Memphis
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.0#38
Expected Predictive Rating+16.9#19
Pace76.1#29
Improvement-3.2#316

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#62
First Shot+3.1#89
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#79
Layup/Dunks+0.0#180
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#179
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#134
Freethrows+2.1#65
Improvement-5.3#359

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#28
First Shot+6.8#19
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#158
Layups/Dunks+4.5#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#232
Freethrows+1.0#109
Improvement+2.1#71
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.2% 3.8% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 10.9% 12.8% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 82.4% 84.0% 74.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 65.9% 68.5% 52.8%
Average Seed 8.8 8.7 9.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 76.3% 80.1% 56.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.9% 8.1% 13.4%
First Round77.9% 80.0% 66.8%
Second Round36.8% 38.7% 26.3%
Sweet Sixteen9.7% 10.5% 5.2%
Elite Eight3.0% 3.3% 1.7%
Final Four0.9% 0.9% 0.6%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Away) - 84.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 14 - 2
Quad 27 - 111 - 3
Quad 311 - 322 - 6
Quad 46 - 028 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 33   Missouri W 83-75 55%     1 - 0 +18.8 +9.8 +8.5
  Nov 09, 2024 98   @ UNLV W 80-74 67%     2 - 0 +13.4 +9.3 +4.0
  Nov 15, 2024 165   Ohio W 94-70 91%     3 - 0 +21.5 +11.9 +7.8
  Nov 21, 2024 85   San Francisco W 68-64 69%     4 - 0 +10.9 -1.7 +12.6
  Nov 25, 2024 29   Connecticut W 99-97 OT 41%     5 - 0 +16.3 +23.7 -7.6
  Nov 26, 2024 12   Michigan St. W 71-63 30%     6 - 0 +25.5 +14.6 +11.7
  Nov 27, 2024 2   Auburn L 76-90 15%     6 - 1 +9.0 +15.4 -7.0
  Dec 04, 2024 112   Louisiana Tech W 81-71 85%     7 - 1 +10.9 +9.2 +1.8
  Dec 08, 2024 95   Arkansas St. L 72-85 80%     7 - 2 -10.0 -8.8 +0.7
  Dec 14, 2024 31   @ Clemson W 87-82 OT 34%     8 - 2 +21.2 +15.9 +4.9
  Dec 18, 2024 103   @ Virginia W 64-62 70%     9 - 2 +8.6 +2.3 +6.4
  Dec 21, 2024 26   Mississippi St. L 66-79 49%     9 - 3 -0.8 -3.8 +3.4
  Dec 28, 2024 24   Mississippi W 87-70 49%     10 - 3 +29.3 +14.3 +13.6
  Jan 02, 2025 108   @ Florida Atlantic W 90-62 71%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +34.3 +14.1 +19.1
  Jan 05, 2025 64   North Texas W 68-64 71%     12 - 3 2 - 0 +10.4 +5.1 +5.6
  Jan 11, 2025 150   East Carolina W 74-70 89%     13 - 3 3 - 0 +2.4 -4.4 +6.6
  Jan 16, 2025 124   @ Temple L 81-88 76%     13 - 4 3 - 1 -2.3 +6.3 -8.3
  Jan 19, 2025 215   @ Charlotte W 77-68 87%     14 - 4 4 - 1 +8.7 +1.8 +6.6
  Jan 23, 2025 137   Wichita St. W 61-53 88%     15 - 4 5 - 1 +7.1 -10.7 +18.0
  Jan 26, 2025 100   UAB W 100-77 83%     16 - 4 6 - 1 +24.9 +12.0 +10.1
  Jan 30, 2025 141   @ Tulane W 68-56 78%     17 - 4 7 - 1 +16.0 +1.9 +14.9
  Feb 02, 2025 201   @ Rice W 78-67 84%    
  Feb 05, 2025 246   Tulsa W 84-65 97%    
  Feb 09, 2025 124   Temple W 84-72 89%    
  Feb 13, 2025 169   @ South Florida W 80-70 81%    
  Feb 16, 2025 137   @ Wichita St. W 81-73 75%    
  Feb 23, 2025 108   Florida Atlantic W 86-75 86%    
  Feb 26, 2025 201   Rice W 81-65 94%    
  Mar 02, 2025 100   @ UAB W 84-79 66%    
  Mar 04, 2025 216   @ Texas San Antonio W 88-75 87%    
  Mar 07, 2025 169   South Florida W 82-67 92%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 5.1 18.0 30.5 22.1 76.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.7 7.3 7.9 2.8 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.3 4.3 12.8 25.9 33.3 22.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 22.1    20.1 2.0
16-2 91.6% 30.5    23.0 7.5 0.0
15-3 69.6% 18.0    10.0 7.6 0.4 0.0
14-4 39.6% 5.1    1.6 2.7 0.7 0.1
13-5 13.1% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 76.3% 76.3 54.8 20.1 1.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 22.1% 95.4% 57.0% 38.4% 6.6 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.6 2.8 1.0 0.2 1.0 89.4%
16-2 33.3% 88.2% 51.3% 36.9% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 6.0 10.0 8.3 2.1 0.0 3.9 75.8%
15-3 25.9% 77.7% 43.7% 34.0% 9.9 0.1 1.2 4.8 9.0 5.0 0.1 5.8 60.5%
14-4 12.8% 67.1% 42.0% 25.0% 10.4 0.1 0.7 3.3 4.4 0.1 4.2 43.2%
13-5 4.3% 57.7% 35.7% 22.0% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.1 1.8 34.2%
12-6 1.3% 46.9% 34.6% 12.3% 11.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 18.8%
11-7 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.1% 0.0 0.1
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 82.4% 48.5% 33.9% 8.8 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.6 4.2 5.7 10.9 18.3 22.4 13.8 0.4 17.6 65.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.6% 100.0% 5.5 0.3 4.4 20.2 26.5 25.8 15.5 5.1 1.9 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.6% 92.2% 8.1 2.4 5.2 18.5 32.0 25.1 7.8 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.9% 86.0% 8.5 1.0 2.0 10.6 29.7 29.4 10.9 2.4