Ohio
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#161
Expected Predictive Rating-3.2#225
Pace72.1#92
Improvement+0.5#147

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#120
First Shot+3.4#89
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#261
Layup/Dunks+1.2#131
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#198
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#76
Freethrows-0.7#228
Improvement-1.0#267

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#247
First Shot-3.3#287
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#95
Layups/Dunks-2.8#277
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#260
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#199
Freethrows+0.4#159
Improvement+1.5#67
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 15.6% 11.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.8
.500 or above 73.4% 78.5% 54.9%
.500 or above in Conference 84.2% 85.9% 78.3%
Conference Champion 15.9% 17.2% 11.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 0.9%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 1.1%
First Round14.4% 15.4% 10.9%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Home) - 78.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 74 - 11
Quad 413 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 112   @ James Madison L 78-88 26%     0 - 1 -3.4 +6.0 -9.2
  Nov 09, 2024 182   UNC Asheville W 82-76 65%     1 - 1 +1.9 +3.3 -1.5
  Nov 12, 2024 160   @ Illinois St. L 75-85 38%     1 - 2 -7.1 +8.7 -16.7
  Nov 15, 2024 34   @ Memphis L 70-94 8%     1 - 3 -8.7 -2.6 -4.3
  Nov 21, 2024 130   Middle Tennessee L 81-83 OT 42%     1 - 4 -0.2 -2.2 +2.3
  Nov 22, 2024 312   Portland W 85-73 78%     2 - 4 +3.7 -0.6 +3.0
  Nov 24, 2024 138   Texas St. L 65-74 45%     2 - 5 -7.8 -0.2 -8.7
  Nov 30, 2024 259   Robert Morris W 84-68 79%     3 - 5 +7.5 +10.1 -2.6
  Dec 07, 2024 279   Morehead St. W 88-76 80%     4 - 5 +2.8 +6.8 -4.5
  Dec 14, 2024 186   @ Marshall L 70-79 43%     4 - 6 -7.3 -3.3 -3.7
  Dec 18, 2024 261   Austin Peay W 73-65 78%    
  Jan 04, 2025 219   @ Central Michigan L 76-77 49%    
  Jan 07, 2025 324   @ Buffalo W 81-75 71%    
  Jan 11, 2025 344   Northern Illinois W 83-69 90%    
  Jan 14, 2025 285   Ball St. W 80-70 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 146   @ Akron L 80-84 36%    
  Jan 21, 2025 317   @ Eastern Michigan W 80-74 70%    
  Jan 25, 2025 115   Kent St. L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 28, 2025 206   Toledo W 85-80 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 195   @ Miami (OH) L 74-76 44%    
  Feb 04, 2025 295   Western Michigan W 82-72 81%    
  Feb 11, 2025 265   @ Bowling Green W 80-77 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 115   @ Kent St. L 67-73 28%    
  Feb 18, 2025 219   Central Michigan W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 22, 2025 146   Akron W 83-81 58%    
  Feb 25, 2025 295   @ Western Michigan W 79-75 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 195   Miami (OH) W 77-73 66%    
  Mar 04, 2025 317   Eastern Michigan W 83-71 85%    
  Mar 07, 2025 206   @ Toledo L 82-83 47%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.5 4.7 2.6 1.0 0.1 15.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.9 6.5 4.4 1.1 0.1 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.4 7.0 3.3 0.5 0.0 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.6 6.4 2.8 0.3 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.8 2.9 0.3 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.4 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 4.5 7.1 10.1 13.2 14.8 14.4 12.7 9.4 5.8 2.7 1.0 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 96.7% 2.6    2.3 0.3
15-3 81.4% 4.7    3.2 1.4 0.1
14-4 48.0% 4.5    2.0 1.9 0.6 0.0
13-5 20.0% 2.5    0.5 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.9% 15.9 9.2 4.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 51.4% 51.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.0% 40.7% 40.7% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6
16-2 2.7% 36.5% 36.5% 13.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7
15-3 5.8% 32.1% 32.1% 13.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 3.9
14-4 9.4% 25.9% 25.9% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 7.0
13-5 12.7% 20.2% 20.2% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.1 10.1
12-6 14.4% 14.8% 14.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.2 12.3
11-7 14.8% 12.4% 12.4% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 12.9
10-8 13.2% 10.0% 10.0% 15.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 11.9
9-9 10.1% 6.9% 6.9% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 9.4
8-10 7.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.8
7-11 4.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 4.4
6-12 2.5% 2.5
5-13 1.1% 1.1
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.7 4.8 1.9 85.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.3 5.9 2.9 2.9 32.4 52.9 2.9