Towson
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -0.8 172
Expected Predictive Rating -1.1 181
Pace 60.9 354
Improvement -0.9 227

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #247 D C- C D+ D-
Defense C+ #112 C+ B C- B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 280 55% 265 -3.2 291
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 31 41% 83 +4.4 21
Three Pointers 35% 301 29% 340 -5.5 332
1st FG Attempt 0.93 311 -4.3 311
Second Chance 35.9% 46 0.79 364 0.29 236
Turnovers 16.9% 180
Freethrows 0.28 265 69% 281 0.19 283
Total Offense -2.8 247

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 216 57% 142 +1.2 135
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 177 42% 300 -0.8 254
Three Pointers 42% 141 31% 58 +1.4 126
1st FG Attempt 0.98 120 +1.8 120
Second Chance 26.0% 39 1.01 151 0.26 60
Turnovers 16.1% 230
Freethrows 0.28 86 71% 93 0.20 76
Total Defense +2.0 112

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.4 334 -0.1 150
Shot Type Accuracy -2.9 288 -1.6 113
Possession Length 18.3 279 18.2 309
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 217 0.15 97
Improvement -0.8 #233 -0.2 #199

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 6% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 15.0
.500 or above 56% 67% 30%
.500 or above in Conference 49% 61% 23%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round5% 6% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Stony Brook (Home) - 68.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 11
Quad 410 - 415 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 312 Loyola Maryland W 67 - 56 78% +4  55% 1 - 0 C+ +2 F+ -8 F+ F+ C- A +11 A A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 5 @Houston L 48 - 65 2% -9  1% 1 - 1 B +9 F -12 C- C- F+ A+ +19 A A A+
 Fri, Nov 14 307 Norfolk St. W 51 - 41 85% -1  39% 2 - 1 C- -2 F -19 F F A- A+ +19 A+ D- F
 Tue, Nov 18 222 @James Madison L 75 - 81 47% -3  23% 2 - 2 D+ -6 B+ +8 C- B- C+ F -15 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 116 Rhode Island W 62 - 55 36% +2  60% 3 - 2 B +10 C- -2 D+ D- B- A +13 A+ F A
 Tue, Nov 25 95 Liberty W 72 - 69 28% -1  36% 4 - 2 B +8 B- +4 C A+ B B +5 A- C F+
 Wed, Nov 26 139 UC San Diego L 73 - 87 42% -13  0% 4 - 3 D- -13 B +7 D+ C+ B F -21 F C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 159 Cornell W 93 - 80 60% +3  58% 5 - 3 B +10 A- +10 B+ A+ D+ C -0 D+ A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 7 52 @Central Florida L 61 - 86 10% -17  0% 5 - 4 D- -11 D -5 D+ A- F D- -9 C- F C-
 Tue, Dec 16 12 @Kansas L 49 - 73 3% -14  0% 5 - 5 C- -2 F+ -9 F+ B- D B +5 A F C
 Mon, Dec 22 287 Sacred Heart W 72 - 47 82% +9  83% 6 - 5 A- +15 D -6 B- F D A+ +22 A+ B- A
 Mon, Dec 29 145 @William & Mary L 70 - 84 32% -8  27% 6 - 6 0 - 1 D -10 D+ -4 C- F A- D -6 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 248 @Hampton L 62 - 63 53% -1  34% 6 - 7 0 - 2 C- -3 D+ -2 F C+ B C -1 C- C B-
 Sat, Jan 3 208 Monmouth L 48 - 62 69% -7  12% 6 - 8 0 - 3 F -20 F -23 F F B C+ +2 C B- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 117 Hofstra L 67 - 78 47% -7  10% 6 - 9 0 - 4 D -11 D- -7 D- C+ F D+ -5 B F+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 269 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 59% +6  68% 7 - 9 1 - 4 B- +6 A- +9 A A+ F C- -3 C- B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 156 College of Charleston W 61 - 52 59% +9  97% 8 - 9 2 - 4 B- +6 F -13 F B D A+ +19 A+ B A
 Mon, Jan 19 217 Drexel W 59 - 58 69% -7  6% 9 - 9 3 - 4 D+ -5 F -10 F B C B +5 D A B-
 Thu, Jan 22 215 @Elon W 72 - 59 47% +5  72% 10 - 9 4 - 4 B+ +13 B +6 F A+ A+ A- +9 A- B A
 Sat, Jan 24 286 @N.C. A&T L 73 - 80 63% -4  23% 10 - 10 4 - 5 D- -11 D -6 D+ F D D -5 F A- B-
 Thu, Jan 29 113 UNC Wilmington L 73 - 82 46% -3  12% 10 - 11 4 - 6 D -9 B- +4 B F A+ F -13 F B F
 Sat, Jan 31 248 Hampton W 82 - 50 75% +18  99% 11 - 11 5 - 6 A+ +24 A- +10 A+ F B+ A+ +16 A A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 117 @Hofstra L 49 - 71 26% -18  1% 11 - 12 5 - 7 F+ -16 F -18 D- F D- C -1 C+ C+ F+
 Thu, Feb 12 213 Stony Brook W 67 - 62 69%
 Sun, Feb 15 208 @Monmouth L 64 - 65 46%
 Sat, Feb 21 217 @Drexel L 61 - 62 47%
 Thu, Feb 26 215 Elon W 73 - 68 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 192 Campbell W 74 - 70 66%
 Tue, Mar 3 213 @Stony Brook L 64 - 65 47%
Totals 14 - 15 8 - 10 -1 C- -3 D C- C C+ +2 C+ B C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ B- D- D+ 35% 30% 35% D- D B F C- C D+ D+ D+ C+ C+ D B C+ 37% 21% 42% C C+ B+ C B C- B- B- B-
1.05 55% 41% 29% -3 -1 0.93 36% 0.8 .29 17% .28 69% .19 1.06 57% 42% 31% -2 0 0.98 26% 1.0 .26 16% .28 71% .20
Nov
3		 Loyola Maryland F+ D D D F+ 49% 30% 21% C- F+ C+ F F+ C- B- B B+ A C A+ A+ A+ 45% 11% 45% D- A A+ A+ A+ D+ F C- F
1.03 57% 36% 30% -3 0 0.96 34% 0.8 .29 15% .33 78% .25 0.86 57% 20% 19% -12 +2 0.81 18% 0.2 .03 17% .46 72% .33
Nov
8		 Houston F D A+ F C- 38% 24% 38% C+ C- C D C- F+ D+ F F A+ F A+ A+ A+ 32% 15% 53% F A A B A A+ A+ A- A+
0.74 50% 50% 19% -9 0 0.83 28% 0.8 .22 28% .30 50% .15 1.00 82% 25% 21% -4 0 0.94 32% 0.9 .29 18% .13 71% .09
Nov
14		 Norfolk St. F D- F F F 22% 16% 61% F+ F C+ F F A- C F D A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 33% 37% 29% A A+ D D D- F A+ A+ A+
0.86 55% 25% 20% -16 -1 0.69 34% 0.4 .15 13% .35 61% .21 0.69 6% 32% 13% -29 -3 0.39 33% 1.1 .35 10% .21 27% .06
Nov
18		 James Madison B+ A D D- C 37% 31% 33% F+ C- A+ F B- C+ A- C+ A- F F D F F 34% 11% 55% D+ F A+ B- A+ F F F F
1.22 68% 31% 29% 0 -1 0.98 45% 0.8 .37 11% .42 74% .31 1.32 73% 40% 50% +19 +1 1.41 9% 1.0 .09 11% .39 81% .31
Nov
24		 Rhode Island C- A C- B- B- 23% 52% 25% F D+ B- F D- B- B D+ B- A C+ F A+ A+ 34% 17% 49% B- A+ B F F A C A+ B
1.01 70% 35% 36% +2 -5 0.95 34% 0.6 .22 20% .39 68% .26 0.90 57% 71% 5% -16 0 0.71 29% 1.7 .50 24% .35 63% .22
Nov
25		 Liberty B- B+ A+ F C+ 35% 35% 30% F+ C A- A A+ B B- C- B- B F+ B A+ A 44% 6% 50% C+ A- C C C F+ A- F B
1.14 63% 63% 14% +1 -2 1.00 39% 1.4 .55 16% .26 71% .19 1.09 71% 33% 26% -1 +2 1.06 18% 1.0 .18 9% .17 80% .14
Nov
26		 UC San Diego B C- D+ C- C 25% 33% 42% F D+ A F+ C+ B B A+ A- F D- C F F 31% 22% 47% A+ F A F C- F C+ A+ A-
1.14 54% 35% 32% -3 -3 0.90 39% 0.9 .34 14% .31 82% .25 1.36 67% 36% 65% +24 -1 1.49 20% 1.4 .28 11% .26 47% .12
Dec
3		 Cornell A- C+ B- A+ A- 45% 23% 32% C- B+ A+ C+ A+ D+ F+ F F C F+ C- C D+ 54% 13% 33% D+ D+ A A+ A+ C- D+ D D+
1.35 63% 42% 53% +12 0 1.26 47% 1.3 .59 16% .26 53% .14 1.16 71% 43% 35% +9 +2 1.23 24% 0.7 .17 17% .32 78% .25
Dec
7		 Central Florida D F+ A+ F D+ 33% 24% 43% D+ D+ A+ C- A- F D+ F F D- D- F A+ D+ 45% 27% 29% C+ C- D- F F C- F F F
0.95 47% 64% 25% -3 -1 0.93 35% 1.0 .35 23% .26 46% .12 1.34 68% 62% 21% +5 0 1.12 42% 1.5 .62 14% .38 90% .34
Dec
16		 Kansas F+ C D+ F F+ 30% 32% 38% D F+ A+ F B- D C+ C+ C+ B A D- B+ A+ 41% 18% 41% D+ A D+ F F C A- A+ A+
0.77 53% 31% 11% -17 -2 0.64 42% 0.6 .25 17% .23 67% .15 1.15 50% 44% 30% -4 0 0.94 34% 1.6 .54 14% .26 64% .16
Dec
22		 Sacred Heart D A+ A+ C B 31% 19% 50% D- B- B F F D D- F F A+ A F A+ A+ 35% 10% 55% F+ A+ C B+ B- A A+ F A+
1.11 81% 50% 35% +10 0 1.21 37% 0.2 .09 17% .22 58% .13 0.72 44% 60% 18% -16 +1 0.73 26% 0.9 .24 25% .02 100% .02
Dec
29		 William & Mary D+ B C D C 33% 24% 43% D- C- C F F A- C- F D- D D+ F F F 42% 15% 43% B- F A- A+ A+ F C- A B-
1.00 67% 38% 30% +1 -1 1.02 32% 0.5 .16 16% .27 56% .15 1.20 64% 63% 43% +12 +1 1.28 21% 0.3 .07 13% .35 67% .23
Dec
31		 Hampton D+ C+ B- F F 32% 34% 34% F F A F C+ B A+ D+ A C F A+ A+ C- 33% 30% 37% C+ C- C- C+ C B- F+ D+ F+
1.03 64% 40% 13% -8 -2 0.82 38% 0.8 .31 15% .51 65% .33 1.04 79% 23% 25% -3 -2 0.93 34% 0.9 .31 20% .41 75% .31
Jan
3		 Monmouth F F F F F 35% 17% 48% C- F C F F B F A+ F C+ A F B+ D+ 28% 38% 35% A+ C B- C+ B- A+ F F F
0.76 39% 22% 28% -14 0 0.75 34% 0.4 .13 17% .11 83% .10 0.98 45% 53% 29% 0 -3 0.95 29% 1.0 .29 24% .39 84% .33
Jan
8		 Hofstra D- F D- A D+ 16% 45% 39% F D- B+ D- C+ F A+ B A+ D+ C- A+ D+ B 27% 30% 43% B+ B B F F+ F F C- F
1.00 25% 30% 40% -5 -5 0.82 37% 0.9 .34 19% .46 76% .35 1.16 58% 23% 37% -2 -2 0.93 31% 1.5 .47 12% .54 78% .42
Jan
10		 Northeastern A- A- A A+ A+ 52% 30% 18% D+ A A+ A+ A+ F C C- C C- D+ D- C D+ 39% 17% 44% C+ C- A C B+ F D- F F
1.27 70% 54% 50% +15 0 1.32 48% 1.3 .63 23% .34 72% .25 1.13 62% 44% 33% +2 +1 1.07 20% 1.0 .20 12% .35 86% .30
Jan
15		 College of Charleston F F C+ F F 29% 25% 46% C- F C- A+ B D A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 36% 14% 50% D- A+ D- A+ B A A+ A A+
0.90 40% 38% 17% -17 -1 0.65 30% 1.3 .38 16% .30 88% .26 0.77 39% 14% 28% -15 +1 0.74 34% 0.7 .25 22% .17 67% .11
Jan
19		 Drexel F F C D- F 36% 34% 30% D- F A D B C A D B+ B D F C+ D- 44% 25% 31% C D A+ F A B- A+ A+ A+
0.94 29% 38% 29% -13 -2 0.72 41% 0.9 .39 16% .40 71% .28 0.92 62% 50% 33% +4 0 1.10 8% 2.0 .15 21% .08 25% .02
Jan
22		 Elon B F+ F B+ F 31% 29% 41% D- F A+ C A+ A+ C A+ B A- B A+ C+ A- 37% 12% 51% B A- C A- B A D B- D+
1.22 47% 0% 40% -11 -2 0.78 50% 1.1 .57 8% .30 81% .24 1.00 53% 20% 33% -4 +1 0.95 33% 0.8 .27 22% .35 69% .24
Jan
24		 N.C. A&T D B- A+ F C- 35% 29% 37% D- D+ C- F F D A+ C A+ D F F D+ F 40% 16% 44% F F A B- A- B- F B+ F
1.02 61% 53% 26% +1 -1 1.02 26% 0.5 .13 15% .48 69% .33 1.12 72% 57% 35% +9 +1 1.22 22% 1.0 .22 21% .59 70% .41
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 UNC Wilmington B- D- A+ F B+ 37% 35% 27% D B F F F A+ A+ D- A+ F A+ F F F 24% 24% 52% B- F A- C B F D D D-
1.14 53% 72% 21% +5 -2 1.08 18% 0.8 .14 8% .39 70% .27 1.28 42% 58% 42% +8 -1 1.14 29% 1.1 .31 6% .40 75% .30
Jan
31		 Hampton A- A A A+ A+ 40% 30% 30% D- A+ D+ F F B+ B+ F C A+ A+ A D+ A+ 40% 25% 35% D A A+ A+ A+ F B- A+ A+
1.25 75% 47% 47% +15 -1 1.30 26% 0.5 .13 14% .44 60% .26 0.76 32% 25% 35% -13 0 0.75 24% 0.5 .11 14% .32 50% .16
Feb
7		 Hofstra F F C+ A+ F+ 39% 30% 32% C- D- D+ F F D- A- F C C A+ B F C 25% 33% 42% A C+ B- C C+ F+ C- C+ C
0.79 24% 38% 43% -9 -1 0.82 28% 0.3 .07 18% .37 58% .22 1.15 42% 31% 45% +1 -3 0.98 32% 1.1 .35 13% .30 75% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 2.7 4.3 3rd
4th 0.2 6.2 1.4 7.9 4th
5th 0.0 2.8 6.3 0.1 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 9.7 2.0 11.7 6th
7th 2.7 11.6 0.1 14.4 7th
8th 0.4 9.1 3.7 13.1 8th
9th 0.1 3.0 11.0 0.3 14.3 9th
10th 1.0 8.4 4.2 0.0 13.6 10th
11th 0.7 4.6 5.0 0.4 10.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.3 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.8 5.8 16.8 27.4 28.2 16.3 4.7 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 4.7% 13.9% 13.9% 13.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 4.0
10-8 16.3% 8.7% 8.7% 13.8 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 14.9
9-9 28.2% 5.1% 5.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 26.8
8-10 27.4% 4.6% 4.6% 15.0 0.1 0.9 0.2 26.1
7-11 16.8% 3.8% 3.8% 15.6 0.3 0.4 16.2
6-12 5.8% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 5.6
5-13 0.8% 0.8
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 14.4 94.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 13.0 16.9 64.6 18.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6%
Lose Out 0.4%