Elon
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#205
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#226
Pace68.5#211
Improvement+0.7#115

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#175
First Shot-0.8#208
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#136
Layup/Dunks-2.8#271
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#250
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#79
Freethrows+0.4#162
Improvement+0.2#150

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#240
First Shot+2.1#112
After Offensive Rebounds-4.2#346
Layups/Dunks+7.7#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#269
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.0#351
Freethrows+2.6#53
Improvement+0.5#112
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 6.8% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.2 14.1
.500 or above 48.3% 74.6% 45.9%
.500 or above in Conference 58.3% 75.3% 56.8%
Conference Champion 5.9% 12.4% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 1.8% 5.0%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round4.8% 6.8% 4.6%
Second Round0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Notre Dame (Away) - 8.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 74 - 10
Quad 411 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 9   @ North Carolina L 76-90 3%     0 - 1 +6.5 +6.8 +0.6
  Nov 15, 2024 218   @ Gardner-Webb L 79-80 40%     0 - 2 -0.7 +11.1 -11.8
  Nov 20, 2024 326   @ Northern Illinois W 75-48 65%     1 - 2 +20.9 +3.8 +18.2
  Nov 22, 2024 52   @ Notre Dame L 63-77 8%    
  Nov 29, 2024 235   Maine W 68-66 55%    
  Nov 30, 2024 310   Navy W 75-69 73%    
  Dec 01, 2024 266   @ Penn W 74-73 50%    
  Dec 07, 2024 200   Wofford W 72-69 61%    
  Dec 18, 2024 186   @ East Tennessee St. L 71-75 36%    
  Dec 21, 2024 162   UNC Greensboro W 70-69 54%    
  Dec 28, 2024 191   Marshall W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 02, 2025 289   @ N.C. A&T W 78-77 55%    
  Jan 04, 2025 308   Hampton W 73-64 79%    
  Jan 09, 2025 210   @ William & Mary L 77-80 40%    
  Jan 11, 2025 256   Campbell W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 16, 2025 145   @ Drexel L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 18, 2025 216   @ Delaware L 73-76 40%    
  Jan 23, 2025 278   Monmouth W 78-71 72%    
  Jan 25, 2025 111   College of Charleston L 75-78 40%    
  Jan 30, 2025 133   Hofstra L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 01, 2025 155   Northeastern W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 06, 2025 256   @ Campbell L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 111   @ College of Charleston L 72-81 22%    
  Feb 13, 2025 289   N.C. A&T W 81-74 74%    
  Feb 15, 2025 150   @ UNC Wilmington L 72-78 31%    
  Feb 20, 2025 126   Towson L 67-68 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 210   William & Mary W 80-77 60%    
  Feb 27, 2025 278   @ Monmouth W 75-74 53%    
  Mar 01, 2025 302   @ Stony Brook W 74-72 58%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 5.9 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 2.3 2.1 0.5 0.1 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 3.5 2.3 0.5 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.2 2.9 0.4 0.1 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.7 3.8 0.7 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.4 3.3 4.5 1.2 0.1 9.5 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 5.1 2.1 0.1 9.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 4.3 2.8 0.3 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.7 3.7 0.5 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.3 1.0 0.0 6.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.3 1.4 0.1 6.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.5 1.5 0.2 5.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.2 0.3 3.8 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.6 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.6 5.7 7.9 10.0 11.6 12.6 11.8 11.1 8.7 6.0 4.3 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 91.4% 1.0    0.8 0.2
15-3 77.0% 1.7    1.0 0.7 0.1
14-4 38.1% 1.7    0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 15.5% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 2.9 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 34.8% 34.8% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.1% 12.4% 12.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
15-3 2.2% 19.2% 19.2% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8
14-4 4.3% 21.8% 21.8% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 3.4
13-5 6.0% 9.9% 9.9% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.4
12-6 8.7% 11.3% 11.3% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 7.7
11-7 11.1% 5.8% 5.8% 14.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 10.5
10-8 11.8% 3.7% 3.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 11.4
9-9 12.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.4
8-10 11.6% 0.9% 0.9% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5
7-11 10.0% 0.7% 0.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 9.9
6-12 7.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.9
5-13 5.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.7
4-14 3.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.6
3-15 1.8% 1.8
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.5 95.2 0.0%