Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
111 College of Charleston 22.5%   13   4 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 9 12 - 6 +3.8      +3.1 99 +0.7 144 74.6 64 +9.0 60 0.0 1
126 Towson 15.1%   2 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 11 12 - 6 +2.3      -0.1 176 +2.3 102 61.3 352 +6.2 89 0.0 1
133 Hofstra 13.9%   3 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 +1.9      +0.1 173 +1.8 116 65.0 302 +11.3 40 0.0 1
145 Drexel 11.5%   2 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 7 +0.9      -0.7 195 +1.6 123 62.5 340 -0.6 203 0.0 1
150 UNC Wilmington 10.7%   2 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 +0.4      +1.9 122 -1.4 219 69.4 177 +9.9 54 0.0 1
155 Northeastern 9.8%   3 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 13 10 - 8 +0.3      +0.8 156 -0.5 188 67.9 226 +1.6 167 0.0 1
205 Elon 4.8%   1 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -2.2      0.0 175 -2.2 240 68.5 211 -3.0 226 0.0 1
210 William & Mary 4.1%   2 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -2.4      +1.0 148 -3.3 290 75.9 48 -4.6 249 0.0 1
216 Delaware 3.8%   2 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -2.6      -2.2 235 -0.4 181 74.4 66 -4.9 253 0.0 1
256 Campbell 1.8%   1 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -4.9      -2.8 258 -2.1 238 66.3 271 -10.5 310 0.0 1
278 Monmouth 0.7%   0 - 6 0 - 0 9 - 22 7 - 11 -6.0      -3.1 266 -2.9 268 71.9 103 -12.7 323 0.0 1
289 N.C. A&T 0.9%   2 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 19 7 - 11 -6.3      -2.7 253 -3.7 299 77.7 29 -1.0 210 0.0 1
302 Stony Brook 0.4%   1 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 12 -7.6      -3.1 264 -4.5 319 67.9 227 -0.4 197 0.0 1
308 Hampton 0.4%   1 - 3 0 - 0 7 - 18 5 - 13 -8.2      -5.0 312 -3.2 284 63.2 331 -6.5 277 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
College of Charleston 3.4 30.1 18.3 14.0 10.9 7.8 6.1 4.3 3.2 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1
Towson 4.1 21.6 16.3 13.1 11.4 9.9 7.4 6.0 4.8 3.5 2.3 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.2
Hofstra 4.2 19.2 16.5 14.1 11.3 9.8 7.8 6.2 4.8 3.7 2.6 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.3
Drexel 4.7 16.3 14.0 12.7 11.6 10.1 7.9 7.3 5.3 4.9 3.6 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.5
UNC Wilmington 5.1 14.3 12.2 12.2 10.8 10.1 8.9 7.4 6.5 5.8 4.3 2.9 2.2 1.6 0.7
Northeastern 5.5 10.8 10.6 11.8 11.1 10.7 9.5 9.1 7.5 5.6 4.8 3.8 2.3 1.8 0.6
Elon 6.9 5.9 6.5 8.1 8.8 9.1 9.5 9.5 8.6 8.7 6.9 6.5 5.6 3.8 2.6
William & Mary 7.3 4.1 5.7 6.9 8.1 8.9 9.0 9.6 9.9 9.2 8.4 7.5 5.7 4.4 2.7
Delaware 7.6 4.0 5.1 5.9 6.8 8.1 9.3 9.2 9.6 9.7 9.0 8.0 6.6 5.3 3.4
Campbell 9.1 1.3 2.4 3.5 4.1 5.5 6.9 7.4 8.7 10.1 9.7 10.6 11.4 9.7 8.6
Monmouth 9.7 0.6 1.1 2.3 3.2 4.4 5.8 6.7 8.4 9.7 11.4 11.4 12.8 11.9 10.3
N.C. A&T 9.5 1.1 1.5 2.4 3.2 4.6 5.6 7.2 8.8 10.4 11.3 11.3 11.5 10.8 10.1
Stony Brook 10.6 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 3.1 3.9 4.8 6.9 8.1 9.6 12.1 14.5 15.3 17.3
Hampton 11.0 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.0 3.1 4.4 5.9 7.4 9.5 11.7 14.1 17.7 20.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
College of Charleston 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.6 5.8 9.2 11.4 13.6 14.7 14.0 11.5 7.6 3.7 1.1
Towson 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.1 3.6 5.9 8.3 10.8 12.3 13.9 13.3 11.0 9.2 5.0 2.3 0.6
Hofstra 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.0 2.2 4.0 5.6 8.6 11.3 12.8 13.3 13.8 12.0 8.0 4.1 1.9 0.5
Drexel 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.5 5.2 7.1 10.0 11.3 13.0 13.1 11.7 9.6 7.0 3.5 1.3 0.4
UNC Wilmington 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.4 3.7 6.1 8.9 10.4 12.0 12.4 12.4 11.5 7.6 5.9 3.0 1.2 0.4
Northeastern 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.5 4.8 6.9 9.1 11.8 13.7 12.9 11.9 10.1 7.0 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.1
Elon 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.6 5.7 7.9 10.0 11.6 12.6 11.8 11.1 8.7 6.0 4.3 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.0
William & Mary 9 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.0 6.4 9.2 11.3 12.4 13.2 11.9 10.4 7.4 5.4 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Delaware 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.8 4.8 7.3 10.1 11.8 12.5 12.6 11.7 9.0 6.6 4.5 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Campbell 7 - 11 0.3 1.2 3.6 6.4 8.4 11.5 12.5 12.4 11.5 10.5 8.3 5.8 3.7 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1
Monmouth 7 - 11 0.5 1.6 4.0 7.3 10.5 12.8 14.1 12.9 12.2 9.5 6.6 4.3 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.1
N.C. A&T 7 - 11 0.3 1.3 3.4 7.3 9.7 12.0 13.7 13.8 12.3 9.9 6.6 4.5 2.7 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Stony Brook 6 - 12 0.9 3.3 7.1 9.9 13.4 14.3 13.8 12.1 9.3 6.5 4.1 2.6 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hampton 5 - 13 1.2 4.5 8.2 12.1 14.0 14.6 13.7 11.1 8.3 5.3 3.3 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
College of Charleston 30.1% 19.7 7.8 2.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Towson 21.6% 13.1 6.4 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Hofstra 19.2% 11.1 5.7 1.9 0.4 0.1
Drexel 16.3% 9.4 4.9 1.7 0.4 0.1
UNC Wilmington 14.3% 8.2 4.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Northeastern 10.8% 6.3 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Elon 5.9% 2.9 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
William & Mary 4.1% 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
Delaware 4.0% 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Campbell 1.3% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Monmouth 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 1.1% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stony Brook 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hampton 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
College of Charleston 22.5% 22.3% 0.2% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.9 9.2 7.5 2.6 0.6 0.0 77.5 0.3%
Towson 15.1% 15.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.7 5.3 3.0 1.0 0.1 84.9 0.1%
Hofstra 13.9% 13.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 5.1 5.0 2.1 0.6 0.1 86.1 0.1%
Drexel 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.9 3.0 1.4 0.6 88.5 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 10.7% 10.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.6 2.5 1.0 0.3 89.3 0.1%
Northeastern 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.3 2.9 1.2 0.3 90.2 0.0%
Elon 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.5 95.2 0.0%
William & Mary 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.6 95.9 0.0%
Delaware 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.5 96.2 0.0%
Campbell 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 98.2 0.0%
Monmouth 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 99.3 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 99.1 0.0%
Stony Brook 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%
Hampton 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
College of Charleston 22.5% 0.2% 22.5% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 15.1% 0.1% 15.1% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 13.9% 0.1% 13.8% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 11.5% 0.2% 11.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 10.7% 0.1% 10.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 9.8% 0.1% 9.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 4.8% 0.2% 4.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 4.1% 0.2% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 3.8% 0.2% 3.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 1.8% 0.3% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.9% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.5 0.5
1st Round 99.1% 1.0 0.9 98.8 0.2
2nd Round 13.2% 0.1 86.8 13.2
Sweet Sixteen 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.9
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0