Preseason Rankings
Atlantic Sun
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
158 Lipscomb 24.4%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 13 - 5 +0.3      +2.9 95 -2.6 262 71.6 85 0.0 1 0.0 1
206 Florida Gulf Coast 14.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 11 - 7 -2.3      -1.3 215 -1.1 203 61.7 341 0.0 1 0.0 1
222 Jacksonville 12.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 11 - 7 -3.0      -2.4 254 -0.6 187 65.0 282 0.0 1 0.0 1
231 North Alabama 11.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 -3.4      -0.1 168 -3.3 283 69.0 158 0.0 1 0.0 1
254 North Florida 8.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 10 - 8 -4.7      -0.5 189 -4.2 318 67.9 194 0.0 1 0.0 1
255 Eastern Kentucky 8.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 14 9 - 9 -4.8      -1.0 205 -3.8 304 70.5 111 0.0 1 0.0 1
281 Austin Peay 6.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 9 - 9 -5.8      -1.6 223 -4.2 320 62.6 334 0.0 1 0.0 1
289 Queens 4.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 9 - 9 -6.5      -1.7 230 -4.9 333 79.8 11 0.0 1 0.0 1
290 Stetson 5.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 9 - 9 -6.6      -1.9 238 -4.7 329 65.5 267 0.0 1 0.0 1
299 Bellarmine 3.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -7.1      -3.3 277 -3.8 306 63.8 313 0.0 1 0.0 1
341 Central Arkansas 1.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 12 -11.4      -5.7 333 -5.6 347 71.8 82 0.0 1 0.0 1
351 West Georgia 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 23 5 - 13 -12.7      -6.1 337 -6.6 355 68.6 168 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Lipscomb 3.0 35.8 20.0 12.9 9.3 6.7 5.0 3.7 2.6 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.3
Florida Gulf Coast 4.3 18.4 15.7 13.7 11.7 10.1 8.0 6.7 5.5 4.2 3.2 1.9 1.0
Jacksonville 4.7 15.8 13.9 12.4 11.4 10.0 8.6 7.8 6.4 5.4 4.1 2.8 1.5
North Alabama 4.9 13.8 13.0 12.6 11.7 10.4 9.2 8.3 6.7 5.5 4.2 3.0 1.5
North Florida 5.6 9.6 10.0 10.6 10.6 10.6 9.8 9.2 8.6 7.7 6.2 4.6 2.6
Eastern Kentucky 5.9 8.4 9.0 9.5 9.9 9.6 10.0 9.8 9.4 8.3 7.5 5.6 3.0
Austin Peay 6.0 7.3 8.5 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.1 10.0 9.5 8.3 7.2 5.6 3.7
Queens 6.5 5.7 6.9 8.0 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.2 10.1 9.7 8.6 7.3 5.2
Stetson 6.6 5.3 7.0 8.1 8.8 9.4 9.8 10.2 9.9 9.9 9.0 7.6 4.9
Bellarmine 7.3 3.7 4.9 6.1 7.2 8.1 8.9 10.3 11.0 11.1 11.3 10.6 6.8
Central Arkansas 9.1 0.9 1.4 2.1 3.3 4.3 5.9 6.9 9.5 11.7 14.8 18.7 20.7
West Georgia 9.7 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.2 2.9 4.2 5.5 7.6 10.4 14.5 20.2 29.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Lipscomb 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.9 5.5 7.4 9.8 11.8 13.4 13.3 11.9 9.7 6.0 2.1
Florida Gulf Coast 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.7 5.5 7.2 9.3 10.8 11.9 11.8 11.3 9.3 7.2 4.6 2.2 0.6
Jacksonville 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.2 4.8 6.6 8.3 9.9 10.9 11.5 11.2 9.9 8.0 6.0 3.8 1.7 0.5
North Alabama 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.2 5.2 6.9 9.0 10.2 11.7 11.9 11.1 9.5 7.6 5.3 3.0 1.3 0.4
North Florida 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.4 5.0 7.1 8.8 10.1 11.1 11.6 10.6 9.6 7.3 5.5 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.2
Eastern Kentucky 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.4 4.0 6.0 7.7 9.8 10.6 11.2 10.9 9.9 8.8 6.7 4.8 3.0 1.7 0.6 0.1
Austin Peay 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.0 6.1 7.9 9.8 11.2 11.4 11.3 10.0 8.4 6.4 4.5 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1
Queens 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.4 5.3 7.4 9.2 10.6 11.3 11.4 10.4 9.0 7.2 5.2 3.4 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1
Stetson 9 - 9 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.4 5.4 7.4 9.4 10.8 11.3 11.1 10.5 8.9 7.0 5.4 3.5 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1
Bellarmine 8 - 10 0.3 1.3 2.9 4.8 7.6 9.3 10.8 11.6 11.5 10.4 8.9 7.2 5.4 3.7 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Central Arkansas 6 - 12 1.7 4.8 7.8 11.2 12.6 13.1 12.2 10.5 8.4 6.6 4.6 2.8 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
West Georgia 5 - 13 3.0 7.3 11.2 13.4 14.0 12.8 11.2 8.7 6.7 4.5 3.0 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lipscomb 35.8% 25.3 8.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 18.4% 11.6 5.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 15.8% 10.2 4.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
North Alabama 13.8% 8.5 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Florida 9.6% 5.8 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 8.4% 5.0 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
Austin Peay 7.3% 4.1 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
Queens 5.7% 3.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stetson 5.3% 2.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Bellarmine 3.7% 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
West Georgia 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lipscomb 24.4% 24.4% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.4 6.1 6.1 4.9 75.6 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.4 3.9 4.1 85.6 0.0%
Jacksonville 12.4% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.7 3.6 3.9 87.6 0.0%
North Alabama 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.6 3.5 3.1 88.8 0.0%
North Florida 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.2 92.0 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 2.4 3.1 91.9 0.0%
Austin Peay 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.8 93.7 0.0%
Queens 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.8 95.1 0.0%
Stetson 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.4 95.0 0.0%
Bellarmine 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.8 96.1 0.0%
Central Arkansas 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 99.0 0.0%
West Georgia 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Lipscomb 24.4% 2.3% 23.4% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 14.4% 2.1% 13.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 12.4% 2.1% 11.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 11.2% 1.5% 10.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 8.0% 1.9% 7.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 8.1% 1.8% 7.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 6.3% 1.8% 5.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 4.9% 1.8% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 5.0% 1.4% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 3.9% 1.0% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 1.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 91.1% 0.9 8.9 91.1 0.0
2nd Round 6.2% 0.1 93.8 6.2
Sweet Sixteen 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0