IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.1	#273
Expected Predictive Rating	-3.6	#228

Pace	62.2	#342
Improvement	-5.2	#359

Offense
Total Offense	-6.0	#335

First Shot	-6.2	#341
After Offensive Rebound	+0.2	#168

Layup/Dunks	-2.5	#278
2 Pt Jumpshots	-0.5	#194
3 Pt Jumpshots	-1.8	#228
Freethrows	-1.4	#258

Improvement	-3.5	#355

Defense
Total Defense	-0.1	#172

First Shot	+1.5	#123
After Offensive Rebounds	-1.6	#300

Layups/Dunks	-3.7	#312
2 Pt Jumpshots	+1.9	#43
3 Pt Jumpshots	+4.9	#25
Freethrows	-1.6	#290

Improvement	-1.8	#315

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.5%	3.2%	2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.4	15.0	15.4

.500 or above	15.0%	35.4%	14.3%
.500 or above in Conference	51.0%	66.2%	50.5%
Conference Champion	1.8%	3.3%	1.7%
Last Place in Conference	3.7%	1.9%	3.7%

First Four	1.0%	0.4%	1.0%
First Round	2.0%	2.9%	2.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Vanderbilt (Away) - 3.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	1 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 7	3 - 12
Quad 4	9 - 6	12 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2024	74	@ Butler	W	68-66	7%	1 - 0			+12.5	+3.4	+9.3
Nov 11, 2024	183	Chattanooga	W	67-61	42%	2 - 0			+1.9	-4.6	+7.0
Nov 17, 2024	3	@ Tennessee	L	68-103	1%	2 - 1			-11.5	+7.2	-17.8
Nov 20, 2024	281	@ Morehead St.	L	58-63	41%	2 - 2			-8.6	-8.6	-0.7
Nov 26, 2024	263	Georgia St.	W	62-50	48%	3 - 2			+6.4	-5.0	+13.0
Nov 27, 2024	145	Texas Arlington	L	58-68	26%	3 - 3			-9.5	-10.2	-0.5
Nov 30, 2024	132	@ East Tennessee St.	L	57-79	16%	3 - 4			-17.3	-9.9	-8.6
Dec 08, 2024	112	@ Samford	L	47-72	12%	3 - 5			-18.6	-22.4	+1.8
Dec 14, 2024	168	Southern Illinois	L	60-65	40%	3 - 6			-8.6	-7.0	-2.1
Dec 18, 2024	149	@ Ohio	L	58-78	19%	3 - 7			-16.6	-14.2	-2.7
Dec 21, 2024	50	@ Vanderbilt	L	60-79	3%
Jan 02, 2025	188	@ North Florida	L	69-77	23%
Jan 04, 2025	205	@ Jacksonville	L	60-67	26%
Jan 10, 2025	341	West Georgia	W	70-62	78%
Jan 11, 2025	270	Queens	W	71-68	60%
Jan 16, 2025	220	Eastern Kentucky	L	68-69	49%
Jan 18, 2025	107	@ Lipscomb	L	59-72	11%
Jan 23, 2025	339	@ Central Arkansas	W	65-63	59%
Jan 25, 2025	182	@ North Alabama	L	62-70	23%
Jan 30, 2025	343	Bellarmine	W	72-63	79%
Feb 01, 2025	220	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	65-71	28%
Feb 05, 2025	182	North Alabama	L	65-67	43%
Feb 08, 2025	339	Central Arkansas	W	68-60	77%
Feb 13, 2025	192	Florida Gulf Coast	L	62-64	44%
Feb 15, 2025	344	Stetson	W	72-63	78%
Feb 18, 2025	343	@ Bellarmine	W	69-66	59%
Feb 20, 2025	270	@ Queens	L	68-71	38%
Feb 24, 2025	107	Lipscomb	L	62-69	26%
Feb 26, 2025	341	@ West Georgia	W	67-65	58%
Projected Record						12 - 17	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.1	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0		1.8	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	1.1	1.5	0.9	0.1	0.0				3.9	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	1.8	3.1	1.4	0.2	0.0					6.8	3rd
4th									0.0	0.3	2.4	4.4	2.1	0.2	0.0						9.4	4th
5th								0.0	0.3	2.7	5.4	3.2	0.4	0.0							12.0	5th
6th							0.0	0.3	2.7	6.4	4.2	0.6	0.0								14.2	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	3.0	7.0	4.5	0.8	0.0									15.6	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	2.9	6.5	4.3	0.9	0.0										14.9	8th
9th					0.2	2.0	4.5	2.7	0.5	0.0											10.0	9th
10th				0.2	1.1	2.8	1.8	0.3	0.0												6.2	10th
11th		0.0	0.1	0.7	1.4	1.1	0.2	0.0													3.5	11th
12th	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0														1.7	12th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.6	3.2	6.3	9.7	12.8	14.8	14.8	13.1	10.2	6.8	3.5	1.7	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	90.4%	0.2		0.2	0.0	0.0
15-3	77.2%	0.4		0.3	0.2	0.0
14-4	37.3%	0.6		0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-5	9.9%	0.4		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.8%	1.8		0.8	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																		0.0					0.0
17-1	0.0%																			0.0	0.0			0.0
16-2	0.2%		13.9%	13.9%		13.8														0.0	0.0			0.2
15-3	0.6%		17.6%	17.6%		14.1														0.0	0.1	0.0		0.5
14-4	1.7%		11.0%	11.0%		14.6														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.5
13-5	3.5%		9.2%	9.2%		15.0														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	3.2
12-6	6.8%		5.6%	5.6%		15.3															0.0	0.2	0.2	6.4
11-7	10.2%		4.9%	4.9%		15.5															0.0	0.3	0.2	9.7
10-8	13.1%		2.9%	2.9%		15.9																0.0	0.4	12.7
9-9	14.8%		1.8%	1.8%		16.0																0.0	0.3	14.6
8-10	14.8%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	14.7
7-11	12.8%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	12.7
6-12	9.7%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	9.7
5-13	6.3%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	6.3
4-14	3.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.2
3-15	1.6%																							1.6
2-16	0.4%																							0.4
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		2.5%	2.5%	0.0%	15.4													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.4	97.5		0.0%