Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#231
Expected Predictive Rating+15.4#19
Pace62.6#339
Improvement-1.0#294

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#201
First Shot-2.0#236
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#121
Layup/Dunks+0.8#151
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#156
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#298
Freethrows+0.9#146
Improvement+0.0#177

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#246
First Shot+0.5#168
After Offensive Rebounds-2.8#319
Layups/Dunks-7.2#348
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#129
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#17
Freethrows-1.2#245
Improvement-1.0#306
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.1% 11.2% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 58.1% 70.9% 45.9%
.500 or above in Conference 74.2% 80.2% 68.4%
Conference Champion 11.1% 14.1% 8.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.1% 2.1%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.6%
First Round8.9% 11.0% 6.8%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Away) - 49.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 64 - 9
Quad 412 - 516 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 85   @ Butler W 68-66 11%     1 - 0 +11.7 +4.0 +7.8
  Nov 11, 2024 168   Chattanooga W 67-61 51%     2 - 0 +2.4 -3.0 +5.9
  Nov 17, 2024 8   @ Tennessee L 68-103 2%     2 - 1 -14.6 +4.4 -18.1
  Nov 20, 2024 279   @ Morehead St. L 64-65 49%    
  Nov 26, 2024 223   Georgia St. L 69-70 49%    
  Nov 27, 2024 164   Texas Arlington L 73-76 39%    
  Nov 30, 2024 188   @ East Tennessee St. L 67-72 32%    
  Dec 08, 2024 127   @ Samford L 72-81 21%    
  Dec 14, 2024 132   Southern Illinois L 66-68 42%    
  Dec 18, 2024 156   @ Ohio L 69-75 28%    
  Dec 21, 2024 82   @ Vanderbilt L 66-79 12%    
  Jan 02, 2025 175   @ North Florida L 71-76 31%    
  Jan 04, 2025 226   @ Jacksonville L 64-67 39%    
  Jan 10, 2025 353   West Georgia W 76-63 87%    
  Jan 11, 2025 299   Queens W 76-69 73%    
  Jan 16, 2025 199   Eastern Kentucky W 73-71 55%    
  Jan 18, 2025 151   @ Lipscomb L 68-75 28%    
  Jan 23, 2025 340   @ Central Arkansas W 72-67 68%    
  Jan 25, 2025 187   @ North Alabama L 68-73 33%    
  Jan 30, 2025 335   Bellarmine W 72-62 81%    
  Feb 01, 2025 199   @ Eastern Kentucky L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 05, 2025 187   North Alabama W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 340   Central Arkansas W 75-64 84%    
  Feb 13, 2025 216   Florida Gulf Coast W 65-63 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 326   Stetson W 73-64 77%    
  Feb 18, 2025 335   @ Bellarmine W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 20, 2025 299   @ Queens W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 24, 2025 151   Lipscomb L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 26, 2025 353   @ West Georgia W 73-66 73%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.2 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.2 11.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.6 3.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.3 3.2 0.6 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.3 2.6 5.6 3.5 0.6 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.6 3.7 0.6 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 4.9 4.0 0.8 0.0 11.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.1 3.6 0.7 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.1 2.8 0.7 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.5 6.8 9.4 11.4 13.3 13.1 12.0 9.9 7.2 4.5 2.1 0.8 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.1% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 93.2% 1.9    1.6 0.3 0.0
15-3 77.1% 3.4    2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 44.2% 3.2    1.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 14.4% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.1% 11.1 6.4 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 47.5% 45.9% 1.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.0%
17-1 0.8% 37.3% 37.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.1% 35.0% 35.0% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.3
15-3 4.5% 27.0% 27.0% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.3
14-4 7.2% 22.7% 22.7% 13.7 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 5.5
13-5 9.9% 15.2% 15.2% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 8.4
12-6 12.0% 11.2% 11.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 10.6
11-7 13.1% 8.0% 8.0% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 12.0
10-8 13.3% 5.6% 5.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 12.6
9-9 11.4% 3.1% 3.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 11.0
8-10 9.4% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 9.3
7-11 6.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.8
6-12 4.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.5
5-13 2.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.7
4-14 1.4% 1.4
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.8 2.6 1.0 90.9 0.0%