Ohio
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#147
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#183
Pace74.2#54
Improvement+2.0#89

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#134
First Shot+3.2#90
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#278
Layup/Dunks+0.2#173
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#58
Freethrows-0.6#217
Improvement-0.1#187

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#191
First Shot-1.7#231
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#86
Layups/Dunks-1.5#230
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#238
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#198
Freethrows+0.2#175
Improvement+2.2#68
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.4% 20.6% 16.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 92.5% 95.3% 84.1%
.500 or above in Conference 97.7% 98.9% 94.1%
Conference Champion 18.7% 22.3% 8.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round19.3% 20.5% 15.8%
Second Round1.1% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Away) - 74.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 34 - 74 - 11
Quad 415 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 149   @ James Madison L 78-88 40%     0 - 1 -6.2 +5.6 -11.6
  Nov 09, 2024 187   UNC Asheville W 82-76 69%     1 - 1 +2.1 -0.5 +2.3
  Nov 12, 2024 144   @ Illinois St. L 75-85 39%     1 - 2 -5.9 +7.7 -14.6
  Nov 15, 2024 43   @ Memphis L 70-94 11%     1 - 3 -9.7 -1.0 -6.8
  Nov 21, 2024 111   Middle Tennessee L 81-83 OT 42%     1 - 4 +1.1 -1.2 +2.6
  Nov 22, 2024 308   Portland W 85-73 81%     2 - 4 +3.7 -2.8 +5.2
  Nov 24, 2024 167   Texas St. L 65-74 55%     2 - 5 -9.3 -2.4 -7.9
  Nov 30, 2024 216   Robert Morris W 84-68 75%     3 - 5 +10.2 +9.4 +0.8
  Dec 07, 2024 259   Morehead St. W 88-76 81%     4 - 5 +3.8 +9.5 -6.3
  Dec 14, 2024 179   @ Marshall L 70-79 47%     4 - 6 -7.1 -3.3 -3.5
  Dec 18, 2024 298   Austin Peay W 78-58 86%     5 - 6 +9.6 +3.6 +6.2
  Jan 04, 2025 225   @ Central Michigan W 57-55 58%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +1.1 -11.5 +12.6
  Jan 07, 2025 329   @ Buffalo W 88-79 80%     7 - 6 2 - 0 +1.2 +2.1 -1.9
  Jan 11, 2025 356   Northern Illinois W 108-70 94%     8 - 6 3 - 0 +21.5 +15.7 +1.4
  Jan 14, 2025 250   Ball St. W 86-71 80%     9 - 6 4 - 0 +7.2 +11.2 -3.3
  Jan 17, 2025 124   @ Akron L 80-92 35%     9 - 7 4 - 1 -6.7 +3.6 -9.5
  Jan 21, 2025 313   @ Eastern Michigan W 81-74 75%    
  Jan 24, 2025 159   Kent St. W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 28, 2025 194   Toledo W 85-80 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 153   @ Miami (OH) L 77-79 40%    
  Feb 04, 2025 304   Western Michigan W 84-72 87%    
  Feb 08, 2025 123   Appalachian St. W 70-69 56%    
  Feb 11, 2025 285   @ Bowling Green W 81-75 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 159   @ Kent St. L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 18, 2025 225   Central Michigan W 77-69 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 124   Akron W 81-80 56%    
  Feb 25, 2025 304   @ Western Michigan W 81-75 72%    
  Mar 01, 2025 153   Miami (OH) W 79-76 62%    
  Mar 04, 2025 313   Eastern Michigan W 84-71 88%    
  Mar 07, 2025 194   @ Toledo L 82-83 49%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 5.4 7.0 4.0 1.0 18.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 2.4 8.8 8.9 2.9 0.3 23.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.1 10.2 8.6 2.6 0.2 24.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 7.7 5.5 1.0 0.0 16.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 4.0 3.4 0.4 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.6 0.3 4.2 6th
7th 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 1.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 4.1 8.5 14.6 18.5 19.7 16.9 10.1 4.3 1.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.0    0.9 0.1
16-2 93.0% 4.0    3.2 0.8 0.0
15-3 69.3% 7.0    3.8 2.8 0.3
14-4 31.9% 5.4    1.8 2.4 1.0 0.1
13-5 6.6% 1.3    0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.7% 18.7 9.9 6.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.0% 43.3% 43.3% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6
16-2 4.3% 32.8% 32.8% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 2.9
15-3 10.1% 30.3% 30.3% 13.6 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.0
14-4 16.9% 25.7% 25.7% 14.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 0.9 0.0 12.6
13-5 19.7% 21.1% 21.1% 14.2 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.4 0.0 15.6
12-6 18.5% 16.9% 16.9% 14.6 0.1 1.3 1.6 0.2 15.4
11-7 14.6% 10.8% 10.8% 14.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.1 13.0
10-8 8.5% 10.5% 10.5% 15.2 0.0 0.7 0.2 7.6
9-9 4.1% 7.5% 7.5% 15.7 0.1 0.2 3.8
8-10 1.6% 6.8% 6.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.5
7-11 0.6% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.9 3.5 8.1 6.0 0.9 80.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.0 9.4 78.1 12.5