Elon
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#158
Expected Predictive Rating+2.6#125
Pace63.5#311
Improvement-0.7#214

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#147
First Shot-2.8#262
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#15
Layup/Dunks-2.8#286
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#152
Freethrows+1.0#111
Improvement-0.8#230

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#188
First Shot+2.5#98
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#351
Layups/Dunks+3.2#71
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#204
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#291
Freethrows+2.1#52
Improvement+0.1#178
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 13.4% 9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.6 13.9
.500 or above 98.7% 99.4% 95.9%
.500 or above in Conference 94.2% 96.5% 84.1%
Conference Champion 18.1% 20.5% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round12.7% 13.4% 9.2%
Second Round0.7% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Monmouth (Home) - 81.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 35 - 66 - 8
Quad 414 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 27   @ North Carolina L 76-90 8%     0 - 1 +2.3 +7.4 -4.2
  Nov 15, 2024 243   @ Gardner-Webb L 79-80 58%     0 - 2 -2.8 +9.6 -12.5
  Nov 20, 2024 354   @ Northern Illinois W 75-48 85%     1 - 2 +16.2 +1.2 +16.0
  Nov 22, 2024 79   @ Notre Dame W 84-77 18%     2 - 2 +16.9 +21.3 -3.8
  Nov 29, 2024 201   Maine L 56-69 59%     2 - 3 -15.0 -10.1 -6.0
  Nov 30, 2024 292   Navy W 69-63 77%     3 - 3 -1.5 -6.3 +4.9
  Dec 01, 2024 265   @ Penn W 68-53 64%     4 - 3 +11.8 +3.5 +10.7
  Dec 07, 2024 131   Wofford W 79-56 54%     5 - 3 +22.2 +8.4 +15.4
  Dec 18, 2024 148   @ East Tennessee St. L 58-84 37%     5 - 4 -22.3 -9.0 -15.2
  Dec 21, 2024 127   UNC Greensboro W 73-69 54%     6 - 4 +3.4 +7.8 -3.9
  Dec 28, 2024 181   Marshall W 73-59 65%     7 - 4 +10.5 +0.4 +10.3
  Jan 02, 2025 322   @ N.C. A&T W 75-67 75%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +1.2 +7.1 -5.0
  Jan 04, 2025 254   Hampton W 70-62 79%     9 - 4 2 - 0 -0.1 -1.1 +1.6
  Jan 09, 2025 193   @ William & Mary L 65-78 47%     9 - 5 2 - 1 -12.0 -1.8 -11.9
  Jan 13, 2025 250   Campbell W 81-68 78%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +5.3 +13.2 -6.7
  Jan 16, 2025 187   @ Drexel W 65-54 46%     11 - 5 4 - 1 +12.4 +8.5 +6.2
  Jan 18, 2025 195   @ Delaware L 77-79 48%     11 - 6 4 - 2 -1.0 -0.2 -0.8
  Jan 23, 2025 268   Monmouth W 74-65 81%    
  Jan 25, 2025 124   College of Charleston W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 30, 2025 176   Hofstra W 65-61 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 198   Northeastern W 73-68 69%    
  Feb 06, 2025 250   @ Campbell W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 124   @ College of Charleston L 72-77 32%    
  Feb 13, 2025 322   N.C. A&T W 81-69 88%    
  Feb 15, 2025 134   @ UNC Wilmington L 68-72 35%    
  Feb 20, 2025 175   Towson W 66-62 65%    
  Feb 22, 2025 193   William & Mary W 79-74 67%    
  Feb 27, 2025 268   @ Monmouth W 71-67 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 320   @ Stony Brook W 72-65 73%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 5.8 7.2 3.6 0.6 18.1 1st
2nd 0.7 5.8 7.8 2.2 0.1 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.1 9.2 3.3 0.1 16.7 3rd
4th 1.4 7.8 4.5 0.3 13.9 4th
5th 0.3 4.9 5.6 0.7 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 5.4 1.3 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.5 2.1 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 2.5 0.2 4.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.7 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.2 10th
11th 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.1 8.5 14.2 19.5 21.0 17.2 9.5 3.7 0.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.6    0.6
15-3 96.8% 3.6    3.0 0.6 0.0
14-4 75.6% 7.2    3.6 3.0 0.6 0.0
13-5 33.5% 5.8    1.2 2.3 1.8 0.5
12-6 4.3% 0.9    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.1% 18.1 8.3 6.0 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.6% 32.1% 32.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 3.7% 27.5% 27.5% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 2.7
14-4 9.5% 20.6% 20.6% 13.1 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 7.5
13-5 17.2% 18.5% 18.5% 13.5 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.2 14.0
12-6 21.0% 13.7% 13.7% 13.8 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.4 18.1
11-7 19.5% 9.0% 9.0% 14.1 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 17.7
10-8 14.2% 7.1% 7.1% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 13.2
9-9 8.5% 5.5% 5.5% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 8.1
8-10 4.1% 3.6% 3.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.0
7-11 1.4% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.0 1.3
6-12 0.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 1.2 4.1 5.5 1.8 0.0 87.4 0.0%