IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.5	#261
Expected Predictive Rating	-2.9	#215

Pace	61.2	#348
Improvement	-4.0	#353

Offense
Total Offense	-5.4	#325

First Shot	-5.5	#329
After Offensive Rebound	+0.1	#175

Layup/Dunks	-1.8	#247
2 Pt Jumpshots	-0.2	#172
3 Pt Jumpshots	-1.6	#221
Freethrows	-1.9	#287

Improvement	-2.7	#348

Defense
Total Defense	-0.1	#177

First Shot	+2.0	#115
After Offensive Rebounds	-2.1	#323

Layups/Dunks	-5.4	#344
2 Pt Jumpshots	+2.2	#25
3 Pt Jumpshots	+6.6	#7
Freethrows	-1.3	#271

Improvement	-1.3	#289

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.1%	4.5%	2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.2	14.9	15.3

.500 or above	21.3%	38.9%	16.5%
.500 or above in Conference	55.3%	65.2%	52.6%
Conference Champion	2.5%	4.1%	2.1%
Last Place in Conference	3.1%	1.9%	3.5%

First Four	0.9%	0.7%	0.9%
First Round	2.6%	4.1%	2.2%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Away) - 21.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	1 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 7	3 - 11
Quad 4	10 - 6	13 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2024	74	@ Butler	W	68-66	8%	1 - 0			+12.4	+3.8	+8.7
Nov 11, 2024	178	Chattanooga	W	67-61	44%	2 - 0			+2.1	-4.5	+7.1
Nov 17, 2024	4	@ Tennessee	L	68-103	1%	2 - 1			-12.0	+6.7	-17.8
Nov 20, 2024	279	@ Morehead St.	L	58-63	41%	2 - 2			-8.2	-8.9	+0.1
Nov 26, 2024	253	Georgia St.	W	62-50	49%	3 - 2			+6.8	-5.0	+13.3
Nov 27, 2024	162	Texas Arlington	L	58-68	30%	3 - 3			-10.2	-10.7	-0.6
Nov 30, 2024	147	@ East Tennessee St.	L	57-79	19%	3 - 4			-18.4	-10.3	-9.4
Dec 08, 2024	109	@ Samford	L	47-72	12%	3 - 5			-18.0	-22.1	+2.1
Dec 14, 2024	169	Southern Illinois	L	60-65	43%	3 - 6			-8.6	-6.9	-2.1
Dec 18, 2024	161	@ Ohio	L	65-73	22%
Dec 21, 2024	57	@ Vanderbilt	L	61-79	5%
Jan 02, 2025	167	@ North Florida	L	68-76	23%
Jan 04, 2025	204	@ Jacksonville	L	61-67	28%
Jan 10, 2025	348	West Georgia	W	70-60	81%
Jan 11, 2025	280	Queens	W	71-67	63%
Jan 16, 2025	218	Eastern Kentucky	W	69-68	51%
Jan 18, 2025	107	@ Lipscomb	L	59-72	12%
Jan 23, 2025	342	@ Central Arkansas	W	66-63	60%
Jan 25, 2025	193	@ North Alabama	L	62-69	26%
Jan 30, 2025	333	Bellarmine	W	71-63	76%
Feb 01, 2025	218	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	65-71	31%
Feb 05, 2025	193	North Alabama	L	65-66	46%
Feb 08, 2025	342	Central Arkansas	W	69-60	79%
Feb 13, 2025	180	Florida Gulf Coast	L	61-63	45%
Feb 15, 2025	336	Stetson	W	71-63	77%
Feb 18, 2025	333	@ Bellarmine	W	68-66	57%
Feb 20, 2025	280	@ Queens	L	68-70	42%
Feb 24, 2025	107	Lipscomb	L	62-69	27%
Feb 26, 2025	348	@ West Georgia	W	67-63	63%
Projected Record						12 - 17	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.5	0.9	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0		2.5	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	1.2	2.1	1.3	0.3	0.0				5.0	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	2.0	3.6	1.8	0.2	0.0					7.9	3rd
4th										0.3	2.8	4.8	2.4	0.3	0.0						10.6	4th
5th								0.0	0.4	2.9	6.0	3.2	0.5	0.0							12.8	5th
6th							0.0	0.3	2.9	6.3	4.0	0.6	0.0								14.1	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	2.7	6.5	4.3	0.8	0.0									14.6	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	2.4	5.8	3.9	0.8	0.0										13.2	8th
9th					0.2	1.6	4.1	2.8	0.5	0.0											9.1	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	1.0	2.4	1.8	0.4	0.0												5.7	10th
11th		0.0	0.1	0.6	1.2	1.0	0.2	0.0													3.0	11th
12th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.1															1.4	12th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.2	2.8	5.4	8.7	12.0	14.2	14.6	13.9	10.8	7.7	4.6	2.4	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
16-2	92.1%	0.3		0.2	0.1
15-3	70.0%	0.7		0.4	0.2	0.0
14-4	37.4%	0.9		0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-5	9.9%	0.5		0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.2%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.5%	2.5		1.1	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																		0.0					0.0
17-1	0.1%		32.5%	32.5%		13.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
16-2	0.3%		24.4%	24.4%		13.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2
15-3	0.9%		17.2%	17.2%		14.3														0.0	0.1	0.1		0.8
14-4	2.4%		12.6%	12.6%		14.3														0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	2.1
13-5	4.6%		8.8%	8.8%		14.8														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	4.2
12-6	7.7%		7.0%	7.0%		15.1														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	7.2
11-7	10.8%		4.7%	4.7%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.3	0.2	10.3
10-8	13.9%		3.5%	3.5%		15.8																0.1	0.4	13.4
9-9	14.6%		2.0%	2.0%		16.0																0.0	0.3	14.3
8-10	14.2%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																0.0	0.1	14.0
7-11	12.0%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	11.9
6-12	8.7%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	8.6
5-13	5.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	5.4
4-14	2.8%																							2.8
3-15	1.2%																							1.2
2-16	0.4%																							0.4
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		3.1%	3.1%	0.0%	15.2													0.0	0.1	0.4	1.1	1.4	96.9		0.0%