Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
109 Hofstra 22.9%   13   7 - 4 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 5 +3.7      +1.5 127 +2.2 101 64.9 304 +5.9 92 0.0 1
118 William & Mary 19.1%   7 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 9 12 - 6 +2.9      +1.3 133 +1.6 120 83.0 6 +8.5 69 0.0 1
119 UNC Wilmington 18.9%   9 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 8 12 - 6 +2.9      +2.8 104 +0.1 159 62.5 343 +3.5 119 0.0 1
128 Towson 15.6%   6 - 5 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 +2.1      0.0 164 +2.1 104 60.4 362 +4.7 102 0.0 1
166 Elon 6.6%   6 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 -0.6      +3.7 90 -4.3 315 67.2 246 +0.1 162 0.0 1
169 College of Charleston 6.5%   6 - 6 0 - 0 16 - 14 10 - 8 -0.7      +0.3 156 -0.9 197 68.9 200 -0.3 168 0.0 1
204 Northeastern 3.0%   4 - 7 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 9 -2.9      -1.6 210 -1.3 211 70.4 153 -4.1 235 0.0 1
221 Monmouth 1.9%   5 - 7 0 - 0 13 - 17 7 - 10 -3.8      -1.8 218 -2.0 235 67.8 229 -5.4 250 0.0 1
226 Campbell 1.9%   4 - 7 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -4.0      -1.6 209 -2.4 247 75.1 47 -1.4 183 0.0 1
241 Hampton 1.4%   4 - 7 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -4.6      -2.5 234 -2.1 239 65.4 289 -7.9 289 0.0 1
248 Stony Brook 1.3%   6 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 11 -5.0      -3.4 261 -1.7 222 63.9 321 -1.1 176 0.0 1
274 Drexel 0.7%   5 - 7 0 - 0 11 - 19 6 - 12 -6.1      -3.5 264 -2.6 260 63.4 329 -8.7 302 0.0 1
301 N.C. A&T 0.4%   5 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 17 5 - 13 -7.7      -5.0 305 -2.7 264 72.4 100 -4.0 232 0.0 1





Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Dec 29 128 Towson 71 118 William & Mary 75 65%   
Mon, Dec 29 166 Elon 80 204 Northeastern 74 70%   
Mon, Dec 29 241 Hampton 70 248 Stony Brook 66 63%   
Mon, Dec 29 226 Campbell 69 109 Hofstra 79 84%   
Mon, Dec 29 169 College of Charleston 75 274 Drexel 66 79%   
Mon, Dec 29 301 N.C. A&T 68 119 UNC Wilmington 75 77%   
Wed, Dec 31 169 College of Charleston 75 166 Elon 78 62%   
Wed, Dec 31 226 Campbell 75 221 Monmouth 78 62%   
Wed, Dec 31 241 Hampton 64 128 Towson 68 64%   
Wed, Dec 31 248 Stony Brook 70 118 William & Mary 81 85%   
Wed, Dec 31 301 N.C. A&T 74 204 Northeastern 76 57%   
Wed, Dec 31 274 Drexel 62 119 UNC Wilmington 74 87%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Hofstra 2.9 32.9 22.2 15.5 10.8 7.0 4.3 2.8 1.9 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1
William & Mary 3.2 28.4 20.1 15.5 11.7 8.3 5.7 4.0 2.5 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1
UNC Wilmington 3.3 25.6 20.5 16.2 12.4 8.5 6.1 4.2 2.9 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1
Towson 3.7 21.4 18.4 15.9 13.1 10.0 7.1 5.1 3.4 2.4 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.2
Elon 5.8 6.3 8.3 10.9 12.1 12.3 11.9 10.1 8.9 6.9 5.3 3.4 2.4 1.2
College of Charleston 5.6 6.6 9.3 10.9 12.3 12.6 11.7 9.9 8.1 6.5 5.0 3.6 2.3 1.0
Northeastern 7.7 1.7 3.2 5.1 7.0 9.0 10.3 11.0 11.1 10.8 10.0 9.0 7.1 4.8
Monmouth 8.4 0.8 1.9 3.2 5.1 7.1 9.2 10.4 11.7 11.8 11.6 11.3 9.6 6.3
Campbell 7.8 1.4 3.0 4.8 6.6 8.5 10.5 10.7 11.5 11.2 10.4 9.0 7.4 5.0
Hampton 8.4 1.1 2.2 3.5 5.5 6.7 8.8 9.9 11.0 11.4 11.8 10.9 9.6 7.5
Stony Brook 8.6 0.8 1.8 2.9 4.4 6.6 8.5 9.6 10.5 11.0 12.1 11.8 11.5 8.4
Drexel 9.4 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.4 6.3 8.2 9.6 11.1 12.7 14.2 14.8 12.5
N.C. A&T 10.7 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.1 3.3 4.5 5.9 8.0 10.4 14.0 19.3 29.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Hofstra 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.2 8.5 12.2 14.9 16.2 15.5 11.6 7.0 3.0 0.6
William & Mary 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.2 6.7 10.0 12.9 14.9 15.4 13.4 9.6 6.0 2.3 0.6
UNC Wilmington 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.2 4.5 7.3 10.1 13.7 15.5 15.2 13.4 9.2 4.9 1.9 0.4
Towson 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.2 5.6 8.7 11.7 14.2 15.0 14.5 11.1 7.5 4.0 1.4 0.3
Elon 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.5 6.1 9.7 12.7 14.3 14.8 13.1 10.2 6.6 3.8 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
College of Charleston 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.4 6.0 9.0 12.3 14.1 14.7 13.0 10.7 7.4 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
Northeastern 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.9 5.8 8.8 12.1 14.1 14.9 13.6 10.5 7.5 4.5 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Monmouth 7 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.1 7.4 11.2 14.2 15.5 14.9 12.0 8.5 5.3 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Campbell 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.0 5.9 9.2 12.7 14.7 14.8 13.2 10.2 7.1 4.4 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Hampton 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.5 7.8 11.2 14.0 15.0 14.1 11.3 8.6 5.4 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Stony Brook 7 - 11 0.1 0.8 2.2 5.2 8.9 12.2 14.5 14.7 13.9 10.8 7.8 4.5 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Drexel 6 - 12 0.2 1.4 3.8 7.2 11.6 14.8 15.9 14.7 11.9 8.3 5.2 3.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 5 - 13 1.4 4.9 9.7 13.4 15.8 15.9 13.4 10.0 7.0 4.3 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Hofstra 32.9% 21.5 8.6 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
William & Mary 28.4% 18.0 7.8 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
UNC Wilmington 25.6% 16.0 7.2 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Towson 21.4% 12.9 6.3 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Elon 6.3% 3.2 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
College of Charleston 6.6% 3.4 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northeastern 1.7% 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Campbell 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hampton 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stony Brook 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Drexel 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Hofstra 22.9% 22.9% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.6 10.2 8.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 77.1 0.1%
William & Mary 19.1% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 6.9 8.2 2.6 0.3 0.0 80.9 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 18.9% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.3 8.6 4.5 0.9 0.1 81.1 0.0%
Towson 15.6% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.5 7.3 3.5 0.8 0.1 84.5 0.0%
Elon 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.6 1.1 0.3 93.4 0.0%
College of Charleston 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.4 1.6 0.4 93.5 0.0%
Northeastern 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.6 97.0 0.0%
Monmouth 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 98.1 0.0%
Campbell 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 98.1 0.0%
Hampton 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 98.6 0.0%
Stony Brook 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 98.7 0.0%
Drexel 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 99.3 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Hofstra 22.9% 0.1% 22.9% 2.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 19.1% 0.0% 19.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 18.9% 0.0% 18.9% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 15.6% 0.0% 15.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 6.6% 0.1% 6.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 6.5% 0.2% 6.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 3.0% 0.4% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 1.9% 0.3% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 1.9% 0.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 1.4% 0.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 1.3% 0.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 99.2% 1.0 0.8 99.1 0.0
2nd Round 8.2% 0.1 91.8 8.2
Sweet Sixteen 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0