Memphis
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.4#49
Expected Predictive Rating+16.7#15
Pace75.1#31
Improvement-4.7#336

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#64
First Shot+3.1#94
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#77
Layup/Dunks+0.0#179
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#139
Freethrows+2.1#62
Improvement-4.1#347

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#35
First Shot+6.4#24
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#166
Layups/Dunks+4.3#47
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#22
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#243
Freethrows+0.9#113
Improvement-0.6#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.6% 3.1% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.6% 94.4% 89.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 87.0% 88.5% 80.0%
Average Seed 8.9 8.8 9.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 99.3% 100.0% 95.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.9% 2.1% 6.9%
First Round92.1% 93.4% 85.5%
Second Round35.5% 36.5% 30.3%
Sweet Sixteen5.6% 5.8% 4.9%
Elite Eight1.7% 1.8% 1.2%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Away) - 83.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 13 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 16 - 2
Quad 26 - 111 - 3
Quad 311 - 322 - 6
Quad 46 - 028 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 13   Missouri W 83-75 36%     1 - 0 +23.0 +9.4 +13.2
  Nov 09, 2024 98   @ UNLV W 80-74 63%     2 - 0 +13.9 +12.4 +1.4
  Nov 15, 2024 163   Ohio W 94-70 90%     3 - 0 +21.2 +12.2 +7.1
  Nov 21, 2024 71   @ San Francisco W 68-64 53%     4 - 0 +14.7 +1.0 +13.6
  Nov 25, 2024 30   Connecticut W 99-97 OT 40%     5 - 0 +16.1 +24.0 -8.1
  Nov 26, 2024 8   Michigan St. W 71-63 24%     6 - 0 +26.9 +17.3 +10.5
  Nov 27, 2024 2   Auburn L 76-90 11%     6 - 1 +11.1 +16.3 -5.8
  Dec 04, 2024 116   Louisiana Tech W 81-71 85%     7 - 1 +10.3 +9.3 +1.2
  Dec 08, 2024 90   Arkansas St. L 72-85 79%     7 - 2 -10.0 -8.4 +0.3
  Dec 14, 2024 17   @ Clemson W 87-82 OT 23%     8 - 2 +24.3 +17.7 +6.3
  Dec 18, 2024 97   @ Virginia W 64-62 63%     9 - 2 +10.2 +0.4 +9.9
  Dec 21, 2024 32   Mississippi St. L 66-79 51%     9 - 3 -1.9 -4.1 +2.6
  Dec 28, 2024 29   Mississippi W 87-70 50%     10 - 3 +28.4 +12.7 +14.3
  Jan 02, 2025 108   @ Florida Atlantic W 90-62 69%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +34.3 +14.4 +18.8
  Jan 05, 2025 70   North Texas W 68-64 72%     12 - 3 2 - 0 +9.3 +5.1 +4.5
  Jan 11, 2025 154   East Carolina W 74-70 90%     13 - 3 3 - 0 +1.7 -6.5 +7.9
  Jan 16, 2025 162   @ Temple L 81-88 80%     13 - 4 3 - 1 -4.3 +3.9 -7.9
  Jan 19, 2025 236   @ Charlotte W 77-68 88%     14 - 4 4 - 1 +7.4 +0.4 +6.8
  Jan 23, 2025 117   Wichita St. W 61-53 85%     15 - 4 5 - 1 +8.1 -9.6 +17.9
  Jan 26, 2025 102   UAB W 100-77 82%     16 - 4 6 - 1 +24.8 +10.7 +11.3
  Jan 30, 2025 147   @ Tulane W 68-56 78%     17 - 4 7 - 1 +15.5 +1.2 +15.1
  Feb 02, 2025 183   @ Rice W 86-83 83%     18 - 4 8 - 1 +4.3 +9.7 -5.5
  Feb 05, 2025 262   Tulsa W 83-71 96%     19 - 4 9 - 1 +3.8 +16.2 -11.1
  Feb 09, 2025 162   Temple W 90-82 90%     20 - 4 10 - 1 +5.2 +11.6 -6.5
  Feb 13, 2025 182   @ South Florida W 80-65 83%     21 - 4 11 - 1 +16.4 +1.9 +13.1
  Feb 16, 2025 117   @ Wichita St. L 79-84 OT 71%     21 - 5 11 - 2 +0.6 +1.9 -0.9
  Feb 23, 2025 108   Florida Atlantic W 84-65 84%     22 - 5 12 - 2 +19.9 +9.0 +10.8
  Feb 26, 2025 183   Rice W 84-72 92%     23 - 5 13 - 2 +7.9 +8.1 -0.2
  Mar 02, 2025 102   @ UAB W 88-81 66%     24 - 5 14 - 2 +14.2 +8.9 +4.9
  Mar 04, 2025 190   @ Texas San Antonio W 85-75 84%    
  Mar 07, 2025 182   South Florida W 82-67 93%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 20.8 78.0 99.3 1st
2nd 0.7 0.7 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 1.2 20.8 78.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 78.0    78.0
15-3 100.0% 20.8    7.6 13.3
14-4 37.4% 0.4    0.0 0.3 0.1
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 99.3% 99.3 85.6 13.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 78.0% 94.7% 51.6% 43.1% 8.7 0.5 2.1 6.9 18.6 29.4 14.7 1.7 4.2 89.0%
15-3 20.8% 90.7% 48.5% 42.1% 9.6 0.0 0.0 1.3 6.8 8.4 2.3 1.9 81.9%
14-4 1.2% 76.5% 49.6% 27.0% 10.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 53.4%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 93.6% 50.9% 42.7% 8.9 0.5 2.1 6.9 19.9 36.4 23.5 4.3 6.4 87.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 40.2% 100.0% 8.2 1.2 5.2 16.5 35.2 34.0 7.6 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 16.8% 91.4% 9.2 0.2 0.8 14.3 43.6 29.2 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.6% 88.1% 9.3 0.9 11.0 43.0 29.1 4.0
Lose Out 0.2% 42.9% 10.0 4.8 33.3 4.8