Ohio
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#172
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#205
Pace74.4#44
Improvement+0.5#167

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#155
First Shot+2.4#108
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#282
Layup/Dunks-0.1#185
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#224
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#61
Freethrows-0.7#225
Improvement+0.1#180

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#211
First Shot-2.4#252
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#89
Layups/Dunks-1.7#248
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#247
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#210
Freethrows+0.1#181
Improvement+0.4#173
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.9% 14.8% 11.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 79.8% 92.7% 69.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 100.0% 98.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round12.8% 14.7% 11.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Home) - 43.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 34 - 74 - 12
Quad 413 - 317 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 138   @ James Madison L 78-88 34%     0 - 1 -6.2 +4.1 -10.1
  Nov 09, 2024 184   UNC Asheville W 82-76 63%     1 - 1 +2.2 +1.9 +0.0
  Nov 12, 2024 127   @ Illinois St. L 75-85 32%     1 - 2 -5.7 +7.2 -13.8
  Nov 15, 2024 47   @ Memphis L 70-94 10%     1 - 3 -10.3 -0.7 -7.8
  Nov 21, 2024 122   Middle Tennessee L 81-83 OT 39%     1 - 4 +0.2 -2.4 +3.0
  Nov 22, 2024 284   Portland W 85-73 73%     2 - 4 +5.1 -3.3 +7.0
  Nov 24, 2024 202   Texas St. L 65-74 56%     2 - 5 -11.2 -3.3 -8.9
  Nov 30, 2024 173   Robert Morris W 84-68 60%     3 - 5 +12.9 +10.4 +2.5
  Dec 07, 2024 329   Morehead St. W 88-76 87%     4 - 5 -0.9 +6.0 -7.3
  Dec 14, 2024 190   @ Marshall L 70-79 45%     4 - 6 -8.1 -4.4 -3.5
  Dec 18, 2024 276   Austin Peay W 78-58 79%     5 - 6 +11.0 +2.5 +8.8
  Jan 04, 2025 215   @ Central Michigan W 57-55 49%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +1.8 -13.4 +15.3
  Jan 07, 2025 352   @ Buffalo W 88-79 83%     7 - 6 2 - 0 -1.6 +1.5 -4.1
  Jan 11, 2025 341   Northern Illinois W 108-70 90%     8 - 6 3 - 0 +23.6 +17.7 +1.5
  Jan 14, 2025 261   Ball St. W 86-71 76%     9 - 6 4 - 0 +7.0 +10.3 -2.7
  Jan 17, 2025 102   @ Akron L 80-92 24%     9 - 7 4 - 1 -5.1 +4.3 -8.6
  Jan 21, 2025 291   @ Eastern Michigan L 87-94 65%     9 - 8 4 - 2 -11.6 +3.7 -14.7
  Jan 24, 2025 137   Kent St. W 61-59 53%     10 - 8 5 - 2 +0.7 -9.9 +10.7
  Jan 28, 2025 221   Toledo L 83-86 69%     10 - 9 5 - 3 -8.8 -1.8 -6.8
  Feb 01, 2025 171   @ Miami (OH) L 69-73 40%     10 - 10 5 - 4 -1.9 -4.7 +2.8
  Feb 04, 2025 302   Western Michigan W 94-69 82%     11 - 10 6 - 4 +14.6 +13.7 +0.3
  Feb 08, 2025 141   Appalachian St. L 59-72 53%     11 - 11 -14.4 -4.3 -11.6
  Feb 11, 2025 301   @ Bowling Green W 86-81 68%     12 - 11 7 - 4 -0.3 +3.6 -4.3
  Feb 14, 2025 137   @ Kent St. L 75-76 34%     12 - 12 7 - 5 +2.8 +9.3 -6.5
  Feb 18, 2025 215   Central Michigan W 84-82 68%     13 - 12 8 - 5 -3.3 +10.0 -13.2
  Feb 22, 2025 102   Akron L 81-83 44%    
  Feb 25, 2025 302   @ Western Michigan W 80-75 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 171   Miami (OH) W 80-78 60%    
  Mar 04, 2025 291   Eastern Michigan W 83-74 81%    
  Mar 07, 2025 221   @ Toledo W 83-82 49%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 3.7 5.5 2nd
3rd 1.6 21.0 23.5 4.7 50.8 3rd
4th 0.4 11.6 11.7 0.5 24.2 4th
5th 0.1 5.2 9.8 0.7 15.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.2 0.3 2.8 6th
7th 0.4 0.4 0.8 7th
8th 0.2 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.9 8.2 23.3 33.5 25.8 8.4 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 8.4% 22.3% 22.3% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.2 6.5
12-6 25.8% 16.2% 16.2% 14.7 0.1 1.5 2.3 0.3 21.6
11-7 33.5% 12.1% 12.1% 15.1 0.5 2.8 0.8 29.4
10-8 23.3% 9.3% 9.3% 15.3 0.1 1.4 0.7 21.1
9-9 8.2% 7.2% 7.2% 15.7 0.2 0.4 7.6
8-10 0.9% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.1 0.8
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.6 3.2 6.9 2.2 87.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 13.9 1.1 25.1 61.5 12.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.3%
Lose Out 0.7%