Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
116 UNC Wilmington 29.6%   15   19 - 6 11 - 3 22 - 7 14 - 4 +2.8      +3.3 86 -0.5 186 64.5 282 +3.6 113 +3.9 2
143 College of Charleston 18.4%   20 - 7 11 - 4 22 - 8 13 - 5 +1.0      +0.3 167 +0.7 153 74.4 43 +5.2 92 +3.4 3
157 Towson 18.0%   17 - 10 13 - 2 19 - 11 15 - 3 +0.4      -1.9 225 +2.3 102 60.5 351 +2.1 133 +8.0 1
175 Elon 6.0%   15 - 11 8 - 7 17 - 12 10 - 8 -0.9      +0.2 169 -1.0 202 63.6 303 -0.2 171 -2.1 7
183 Campbell 9.3%   13 - 13 10 - 5 14 - 15 11 - 7 -1.2      -3.0 257 +1.8 123 65.6 254 -3.6 224 +0.6 5
195 Drexel 4.4%   13 - 14 6 - 9 15 - 15 8 - 10 -1.9      -2.9 250 +1.0 147 60.5 350 -3.4 222 -4.9 10
212 Northeastern 3.6%   15 - 13 7 - 8 17 - 14 9 - 9 -2.6      -1.7 221 -0.9 198 68.6 170 -1.9 193 -3.6 8
216 William & Mary 5.4%   14 - 11 10 - 4 16 - 13 12 - 6 -3.0      +0.3 166 -3.3 270 76.8 19 -1.0 178 +2.1 4
227 Hofstra 1.6%   10 - 16 4 - 11 12 - 17 6 - 12 -3.6      -5.7 318 +2.2 106 61.7 343 -3.9 231 -8.6 12
244 Delaware 1.2%   10 - 16 5 - 10 11 - 18 6 - 12 -4.5      +1.3 132 -5.8 333 74.5 40 -5.5 262 -7.2 11
250 Hampton 1.4%   11 - 13 6 - 8 13 - 15 8 - 10 -4.9      -2.9 254 -2.0 225 64.6 277 -3.2 217 -4.9 9
255 Monmouth 1.2%   10 - 18 8 - 7 11 - 20 9 - 9 -5.2      -2.2 232 -3.1 255 68.8 164 -5.1 254 -2.1 6
316 N.C. A&T 0.0%   5 - 22 2 - 13 6 - 24 3 - 15 -9.2      -5.8 322 -3.4 275 73.4 53 -12.1 334 -13.1 13
320 Stony Brook 0.0%   5 - 21 2 - 12 6 - 24 3 - 15 -9.4      -2.7 246 -6.7 347 63.6 302 -10.5 327 -13.2 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
UNC Wilmington 2.0 25.7 55.5 14.6 3.4 0.9
College of Charleston 2.6 6.8 37.9 45.6 7.8 2.0
Towson 1.1 92.7 6.5 0.7 0.0
Elon 5.8 0.2 11.8 23.3 41.0 18.9 3.5 1.3 0.0
Campbell 4.2 0.3 6.9 14.3 39.0 34.6 4.9
Drexel 8.5 3.0 19.6 29.4 26.2 19.8 2.1 0.0
Northeastern 7.4 0.6 4.5 15.8 33.4 27.2 16.0 2.5 0.0
William & Mary 3.9 2.1 8.2 16.7 46.7 21.0 5.2
Hofstra 11.2 0.2 2.3 17.9 39.5 37.5 2.5 0.1
Delaware 11.1 0.0 0.9 3.3 17.8 46.0 31.7 0.3
Hampton 9.0 0.0 0.3 2.5 9.3 20.4 25.0 37.3 5.0 0.1
Monmouth 6.8 0.0 2.8 10.1 29.0 33.1 15.8 9.0 0.3
N.C. A&T 13.4 0.2 4.8 52.0 42.9
Stony Brook 13.2 0.5 1.3 10.0 56.5 31.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UNC Wilmington 14 - 4 1.3 10.2 30.0 39.0 19.5
College of Charleston 13 - 5 3.7 22.4 45.5 28.4
Towson 15 - 3 4.2 23.0 46.1 26.6
Elon 10 - 8 5.0 24.3 42.8 28.0
Campbell 11 - 7 17.7 40.9 32.6 8.9
Drexel 8 - 10 4.2 24.1 44.6 27.2
Northeastern 9 - 9 6.5 33.7 43.5 16.3
William & Mary 12 - 6 13.1 35.5 34.1 14.9 2.4
Hofstra 6 - 12 5.2 28.8 44.2 21.7
Delaware 6 - 12 29.1 49.4 19.2 2.2
Hampton 8 - 10 10.5 38.3 35.5 13.8 2.0
Monmouth 9 - 9 20.9 42.2 30.2 6.8
N.C. A&T 3 - 15 25.6 50.2 21.4 2.8
Stony Brook 3 - 15 21.1 38.4 28.9 10.2 1.5




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UNC Wilmington 25.7% 6.1 15.9 3.2 0.4 0.1
College of Charleston 6.8% 0.4 2.9 3.2 0.3 0.1
Towson 92.7% 70.2 18.5 3.6 0.4 0.1
Elon
Campbell 0.3% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1
Drexel
Northeastern
William & Mary 2.1% 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1
Hofstra
Delaware
Hampton
Monmouth
N.C. A&T
Stony Brook


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UNC Wilmington 29.6% 29.6% 0.0% 15   2.6 11.4 13.2 2.4 0.0 70.4 0.0%
College of Charleston 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 0.8 5.1 9.3 3.2 0.0 81.6 0.0%
Towson 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.4 3.6 9.1 4.7 0.2 82.1 0.0%
Elon 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.1 1.3 2.9 1.7 0.1 94.0 0.0%
Campbell 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.6 4.4 4.3 90.7 0.0%
Drexel 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.1 1.0 2.0 1.4 95.6 0.0%
Northeastern 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.0 0.9 96.4 0.0%
William & Mary 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 3.4 1.1 94.6 0.0%
Hofstra 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 1.1 98.4 0.0%
Delaware 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 98.8 0.0%
Hampton 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 0.8 98.6 0.0%
Monmouth 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.2 98.8 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Stony Brook 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UNC Wilmington 29.6% 0.0% 29.6% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 18.4% 0.0% 18.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 18.0% 0.0% 17.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 6.0% 0.0% 6.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 9.3% 1.3% 8.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 4.4% 0.4% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 3.6% 0.2% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 5.4% 0.2% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 1.6% 0.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 1.4% 0.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.6% 1.0 2.4 97.6
2nd Round 4.4% 0.0 95.6 4.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0