Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
109 UNC Wilmington 23.9%   13   8 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 7 13 - 5 +3.9      +3.3 93 +0.6 151 62.2 352 +6.7 88 0.0 1
119 William & Mary 19.5%   6 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 9 12 - 6 +3.1      +1.3 135 +1.7 118 83.2 6 +8.8 73 0.0 1
125 Towson 17.3%   5 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 +2.4      +1.1 139 +1.3 127 60.9 357 +5.3 104 0.0 1
139 Hofstra 13.9%   4 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 +1.6      -1.4 209 +3.1 85 67.9 222 +0.1 169 0.0 1
175 College of Charleston 5.6%   3 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 16 9 - 9 -1.3      +0.3 155 -1.6 220 67.3 247 -3.1 212 0.0 1
184 Elon 5.1%   4 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -1.7      +2.9 102 -4.6 331 69.0 196 -2.3 204 0.0 1
207 Monmouth 3.1%   4 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 16 8 - 9 -2.8      -1.4 201 -1.5 213 67.8 227 -3.4 221 0.0 1
208 Hampton 2.8%   3 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -3.2      -1.5 211 -1.7 221 64.8 301 -5.5 252 0.0 1
217 Campbell 2.6%   2 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -3.6      -1.9 221 -1.7 222 73.9 79 -1.3 193 0.0 1
221 Stony Brook 2.5%   4 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 -3.7      -0.7 182 -3.0 265 63.8 319 +2.1 142 0.0 1
228 Northeastern 2.0%   3 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 10 -3.9      -3.7 267 -0.2 169 71.5 135 -3.9 229 0.0 1
267 Drexel 1.1%   3 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 18 7 - 11 -5.6      -3.5 259 -2.1 233 63.1 333 -8.7 296 0.0 1
299 N.C. A&T 0.5%   3 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 17 5 - 13 -7.6      -5.9 326 -1.7 225 73.3 90 -3.6 224 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 3 172 Marshall 69 109 UNC Wilmington 70   
Wed, Dec 3 150 Cornell 80 125 Towson 93   
Wed, Dec 3 207 Monmouth 63 250 Princeton 58   
Wed, Dec 3 130 Columbia 72 139 Hofstra 70   
Wed, Dec 3 242 American 75 267 Drexel 73   
Wed, Dec 3 184 Elon 88 148 Furman 97   
Wed, Dec 3 286 Holy Cross 76 228 Northeastern 59   
Wed, Dec 3 208 Hampton 93 321 Loyola Maryland 71   
Sat, Dec 6 59 George Washington 99 119 William & Mary 86   
Sat, Dec 6 135 Georgia Tech 79 207 Monmouth 67   
Sat, Dec 6 184 Elon 73 247 Wofford 52   
Sat, Dec 6 133 Duquesne 84 221 Stony Brook 75   
Sat, Dec 6 267 Drexel 64 225 La Salle 69   
Sat, Dec 6 299 N.C. A&T 69 350 NC Central 54   
Sat, Dec 6 319 Louisiana 63 109 UNC Wilmington 70   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 7 139 Hofstra 64 95 Pittsburgh 71 74%   
Sun, Dec 7 125 Towson 69 62 Central Florida 78 81%   
Sun, Dec 7 243 Central Connecticut St. 67 228 Northeastern 70 64%   
Tue, Dec 9 130 Columbia 74 221 Stony Brook 71 61%   
Tue, Dec 9 313 Howard 74 299 N.C. A&T 75 53%   
Wed, Dec 10 175 College of Charleston 72 79 South Florida 84 86%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
UNC Wilmington 2.9 33.9 21.3 14.8 10.1 6.8 4.9 3.2 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1
William & Mary 3.2 29.1 20.2 15.6 10.7 8.1 5.6 4.0 2.6 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2
Towson 3.6 24.1 20.0 14.9 11.7 8.7 6.3 4.7 3.4 2.3 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.3
Hofstra 4.1 17.9 17.6 15.4 12.9 10.1 7.5 6.0 4.4 3.2 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.4
College of Charleston 6.1 6.4 8.0 9.4 11.2 11.6 10.5 9.8 9.0 7.4 6.4 4.9 3.4 2.0
Elon 6.6 4.6 6.6 8.3 9.6 10.5 10.7 10.2 9.7 8.5 7.7 6.3 4.6 2.6
Monmouth 7.8 1.6 3.5 5.0 6.7 8.3 9.7 10.2 11.0 10.9 10.6 9.6 8.0 4.9
Hampton 7.5 2.6 4.1 5.8 7.3 8.9 9.4 10.3 10.4 10.5 9.7 8.8 7.3 5.0
Campbell 7.7 2.3 3.9 5.6 7.1 8.3 9.6 10.1 10.4 10.4 9.6 9.0 7.9 5.8
Stony Brook 7.7 2.2 3.9 5.4 7.1 8.3 9.3 9.8 10.0 10.4 10.0 9.5 8.4 5.8
Northeastern 8.4 1.2 2.6 3.9 5.4 7.0 8.1 9.4 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.4 10.7 8.0
Drexel 9.1 0.7 1.7 2.6 3.8 5.4 6.5 8.2 9.7 10.9 11.9 13.0 13.7 12.1
N.C. A&T 10.6 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.7 3.4 4.3 6.0 7.5 9.8 13.6 18.9 30.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UNC Wilmington 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.3 5.6 8.7 11.8 14.6 15.7 14.4 11.5 7.5 3.2 0.7
William & Mary 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.3 4.2 7.0 10.0 12.7 14.7 14.9 13.3 10.1 5.9 2.3 0.6
Towson 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.0 5.4 8.1 10.9 13.2 14.5 14.0 11.8 8.7 4.9 1.9 0.4
Hofstra 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.3 6.9 9.8 12.2 14.2 14.6 12.6 10.1 6.4 3.3 1.2 0.2
College of Charleston 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 4.4 7.3 10.3 12.7 13.9 13.8 11.8 9.0 6.1 3.6 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
Elon 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.4 6.0 9.2 11.5 13.5 13.9 12.5 10.7 7.8 4.9 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Monmouth 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.3 6.0 9.0 12.7 14.4 14.6 12.9 10.3 7.1 4.5 2.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Hampton 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.9 5.8 8.6 11.5 13.6 14.0 13.2 10.6 8.0 5.3 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Campbell 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.3 6.0 9.1 11.4 13.7 14.0 12.6 10.5 7.6 4.8 2.8 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1
Stony Brook 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.4 6.3 9.3 11.9 13.7 13.6 12.6 9.9 7.5 4.8 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northeastern 7 - 11 0.2 0.9 2.2 5.0 8.1 11.3 13.5 14.3 13.3 11.4 8.5 5.6 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Drexel 7 - 11 0.3 1.3 3.6 7.0 10.8 12.9 14.7 14.4 12.1 9.3 6.3 3.7 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 5 - 13 1.5 5.4 9.5 13.7 15.3 14.7 13.0 9.9 6.8 4.6 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UNC Wilmington 33.9% 23.0 8.3 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
William & Mary 29.1% 18.9 7.6 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Towson 24.1% 15.2 6.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Hofstra 17.9% 10.8 5.1 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
College of Charleston 6.4% 3.4 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Elon 4.6% 2.3 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 1.6% 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hampton 2.6% 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Campbell 2.3% 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stony Brook 2.2% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northeastern 1.2% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Drexel 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UNC Wilmington 23.9% 23.9% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 8.3 9.7 3.9 0.6 0.0 76.1 0.0%
William & Mary 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 7.1 8.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 80.5 0.0%
Towson 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 5.4 7.1 3.2 0.8 0.1 82.7 0.0%
Hofstra 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.4 3.9 1.4 0.3 86.1 0.0%
College of Charleston 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.0 1.4 0.5 94.5 0.0%
Elon 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.7 1.3 0.5 94.9 0.0%
Monmouth 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.5 96.9 0.0%
Hampton 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 97.2 0.0%
Campbell 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 97.5 0.0%
Stony Brook 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.3 97.5 0.0%
Northeastern 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 98.0 0.0%
Drexel 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 98.9 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UNC Wilmington 23.9% 0.0% 23.9% 2.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 19.5% 0.0% 19.5% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 17.3% 0.1% 17.3% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 13.9% 0.2% 13.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 5.6% 0.3% 5.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 5.1% 0.2% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 3.1% 0.2% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 2.8% 0.3% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 2.6% 0.4% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 2.5% 0.1% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 2.0% 0.3% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 1.1% 0.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 98.9% 1.0 1.1 98.9 0.0
2nd Round 9.1% 0.1 90.9 9.1
Sweet Sixteen 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0