Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
121 College of Charleston 21.6%   13   7 - 3 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 6 +2.4      +1.0 143 +1.5 124 74.7 50 +7.0 84 0.0 2
134 UNC Wilmington 17.6%   8 - 3 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 6 +1.6      +2.6 106 -1.0 200 66.4 246 +3.3 119 0.0 2
149 Hofstra 12.1%   6 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 +0.3      -2.7 245 +3.0 96 63.7 313 +4.7 103 0.0 2
154 Drexel 11.7%   7 - 5 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 7 +0.1      -0.6 187 +0.7 144 61.6 344 -0.1 169 0.0 2
166 Northeastern 9.8%   8 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 8 -0.5      -2.1 229 +1.7 119 70.6 133 +0.9 155 0.0 2
180 Elon 8.6%   6 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 8 -1.0      +0.2 168 -1.2 206 65.3 268 +2.1 137 0.0 2
208 Towson 5.3%   4 - 8 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 9 -2.4      -3.4 271 +1.0 138 58.8 360 -4.4 241 0.0 2
215 Delaware 4.7%   5 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -2.7      +0.6 153 -3.2 278 73.8 65 -3.5 223 0.0 2
221 William & Mary 3.6%   3 - 7 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -3.3      +2.4 113 -5.7 339 76.6 27 -5.9 268 0.0 2
250 Hampton 2.1%   4 - 5 1 - 0 12 - 15 8 - 10 -4.9      -2.7 242 -2.2 235 64.2 300 -1.3 184 +3.0 1
262 Monmouth 1.5%   2 - 10 0 - 0 9 - 22 7 - 11 -5.4      -2.3 237 -3.1 270 68.8 189 -9.8 320 0.0 2
296 Campbell 0.7%   3 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 12 -7.3      -5.2 320 -2.1 232 66.3 252 -11.0 329 0.0 2
306 Stony Brook 0.4%   3 - 8 0 - 0 9 - 21 6 - 12 -8.0      -3.0 259 -5.0 325 67.8 214 -6.6 277 0.0 2
324 N.C. A&T 0.2%   2 - 10 0 - 1 8 - 22 5 - 13 -9.2      -4.2 291 -5.0 326 79.5 13 -12.6 337 -17.1 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
College of Charleston 3.3 31.0 18.6 13.8 10.5 7.8 5.9 4.3 3.1 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1
UNC Wilmington 3.7 25.1 17.8 14.0 11.3 8.8 7.0 5.1 3.9 2.6 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1
Hofstra 4.5 17.5 15.2 13.2 11.4 9.9 8.5 6.6 5.4 4.2 3.2 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.4
Drexel 4.5 17.3 15.1 13.5 11.4 9.6 8.2 7.0 5.5 4.4 3.2 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.3
Northeastern 5.3 11.2 11.8 11.8 11.3 11.1 9.9 8.6 7.4 5.6 4.5 3.2 2.1 1.2 0.5
Elon 5.3 11.7 11.9 12.0 11.3 10.6 9.8 8.2 7.0 5.8 4.2 3.2 2.2 1.4 0.7
Towson 6.6 5.5 7.2 8.4 9.3 10.0 10.3 10.0 9.9 8.5 7.0 5.6 4.2 2.7 1.4
Delaware 7.2 4.4 5.9 7.0 8.1 8.8 9.5 9.8 9.8 9.3 8.4 7.1 5.7 4.1 2.2
William & Mary 7.8 3.3 4.7 5.9 6.6 7.6 8.4 9.2 10.0 9.8 9.8 8.7 7.3 5.7 3.1
Hampton 8.3 2.0 3.1 4.4 5.4 6.6 7.9 9.0 10.1 11.0 11.0 10.4 8.8 6.7 3.6
Monmouth 9.0 1.3 2.4 3.5 4.4 5.6 6.7 8.0 9.4 9.8 11.1 11.2 10.5 9.3 6.6
Campbell 10.6 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.7 4.9 6.5 8.4 10.5 12.5 14.6 16.3 15.7
Stony Brook 10.6 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.6 3.8 5.0 6.5 8.6 10.4 12.6 14.6 16.4 15.7
N.C. A&T 11.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.9 4.2 6.2 8.8 11.7 15.2 20.2 26.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
College of Charleston 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.8 6.2 9.7 13.0 15.1 16.2 13.8 10.1 5.7 2.5 0.5
UNC Wilmington 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.8 4.9 7.8 11.1 13.8 15.5 14.8 12.6 8.2 4.5 1.7 0.3
Hofstra 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.6 7.0 10.2 12.9 14.6 14.3 12.6 9.4 5.9 2.9 1.0 0.2
Drexel 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.5 7.5 10.2 12.8 14.3 14.4 12.5 9.2 5.9 2.9 1.0 0.2
Northeastern 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.9 6.5 9.5 12.7 14.6 15.0 13.1 10.1 6.5 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.1
Elon 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.9 6.6 9.3 12.2 14.1 14.5 13.2 10.2 6.7 3.7 1.6 0.5 0.1
Towson 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 4.2 6.8 10.2 13.2 14.9 14.4 12.3 9.4 6.0 3.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Delaware 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.1 5.7 8.9 11.7 13.5 14.3 13.3 10.8 7.7 4.9 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
William & Mary 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.4 7.6 10.5 12.9 14.0 13.6 11.8 9.0 6.2 3.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Hampton 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 2.5 5.5 8.9 12.6 14.7 15.0 13.1 10.5 7.5 4.6 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Monmouth 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.3 7.5 10.8 13.5 14.6 13.6 11.7 9.0 5.9 3.6 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Campbell 6 - 12 0.4 2.0 5.0 9.2 13.1 15.2 15.2 13.5 10.4 7.2 4.4 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stony Brook 6 - 12 0.4 1.9 5.0 9.1 13.0 15.5 15.5 13.8 10.3 7.1 4.1 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 5 - 13 0.9 3.7 8.5 13.7 16.7 17.1 14.6 11.0 6.8 3.9 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
College of Charleston 31.0% 19.9 8.0 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
UNC Wilmington 25.1% 15.3 7.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Hofstra 17.5% 10.1 5.2 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Drexel 17.3% 9.9 5.2 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Northeastern 11.2% 5.9 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Elon 11.7% 6.2 3.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Towson 5.5% 2.7 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Delaware 4.4% 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
William & Mary 3.3% 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Hampton 2.0% 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 1.3% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Campbell 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stony Brook 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
College of Charleston 21.6% 21.6% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 6.7 9.2 4.4 0.6 0.0 78.4 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 17.6% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.8 6.9 5.8 1.7 0.1 82.4 0.0%
Hofstra 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.4 4.2 1.4 0.1 87.9 0.0%
Drexel 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.2 4.7 2.6 0.4 88.3 0.0%
Northeastern 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.0 2.3 0.3 90.2 0.0%
Elon 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.6 3.4 1.7 0.2 91.4 0.0%
Towson 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 1.3 2.2 1.4 94.7 0.0%
Delaware 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.8 0.6 95.3 0.0%
William & Mary 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.0 96.4 0.0%
Hampton 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.5 97.9 0.0%
Monmouth 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 98.5 0.0%
Campbell 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.3 0.0%
Stony Brook 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
College of Charleston 21.6% 0.0% 21.6% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 17.6% 0.0% 17.6% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 12.1% 0.0% 12.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 11.7% 0.1% 11.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 9.8% 0.0% 9.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 8.6% 0.0% 8.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 5.3% 0.7% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 4.7% 0.2% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 3.6% 0.5% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 2.1% 0.2% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 1.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 98.5% 1.0 1.5 98.5 0.0
2nd Round 8.0% 0.1 92.0 8.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0