Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.7#298
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#260
Pace63.9#302
Improvement-3.7#332

Offense
Total Offense-6.4#333
First Shot-5.9#332
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#224
Layup/Dunks-2.0#259
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#253
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#284
Freethrows+0.6#137
Improvement-0.3#198

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#216
First Shot-0.9#208
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#214
Layups/Dunks-5.5#349
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#20
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#15
Freethrows-2.8#343
Improvement-3.4#338
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.8% 3.3% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 27.9% 40.2% 14.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 0.5% 4.1%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Away) - 52.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 32 - 73 - 12
Quad 48 - 711 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 84   @ Butler W 68-66 6%     1 - 0 +11.5 +3.0 +8.6
  Nov 11, 2024 156   Chattanooga W 67-61 30%     2 - 0 +3.7 -5.5 +9.7
  Nov 17, 2024 8   @ Tennessee L 68-103 1%     2 - 1 -13.5 +5.6 -18.2
  Nov 20, 2024 259   @ Morehead St. L 58-63 32%     2 - 2 -7.7 -6.5 -1.9
  Nov 26, 2024 280   Georgia St. W 62-50 47%     3 - 2 +5.1 -6.2 +12.9
  Nov 27, 2024 201   Texas Arlington L 58-68 29%     3 - 3 -11.9 -10.7 -2.3
  Nov 30, 2024 146   @ East Tennessee St. L 57-79 14%     3 - 4 -18.1 -10.6 -8.8
  Dec 08, 2024 115   @ Samford L 47-72 11%     3 - 5 -19.3 -21.7 +0.4
  Dec 14, 2024 190   Southern Illinois L 60-65 36%     3 - 6 -9.0 -7.8 -1.7
  Dec 18, 2024 147   @ Ohio L 58-78 14%     3 - 7 -16.1 -13.2 -3.2
  Dec 21, 2024 48   @ Vanderbilt L 55-85 4%     3 - 8 -16.5 -13.9 -1.5
  Jan 02, 2025 245   @ North Florida W 97-89 29%     4 - 8 1 - 0 +6.1 +12.4 -6.8
  Jan 04, 2025 185   @ Jacksonville L 44-68 19%     4 - 9 1 - 1 -22.3 -24.0 +1.1
  Jan 09, 2025 349   West Georgia L 68-72 76%     4 - 10 1 - 2 -19.3 -13.6 -5.6
  Jan 11, 2025 210   Queens L 60-67 40%     4 - 11 1 - 3 -12.2 -13.1 +0.5
  Jan 16, 2025 248   Eastern Kentucky W 97-90 OT 50%     5 - 11 2 - 3 -0.6 +5.2 -6.7
  Jan 18, 2025 91   @ Lipscomb L 60-88 7%     5 - 12 2 - 4 -19.1 -5.3 -15.3
  Jan 23, 2025 339   @ Central Arkansas W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 163   @ North Alabama L 63-74 15%    
  Jan 30, 2025 353   Bellarmine W 73-64 79%    
  Feb 01, 2025 248   @ Eastern Kentucky L 67-73 29%    
  Feb 05, 2025 163   North Alabama L 66-71 33%    
  Feb 08, 2025 339   Central Arkansas W 70-63 74%    
  Feb 13, 2025 168   Florida Gulf Coast L 62-67 33%    
  Feb 15, 2025 348   Stetson W 73-66 74%    
  Feb 18, 2025 353   @ Bellarmine W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 20, 2025 210   @ Queens L 67-75 22%    
  Feb 24, 2025 91   Lipscomb L 62-73 16%    
  Feb 26, 2025 349   @ West Georgia W 68-66 57%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 2.7 1.6 0.2 5.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.1 7.5 4.3 0.5 17.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 7.0 11.2 5.9 0.7 0.0 26.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 8.5 11.4 5.5 0.8 0.0 27.6 8th
9th 0.5 4.0 5.7 1.5 0.1 11.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 3.2 1.0 0.1 5.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.8 9.3 16.5 20.7 21.0 15.2 8.2 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.2
12-6 1.2% 1.2
11-7 3.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.1
10-8 8.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 8.0
9-9 15.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 15.1
8-10 21.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 20.9
7-11 20.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 20.6
6-12 16.5% 16.5
5-13 9.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.2
4-14 3.8% 3.8
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%