Marshall
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#199
Expected Predictive Rating-3.1#216
Pace72.3#87
Improvement+0.6#148

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#205
First Shot-1.3#217
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#172
Layup/Dunks-2.3#266
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#63
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#240
Freethrows+1.1#108
Improvement+0.3#157

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#194
First Shot-1.6#223
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#101
Layups/Dunks-1.4#232
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#302
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#49
Freethrows-1.9#309
Improvement+0.3#160
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 4.1% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 57.7% 64.6% 35.1%
.500 or above in Conference 71.9% 78.2% 50.9%
Conference Champion 1.9% 2.3% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round3.6% 4.1% 2.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Home) - 76.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 74 - 10
Quad 412 - 516 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 210   Toledo L 80-90 63%     0 - 1 -15.3 -4.4 -10.1
  Nov 11, 2024 328   Southern Indiana W 77-63 85%     1 - 1 +1.0 -1.5 +2.4
  Nov 16, 2024 350   Bellarmine W 83-62 90%     2 - 1 +5.4 -0.6 +6.0
  Nov 23, 2024 19   @ Purdue L 45-80 4%     2 - 2 -16.1 -18.5 +0.8
  Nov 27, 2024 224   South Carolina St. W 82-53 68%     3 - 2 +22.3 +8.4 +14.3
  Nov 30, 2024 133   @ Western Kentucky L 82-90 26%     3 - 3 -3.2 +5.2 -7.5
  Dec 04, 2024 285   Morehead St. W 80-77 78%     4 - 3 -6.8 +4.2 -11.0
  Dec 07, 2024 141   @ UNC Wilmington L 69-78 28%     4 - 4 -4.9 -5.5 +0.9
  Dec 11, 2024 178   @ Wright St. L 79-88 35%     4 - 5 -6.9 -0.9 -5.3
  Dec 14, 2024 152   Ohio W 79-70 53%     5 - 5 +6.3 +2.2 +3.9
  Dec 21, 2024 274   @ Southern Miss L 66-68 55%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -5.1 +5.6 -11.1
  Dec 28, 2024 179   @ Elon L 59-73 35%     5 - 7 -11.9 -12.1 +0.0
  Jan 02, 2025 158   Texas St. W 77-71 54%     6 - 7 1 - 1 +3.1 +5.6 -2.1
  Jan 04, 2025 120   Troy L 57-58 44%     6 - 8 1 - 2 -1.4 -7.5 +6.0
  Jan 09, 2025 126   James Madison W 80-78 45%     7 - 8 2 - 2 +1.3 +4.9 -3.6
  Jan 11, 2025 280   Georgia Southern W 81-73 77%    
  Jan 16, 2025 126   @ James Madison L 70-77 25%    
  Jan 18, 2025 287   @ Coastal Carolina W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 23, 2025 276   @ Georgia St. W 75-74 55%    
  Jan 25, 2025 280   @ Georgia Southern W 78-76 57%    
  Jan 30, 2025 276   Georgia St. W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 287   Coastal Carolina W 73-65 76%    
  Feb 05, 2025 103   Arkansas St. L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 13, 2025 109   @ South Alabama L 64-73 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 306   @ Louisiana W 76-73 62%    
  Feb 20, 2025 297   @ Old Dominion W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 159   @ Appalachian St. L 66-71 32%    
  Feb 25, 2025 297   Old Dominion W 79-70 78%    
  Feb 28, 2025 159   Appalachian St. W 69-68 54%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 2.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.4 2.3 0.2 8.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.9 4.2 0.7 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.7 4.9 6.7 1.3 0.0 13.6 5th
6th 0.4 4.5 8.3 2.7 0.1 16.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.9 8.1 4.0 0.3 15.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 5.9 3.7 0.4 11.2 8th
9th 0.3 3.2 3.4 0.5 7.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 2.8 0.6 4.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.9 0.9 0.0 3.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.0 1.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.5 8.2 13.1 17.4 18.7 15.8 11.3 5.9 2.2 0.6 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 85.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 86.0% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 35.5% 0.8    0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1
13-5 8.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 17.9% 17.9% 12.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.6% 20.6% 20.6% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-4 2.2% 14.5% 14.5% 13.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.8
13-5 5.9% 9.2% 9.2% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 5.3
12-6 11.3% 6.5% 6.5% 14.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 10.6
11-7 15.8% 5.7% 5.7% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 14.9
10-8 18.7% 2.5% 2.5% 15.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 18.2
9-9 17.4% 1.5% 1.5% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 17.1
8-10 13.1% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.1 0.2 12.9
7-11 8.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.2
6-12 4.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.5
5-13 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 14.6 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 0.5 96.3 0.0%