Marshall
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#182
Expected Predictive Rating-4.2#237
Pace74.6#55
Improvement+0.6#143

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#195
First Shot-0.7#197
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#200
Layup/Dunks-3.6#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#114
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#189
Freethrows+2.1#73
Improvement+1.0#103

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#174
First Shot+0.6#150
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#225
Layups/Dunks-0.6#191
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#276
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#18
Freethrows-4.4#348
Improvement-0.4#214
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.4% 8.0% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 61.9% 67.6% 41.3%
.500 or above in Conference 69.2% 71.8% 59.5%
Conference Champion 9.2% 10.4% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.5% 3.1%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round7.3% 7.9% 5.1%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Home) - 78.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 75 - 10
Quad 412 - 516 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 209   Toledo L 80-90 65%     0 - 1 -15.0 -4.3 -9.9
  Nov 11, 2024 289   Southern Indiana W 77-63 80%     1 - 1 +4.3 -1.0 +5.2
  Nov 16, 2024 322   Bellarmine W 83-62 85%     2 - 1 +8.8 +2.8 +6.0
  Nov 23, 2024 17   @ Purdue L 45-80 5%     2 - 2 -16.8 -19.5 +1.0
  Nov 27, 2024 305   South Carolina St. W 82-53 81%     3 - 2 +18.5 +7.0 +12.0
  Nov 30, 2024 113   @ Western Kentucky L 82-90 25%     3 - 3 -1.8 +5.1 -6.0
  Dec 04, 2024 271   Morehead St. W 75-67 78%    
  Dec 07, 2024 157   @ UNC Wilmington L 72-76 34%    
  Dec 11, 2024 141   @ Wright St. L 75-80 31%    
  Dec 14, 2024 154   Ohio W 79-77 56%    
  Dec 21, 2024 267   @ Southern Miss W 78-76 57%    
  Dec 28, 2024 174   @ Elon L 72-75 38%    
  Jan 02, 2025 145   Texas St. W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 04, 2025 126   Troy L 75-76 50%    
  Jan 09, 2025 116   James Madison L 77-78 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 224   Georgia Southern W 82-77 68%    
  Jan 16, 2025 116   @ James Madison L 74-81 27%    
  Jan 18, 2025 286   @ Coastal Carolina W 70-67 59%    
  Jan 23, 2025 228   @ Georgia St. L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 224   @ Georgia Southern L 79-80 46%    
  Jan 30, 2025 228   Georgia St. W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 286   Coastal Carolina W 73-64 77%    
  Feb 05, 2025 121   Arkansas St. L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 13, 2025 214   @ South Alabama L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 15, 2025 263   @ Louisiana W 79-77 56%    
  Feb 20, 2025 317   @ Old Dominion W 79-74 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 164   @ Appalachian St. L 67-71 38%    
  Feb 25, 2025 317   Old Dominion W 82-71 83%    
  Feb 28, 2025 164   Appalachian St. W 70-68 58%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.7 2.6 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 9.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.8 2.7 0.7 0.1 9.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.4 3.3 0.6 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.5 4.2 0.7 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.2 3.2 5.0 1.2 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 4.9 2.1 0.2 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 1.1 4.2 2.7 0.4 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.2 0.6 0.0 7.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.1 1.0 0.1 6.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.1 0.1 4.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.9 0.2 3.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 2.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.3 5.6 8.5 10.5 12.3 13.5 12.2 11.0 8.9 5.8 3.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 94.8% 1.5    1.3 0.2 0.0
15-3 79.2% 2.6    1.7 0.9 0.1
14-4 45.0% 2.6    1.1 1.1 0.4 0.1
13-5 18.6% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 4.9 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 62.2% 62.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 34.4% 34.4% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.6% 30.7% 30.7% 12.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1
15-3 3.3% 24.2% 24.2% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.5
14-4 5.8% 17.5% 17.5% 13.6 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.8
13-5 8.9% 16.0% 16.0% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 7.5
12-6 11.0% 10.3% 10.3% 14.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 9.8
11-7 12.2% 7.9% 7.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 11.2
10-8 13.5% 5.2% 5.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 12.8
9-9 12.3% 2.5% 2.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 12.0
8-10 10.5% 1.4% 1.4% 15.7 0.1 0.1 10.3
7-11 8.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.3
6-12 5.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.5
5-13 3.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-14 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.6 1.5 2.5 2.0 0.7 92.6 0.0%