Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
113 UNC Wilmington 28.0%   14   18 - 4 9 - 2 +3.3      +2.5 107 +0.8 143 64.0 305 +5.6 89 +6.7 1
117 Hofstra 23.0%   14 - 9 7 - 5 +2.9      +2.5 105 +0.4 154 63.6 317 +2.0 131 -0.6 5
145 William & Mary 12.2%   13 - 9 6 - 6 +1.1      +1.4 131 -0.4 180 81.0 6 +1.9 134 -1.3 7
156 College of Charleston 11.3%   15 - 9 9 - 3 -0.1      -0.6 177 +0.5 153 70.8 119 +1.8 135 +3.9 2
172 Towson 5.6%   11 - 12 5 - 7 -0.8      -2.8 247 +2.0 112 60.9 354 -1.1 181 -3.8 10
192 Campbell 4.3%   10 - 13 6 - 6 -2.0      +1.0 140 -3.0 267 74.5 43 -1.4 185 -1.7 8
208 Monmouth 3.6%   11 - 12 6 - 5 -2.8      -3.7 270 +0.9 140 67.1 227 -3.2 217 -1.1 6
213 Stony Brook 4.0%   13 - 10 7 - 5 -2.9      -2.2 226 -0.7 197 63.9 310 -0.7 175 -0.2 4
215 Elon 2.3%   11 - 12 5 - 7 -3.0      +2.1 116 -5.1 317 68.1 201 -2.8 212 -5.0 11
217 Drexel 3.7%   12 - 12 7 - 5 -3.0      -4.5 292 +1.5 126 61.5 348 -3.5 223 +0.4 3
248 Hampton 1.4%   10 - 13 6 - 6 -4.7      -4.4 291 -0.2 176 64.5 295 -5.0 244 -1.7 9
269 Northeastern 0.3%   6 - 17 2 - 10 -6.1      -0.7 180 -5.4 325 73.3 61 -7.3 283 -10.2 12
286 N.C. A&T 0.1%   7 - 14 2 - 10 -7.2      -3.7 272 -3.5 286 71.8 92 -7.5 289 -10.6 13


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Feb 9 156 College of Charleston 64 113 UNC Wilmington 76   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Feb 12 156 College of Charleston 72 117 Hofstra 73 50%   
Thu, Feb 12 217 Drexel 66 208 Monmouth 63 61%   
Thu, Feb 12 213 Stony Brook 62 172 Towson 67 69%   
Thu, Feb 12 215 Elon 71 113 UNC Wilmington 80 81%   
Thu, Feb 12 269 Northeastern 85 145 William & Mary 89 66%   
Fri, Feb 13 248 Hampton 72 286 N.C. A&T 70 60%   
Sat, Feb 14 117 Hofstra 69 113 UNC Wilmington 72 63%   
Sat, Feb 14 215 Elon 81 145 William & Mary 88 75%   
Sun, Feb 15 192 Campbell 80 156 College of Charleston 79 54%   
Sun, Feb 15 208 Monmouth 65 172 Towson 64 54%   
Mon, Feb 16 217 Drexel 63 213 Stony Brook 66 62%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
UNC Wilmington 1.2 88.1 9.6 1.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hofstra 3.3 6.1 29.5 29.4 15.8 9.3 5.2 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.0
William & Mary 4.5 0.6 10.8 24.2 22.3 16.3 10.7 6.7 4.0 2.3 1.5 0.5 0.0
College of Charleston 2.3 21.5 52.2 15.1 5.8 3.3 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
Towson 7.5 0.0 0.6 4.3 7.9 9.2 11.7 14.4 13.1 14.3 13.6 10.7 0.3
Campbell 6.6 0.3 3.0 7.8 10.6 11.7 13.6 16.2 13.9 11.5 8.1 3.2 0.0
Monmouth 6.3 0.7 4.9 9.0 11.5 12.7 13.5 14.2 12.1 9.9 6.8 4.7 0.1
Stony Brook 5.4 0.5 7.4 15.4 16.4 15.2 13.7 12.5 7.8 6.3 4.3 0.8
Elon 9.5 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.4 3.9 6.8 10.2 15.2 20.6 36.8 2.0 0.1
Drexel 5.3 0.7 7.5 17.2 16.7 15.2 13.8 11.4 8.0 5.7 3.0 0.8
Hampton 7.7 0.1 1.2 3.1 5.7 7.5 10.4 15.0 16.4 18.3 15.6 6.4 0.3 0.0
Northeastern 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 5.8 64.9 27.2
N.C. A&T 12.4 0.1 0.2 0.7 4.1 45.7 49.3

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UNC Wilmington 14 - 4 23 - 6 0.0 0.4 2.1 8.4 19.5 30.5 27.7 11.4
Hofstra 11 - 7 18 - 11 0.1 1.5 7.7 21.8 33.4 26.7 8.8
William & Mary 10 - 8 17 - 11 0.2 1.5 5.8 17.7 31.6 30.1 13.2
College of Charleston 12 - 6 18 - 12 1.6 8.4 20.8 30.2 24.9 11.8 2.3
Towson 8 - 10 14 - 15 0.8 5.8 16.8 27.4 28.2 16.3 4.7
Campbell 9 - 9 13 - 16 1.8 10.0 23.4 30.5 22.7 9.8 1.9
Monmouth 9 - 9 14 - 16 2.0 8.8 21.2 28.1 23.5 12.1 4.0 0.4
Stony Brook 10 - 8 16 - 13 2.7 14.0 27.1 29.6 18.8 6.9 0.9
Elon 7 - 11 13 - 16 5.1 21.0 32.7 26.0 11.7 3.2 0.3
Drexel 10 - 8 15 - 15 2.7 12.1 25.4 30.5 20.9 7.2 1.2
Hampton 8 - 10 12 - 17 4.7 18.2 31.6 28.1 13.9 3.3 0.4
Northeastern 4 - 14 8 - 21 8.7 23.7 31.6 22.7 10.5 2.6 0.3
N.C. A&T 4 - 14 9 - 18 16.2 32.4 30.1 15.7 4.9 0.7 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UNC Wilmington 88.1% 73.5 12.2 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
Hofstra 6.1% 1.3 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
William & Mary 0.6% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
College of Charleston 21.5% 9.4 10.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0
Towson 0.0% 0.0
Campbell 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 0.7% 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Stony Brook 0.5% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Elon
Drexel 0.7% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Hampton 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northeastern
N.C. A&T


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UNC Wilmington 28.0% 28.0% 0.0% 14   0.5 8.1 14.4 4.8 0.2 72.0 0.0%
Hofstra 23.0% 23.0% 0.0% 0.4 9.0 11.3 2.2 0.1 77.0 0.0%
William & Mary 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0 2.8 6.2 2.8 0.4 0.0 87.8 0.0%
College of Charleston 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 0.2 2.8 5.9 2.4 0.1 88.7 0.0%
Towson 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 1.6 2.1 0.7 94.4 0.0%
Campbell 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.2 0.8 2.1 1.1 95.8 0.0%
Monmouth 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 1.9 0.9 96.4 0.0%
Stony Brook 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.9 0.4 96.0 0.0%
Elon 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 97.7 0.0%
Drexel 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 2.2 0.7 96.3 0.0%
Hampton 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 98.6 0.0%
Northeastern 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.8% 1.0 1.2 98.8
2nd Round 4.5% 0.0 95.5 4.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UNC Wilmington 28.0% 0.0% 28.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 23.0% 0.0% 23.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 12.2% 0.0% 12.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 11.3% 0.0% 11.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 5.6% 0.3% 5.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 4.3% 0.6% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 3.6% 0.3% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 4.0% 0.1% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 2.3% 0.4% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 3.7% 0.2% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 1.4% 0.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%