Towson
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -0.6 167
Results Rating -0.7 169
Consistency 0.15 180
Pace 60.9 351
Improvement +0.5 169

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 254 D C- C D+ D-
Defense B- 104 B- B D+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 299 D+ 54% 275 -3.7 309
2 Pt. Jumpers 48% 64 C+ 40% 98 +4.2 25
Three Pointers 36% 290 D- 30% 325 -5.0 333
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.5 337 D+ -2.9 281
1st FG Attempt D 0.93 316
Second Chance B 35.4% 46 F 0.84 360 C- 0.30 205
Opponents' Steals B- 8.3% 81
Other Turnovers D+ 8.2% 296
Turnovers C 16.5% 166
Freethrows D+ 0.28 253 D 68% 307 D+ 0.19 286
Total Offense D+ -3.2 254

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D+ 41% 293 C+ 10.3% 144
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 12% 342 B 2.7% 35
Three Pointers F 69% 359 C- 1.1% 254
Total F 40% 361 B- 4.7% 83


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 219 B- 55% 93 -1.8 113
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 175 D 42% 302 +0.7 245
Three Pointers 42% 136 B 31% 51 -1.4 127
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 150 B- -2.5 79
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 94
Second Chance B- 27.3% 72 B- 0.97 82 B 0.26 62
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.9% 220
Other Turnovers D 6.1% 325
Turnovers D+ 14.9% 288
Freethrows B 0.26 69 B 70% 44 B 0.18 50
Total Defense B- +2.6 104

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 40% 37 C 11.1% 166
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 15% 11 C 4.8% 183
Three Pointers C+ 82% 134 C- 0.7% 205
Total B+ 48% 34 C 5.4% 183

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 288 18.2 313
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 201 0.14 77
Consistency 0.13 244 0.15 350
Improvement +0.1 183 +0.4 173

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 179 169 155
Results Rating Rank 199 174 153
Conference Record 9 - 9 9 - 9 9 - 9
Conference Finish 7 7 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 7% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.1 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round4% 7% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 12
Quad 410 - 316 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 314 Loyola Maryland W 67 - 56 80% +4  55% 1 - 0 C +1 F+ -9 F+ D- C- A+ +11 A A+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 6 @Houston L 48 - 65 2% -9  1% 1 - 1 B +8 F -11 C C- F A+ +18 A A A+
 Fri, Nov 14 312 Norfolk St. W 51 - 41 86% -1  39% 2 - 1 C- -2 F -21 F F B+ A+ +20 A+ D F
 Tue, Nov 18 207 @James Madison L 75 - 81 45% -3  23% 2 - 2 D+ -5 A- +10 C B B- F -16 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 135 Rhode Island W 62 - 55 42% +2  60% 3 - 2 B +9 C- -1 D+ D- B- A +11 A+ F A
 Tue, Nov 25 114 Liberty W 72 - 69 35% -1  36% 4 - 2 B- +6 C+ +2 C- A+ B B +4 A C- F+
 Wed, Nov 26 132 UC San Diego L 73 - 87 41% -13  0% 4 - 3 D- -12 B+ +7 D+ B- B F -21 F C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 163 Cornell W 93 - 80 61% +3  58% 5 - 3 B +10 A- +11 A- A+ D+ C -1 D A+ C
 Sun, Dec 7 51 @Central Florida L 61 - 86 9% -17  0% 5 - 4 D -11 D -5 D+ B+ F F+ -8 C F C-
 Tue, Dec 16 20 @Kansas L 49 - 73 4% -14  0% 5 - 5 C- -4 F+ -9 F C+ D+ B- +3 A F C
 Mon, Dec 22 287 Sacred Heart W 72 - 47 82% +9  83% 6 - 5 A- +15 D -5 B F D- A+ +22 A+ B- A+
 Mon, Dec 29 139 @William & Mary L 70 - 84 32% -8  27% 6 - 6 0 - 1 D -10 D -4 C- F B+ D -6 F A+ F+
 Wed, Dec 31 263 @Hampton L 62 - 63 58% -1  34% 6 - 7 0 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 F C B- C -0 C- C- B
 Sat, Jan 3 179 Monmouth L 48 - 62 64% -7  12% 6 - 8 0 - 3 F -18 F -23 F F B- B +4 C+ B- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 103 Hofstra L 67 - 78 43% -7  10% 6 - 9 0 - 4 D -10 D -5 D C+ F D -6 B F F
 Sat, Jan 10 296 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 66% +6  68% 7 - 9 1 - 4 C+ +4 B+ +8 A A+ F D+ -4 D+ A- F
 Thu, Jan 15 143 College of Charleston W 61 - 52 55% +9  97% 8 - 9 2 - 4 B- +7 F -12 F B D A+ +20 A+ B+ A+
 Mon, Jan 19 214 Drexel W 59 - 58 70% -7  6% 9 - 9 3 - 4 D+ -5 F+ -10 F B C B +5 D A C+
 Thu, Jan 22 242 @Elon W 72 - 59 54% +5  72% 10 - 9 4 - 4 B+ +11 B +7 F A+ A+ A- +7 B B A+
 Sat, Jan 24 281 @N.C. A&T L 73 - 80 61% -4  23% 10 - 10 4 - 5 D -11 D- -7 D+ F D D+ -4 F A- B
 Thu, Jan 29 106 UNC Wilmington L 73 - 82 43% -3  12% 10 - 11 4 - 6 D+ -8 B- +5 B+ F A+ F -13 F B F
 Sat, Jan 31 263 Hampton W 82 - 50 78% +18  99% 11 - 11 5 - 6 A+ +23 B+ +9 A+ F B+ A+ +16 A A+ F+
 Sat, Feb 7 103 @Hofstra L 49 - 71 23% -18  1% 11 - 12 5 - 7 F+ -15 F -16 D F D- C -1 B- C F+
 Thu, Feb 12 226 Stony Brook W 69 - 57 72% +10  96% 12 - 12 6 - 7 B- +5 C- -2 D- C+ B A- +8 A+ C- F
 Sun, Feb 15 179 @Monmouth L 71 - 72 41% +3  76% 12 - 13 6 - 8 C +1 C+ +3 B- A+ F C- -3 C- A F
 Sun, Feb 22 214 @Drexel L 62 - 68 48% -4  2% 12 - 14 6 - 9 D+ -6 D- -6 F C+ A+ C +0 B+ D+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 242 Elon W 58 - 56 75% +0  50% 13 - 14 7 - 9 D+ -6 F -16 F F+ B+ A +11 A- A+ F
 Sat, Feb 28 183 Campbell W 71 - 67 65% -4  22% 14 - 14 8 - 9 C -1 B- +5 C C+ A- D -5 A D F
 Tue, Mar 3 226 @Stony Brook W 69 - 57 50% -4  24% 15 - 14 9 - 9 B +11 B- +4 C C+ B- A +9 C+ A+ D+
 Sat, Mar 7 263 Hampton W 66 - 61 69%
Totals 16 - 14 9 - 9 -1 D+ -3 B+ D+ D- B- +3 D- D D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D+ C+ D- D+ 34% 48% 36% D- D B F C- C D+ D D+ B- B- D B B- 37% 21% 42% C B- B- B- B D+ B B B
1.04 54% 40% 30% -3 -1 0.93 35% 0.8 .30 17% .28 68% .19 1.05 55% 42% 31% -2 0 0.97 27% 1.0 .26 15% .26 70% .20
Nov
3		 Loyola Maryland F+ D D D F+ 49% 30% 21% C- F+ B- F D- C- B- B B A+ C A+ A+ A+ 45% 11% 45% D A A+ A+ A+ C F C- F
1.03 57% 36% 30% -3 0 0.96 34% 0.8 .29 15% .33 78% .25 0.86 57% 20% 19% -12 +2 0.81 18% 0.2 .03 17% .46 72% .33
Nov
8		 Houston F D A+ F C- 38% 24% 38% C+ C C+ D- C- F D+ F F A+ F A+ A+ A+ 32% 15% 53% F A A- B+ A A+ A+ A- A+
0.74 50% 50% 19% -9 0 0.83 28% 0.8 .22 28% .30 50% .15 1.00 82% 25% 21% -4 0 0.94 32% 0.9 .29 18% .13 71% .09
Nov
14		 Norfolk St. F D- F F F 22% 16% 61% F+ F C+ F F B+ C- F F+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 33% 37% 29% A A+ D D+ D F A+ A+ A+
0.86 55% 25% 20% -16 -1 0.69 34% 0.4 .15 13% .35 61% .21 0.69 6% 32% 13% -29 -3 0.39 33% 1.1 .35 10% .21 27% .06
Nov
18		 James Madison A- A D- D- C+ 37% 31% 33% F+ C A+ F B B- A C+ A F F D F F 34% 11% 55% C- F A+ B- A+ F F F F
1.22 68% 31% 29% -1 -1 0.98 45% 0.8 .37 11% .42 74% .31 1.32 73% 40% 50% +18 +1 1.41 9% 1.0 .09 11% .39 81% .31
Nov
24		 Rhode Island C- A+ C- B- B- 23% 52% 25% F D+ B- F D- B- B- C- C+ A C+ F A+ A+ 34% 17% 49% B- A+ B- F F A C+ A+ B+
1.01 70% 35% 36% +2 -5 0.95 34% 0.6 .22 20% .39 68% .26 0.90 57% 71% 5% -16 0 0.71 29% 1.7 .50 24% .35 63% .22
Nov
25		 Liberty C+ B+ A+ F C 35% 35% 30% F C- A- A A+ B B- D+ C+ B F+ B A+ A 44% 6% 50% C A C- C- C- F+ A F B+
1.14 63% 63% 14% +1 -2 1.00 39% 1.4 .55 16% .26 71% .19 1.09 71% 33% 26% -1 +2 1.06 18% 1.0 .18 9% .17 80% .14
Nov
26		 UC San Diego B+ C- D+ C- C 25% 33% 42% F D+ A F+ B- B B A+ A F D- C F F 31% 22% 47% A F A- F C- F C A+ A-
1.14 54% 35% 32% -3 -3 0.90 39% 0.9 .34 14% .31 82% .25 1.36 67% 36% 65% +24 -1 1.49 20% 1.4 .28 11% .26 47% .12
Dec
3		 Cornell A- C+ C+ A+ A 45% 23% 32% D+ A- A+ A- A+ D+ F+ F F C F D+ C D 54% 13% 33% D+ D A A+ A+ C D+ D D
1.35 63% 42% 53% +12 0 1.26 47% 1.3 .59 16% .26 53% .14 1.16 71% 43% 35% +8 +2 1.23 24% 0.7 .17 17% .32 78% .25
Dec
7		 Central Florida D F+ A+ F D+ 33% 24% 43% C- D+ A D+ B+ F D+ F F F+ D- F A+ C 45% 27% 29% C+ C F+ F F C- F F F
0.95 47% 64% 25% -3 -1 0.93 35% 1.0 .35 23% .26 46% .12 1.34 68% 62% 21% +5 0 1.12 42% 1.5 .62 14% .38 90% .34
Dec
16		 Kansas F+ C+ D+ F F 30% 32% 38% D F A+ F C+ D+ C C- C B- A F+ A- A+ 41% 18% 41% D A D+ F F C B+ A+ A
0.77 53% 31% 11% -17 -2 0.64 42% 0.6 .25 17% .23 67% .15 1.15 50% 44% 30% -5 0 0.94 34% 1.6 .54 14% .26 64% .16
Dec
22		 Sacred Heart D A+ A+ C B+ 31% 19% 50% D B B F F D- D F D- A+ A F A+ A+ 35% 10% 55% F+ A+ C B+ B- A+ A+ F A+
1.11 81% 50% 35% +10 0 1.21 37% 0.2 .09 17% .22 58% .13 0.72 44% 60% 18% -16 +1 0.73 26% 0.9 .24 25% .02 100% .02
Dec
29		 William & Mary D B C D C 33% 24% 43% D- C- C+ F F B+ C- F D- D D+ F F F 42% 15% 43% B- F B+ A+ A+ F+ C A B
1.00 67% 38% 30% +1 -1 1.02 32% 0.5 .16 16% .27 56% .15 1.20 64% 63% 43% +12 +1 1.28 21% 0.3 .07 13% .35 67% .23
Dec
31		 Hampton D+ C+ B- F F 32% 34% 34% F F A F C B- A+ D+ A C F A+ A+ C- 33% 30% 37% B- C- D+ C+ C- B F+ C- F+
1.03 64% 40% 13% -8 -2 0.82 38% 0.8 .31 15% .51 65% .33 1.04 79% 23% 25% -3 -2 0.93 34% 0.9 .31 20% .41 75% .31
Jan
3		 Monmouth F F F F F 35% 17% 48% C- F B- F F B- F A+ F B A F A- C 28% 38% 35% A+ C+ B- C B- A+ F F F
0.76 39% 22% 28% -14 0 0.75 34% 0.4 .13 17% .11 83% .10 0.98 45% 53% 29% -1 -3 0.95 29% 1.0 .29 24% .39 84% .33
Jan
8		 Hofstra D F D- A C- 16% 45% 39% F D B+ D C+ F A+ B A+ D C- A+ D+ B 27% 30% 43% B+ B B- F F F F D+ F
1.00 25% 30% 40% -5 -5 0.82 37% 0.9 .34 19% .46 76% .35 1.16 58% 23% 37% -3 -2 0.93 31% 1.5 .47 12% .54 78% .42
Jan
10		 Northeastern B+ B+ A A+ A 52% 30% 18% D A A+ A+ A+ F C C- C D+ D+ D- C D+ 39% 17% 44% C D+ A- B A- F F F F
1.27 70% 54% 50% +15 0 1.32 48% 1.3 .63 23% .34 72% .25 1.13 62% 44% 33% +2 +1 1.07 20% 1.0 .20 12% .35 86% .30
Jan
15		 College of Charleston F F C+ F F 29% 25% 46% C- F C- A+ B D A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 36% 14% 50% D- A+ D- A+ B+ A+ A+ A A+
0.90 40% 38% 17% -17 -1 0.65 30% 1.3 .38 16% .30 88% .26 0.77 39% 14% 28% -15 +1 0.74 34% 0.7 .25 22% .17 67% .11
Jan
19		 Drexel F+ F C- D- F 36% 34% 30% D- F A D B C A D A- B D F C+ D- 44% 25% 31% C+ D A+ F A C+ A+ A+ A+
0.94 29% 38% 29% -13 -2 0.72 41% 0.9 .39 16% .40 71% .28 0.92 62% 50% 33% +4 0 1.10 8% 2.0 .15 21% .08 25% .02
Jan
22		 Elon B F F B+ F 31% 29% 41% F+ F A+ C+ A+ A+ C+ A+ B A- B- A+ C+ B 37% 12% 51% B B C- A B A+ D B- D+
1.22 47% 0% 40% -11 -2 0.78 50% 1.1 .57 8% .30 81% .24 1.00 53% 20% 33% -4 +1 0.95 33% 0.8 .27 22% .35 69% .24
Jan
24		 N.C. A&T D- C+ A+ F C- 35% 29% 37% D- D+ C- F F D A+ C A+ D+ F F D+ F 40% 16% 44% F F A B- A- B F B F
1.02 61% 53% 26% +1 -1 1.02 26% 0.5 .13 15% .48 69% .33 1.12 72% 57% 35% +9 +1 1.22 22% 1.0 .22 21% .59 70% .41
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 UNC Wilmington B- D A+ F A- 37% 35% 27% D+ B+ F+ F F A+ A+ D- A F A+ F F F 24% 24% 52% B- F A- C- B F D F+ F+
1.14 53% 72% 21% +5 -2 1.08 18% 0.8 .14 8% .39 70% .27 1.28 42% 58% 42% +7 -1 1.14 29% 1.1 .31 6% .40 75% .30
Jan
31		 Hampton B+ A A A+ A+ 40% 30% 30% D- A+ D+ F F B+ B+ F C A+ A+ A D+ A+ 40% 25% 35% D+ A A A+ A+ F+ B- A+ A+
1.25 75% 47% 47% +15 -1 1.30 26% 0.5 .13 14% .44 60% .26 0.76 32% 25% 35% -13 0 0.75 24% 0.5 .11 14% .32 50% .16
Feb
7		 Hofstra F F C+ A+ D- 39% 30% 32% C- D C- F F D- A F C C A+ B F C 25% 33% 42% A B- C+ D+ C F+ C C C
0.79 24% 38% 43% -9 -1 0.82 28% 0.3 .07 18% .37 58% .22 1.15 42% 31% 45% 0 -3 0.98 32% 1.1 .35 13% .30 75% .22
Feb
12		 Stony Brook C- F A+ F+ D- 33% 30% 37% F+ D- B+ D C+ B D C- D A- C- A+ A+ A+ 27% 20% 53% B+ A+ C D C- F C+ A+ B
1.09 44% 50% 30% -3 -2 0.93 38% 0.8 .31 14% .26 71% .18 0.90 57% 20% 22% -13 -1 0.75 28% 1.0 .28 11% .23 62% .14
Feb
15		 Monmouth C+ B- B+ A A- 30% 32% 39% F B- A- A+ A+ F A F D- C- A+ B F D+ 28% 24% 48% C+ C- F A+ A F C- A+ B-
1.09 62% 43% 41% +7 -2 1.11 40% 1.3 .53 25% .37 44% .16 1.11 36% 33% 46% +1 -1 1.02 43% 0.5 .20 11% .31 61% .19
Feb
22		 Drexel D- F F F F 42% 35% 23% D F F A+ C+ A+ B+ D+ B C A- F A+ B+ 38% 27% 36% B B+ D- C D+ F F A F
0.94 45% 22% 25% -14 -2 0.71 21% 1.6 .33 8% .36 73% .26 1.03 47% 67% 19% -5 -1 0.91 33% 0.9 .30 15% .59 61% .36
Feb
26		 Elon F B- F F F 38% 23% 38% C- F D+ F F+ B+ B- B B A A+ A+ F A 57% 6% 36% F A- A+ A+ A+ F A- B- A-
0.94 61% 27% 17% -11 0 0.79 30% 0.9 .27 13% .32 76% .24 0.91 41% 0% 41% -9 +3 0.91 20% 0.7 .14 11% .24 69% .16
Feb
28		 Campbell B- C C+ A+ B- 33% 39% 28% F C B+ D- C+ A- B- A+ A- D A+ C+ A A+ 60% 6% 35% F A D- C D F A+ F+ A+
1.20 60% 39% 46% +6 -3 1.09 39% 1.0 .39 14% .33 82% .27 1.13 42% 33% 28% -13 +3 0.83 40% 1.0 .40 5% .16 78% .12
Mar
3		 Stony Brook B- F+ B B+ C+ 26% 26% 49% F+ C A- D- C+ B- B+ F C A A+ F C C+ 25% 18% 57% B C+ B A+ A+ D+ A+ D+ A+
1.13 50% 42% 39% +3 -2 1.04 39% 0.8 .31 15% .34 61% .21 0.93 38% 56% 34% -2 -1 0.98 24% 0.4 .11 16% .08 75% .06



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 100.0% 3.8% 3.8% 14.1 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.0 96.2
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 14.1 96.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.8% 100.0% 14.1 0.7 16.7 57.8 24.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.6%
Lose Out 45.8%