Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#276
Expected Predictive Rating-4.9#245
Pace65.2#260
Improvement+1.1#139

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#280
First Shot-3.8#289
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#191
Layup/Dunks-1.2#225
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#250
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#266
Freethrows+1.2#102
Improvement+5.6#10

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#243
First Shot-2.0#238
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#229
Layups/Dunks-6.1#358
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#25
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#16
Freethrows-3.1#348
Improvement-4.5#349
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.7% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 69.8% 100.0% 60.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 23.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 64 - 12
Quad 48 - 612 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 66   @ Butler W 68-66 6%     1 - 0 +12.9 +2.8 +10.2
  Nov 11, 2024 119   Chattanooga W 67-61 26%     2 - 0 +6.2 -4.3 +10.9
  Nov 17, 2024 5   @ Tennessee L 68-103 1%     2 - 1 -12.5 +7.4 -19.0
  Nov 20, 2024 329   @ Morehead St. L 58-63 55%     2 - 2 -12.8 -10.3 -3.2
  Nov 26, 2024 252   Georgia St. W 62-50 45%     3 - 2 +6.9 -7.5 +16.0
  Nov 27, 2024 205   Texas Arlington L 58-68 35%     3 - 3 -12.4 -11.3 -2.2
  Nov 30, 2024 148   @ East Tennessee St. L 57-79 18%     3 - 4 -18.7 -10.2 -9.8
  Dec 08, 2024 113   @ Samford L 47-72 13%     3 - 5 -19.5 -20.0 -1.5
  Dec 14, 2024 179   Southern Illinois L 60-65 39%     3 - 6 -8.5 -7.9 -1.1
  Dec 18, 2024 172   @ Ohio L 58-78 21%     3 - 7 -18.0 -14.1 -4.2
  Dec 21, 2024 53   @ Vanderbilt L 55-85 4%     3 - 8 -16.8 -15.0 -0.8
  Jan 02, 2025 266   @ North Florida W 97-89 37%     4 - 8 1 - 0 +5.0 +13.2 -8.7
  Jan 04, 2025 193   @ Jacksonville L 44-68 25%     4 - 9 1 - 1 -23.3 -24.9 +1.1
  Jan 09, 2025 348   West Georgia L 68-72 80%     4 - 10 1 - 2 -19.3 -13.8 -5.5
  Jan 11, 2025 231   Queens L 60-67 50%     4 - 11 1 - 3 -13.4 -14.2 +0.4
  Jan 16, 2025 191   Eastern Kentucky W 97-90 OT 42%     5 - 11 2 - 3 +2.6 +6.5 -4.8
  Jan 18, 2025 101   @ Lipscomb L 60-88 11%     5 - 12 2 - 4 -21.0 -6.0 -16.6
  Jan 23, 2025 344   @ Central Arkansas W 73-71 62%     6 - 12 3 - 4 -7.7 -2.4 -5.3
  Jan 25, 2025 134   @ North Alabama L 84-88 OT 17%     6 - 13 3 - 5 -0.1 +2.2 -1.9
  Jan 30, 2025 340   Bellarmine W 86-77 OT 77%     7 - 13 4 - 5 -5.2 -4.1 -1.8
  Feb 01, 2025 191   @ Eastern Kentucky L 82-88 25%     7 - 14 4 - 6 -5.3 +15.3 -21.2
  Feb 05, 2025 134   North Alabama L 64-74 31%     7 - 15 4 - 7 -11.2 -10.0 -1.4
  Feb 08, 2025 344   Central Arkansas W 90-67 79%     8 - 15 5 - 7 +8.2 +14.2 -5.0
  Feb 13, 2025 180   Florida Gulf Coast W 73-60 39%     9 - 15 6 - 7 +9.4 +11.6 +0.4
  Feb 15, 2025 349   Stetson W 76-63 80%     10 - 15 7 - 7 -2.4 +9.4 -9.1
  Feb 18, 2025 340   @ Bellarmine L 68-94 60%     10 - 16 7 - 8 -35.1 -13.7 -21.3
  Feb 20, 2025 231   @ Queens W 92-78 31%     11 - 16 8 - 8 +12.7 +12.5 -0.4
  Feb 24, 2025 101   Lipscomb L 65-73 23%    
  Feb 26, 2025 348   @ West Georgia W 73-69 62%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 3.4 3.4 6th
7th 12.1 48.4 11.3 71.7 7th
8th 18.1 6.6 24.8 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 30.2 55.0 14.8 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 14.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 14.6
9-9 55.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.3 54.7
8-10 30.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 30.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%
Lose Out 17.2%