.7 0.3
16-2 94.9% 11.5    9.9 1.6 0.0
15-3 78.5% 11.2    8.0 3.0 0.3 0.0
14-4 50.0% 7.5    3.5 3.1 0.8 0.1
13-5 19.9% 2.7    0.7 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 44.4% 44.4 32.9 9.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.2% 99.0% 65.8% 33.2% 2.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.9%
17-1 8.0% 97.8% 58.5% 39.3% 4.0 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 94.7%
16-2 12.2% 94.7% 48.6% 46.0% 5.8 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 89.6%
15-3 14.3% 87.2% 41.8% 45.4% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.3 0.1 1.8 78.1%
14-4 15.0% 74.5% 32.9% 41.5% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 3.8 61.9%
13-5 13.4% 57.3% 27.2% 30.1% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.8 0.6 0.0 5.7 41.3%
12-6 10.8% 40.4% 21.3% 19.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 0.7 0.0 6.4 24.3%
11-7 8.5% 25.6% 14.7% 10.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.3 12.7%
10-8 5.9% 13.2% 8.7% 4.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.1 4.9%
9-9 3.9% 7.6% 6.2% 1.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.6 1.5%
8-10 2.5% 4.0% 3.7% 0.3% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.3%
7-11 1.3% 4.3% 4.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-12 0.6% 2.1% 2.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 61.6% 31.7% 29.9% 7.5 1.6 2.6 3.6 5.0 5.1 5.5 4.8 5.1 6.7 7.8 10.7 2.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.4 43.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.5 60.3 32.9 6.8