Elon
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#180
Expected Predictive Rating+2.2#135
Pace65.4#266
Improvement-2.1#291

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#166
First Shot-2.2#237
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#48
Layup/Dunks-1.6#235
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#272
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#187
Freethrows+1.2#106
Improvement-1.8#299

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#206
First Shot+1.5#121
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#344
Layups/Dunks+2.8#75
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#239
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#297
Freethrows+2.2#49
Improvement-0.3#199
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.7% 9.9% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 83.8% 89.9% 72.9%
.500 or above in Conference 76.9% 80.1% 71.2%
Conference Champion 11.7% 13.2% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.2% 2.2%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round8.7% 9.9% 6.4%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Home) - 64.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 34 - 65 - 8
Quad 413 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 22   @ North Carolina L 76-90 5%     0 - 1 +3.5 +5.9 -1.6
  Nov 15, 2024 231   @ Gardner-Webb L 79-80 49%     0 - 2 -1.6 +9.6 -11.2
  Nov 20, 2024 349   @ Northern Illinois W 75-48 78%     1 - 2 +17.9 +2.3 +16.7
  Nov 22, 2024 82   @ Notre Dame W 84-77 16%     2 - 2 +16.8 +23.5 -6.0
  Nov 29, 2024 216   Maine L 56-69 57%     2 - 3 -15.9 -11.2 -5.8
  Nov 30, 2024 317   Navy W 69-63 77%     3 - 3 -2.8 -6.8 +4.1
  Dec 01, 2024 276   @ Penn W 68-53 59%     4 - 3 +11.7 +3.4 +10.8
  Dec 07, 2024 152   Wofford W 79-56 57%     5 - 3 +20.2 +7.7 +14.0
  Dec 18, 2024 142   @ East Tennessee St. L 58-84 32%     5 - 4 -22.1 -9.2 -14.7
  Dec 21, 2024 158   UNC Greensboro W 73-69 58%     6 - 4 +0.9 +7.6 -6.3
  Dec 28, 2024 201   Marshall W 75-71 64%    
  Jan 02, 2025 324   @ N.C. A&T W 79-74 69%    
  Jan 04, 2025 248   Hampton W 72-65 74%    
  Jan 09, 2025 219   @ William & Mary L 78-79 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 297   Campbell W 73-64 81%    
  Jan 16, 2025 153   @ Drexel L 65-69 35%    
  Jan 18, 2025 215   @ Delaware L 75-76 45%    
  Jan 23, 2025 261   Monmouth W 75-68 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 120   College of Charleston L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 30, 2025 154   Hofstra W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 01, 2025 165   Northeastern W 71-69 59%    
  Feb 06, 2025 297   @ Campbell W 70-67 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 120   @ College of Charleston L 71-78 28%    
  Feb 13, 2025 324   N.C. A&T W 82-71 85%    
  Feb 15, 2025 134   @ UNC Wilmington L 69-75 31%    
  Feb 20, 2025 214   Towson W 66-61 66%    
  Feb 22, 2025 219   William & Mary W 81-76 68%    
  Feb 27, 2025 261   @ Monmouth W 72-71 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 306   @ Stony Brook W 74-70 64%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.8 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 11.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.1 4.8 2.7 0.6 0.1 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.1 5.4 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 5.9 3.2 0.4 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 5.3 4.0 0.6 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.3 3.4 4.7 1.1 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 4.8 1.8 0.1 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.6 2.4 0.2 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 2.5 1.0 0.0 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.2 0.1 3.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.2 2.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 3.9 6.5 9.4 12.1 14.2 14.7 12.9 10.2 7.0 3.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 94.3% 1.5    1.3 0.2
15-3 83.1% 3.0    2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 54.4% 3.8    1.7 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0
13-5 22.2% 2.3    0.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.2% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.7% 11.7 6.2 3.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 34.2% 34.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.5% 33.6% 33.6% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.6% 26.0% 26.0% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2
15-3 3.6% 20.8% 20.8% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.9
14-4 7.0% 20.1% 20.1% 13.4 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 5.6
13-5 10.2% 15.9% 15.9% 13.7 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 8.5
12-6 12.9% 12.0% 12.0% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 11.4
11-7 14.7% 8.4% 8.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 13.4
10-8 14.2% 5.3% 5.3% 14.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 13.5
9-9 12.1% 3.4% 3.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 11.7
8-10 9.4% 2.4% 2.4% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 9.2
7-11 6.5% 1.5% 1.5% 15.5 0.1 0.0 6.4
6-12 3.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.9
5-13 2.1% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.7 2.4 3.4 1.9 0.2 91.3 0.0%