IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.9	#215
Expected Predictive Rating	+18.3	#11

Pace	62.6	#346
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.3	#205

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.6	#226

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	8.8%	15.1%	8.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.0	13.1	14.0

.500 or above	60.0%	85.1%	59.6%
.500 or above in Conference	74.8%	87.8%	74.6%
Conference Champion	10.4%	19.7%	10.3%
Last Place in Conference	1.7%	0.0%	1.7%

First Four	0.4%	0.2%	0.4%
First Round	8.6%	14.9%	8.6%
Second Round	0.6%	0.9%	0.6%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee (Away) - 1.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 3	3 - 6	4 - 9
Quad 4	12 - 5	16 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2024	93	@ Butler	W	68-66	14%	1 - 0			+10.5	+3.5	+7.2
Nov 11, 2024	179	Chattanooga	W	67-61	53%	2 - 0			+2.2	-3.6	+6.2
Nov 17, 2024	9	@ Tennessee	L	56-79	2%
Nov 20, 2024	274	@ Morehead St.	W	64-63	50%
Nov 26, 2024	223	Georgia St.	W	70-69	51%
Nov 27, 2024	160	Texas Arlington	L	73-76	37%
Nov 30, 2024	190	@ East Tennessee St.	L	66-70	34%
Dec 08, 2024	141	@ Samford	L	71-78	26%
Dec 14, 2024	161	Southern Illinois	L	64-65	49%
Dec 18, 2024	158	@ Ohio	L	68-74	28%
Dec 21, 2024	83	@ Vanderbilt	L	65-78	12%
Jan 02, 2025	140	@ North Florida	L	70-77	26%
Jan 04, 2025	232	@ Jacksonville	L	64-67	41%
Jan 10, 2025	349	West Georgia	W	75-62	86%
Jan 11, 2025	297	Queens	W	76-69	73%
Jan 16, 2025	225	Eastern Kentucky	W	73-70	61%
Jan 18, 2025	143	@ Lipscomb	L	69-76	27%
Jan 23, 2025	346	@ Central Arkansas	W	73-67	70%
Jan 25, 2025	177	@ North Alabama	L	67-72	33%
Jan 30, 2025	328	Bellarmine	W	72-62	79%
Feb 01, 2025	225	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	70-73	40%
Feb 05, 2025	177	North Alabama	W	70-69	53%
Feb 08, 2025	346	Central Arkansas	W	76-64	85%
Feb 13, 2025	239	Florida Gulf Coast	W	66-62	62%
Feb 15, 2025	322	Stetson	W	72-63	78%
Feb 18, 2025	328	@ Bellarmine	W	69-65	61%
Feb 20, 2025	297	@ Queens	W	73-72	53%
Feb 24, 2025	143	Lipscomb	L	72-73	46%
Feb 26, 2025	349	@ West Georgia	W	72-65	71%
Projected Record						15 - 14	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	1.1	2.6	3.1	2.2	1.0	0.1		10.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	2.0	4.2	3.8	1.4	0.2	0.0			12.0	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.4	2.5	5.4	4.0	1.0	0.1					13.4	3rd
4th									0.0	0.4	2.7	5.8	3.8	0.7	0.0						13.4	4th
5th								0.0	0.3	2.5	5.4	3.7	0.7	0.0							12.5	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	2.0	4.9	3.4	0.7	0.0								11.3	6th
7th							0.2	1.4	4.0	3.0	0.7	0.0									9.3	7th
8th						0.1	1.1	2.8	2.4	0.6	0.0										6.9	8th
9th					0.1	0.7	2.0	1.8	0.5	0.0											5.1	9th
10th				0.0	0.5	1.3	1.1	0.3	0.0												3.2	10th
11th			0.0	0.3	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.0													1.7	11th
12th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0														0.8	12th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.5	2.7	4.5	6.4	9.1	11.4	12.6	13.1	12.0	10.0	7.5	4.6	2.5	1.0	0.1			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	99.0%	1.0		1.0	0.1
16-2	90.8%	2.2		1.9	0.4	0.0
15-3	67.2%	3.1		1.8	1.1	0.2
14-4	35.2%	2.6		1.0	1.2	0.4	0.0	0.0
13-5	10.8%	1.1		0.2	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.5%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	10.4%	10.4		6.0	3.2	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		45.7%	45.7%		12.5												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1
17-1	1.0%		47.6%	47.3%	0.3%	12.5											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.0			0.5		0.6%
16-2	2.5%		32.9%	32.9%		12.9												0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0		1.7
15-3	4.6%		26.9%	26.9%		13.3													0.2	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0	3.4
14-4	7.5%		21.6%	21.6%		13.7													0.1	0.6	0.7	0.2	0.0	5.9
13-5	10.0%		14.1%	14.1%		14.1													0.0	0.3	0.6	0.4	0.0	8.6
12-6	12.0%		10.4%	10.4%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	10.8
11-7	13.1%		7.2%	7.2%		14.8													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.2	12.1
10-8	12.6%		4.6%	4.6%		15.1														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	12.0
9-9	11.4%		2.5%	2.5%		15.5															0.0	0.1	0.2	11.1
8-10	9.1%		1.0%	1.0%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	9.0
7-11	6.4%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	6.4
6-12	4.5%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	4.5
5-13	2.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	2.7
4-14	1.5%																							1.5
3-15	0.7%																							0.7
2-16	0.2%																							0.2
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		8.8%	8.8%	0.0%	14.0											0.0	0.1	0.8	2.3	2.8	2.1	0.8	91.2		0.0%