IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Ohio
Mid-American
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.6	#121
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.1	#186
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.8	#98

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.2	#173

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.2%	0.5%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	22.3%	28.7%	18.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.4	12.9	13.8

.500 or above	85.5%	94.5%	80.9%
.500 or above in Conference	88.8%	93.8%	86.2%
Conference Champion	28.8%	37.3%	24.4%
Last Place in Conference	0.6%	0.2%	0.8%

First Four	0.8%	0.6%	0.9%
First Round	21.9%	28.5%	18.5%
Second Round	3.9%	6.1%	2.8%
Sweet Sixteen	1.2%	1.9%	0.8%
Elite Eight	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%
Final Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Away) - 34.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 3	5 - 4	6 - 7
Quad 4	13 - 3	19 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	107	@ James Madison	L	72-76	34%
Nov 09, 2024	186	UNC Asheville	W	78-71	73%
Nov 12, 2024	193	@ Illinois St.	W	68-67	54%
Nov 15, 2024	42	@ Memphis	L	72-83	16%
Nov 21, 2024	197	Middle Tennessee	W	71-67	65%
Nov 30, 2024	295	Robert Morris	W	78-66	87%
Dec 07, 2024	224	Morehead St.	W	72-63	78%
Dec 14, 2024	194	@ Marshall	W	76-75	54%
Dec 18, 2024	281	Austin Peay	W	76-65	83%
Jan 04, 2025	277	@ Central Michigan	W	71-66	67%
Jan 07, 2025	337	@ Buffalo	W	79-69	82%
Jan 11, 2025	306	Northern Illinois	W	80-67	87%
Jan 14, 2025	240	Ball St.	W	76-67	79%
Jan 18, 2025	131	@ Akron	L	69-71	42%
Jan 21, 2025	287	@ Eastern Michigan	W	73-67	69%
Jan 25, 2025	118	Kent St.	W	73-70	59%
Jan 28, 2025	168	Toledo	W	80-74	69%
Feb 01, 2025	233	@ Miami (OH)	W	73-70	60%
Feb 04, 2025	311	Western Michigan	W	81-67	87%
Feb 11, 2025	265	@ Bowling Green	W	75-70	65%
Feb 15, 2025	118	@ Kent St.	L	70-73	40%
Feb 18, 2025	277	Central Michigan	W	74-63	82%
Feb 22, 2025	131	Akron	W	72-68	62%
Feb 25, 2025	311	@ Western Michigan	W	78-70	74%
Mar 01, 2025	233	Miami (OH)	W	76-67	78%
Mar 04, 2025	287	Eastern Michigan	W	76-64	83%
Mar 07, 2025	168	@ Toledo	L	76-77	50%
Projected Record						18 - 9	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-American Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.7	5.0	7.8	7.7	4.6	1.6		28.8	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	2.7	6.4	6.5	3.0	0.6	0.0			19.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.4	2.7	5.8	4.4	1.2	0.1					14.6	3rd
4th									0.0	0.2	2.2	4.9	3.0	0.6	0.0						10.9	4th
5th								0.0	0.2	1.7	3.6	2.2	0.4	0.0							8.1	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	1.0	2.8	1.9	0.3	0.0								6.1	6th
7th							0.0	0.6	2.0	1.5	0.3	0.0									4.5	7th
8th					0.0	0.0	0.4	1.3	1.2	0.3	0.0										3.1	8th
9th					0.0	0.2	0.9	0.8	0.2	0.0											2.1	9th
10th				0.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0												1.4	10th
11th			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0													0.7	11th
12th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0															0.3	12th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.9	1.9	3.0	4.6	6.4	8.5	10.6	12.2	13.1	12.6	10.8	8.3	4.7	1.6			Total

Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.6		1.6
17-1	100.0%	4.6		4.5	0.2
16-2	92.7%	7.7		6.4	1.3	0.0
15-3	72.1%	7.8		5.0	2.5	0.3
14-4	39.5%	5.0		2.0	2.3	0.6	0.0
13-5	13.2%	1.7		0.4	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0
12-6	2.4%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	28.8%	28.8		19.9	7.1	1.5	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.6%		69.5%	66.6%	2.9%	10.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0			0.5		8.7%
17-1	4.7%		55.5%	54.8%	0.7%	12.0					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.2	0.6	0.1	0.0		2.1		1.6%
16-2	8.3%		45.1%	45.1%	0.1%	12.7									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	1.3	1.5	0.6	0.1		4.5		0.1%
15-3	10.8%		37.5%	37.5%		13.2											0.0	0.0	0.9	1.7	1.1	0.3	0.0	6.8
14-4	12.6%		29.1%	29.1%		13.7												0.0	0.3	1.2	1.5	0.6	0.1	9.0
13-5	13.1%		20.9%	20.9%		14.2													0.1	0.5	1.0	0.9	0.2	10.4
12-6	12.2%		15.3%	15.3%		14.6													0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.3	10.3
11-7	10.6%		11.9%	11.9%		15.0														0.1	0.2	0.6	0.4	9.3
10-8	8.5%		7.9%	7.9%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	7.8
9-9	6.4%		6.0%	6.0%		15.6															0.0	0.1	0.3	6.1
8-10	4.6%		3.4%	3.4%		15.9																0.0	0.1	4.4
7-11	3.0%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.0	3.0
6-12	1.9%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	1.9
5-13	0.9%																							0.9
4-14	0.5%																							0.5
3-15	0.2%																							0.2
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		22.3%	22.2%	0.1%	13.4		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	1.0	4.2	5.9	5.3	3.5	1.9	77.7		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	4.5	5.7	15.7	10.9	20.1	21.4	15.3	2.2		7.0			1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	41.2%	8.5						11.8	14.7					14.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	26.1%	9.2					4.3					21.7