Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
151 Lipscomb 21.5%   15   2 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 11 13 - 5 +0.4      +1.7 127 -1.2 210 71.1 120 -0.5 193 0.0 1
175 North Florida 16.2%   3 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 6 -0.9      +3.4 85 -4.3 314 70.7 132 +7.4 80 0.0 1
187 North Alabama 15.0%   2 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 -1.3      +1.1 146 -2.4 248 69.0 188 -0.9 200 0.0 1
199 Eastern Kentucky 12.8%   2 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 -1.9      +1.1 145 -3.0 268 70.5 141 +7.5 79 0.0 1
216 Florida Gulf Coast 10.5%   0 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 16 11 - 7 -2.7      -2.3 240 -0.4 185 61.7 348 -9.5 304 0.0 1
226 Jacksonville 9.7%   1 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 14 10 - 8 -3.2      -3.5 276 +0.3 155 65.0 301 -3.9 241 0.0 1
231 Austin Peay 9.1%   2 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -3.4      -1.0 201 -2.3 246 62.6 339 +15.4 19 0.0 1
299 Queens 2.7%   1 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -7.3      -5.0 314 -2.3 244 79.8 13 -4.2 245 0.0 1
326 Stetson 1.3%   0 - 3 0 - 0 8 - 19 7 - 11 -9.2      -3.7 279 -5.5 340 66.8 262 -18.0 358 0.0 1
335 Bellarmine 0.6%   0 - 5 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 13 -10.6      -4.4 299 -6.2 348 64.2 321 -22.6 364 0.0 1
340 Central Arkansas 0.4%   0 - 3 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 13 -11.7      -6.2 339 -5.5 339 71.8 102 -13.3 329 0.0 1
353 West Georgia 0.2%   0 - 5 0 - 0 6 - 24 4 - 14 -13.2      -6.2 338 -7.0 353 68.6 201 -14.0 335 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Lipscomb 3.0 31.2 21.0 15.3 11.1 7.9 5.7 3.7 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1
North Florida 3.7 22.5 17.4 14.8 12.7 10.0 7.9 6.1 4.1 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.2
North Alabama 4.0 19.0 15.6 14.0 13.0 11.3 9.5 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.3
Eastern Kentucky 4.6 14.5 13.3 12.8 12.4 11.5 10.5 9.0 6.9 4.7 2.7 1.3 0.4
Florida Gulf Coast 4.5 12.9 13.6 13.9 13.0 12.1 10.7 8.7 6.6 4.3 2.4 1.3 0.5
Jacksonville 4.9 11.8 12.1 11.9 11.6 11.4 11.0 10.1 7.9 5.9 3.4 2.0 0.8
Austin Peay 4.9 11.1 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.2 11.6 10.0 7.7 5.3 3.2 1.9 0.7
Queens 7.1 2.5 4.2 5.1 6.9 9.0 11.2 12.8 14.1 13.0 10.0 7.1 4.1
Stetson 8.1 1.2 2.1 3.2 4.6 6.2 8.4 11.1 13.6 15.4 14.4 11.8 8.1
Bellarmine 9.3 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.9 3.2 4.9 7.5 10.8 15.3 19.2 20.0 15.2
Central Arkansas 9.5 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.7 4.2 6.5 9.8 14.2 18.7 20.3 20.1
West Georgia 10.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.7 7.9 12.4 17.8 22.5 29.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Lipscomb 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.0 5.4 8.1 11.4 14.4 15.5 14.8 12.1 7.7 3.7 1.0
North Florida 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.4 5.4 7.9 10.6 12.9 14.0 13.6 11.7 8.6 5.3 2.4 0.6
North Alabama 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.2 6.6 9.2 11.8 13.4 13.8 12.5 10.3 7.4 4.2 1.8 0.4
Eastern Kentucky 11 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.3 3.8 6.1 8.2 10.8 12.4 12.8 12.9 10.7 8.4 5.6 3.0 1.2 0.2
Florida Gulf Coast 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.6 5.7 8.3 10.7 13.0 13.4 13.4 11.4 8.2 5.3 2.6 1.0 0.2
Jacksonville 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.0 5.0 7.1 9.4 11.2 12.5 12.2 11.7 9.9 7.3 4.5 2.4 1.0 0.2
Austin Peay 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.5 6.8 9.4 11.4 13.3 13.1 12.0 9.9 7.2 4.5 2.1 0.8 0.2
Queens 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.6 6.0 9.0 11.4 12.6 13.0 12.3 10.5 7.8 5.3 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Stetson 7 - 11 0.3 1.4 3.7 6.6 9.8 12.1 13.6 12.9 11.7 9.8 7.1 4.9 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Bellarmine 5 - 13 1.0 3.8 7.7 11.6 14.6 15.1 13.8 11.3 8.4 5.8 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 5 - 13 1.5 5.1 9.4 13.2 14.7 14.7 13.1 10.1 7.4 4.8 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
West Georgia 4 - 14 2.5 7.4 12.5 15.8 16.5 14.5 11.5 8.3 5.1 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lipscomb 31.2% 20.4 8.2 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Florida 22.5% 14.2 6.2 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Alabama 19.0% 11.8 5.3 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 14.5% 8.8 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 12.9% 7.3 3.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 11.8% 6.9 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Austin Peay 11.1% 6.4 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Queens 2.5% 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stetson 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bellarmine 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
West Georgia 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lipscomb 21.5% 21.5% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.0 6.3 6.4 3.1 78.5 0.0%
North Florida 16.2% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.6 4.9 3.4 1.1 83.8 0.0%
North Alabama 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.0 4.7 3.0 85.0 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.9 3.6 1.6 87.2 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.3 4.3 89.5 0.0%
Jacksonville 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.3 3.1 2.9 90.3 0.0%
Austin Peay 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.8 2.6 1.0 90.9 0.0%
Queens 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 97.3 0.0%
Stetson 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 98.7 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%
West Georgia 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Lipscomb 21.5% 1.0% 21.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 16.2% 0.4% 16.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 15.0% 1.2% 14.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 12.8% 0.7% 12.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 10.5% 2.5% 9.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 9.7% 1.6% 9.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 9.1% 0.5% 8.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 2.7% 1.1% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 95.0% 1.0 5.0 95.0
2nd Round 6.1% 0.1 93.9 6.1
Sweet Sixteen 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0